Matt Fargo’s **ALL ACCESS** NBA SATURDAY *TRIPLE PLAY*
This game reminds me a lot of the Golden St./New Orleans game on Wednesday. New Jersey is horrible and currently playing some bad basketball so this is a good time to back the Nets. Just like taking the Warriors then, we are buying low tonight as this line is severely inflated yet the public is riding it out. There are a lot of +10.5 lines out there and just a week ago, the Nets were +12.5 against the Lakers and there is no way the Rockets are only two points worse than the Lakers. Houston is in a horrendous spot here as it is coming off a game in Orlando on Wednesday and has a game at Cleveland tomorrow. Despite losing to the Magic, I do not see the Rockets getting up for this one especially with the Cavaliers on deck. There certainly is not much good to say about New Jersey but winning in the NBA is about winning ugly and it does not get uglier than this. 8* New Jersey Nets
The wrong team is favored here or I should at least say that the Spurs should not be favored as this game should be in the pickem range. San Antonio was favored by eight points in the first meeting at home this season and the venue change should turn this one into a game right around even. Since that game, the Spurs have gone 9-5 while the Bucks have gone 4-11 so the teams have not been on equal ground but the schedule has had a lot to do with it. Also, Milwaukee has had some brutal losses as three of the last four defeats have come by three points or fewer including two one-point losses at home. You cannot ignore the fact that the Spurs are just 3-6 on the road which is a bad record and it also shows that only just over a third of the games have come away from home. The Spurs and the Lakers are the only two teams in the NBA to play fewer than 10 road games on the year. 8* Milwaukee Bucks
The thinking here will be that the Lakers bounce back from that huge loss against Cleveland on Christmas day but I think it is just the opposite. Obviously the Lakers are a great team but that defeat can linger as they were humbled pretty good and if anything, this will be a big letdown the day after. Add to that, Los Angeles is at Phoenix in two days. I played the Kings in their last game and they covered for 48 minutes but the problem is that the game went to overtime which no underdog bettor ever wants to see and Sacramento was outscored 13-0 by the Cavaliers. That can leave a lingering sting but they have had time to get over it and with another marquee team in town, the Kings will be up once again. They are 10-4 at home and they have been solid in these spots, going a percent 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss. The Lakers meanwhile are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss. Also, Sacramento is 10-3 ATS in its 13 games this season against teams averaging 99 or more ppg. 10* Sacramento Kings
This game reminds me a lot of the Golden St./New Orleans game on Wednesday. New Jersey is horrible and currently playing some bad basketball so this is a good time to back the Nets. Just like taking the Warriors then, we are buying low tonight as this line is severely inflated yet the public is riding it out. There are a lot of +10.5 lines out there and just a week ago, the Nets were +12.5 against the Lakers and there is no way the Rockets are only two points worse than the Lakers. Houston is in a horrendous spot here as it is coming off a game in Orlando on Wednesday and has a game at Cleveland tomorrow. Despite losing to the Magic, I do not see the Rockets getting up for this one especially with the Cavaliers on deck. There certainly is not much good to say about New Jersey but winning in the NBA is about winning ugly and it does not get uglier than this. 8* New Jersey Nets
The wrong team is favored here or I should at least say that the Spurs should not be favored as this game should be in the pickem range. San Antonio was favored by eight points in the first meeting at home this season and the venue change should turn this one into a game right around even. Since that game, the Spurs have gone 9-5 while the Bucks have gone 4-11 so the teams have not been on equal ground but the schedule has had a lot to do with it. Also, Milwaukee has had some brutal losses as three of the last four defeats have come by three points or fewer including two one-point losses at home. You cannot ignore the fact that the Spurs are just 3-6 on the road which is a bad record and it also shows that only just over a third of the games have come away from home. The Spurs and the Lakers are the only two teams in the NBA to play fewer than 10 road games on the year. 8* Milwaukee Bucks
The thinking here will be that the Lakers bounce back from that huge loss against Cleveland on Christmas day but I think it is just the opposite. Obviously the Lakers are a great team but that defeat can linger as they were humbled pretty good and if anything, this will be a big letdown the day after. Add to that, Los Angeles is at Phoenix in two days. I played the Kings in their last game and they covered for 48 minutes but the problem is that the game went to overtime which no underdog bettor ever wants to see and Sacramento was outscored 13-0 by the Cavaliers. That can leave a lingering sting but they have had time to get over it and with another marquee team in town, the Kings will be up once again. They are 10-4 at home and they have been solid in these spots, going a percent 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss. The Lakers meanwhile are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss. Also, Sacramento is 10-3 ATS in its 13 games this season against teams averaging 99 or more ppg. 10* Sacramento Kings
MREAST NBA SATURDAY UNDER THE RADAR
The Milwaukee Bucks have been very tough at home vs the good teams in the NBA. They have faced 5 winning teams at home, the Lakers,Blazers,Nuggets,Mavs, and Magic. The results of those 5 games show 2 wins, and 3 losses by a combined 5 points! They have not lost to any of these teams by more than 2 points. The road has not been kind to the Spurs as they enter this one just 3-6. This also fits into what I call the 10/10 system, that says to play on teams revenging a 10 point or greater loss, off a game tey lost by 10 or more as a favorite. This system is now 103-58 ATS the last dozen years in the NBA. The Bucks are the play in this one.
#713 SAN ANTONIO SPURS @ #714 MILWAUKEE BUCKS 8:30PM EST
PLAY PN #714 MILWAUKEE BUCKS +3 -110 FOR 3 UNITS
The Milwaukee Bucks have been very tough at home vs the good teams in the NBA. They have faced 5 winning teams at home, the Lakers,Blazers,Nuggets,Mavs, and Magic. The results of those 5 games show 2 wins, and 3 losses by a combined 5 points! They have not lost to any of these teams by more than 2 points. The road has not been kind to the Spurs as they enter this one just 3-6. This also fits into what I call the 10/10 system, that says to play on teams revenging a 10 point or greater loss, off a game tey lost by 10 or more as a favorite. This system is now 103-58 ATS the last dozen years in the NBA. The Bucks are the play in this one.
#713 SAN ANTONIO SPURS @ #714 MILWAUKEE BUCKS 8:30PM EST
PLAY PN #714 MILWAUKEE BUCKS +3 -110 FOR 3 UNITS
Fairway Jay
Best Bet: USC -8
Much will be made about USC’s potential lack of motivation for this contest, as the Trojans have been playing in premier bowl games each of the past seven years. Yet playing in their home state with a superior coach and motivator should be enough intangibles for the Trojans to roll. Once the players hit the field, USC will prove their class over what I feel is a much weaker Boston College outfit. USC has faced the superior schedule and offensive and defensive units. While the Trojans’ offense was lackluster at times, they still ran the ball for over 5.0 ypc. Boston College’s defense was solid for much of the year and that could technically keep them within striking distance,however,the offense is going to struggle against USC’s superior speed and strength. Boston College turned the ball over 24 times against less skilled and tal- ented teams and failed to score 20 points in any road contest this season.They also were gashed against their only two quality road opponents; at Clemson and Virginia Tech.The Eagles may be excited to face such a prestigious program but we see this matchup favoring USC across the board and a double-digit victory a likely result
Best Bet: USC -8
Much will be made about USC’s potential lack of motivation for this contest, as the Trojans have been playing in premier bowl games each of the past seven years. Yet playing in their home state with a superior coach and motivator should be enough intangibles for the Trojans to roll. Once the players hit the field, USC will prove their class over what I feel is a much weaker Boston College outfit. USC has faced the superior schedule and offensive and defensive units. While the Trojans’ offense was lackluster at times, they still ran the ball for over 5.0 ypc. Boston College’s defense was solid for much of the year and that could technically keep them within striking distance,however,the offense is going to struggle against USC’s superior speed and strength. Boston College turned the ball over 24 times against less skilled and tal- ented teams and failed to score 20 points in any road contest this season.They also were gashed against their only two quality road opponents; at Clemson and Virginia Tech.The Eagles may be excited to face such a prestigious program but we see this matchup favoring USC across the board and a double-digit victory a likely result
LARRY NESS
REASON FOR PICK: My TV Dominator is on Chicago at 8:00 ET. Given the Bulls history (they'd previously fired two coaches over Xmas) and due to a couple of trying recent losses, including having blown a 35 point lead vs. Sacramento, Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro had reason to be worried about his job over Christmas. Del Negro's job still isn't exactly secure but the fact that he lasted through Christmas is a minor vote of confidence. Either way, this is a good spot for his team to bounce back with a badly needed victory. Even after Monday's meltdown, the Bulls are still 8-6 at home. Now they'll face a Hornets team which can't win outside of New Orleans - the Hornets have the worst road record (2-11) in the entire Western Conference. The Bulls had their way with the Hornets last season. They won 107-93 at New Orleans last February. That was followed by a 97-79 romp at Chicago on 3/14. Listed as 2 point dogs, the Bulls led by 14 at halftime and cruised to the easy win. More of the same here with the Hornets road woes continuing for another day. *9 Chicago
REASON FOR PICK: The Suns enter tonight's game in Oakland on a six-game road losing streak while the Warriors will take an overall seven-game losing streak into the contest. The Suns ended a two-game home losing streak with a dominating 124-93 Christmas night win over the Clippers, as seven players scored in double digits and the Suns made 12-of-24 three-pointers. However, the Suns are 0-6 away from home since a 113-94 win at Toronto on November 29. After losing the first three games of their current road slide by an average of 21.3 PPG, the Suns have lost the most recent three games by a total of just 10 points. The injury-riddled Warriors are 1-5-1 ATS in their seven-game slide and used just seven players in their most recent game, a 108-102 loss at New Orleans on Wednesday. Center Biedrins (11.9-11.2 last year) is expected back for this game and that's great news for the Warriors. Azubuike and Bell may not play at all the rest of the season plus Moore, Turiaf and Wright all remain sidelined. However, the Warriors are getting excellent play from their backcourt, featuring Ellis (25.0-4.3-5.0), Morrow (12.1), rookie Curry (12.1-4.8 APG) and Watson (8.9). The frontcourt is 'thin' but Maggette (17.0-5.6) has been healthy, Randolph (11.4-6.5) has been consistent and Radmanovic (7.0-4.9) has been serviceable. The Suns welcomed sixth-man Barbosa (12 points) back last night and with good reason. Phoenix was 4-8 in the 12 games he missed, while with last night's win, moved them to 14-3 with him available. All five Phoenix starters average in double figures, led by Stoudemire (20.5-8.7) and Nash (18.1-11.3 APG). The Suns are the league's highest scoring team (109.0 PPG) and its best shooting one (49.5% FGs / 42.24% on threes) while the Warriors are allowing a league-high 111.8 PPG and 49.1% on FG attempts. Does that spell doom for Golden St in this game? Maybe, but I'm taking a shot with the Warriors who are well-rested while the Suns are traveling off last night's win and let's NOT forget the team's six-game road losing streak. If Biedrins plays, I really like the Warriors. Take the points.
REASON FOR PICK: My TV Dominator is on Chicago at 8:00 ET. Given the Bulls history (they'd previously fired two coaches over Xmas) and due to a couple of trying recent losses, including having blown a 35 point lead vs. Sacramento, Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro had reason to be worried about his job over Christmas. Del Negro's job still isn't exactly secure but the fact that he lasted through Christmas is a minor vote of confidence. Either way, this is a good spot for his team to bounce back with a badly needed victory. Even after Monday's meltdown, the Bulls are still 8-6 at home. Now they'll face a Hornets team which can't win outside of New Orleans - the Hornets have the worst road record (2-11) in the entire Western Conference. The Bulls had their way with the Hornets last season. They won 107-93 at New Orleans last February. That was followed by a 97-79 romp at Chicago on 3/14. Listed as 2 point dogs, the Bulls led by 14 at halftime and cruised to the easy win. More of the same here with the Hornets road woes continuing for another day. *9 Chicago
REASON FOR PICK: The Suns enter tonight's game in Oakland on a six-game road losing streak while the Warriors will take an overall seven-game losing streak into the contest. The Suns ended a two-game home losing streak with a dominating 124-93 Christmas night win over the Clippers, as seven players scored in double digits and the Suns made 12-of-24 three-pointers. However, the Suns are 0-6 away from home since a 113-94 win at Toronto on November 29. After losing the first three games of their current road slide by an average of 21.3 PPG, the Suns have lost the most recent three games by a total of just 10 points. The injury-riddled Warriors are 1-5-1 ATS in their seven-game slide and used just seven players in their most recent game, a 108-102 loss at New Orleans on Wednesday. Center Biedrins (11.9-11.2 last year) is expected back for this game and that's great news for the Warriors. Azubuike and Bell may not play at all the rest of the season plus Moore, Turiaf and Wright all remain sidelined. However, the Warriors are getting excellent play from their backcourt, featuring Ellis (25.0-4.3-5.0), Morrow (12.1), rookie Curry (12.1-4.8 APG) and Watson (8.9). The frontcourt is 'thin' but Maggette (17.0-5.6) has been healthy, Randolph (11.4-6.5) has been consistent and Radmanovic (7.0-4.9) has been serviceable. The Suns welcomed sixth-man Barbosa (12 points) back last night and with good reason. Phoenix was 4-8 in the 12 games he missed, while with last night's win, moved them to 14-3 with him available. All five Phoenix starters average in double figures, led by Stoudemire (20.5-8.7) and Nash (18.1-11.3 APG). The Suns are the league's highest scoring team (109.0 PPG) and its best shooting one (49.5% FGs / 42.24% on threes) while the Warriors are allowing a league-high 111.8 PPG and 49.1% on FG attempts. Does that spell doom for Golden St in this game? Maybe, but I'm taking a shot with the Warriors who are well-rested while the Suns are traveling off last night's win and let's NOT forget the team's six-game road losing streak. If Biedrins plays, I really like the Warriors. Take the points.
Wunderdog Horse Selections:
AQUEDUCT Race #2 at 12:55 PM Eastern
AQUEDUCT Race #2 at 12:55 PM Eastern
Top pick: #3 (QUIESCENT HIT) - Cuts-back in distance and goes turf-to-dirt for the Bruce Levine barn. Colt by "Smart Strike" ran well two back at this level and distance as he tired after showing some fine early speed. The top pick.
<!--p-->2nd pick: #2 (Overcommunication) - Firster by "Unbridled's Song" is working both fast and frequently for his debut. In the Pletcher barn and Dominguez is aloft. Win candidate.
3rd pick: #5 (Rule by Night) - First-timer by "Malibu Moon" is in the top barn of Steve Asmussen. Works are adequate for a trainer who doesn't ask for much in the mornings. He'll probably sneak off at a square price.
4th pick: #6 (Cole T) - Speedy sort has finished close-up in his last pair (both in New York-bred maiden races). He'll need to run faster today for more than a minor award.
Scott Spreitzer's NBA ROAD WARRIOR **GAME OF THE YEAR!** [/b] [/i] (3-0) - Sat.
I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Saurday night. I had the Spurs in their most recent game, an outright home loss to the banged-up and schedule-challenged Trailblazers. At no point in the game did San Antone look like they were going to win the contest, let alone cover a decent-sized spread. I didn't think anyone could be as "steamed" as I was following that game until I saw Gregg Popovich blow his stack. He was especially upset at the fact that his team couldn't secure a defensive rebound late in the game while trailing by two points. The Spurs had won six of seven games before losing to the injury-riddled Blazers. But as Manu Ginobili said, it's now time to beat a good team. Milwaukee is an "okay" team, but I don't quite agree with Manu's review of the Bucks. However, his statement means this team is preparing for this one in the right manner. Milwaukee enters the game 12-15 overall. That's a good sign for Spurs-backers. San Antone is 2-10 against winning teams, but have won 13 straight against sub-.500 squads. The Spurs crushed the Bucks, 112-98 in their November 23 meeting. They handled Milwaukee without any trouble, despite a mediocre game from Richard Jefferson, and Ginobili didn't even play. I had San Antone in that contest and stated that the Bucks were not as good as their 8-3 start indicated. They have since won just four of 16 games. The Spurs still don't have Matt Bonner, but it won't matter in this one. Keeping the Spurs focused will be their recent loss to Portland and the fact that Milwaukee has had success against San Antone over the last decade. The Spurs are also on an 80% winning spread run against teams with a losing record. It's "step-up" time for the Spurs, and I believe this team is ready to rock someone. The Bucks just happen to be the opposition. I'm laying the points with San Antonio, my Road Warrior Game of the Year. Thanks! GL! Scott.
I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Saurday night. I had the Spurs in their most recent game, an outright home loss to the banged-up and schedule-challenged Trailblazers. At no point in the game did San Antone look like they were going to win the contest, let alone cover a decent-sized spread. I didn't think anyone could be as "steamed" as I was following that game until I saw Gregg Popovich blow his stack. He was especially upset at the fact that his team couldn't secure a defensive rebound late in the game while trailing by two points. The Spurs had won six of seven games before losing to the injury-riddled Blazers. But as Manu Ginobili said, it's now time to beat a good team. Milwaukee is an "okay" team, but I don't quite agree with Manu's review of the Bucks. However, his statement means this team is preparing for this one in the right manner. Milwaukee enters the game 12-15 overall. That's a good sign for Spurs-backers. San Antone is 2-10 against winning teams, but have won 13 straight against sub-.500 squads. The Spurs crushed the Bucks, 112-98 in their November 23 meeting. They handled Milwaukee without any trouble, despite a mediocre game from Richard Jefferson, and Ginobili didn't even play. I had San Antone in that contest and stated that the Bucks were not as good as their 8-3 start indicated. They have since won just four of 16 games. The Spurs still don't have Matt Bonner, but it won't matter in this one. Keeping the Spurs focused will be their recent loss to Portland and the fact that Milwaukee has had success against San Antone over the last decade. The Spurs are also on an 80% winning spread run against teams with a losing record. It's "step-up" time for the Spurs, and I believe this team is ready to rock someone. The Bucks just happen to be the opposition. I'm laying the points with San Antonio, my Road Warrior Game of the Year. Thanks! GL! Scott.
MR A'S
Saturday, December 26th, 2009 1:00 PM EST.
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6) vs. Ohio University Bobcats (9-4)
Ford Field - Detroit, Michigan
Marshall dropped three of their last four games to end this regular season and is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings versus the Bobcats. The home team in this series is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Oddsmakers: Ohio as a -3 point favorite with the total listed at 49 'over'.
Ohio University Bobcats -3
Saturday, December 26th, 2009 4:30 PM EST.
Meineke Car Care Bowl
(17) Pittsburgh Panthers (9-3) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4)
Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, North Carolina
Should be a close battle. The Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog
Oddsmakers: Pittsburgh as a -2½ point favorite with the total listed at 45 'over'.
North Carolina Tar Heels +2½
Saturday, December 26th, 2009 8:00 PM EST.
Emerald Bowl
Boston College Eagles (8-4) vs. U-S-C Trojans (8-4)
Site: AT&T Park - San Francisco, California
USC had a disappointing season and will not be in a BCS Bowl for the first time since 2001, but has the talent to beat the Eagles. The Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
Oddsmakers: U-S-C as a -7½ point favorite with the total listed at 45 'over'.
U-S-C Trojans -7½
Saturday, December 26th, 2009 1:00 PM EST.
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6) vs. Ohio University Bobcats (9-4)
Ford Field - Detroit, Michigan
Marshall dropped three of their last four games to end this regular season and is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings versus the Bobcats. The home team in this series is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Oddsmakers: Ohio as a -3 point favorite with the total listed at 49 'over'.
Ohio University Bobcats -3
Saturday, December 26th, 2009 4:30 PM EST.
Meineke Car Care Bowl
(17) Pittsburgh Panthers (9-3) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4)
Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, North Carolina
Should be a close battle. The Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog
Oddsmakers: Pittsburgh as a -2½ point favorite with the total listed at 45 'over'.
North Carolina Tar Heels +2½
Saturday, December 26th, 2009 8:00 PM EST.
Emerald Bowl
Boston College Eagles (8-4) vs. U-S-C Trojans (8-4)
Site: AT&T Park - San Francisco, California
USC had a disappointing season and will not be in a BCS Bowl for the first time since 2001, but has the talent to beat the Eagles. The Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
Oddsmakers: U-S-C as a -7½ point favorite with the total listed at 45 'over'.
U-S-C Trojans -7½
