O.C. Dooley Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, December 27, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: All football Best Bets right here are UNDEFEATED dating back to last Sunday's "5 Unit" NFL triumph. Not only did a personal Monday football PARLAY sweep (Packers-and-Under), but also an absolute Bowl gift on Christmas Eve when Notre Dame won by a resounding 28-POINT margin!! Both of the Bowl Best Bets have successfully COVERED the spread and this evening's Emerald Bowl (Miami/California) represe 12/27/2008
TONIGHT'S "4 UNIT" COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BET TOTAL (Miami at California UNDER 51 in an 8:05 eastern Emerald Bowl kickoff on ESPN): One of the many keys to this total has to do with the SUSPENSION of Miami's starting quarterback. The Hurricanes reserve signal caller is NOT 100% healthy which is an issue I will deal with later in this analysis segment. When one thinks of California, it normally has to do with head coach Jeff Tedford who has a reputation of being an offensive genius. But before this season even started Tedford relinquished his play calling duties, and also changed the Golden Bears DEFENSE from a "4-3" to a "3-4" allignment. The reason for the switch had to due with excellent depth at linebacker headed by All Pac-10 senior Zack Follett. The following may come as a shock to many of you but California actually has a TOP-15 national ranking in both SACKS and turnover margin. As you watch this evening's game on ESPN, you will notice that California's defense actually looks like those physical stop-units from the Southeastern Conference but with extra SPEED attached. The Golden Bears stop-unit actually reminds me of Boise State as a major portion of the betting public was not aware that statistically they were one of the better DEFENSES in the land. That Boise State/TCU clash turned out to be extremely low scoring and stayed way UNDER the total. Just like Boise State, we have a school participating tonight (California) that is much more known for offensive prowess, so I am going to take full advantage of this inflated total. California actually entered this season with a myriad of offensive question marks, including at the quarterback position where two-year starter Nate Longshore proved to be extremely inconsistant. I can confirm that Longshore will start behind center tonight, but the main catalyst of the offense is at RUNNING BACK where Jahvid Best led the entire Pac-10 Conference in total yards gained on the ground. It comes as no shock that California called a substantial amount of running plays this season because the explosive Best had the opportunity to run behind All-America center Alex Mack who at one point was considering an early jump to the NFL. To make a long story short, California has a completely new cast at the wide receiver position which is extremely young. Coming into the season, Cal's roster featured a grand total of just 12 career receptions, with 10 of those catches belonging to ONE player. Another key to this total has to do with the SUSPENSION of Miami starting quarterback Robert Mavre (academics). For those of you who may not be aware, Mavre broke Tim Tebow's state high school passing records and is an excellent prospect. Miami's reserve quarterback who actually split time under center is the same Jacory Harris who suffered an injury to his THROWING SHOULDER in the regular season finale. Of course with an extended period of time to heal that shoulder, Harris is feeling better but the bottom line is that he is still feeling pain when attempting to throw the DEEP pass which most likely will NOT be in Miami's plans this evening. I will admit that Harris completed 60% of his pass attempts and amassed 1,000 aerial yards, but that has only helped inflate tonight's total. Not only is Miami "green" at the quarterback slot, they have a new cast of wide receivers. Among the Hurricanes wideouts, only ONE caught more than 11 passes one year ago. Miami's lead rusher is Graig Cooper (778 total ground yards) who did NOT run for more than 52 yards in each of the most recent 3 outings. I will admit that the Miami defense hit a wall in the final two weeks of the regular season when they surrendered a grand total of 79 points in a pair of road losses, but that is not all that shocking considering that young teams tend to get a bit tired last in the regular campaign. That Miami defense which is littered with speed and athleticism has had plenty of time to re-charge the collective engine so to speak. Miami's best players are on DEFENSE led by linebacker Sean Spence who already has garnered a "conference rookie of the year" honor. Miami also has defensive end Marcus Robinson (9 tackles for loss) and defensive tackle Marcus Forston (3 sacks in final 3 regular season contests) who are both budding stars. My database research indicates that Miami is 22-9 UNDER long term when the posted total is between 49'-and-56 points. California is 18-5 UNDER after a game where 24+ first-half points were scored. But the big news is a massive 81-PERCENT SYSTEM (35-8 past decade in NON-Conference settings). This 81% system takes teams like Miami off consecutive ugly conference losses where they allowed 31+ points, UNDER the total. I mentioned earlier that California shockingly has one of the nation's better defense which just happens to be ranked #2 in the entire nation with 23 combined interceptions. I want to remind all of you about one of California's "step up" games this season in what turned out to be a very low scoring 17-3 final road verdict at Southern California. Due to that 81% angle which indicates we have an inflated spot, this in my mind is the "bowl system total of the year"