RIVER CITY SHARPS
Kansas State is used to playing in bowl games under HC Bill Snyder, but they will need a victory Saturday to make than another reality in Snyder’s final season for the Wildcats. The Wildcats lost their first six Big 12 games before back-to-back wins over Iowa State and Kansas. Snyder’s teams have always excelled in the underdog role and that’s where we get them on Saturday. Kansas State is 19-6 ATS over their last 25 games vs. teams with a winning record and they are a perfect 3-0 against the number in their last three outings vs. these Mountaineers. They are also 3-1 against the number is their last four games as a home dog. We really like this underdog spot for the Wildcats and wouldn’t be surprised at all to see an outright win. That said, we will gladly take those points as some insurance! The Sharps say…
4 Unit ♦Diamond Play♦ – Kansas State (+5.5
Kansas State is used to playing in bowl games under HC Bill Snyder, but they will need a victory Saturday to make than another reality in Snyder’s final season for the Wildcats. The Wildcats lost their first six Big 12 games before back-to-back wins over Iowa State and Kansas. Snyder’s teams have always excelled in the underdog role and that’s where we get them on Saturday. Kansas State is 19-6 ATS over their last 25 games vs. teams with a winning record and they are a perfect 3-0 against the number in their last three outings vs. these Mountaineers. They are also 3-1 against the number is their last four games as a home dog. We really like this underdog spot for the Wildcats and wouldn’t be surprised at all to see an outright win. That said, we will gladly take those points as some insurance! The Sharps say…
4 Unit ♦Diamond Play♦ – Kansas State (+5.5
By Greg Dempson
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans
My College football record at Every Edge stands at 9–3 ATS. Onto this week’s selection. The last time the Iowa Hawkeyes went undefeated during the regular season was back in 1922. Saturday night at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis, they will most certainly have an opportunity to play in the College Football Playoffs, if they can defeat the Michigan State Spartans.
When reviewing each teams SOS, (strength of schedule,) Michigan State clearly has played tougher opponents. The Spartans played the 26th toughest schedule while outscoring opponents 33.4 vs. 21.1 PPG. Michigan State’s YPG vs. other FBS foes is 5.6 ranking then #64. Michigan State has a defense that is ranked #15 and they held Ohio State to a season in rushing as well as the Michigan Wolverines.
As for Iowa they played the 59th SOS outscoring opponents by a margin of 33.7 vs. 18.7 PPG. The Hawkeyes YPG vs. other FBS teams is 4.6 for ranking of #66.
Each team is +13 PPG in Conference play but one glaring difference is the fact that Iowa didn’t face, Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State in the regular season. Michigan State were fortunate in their win vs. Michigan but got robbed by the officials in their lone loss at Nebraska. Iowa was badly outplayed at Northwestern, (outgained by 183 yards and held to 11 first downs vs. 22 by the Wildcats,) but the Hawkeyes were aided by +4 in the takeaway department.
View From the 50 Yard Line
· Working with various sets of power ratings I make Michigan State a minimum favorite of –4.5 points to a maximum favorite of –7 points.
· The past two seasons the Spartans are 9–0 ATS after winning four of five of their last six games.
· The Hawkeyes are 0–3 ATS in their last three vs. Michigan State.
· Michigan State lost to Nebraska 39–38 while Iowa won 28–20 but I note that Iowa allowed Nebraska to possess the ball for 36 minutes and the Cornhuskers out-yarded Iowa 433 to 250 yards.
· Michigan State held Penn State sack-less last week and the Nittany Lions were #1 in the nation in sacking opposing quarterbacks.
· The Hawkeyes defeated only four teams this season with a winning straight up record.
· I do like the Spartans in this game but I am focusing on the total rather than the side.
· Over/Under Angles
· The Spartans and the Hawkeyes are each 5–2 to the over in their last 7 games.
· The last four BIG–10 Championship games have sailed way over the total by almost 21 PPG.
· Michigan State is 35–13 to the over after covering four or five of their last six games.
· The past two seasons Iowa is 12–03 to the over after playing a conference game.
· The Spartans are 27–13 to the over after allowing 17 points (or less) in two straight games.
· In their four common opponents Michigan State outscored their opposition 34.5 to 23.3 while Iowa outscored their foes by a margin of 33.3 to 20.5. If you were to average those numbers your O/U would be almost 56 points.
College Football Pick
My Every Edge game of the Week is for Michigan State and Iowa to sail over 51 points.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans
My College football record at Every Edge stands at 9–3 ATS. Onto this week’s selection. The last time the Iowa Hawkeyes went undefeated during the regular season was back in 1922. Saturday night at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis, they will most certainly have an opportunity to play in the College Football Playoffs, if they can defeat the Michigan State Spartans.
When reviewing each teams SOS, (strength of schedule,) Michigan State clearly has played tougher opponents. The Spartans played the 26th toughest schedule while outscoring opponents 33.4 vs. 21.1 PPG. Michigan State’s YPG vs. other FBS foes is 5.6 ranking then #64. Michigan State has a defense that is ranked #15 and they held Ohio State to a season in rushing as well as the Michigan Wolverines.
As for Iowa they played the 59th SOS outscoring opponents by a margin of 33.7 vs. 18.7 PPG. The Hawkeyes YPG vs. other FBS teams is 4.6 for ranking of #66.
Each team is +13 PPG in Conference play but one glaring difference is the fact that Iowa didn’t face, Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State in the regular season. Michigan State were fortunate in their win vs. Michigan but got robbed by the officials in their lone loss at Nebraska. Iowa was badly outplayed at Northwestern, (outgained by 183 yards and held to 11 first downs vs. 22 by the Wildcats,) but the Hawkeyes were aided by +4 in the takeaway department.
View From the 50 Yard Line
· Working with various sets of power ratings I make Michigan State a minimum favorite of –4.5 points to a maximum favorite of –7 points.
· The past two seasons the Spartans are 9–0 ATS after winning four of five of their last six games.
· The Hawkeyes are 0–3 ATS in their last three vs. Michigan State.
· Michigan State lost to Nebraska 39–38 while Iowa won 28–20 but I note that Iowa allowed Nebraska to possess the ball for 36 minutes and the Cornhuskers out-yarded Iowa 433 to 250 yards.
· Michigan State held Penn State sack-less last week and the Nittany Lions were #1 in the nation in sacking opposing quarterbacks.
· The Hawkeyes defeated only four teams this season with a winning straight up record.
· I do like the Spartans in this game but I am focusing on the total rather than the side.
· Over/Under Angles
· The Spartans and the Hawkeyes are each 5–2 to the over in their last 7 games.
· The last four BIG–10 Championship games have sailed way over the total by almost 21 PPG.
· Michigan State is 35–13 to the over after covering four or five of their last six games.
· The past two seasons Iowa is 12–03 to the over after playing a conference game.
· The Spartans are 27–13 to the over after allowing 17 points (or less) in two straight games.
· In their four common opponents Michigan State outscored their opposition 34.5 to 23.3 while Iowa outscored their foes by a margin of 33.3 to 20.5. If you were to average those numbers your O/U would be almost 56 points.
College Football Pick
My Every Edge game of the Week is for Michigan State and Iowa to sail over 51 points.
GC: NCAAF Play
Huge conference Championship Saturday card has Systems cashing over 90% in all Football games. The Big conference championship 100% Game of the Year and rare 6* ACC Play goes at night along with 34-0 NBA 6* and NCAAB. college Football system play below
The College Football system Play is on Arkansas St. Game 310 at 3:00 eastern. Arkansas St should coast here. They have revenge and fit a solid system that plays on home teams that scored 150+ points in last 3 games. Texas St is 0-5 ats on the road and allows 520 yards per game on defense, they will get rolled like wholesale carpet today. Favorites of more than 21 points are 63-38 ATS when playing with revenge against a conference opponent with a losing record and Arkansas State applies to a 36-7 ATS subset of that system. Take Arkansas St. On Saturday there are 5 big College Football plays up in Championship action all from systems cashing over 90%, one is the Game of the Year, another is a rare 6* Jump on now and cash out as we conclude another big season in College Football. NCAAB and 6* 34-0 NBA Power system plays up too. For the Bonus Play we will lay the points with Arkansas St. GC
Huge conference Championship Saturday card has Systems cashing over 90% in all Football games. The Big conference championship 100% Game of the Year and rare 6* ACC Play goes at night along with 34-0 NBA 6* and NCAAB. college Football system play below
The College Football system Play is on Arkansas St. Game 310 at 3:00 eastern. Arkansas St should coast here. They have revenge and fit a solid system that plays on home teams that scored 150+ points in last 3 games. Texas St is 0-5 ats on the road and allows 520 yards per game on defense, they will get rolled like wholesale carpet today. Favorites of more than 21 points are 63-38 ATS when playing with revenge against a conference opponent with a losing record and Arkansas State applies to a 36-7 ATS subset of that system. Take Arkansas St. On Saturday there are 5 big College Football plays up in Championship action all from systems cashing over 90%, one is the Game of the Year, another is a rare 6* Jump on now and cash out as we conclude another big season in College Football. NCAAB and 6* 34-0 NBA Power system plays up too. For the Bonus Play we will lay the points with Arkansas St. GC
Steve Budin - CEO
Saturday's Play
The Cali-Cartel has a 50 Dime Play on Houston at home against Temple. The Cougars are -6 as I put my site live at 3:25 Eastern this morning. If this line moves to -7 or -7 1/2, then I would tell you to buy down the half-point insurance on Houston. But I don't anticipate such a move and there's no reason to do anything at the current price of -6.
Saturday's Play
The Cali-Cartel has a 50 Dime Play on Houston at home against Temple. The Cougars are -6 as I put my site live at 3:25 Eastern this morning. If this line moves to -7 or -7 1/2, then I would tell you to buy down the half-point insurance on Houston. But I don't anticipate such a move and there's no reason to do anything at the current price of -6.
WAYNE ROOT
Millionaires----Florida
___________________
No Limit---Air Force
When you are not used to the triple option, it can be a daunting task to stop it. That is what's ahead for the San Diego St Aztecs in the Mountain West Championship Game today. The Cadets know how to grind, control the tempo, chew up the clock and frustrate defenses. They racked up over 300 yards against Utah St and Boise. Few teams have seen anything like this offense and there is not enough time to prepare and practice for it. Defensively, Air Force has the linebackers to stop the weak passing attack if one can call it that. Count on the Aztecs to run the ball. Donnell Pumphrey is their go to man and will be eyed by the Falcons "D". He is all they have having racked up 100 yards + 12 times in a row. With Air Forces own ground game, they should be able to keep Pumphrey's off the field as the clock is managed correctly with a great game plan and play calling. This game has a 20-17 score written all over it. With the points, it will not make a difference which team scores 20.
____________________
Pinnacle---Iowa
It's number 4 vs number 5 with one of the 2 advancing to the series playoff bowl games. Iowa is clearly the better "all-around" team. They excel at defense to counter the Spartans minimal offense. The control the clock with the run and grind it out type tiring offense. Their special teams and the ability to return the ball is spectacular. The one area that the Spartans have up on the Hawkeyes is quarterback Connor Cook. The Hawkeyes will have to pay special attention as he will attempt to hook up with WR Aaron Burbridge who has more than a few 100 yard pass catching days. But, Iowa has the anecdote in all-American Desmond King. This match-up will clearly be Burbridge's most difficult test. This Iowa team may be the best in the Country in the "all-around" game. They play extremely focused. They manage the clock. They mass produce turn-overs. They rarely are penalized. And the grind it for 5 yards at a time. They will never beat themselves. Michigan St proved they could defeat Ohio St on the road. Then last week they had to defeat Penn St to get into this Championship game. Now they are where they and few expected them to be with the pressure to beat the little school that had the easy schedule. Pressure games have a way of allowing the underdog an equalizer resulting in upsets as will happen today
Millionaires----Florida
___________________
No Limit---Air Force
When you are not used to the triple option, it can be a daunting task to stop it. That is what's ahead for the San Diego St Aztecs in the Mountain West Championship Game today. The Cadets know how to grind, control the tempo, chew up the clock and frustrate defenses. They racked up over 300 yards against Utah St and Boise. Few teams have seen anything like this offense and there is not enough time to prepare and practice for it. Defensively, Air Force has the linebackers to stop the weak passing attack if one can call it that. Count on the Aztecs to run the ball. Donnell Pumphrey is their go to man and will be eyed by the Falcons "D". He is all they have having racked up 100 yards + 12 times in a row. With Air Forces own ground game, they should be able to keep Pumphrey's off the field as the clock is managed correctly with a great game plan and play calling. This game has a 20-17 score written all over it. With the points, it will not make a difference which team scores 20.
____________________
Pinnacle---Iowa
It's number 4 vs number 5 with one of the 2 advancing to the series playoff bowl games. Iowa is clearly the better "all-around" team. They excel at defense to counter the Spartans minimal offense. The control the clock with the run and grind it out type tiring offense. Their special teams and the ability to return the ball is spectacular. The one area that the Spartans have up on the Hawkeyes is quarterback Connor Cook. The Hawkeyes will have to pay special attention as he will attempt to hook up with WR Aaron Burbridge who has more than a few 100 yard pass catching days. But, Iowa has the anecdote in all-American Desmond King. This match-up will clearly be Burbridge's most difficult test. This Iowa team may be the best in the Country in the "all-around" game. They play extremely focused. They manage the clock. They mass produce turn-overs. They rarely are penalized. And the grind it for 5 yards at a time. They will never beat themselves. Michigan St proved they could defeat Ohio St on the road. Then last week they had to defeat Penn St to get into this Championship game. Now they are where they and few expected them to be with the pressure to beat the little school that had the easy schedule. Pressure games have a way of allowing the underdog an equalizer resulting in upsets as will happen today
StatFox Super Situations
NHL | WASHINGTON at WINNIPEG
Play Against - Any team against the money line (WASHINGTON) after scoring 3 goals or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 6 goals or more in their previous game
99-46 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.3% | 56.2 units )
7-2 this year. ( 77.8% | 4.9 units )
NHL | WASHINGTON at WINNIPEG
Play Against - Any team against the money line (WASHINGTON) after scoring 3 goals or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 6 goals or more in their previous game
99-46 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.3% | 56.2 units )
7-2 this year. ( 77.8% | 4.9 units )
StatFox Super Situations
NBA | PORTLAND at MINNESOTA
Play On - Any team (MINNESOTA) off a upset loss as a favorite against opponent off an upset win as a home underdog
70-33 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.0% | 33.7 units )
4-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 4.0 units )
NBA | NEW YORK at MILWAUKEE
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) averaging 48 or less rebounds/game on the season, on Saturday games
44-20 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.8% | 25.5 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.8 units )
NBA | NEW YORK at MILWAUKEE
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
NBA | PORTLAND at MINNESOTA
Play On - Any team (MINNESOTA) off a upset loss as a favorite against opponent off an upset win as a home underdog
70-33 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.0% | 33.7 units )
4-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 4.0 units )
NBA | NEW YORK at MILWAUKEE
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) averaging 48 or less rebounds/game on the season, on Saturday games
44-20 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.8% | 25.5 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.8 units )
NBA | NEW YORK at MILWAUKEE
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
StatFox Super Situations
CBB | PENNSYLVANIA at GEORGE MASON
Play Against - Home teams as a favorite or pick (GEORGE MASON) after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers
98-51 since 1997. ( 65.8% | 41.9 units )
CBB | KENT ST at CLEVELAND ST
Play Against - A road team vs. the money line (KENT ST) average shooting team (42.5-45%) against a terrible shooting team (<=40%), after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher
53-19 since 1997. ( 73.6% | 38.4 units )
CBB | NEW MEXICO ST at LONG BEACH ST
Play Against - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (LONG BEACH ST) team from a mid-major division 1-A conference against a team from a weak conference, playing only their 3rd game in a week
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )
CBB | PENNSYLVANIA at GEORGE MASON
Play Against - Home teams as a favorite or pick (GEORGE MASON) after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers
98-51 since 1997. ( 65.8% | 41.9 units )
CBB | KENT ST at CLEVELAND ST
Play Against - A road team vs. the money line (KENT ST) average shooting team (42.5-45%) against a terrible shooting team (<=40%), after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher
53-19 since 1997. ( 73.6% | 38.4 units )
CBB | NEW MEXICO ST at LONG BEACH ST
Play Against - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (LONG BEACH ST) team from a mid-major division 1-A conference against a team from a weak conference, playing only their 3rd game in a week
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )
StatFox Super Situations
CFB | AIR FORCE at SAN DIEGO ST
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (AIR FORCE) solid team - outgaining their opponents by 1 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games
233-120 over the last 10 seasons. ( 66.0% | 0.0 units )
33-15 this year. ( 68.8% | 0.0 units )
CFB | GEORGIA ST at GA SOUTHERN
Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is between 28.5 and 31.5 off a huge blowout win by 35 points or more over a conference rival
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
4-3 this year. ( 57.1% | 0.7 units )
CFB | AIR FORCE at SAN DIEGO ST
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (AIR FORCE) solid team - outgaining their opponents by 1 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games
233-120 over the last 10 seasons. ( 66.0% | 0.0 units )
33-15 this year. ( 68.8% | 0.0 units )
CFB | GEORGIA ST at GA SOUTHERN
Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is between 28.5 and 31.5 off a huge blowout win by 35 points or more over a conference rival
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
4-3 this year. ( 57.1% | 0.7 units )
GMC Selections
CFB
324 Stanford
CBB
727 Temple
721 Seton Hall
744 Gonzaga
797 Texas A&M
CFB
324 Stanford
CBB
727 Temple
721 Seton Hall
744 Gonzaga
797 Texas A&M
