Cajun-Sports CFB Executive- Saturday
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL - FLORIDA CITRUS BOWL, ORLANDO, FLA.
DECEMBER 27, 4:30 PM EST – ESPN
5 STAR SELECTION
Wisconsin +6 over Florida State
The Badgers and Seminoles meet for the first-ever time ever on the gridiron Saturday afternoon, as they square off in one of the day’s 3 Bowl Games.
Wisconsin has been up and down this season, starting off fast, slumping in the middle and finishing strong. They were even ranked as high as ninth at one point before enduring a four-game losing streak. Still, the team ended the regular-season with three straight wins and avoided disaster by outlasting Cal Poly, 36-35, in overtime in its finale. With that near upset averted, the Badgers are now ready to make a bowl appearance for the seventh consecutive season.
As for Florida State, it is making its 27th straight bowl appearance, the longest active streak in the nation. The Seminoles limp into this bowl, having dropped three of their final five games, including a 45-15 setback to rival Florida in its regular-season finale.
The Badgers' chances of winning this game hinge greatly on their ability to run the ball and they have done so effectively for most of the season. Wisconsin is gaining 212 of its 404 total ypg on the ground and it has scored 31 of its 41 offensive touchdowns via the run. P.J. Hill leads this powerful ground game with over 1,000 yards and 13 TDs and the punishing back is averaging 4.8 yards per carry. John Clay has provided a nice complement to Hill and he checks in with 845 yards and nine scores behind an even better 5.9 yards per carry. Under center, the Badgers made the switch from Allan Evridge to Dustin Sherer after a 48-7 beating at the hands of Penn State in mid-October. With Florida State likely to focus on the run, Sherer is going to need to make some plays through the air if the Badgers hope to come out on top.
Wisconsin had some defensive issues, allowing 25 ppg, despite surrendering only 322 total ypg. The defense has fared well versus both the run and pass and has come up with 22 takeaways as well. The team has even notched 21 sacks. Where it has really struggled is in the red-zone, allowing foes to score 92% of the time.
The Seminoles improved greatly on their ground game this season and they are currently averaging 183 rushing ypg. Antone Smith heads the charge with 753 yards, while racking up 14 rushing TDs. The success on the ground was certainly needed, as the team had to overcome some inconsistent play from quarterback Christian Ponder, who threw 13 INTs against only 12 TDs.
On defense, Florida State has been extremely stingy this season, limiting its opponents to a mere 292 total ypg. The unit has been tough against the run as well as the pass, and has also had success bringing down opposing quarterbacks, racking up 36 sacks.
While the Badgers would love to ride their veteran offensive line and their pair of studly tailbacks from start to finish, QB Sherer gained confidence while starting the last six games. When Wisconsin's final few opponents loaded up the box and forced Sherer to beat them through the air, he was able to do it. He threw for 450 yards in Wisconsin's final two games after averaging 156 passing yards in his first four starts.
The Badgers were hit hard with injuries this season but will be getting some of those missing bodies back for this Bowl Game. S Jay Valai missed the regular-season finale, but he should be good to go here. WR Kyle Jefferson didn't play against Cal-Poly after the frightening hit he took in the Minnesota game the week before, but six weeks has been enough time to recover from a concussion. CB Mario Goins, who started a handful of games before missing three of the last five games with a pair of head injuries, is in the same boat as Jefferson.
Meanwhile, Bobby Bowden said Seminoles WR Preston Parker, who injured a knee and ankle against Florida, remains a question mark. FB Seddrick Holloway has practiced some this week and WRs Rod Owens and Taiwan Easterling have been hampered by injuries, so Florida State is a bit gimpy on offense.
Wisconsin was a slight favorite last year but came up short and they do want to go through another off-season with a Bowl loss on their minds. This is why we like to play ON a Bowl underdog that lost a Bowl game last year. Teams like to make the best of their time in the spotlight. In the case of a team that lost the previous year in a Bowl game the opportunity to erase the bitter taste of a Bowl defeat that has lasted a year can be a powerful motivator for a good effort, especially when the team seeking to reverse a defeat is made the underdog.
This is also a great time to play the Bowl dogs. Between Christmas and New Year’s Eve there is usually an over-confident favorite facing a motivated, quality underdog. We saw this on Friday in the Motor City Bowl and enjoyed an outright winner with Florida Atlantic knocking off Central Michigan IN Michigan.
One of our Bowl handicapping strategies we used in that game also applies here, as we like to play AGAINST a Bowl favorite that is playing at home or close to home in-state. The team may be overconfident and enjoying the local “red-carpet” a little too much. Without a trip to a new and interesting place, the game may lose the interest of the players. Meanwhile, the pointspread will provide the line value to the visiting team.
We note that underdogs of 4+ points are 6-0 ATS in Wisconsin’s last 6 qualifying Bowl Games.
Our SportsDataBase research shows that a non-conference loss to end the regular season after a conference victory has spelled disaster for Bowl teams under the conditions outlined in one of our NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS. It states:
Play AGAINST a Bowl team with 10-40 days rest off a non-conference SU loss in its last game and a conference SU win before that vs. an opponent off allowing less than 51 points.
Teams in this spot are now on an 0-9 SU & ATS run since 2000, despite being favored in 7 of the 9 qualifying games. Most striking is that these Bowlers have failed to cover the spread by 18 points per game on average.
Again, this game will likely be a case of Wisconsin's offense against the Seminoles' defense to determine this game. Wisconsin has made some strides with its offense, and can run the ball well behind a physical offensive line. The Seminoles have struggled to defend teams with huge offensive lines and a power running game.
The public simply can’t get enough money down on Florida State here. We believe it’s a combination of loving the Seminoles in the Sunshine State and hating a Big 10 team. Being the contrarians we are, we’ll happily fade the public and the “home” team, as we like the veteran to Badgers to save their season with not just a cover, but an outright upset victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WISCONSIN 27 FLORIDA STATE 24
EMERALD BOWL - AT&T PARK, SAN FRANCISCO
DECEMBER 27, 8 PM EST – ESPN
3 STAR SELECTION
Miami, FL +10 over California
The Golden Bears make the short trip across the Bay late Saturday, where they will take on the Hurricanes the day’s final Bowl Game. California finished strong by winning their last two regular-season games following back-to-back losses to USC and Oregon State that eliminated them from the Pac-10 title race.
For Miami, it is making a long trip across the country to participate in this game after stumbling down the stretch. The Hurricanes appeared to have the inside track to an ACC title following a five-game winning streak, but those dreams were shattered with losses at Georgia Tech and NC State in their last two games of the regular-season.
The Hurricanes have done a good job in scoring 28 ppg this season, especially when considering they are averaging a modest 327 total ypg. The team's ground game has lacked consistency, but is still gaining a decent 130 ypg, while the air attack is producing almost 200 ypg. Freshmen Jacory Harris and Robert Marve have split time under center all season, but Harris will get the nod this game, as Marve has been suspended for disciplinary reasons. On the season, Harris has completed 61% of his pass attempts for 1,001 yards, with 10 scores and 6 INTs. In the backfield, Graig Cooper has carried the load for Miami and he has rushed for 778 yards and four touchdowns.
Miami's defense has been sound for most of the season, holding opponents to just over 315 total ypg. The Hurricanes have been especially stout versus the pass, as they are limiting foes to just 169 ypg, while racking up 31 sacks on the year.
The Bears have displayed good balance between the run and pass this season, helping them average a solid 33 ppg. Leading the charge is tailback Jahvid Best, who ranks eighth in the nation with nearly 1,400 yards despite being slowed by injuries. He is averaging an eye-popping 8 yards per carry and has 13 TDs on the ground.
At quarterback, Kevin Riley and Nate Longshore have both seen extensive action this season and they have produced similar results. Longshore has passed for 930 yards and 9 TDs and gets the start here.
Defensively, the Bears have been rather strong for most of the season, as they are also holding opponents to only 315 total ypg. Cal has clamped down against the run, giving up only 122 ypg, and opponents are being held to just 3.2 yards per carry.
This is yet another Bowl Game in which the average sports fan will jump on the team playing close to home; however, we like the chances of the visitors keeping this game close.
First, Miami is very excited to be back in any Bowl Game after missing out last season.
Secondly, this is the best week of the Bowl season to take the points, as Christmas-New Year’s Eve underdogs are very strong. For every over-confident favorite, there's usually a motivated, quality underdog.
An NCAA Football Bowl POWER SYSTEM shows us that Bowl favorites and underdogs of less than 11 points have been under-valued coming off 2 road defeats, as the ‘Canes are here. It reads:
Play ON a Bowl team (not an underdog of 11+ points) off 2 road SU losses.
Under those simple parameters, these teams are an amazing 12-0 ATS since at least 1980, clubbing the pointspread by more than 2 TDs per game on average. The SportsDataBase only goes back to 1980, so the numbers may be even better than that.
In Bowl games involving a Pac-10 team, an underdog of more than a 4 points off a loss has been very strong. This is confirmed by another POWER SYSTEM that states simply:
Play ON a Pac-10/Pac-10 opponent Bowl underdog of more than 4 points off a SU loss.
Since 1997, these dogs are an incredible 17-0 ATS, while covering the spread by nearly 13 ppg on average! California qualified as the “Play AGAINST” team in 2005 vs. BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl and they indeed failed to cover the number.
As an underdog against the Pac-10, ACC Bowl teams have not only covered the spread but have won each game outright in a limited number of contests over the past 15+ seasons. Specifically, ACC Bowl underdogs not off a shutout SU win vs. Pac-10 opponents are 6-0 SU & ATS since 1991, crushing the spread by nearly 17 ppg on average! The most recent example was a Florida team coming out to the Emerald Bowl to face a California team, just as we have in this game. In that 2006 affair, the 3½-point underdog Seminoles blasted UCLA, 44-27.
A Bowl Game Handicapping strategy that applies here is to play AGAINST a big Bowl favorite that won its Bowl game last year. Teams tend to relax and lose their edge if they enjoyed a Bowl win the previous year. The bigger the win the previous Bowl game, whether by margin or meaningfulness, the harder it will be to capture that magic once again.
We even have a related Bowl POWER SYSTEM that is active here. It states:
Play AGAINST a road/neutral site Bowl favorite of more than 6 points that won its last Bowl Game and not off 4 favorite SU wins. Since 2003, these teams are a horrific 0-19 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 10 ppg on average.
We also like to play AGAINST a Bowl favorite that is playing at home or close to home in-state. The team may be overconfident and enjoying the local “red-carpet” a little too much. Without a trip to a new and interesting place, the game may lose the interest of the players. Meanwhile, the pointspread will provide the line value to the visiting team. Judging from the pre-game comments from the Bears players, over-confidence could certainly be a problem for Cal here.
They last time these teams met, it was a Hurricane blow out, qualifying the Golden Bears for yet another Bowl POWER SYSTEM, as Conference Championship and Bowl favorites and small underdogs have been disastrous when seeking revenge for a blowout loss and not off a single-digit victory in their last game. This POWER SYSTEM states:
Play AGAINST a Conference Championship/Bowl team (not an underdog of 6+ points) seeking revenge for a SU loss of 24+ points in the last matchup and not off a SU win of less than 10 points.
These revenge-minded teams have been absolute disasters, as they have gone 0-23 ATS since at least 1980, failing to cover the spread by more than 10 ppg on average. Ironically, Air Force was the “PLAY AGAINST” team when they faced Cal and suffered a SU & ATS loss. Now, it’s the Bears turn as the “PLAY AGAINST” team, as they were in that 2006 Las Vegas Bowl Game with BYU.
An over-confident Bears team is likely to be a little flat here, while the Hurricanes should be very motivated and stand a great chance of at least keeping this game in single digits.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CALIFORNIA 28 MIAMI, FL 24
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