WAYNE ROOT
MILLIONAIRES---UTAH ST
NO LIMIT CLUB---WASHINGTON REDSKINS
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PERFECT PLAY---WESTERN MICHIGAN
Right now Western Michigan is reeling from a 31-21 loss to the NIU Huskies and desperately searching to turn things around at the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl against the 9-3 Air Force Falcons. The Western Michigan broncos are a pass first team behind the arm of Zach Terrell. Terrell has completed 231 passes for 3,146 yards and 23 scores. Terrell has been able to spread the defense thin when he gets a chance to go deep. Expect to see him try and throw early and often. The throwing of Western Michigan and the rushing attack of the Cadets keep this game going back and forth but in the end, a few more passes caught will be the difference maker.
TAKE W. MICHIGAN
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INNER CIRCLE---COLORADO STATE.....OPENING WEEK BOWL GAME OF YEAR
The Colorado State Rams are heading out to the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl to take on the #22 ranked Utah Utes. Colorado State is 10-2 on the year with 6 wins coming from within their division. The Colorado State Rams are a vertical threat with the capability to blow out their opponent on any given night. The Rams average 326 passing yards per game which has led to almost 40 total points every time out. QB Garrett Grayson has thrown for almost 4,000 yards with 32 scores. The Utes rely on QB Travis Wilson to try and open things up with both his arms and his legs. Wilson has thrown for over 2,000 yards with 17 scores to go along with 218 yards on the ground. The Utes are 91st in the league in passing yards and 59th in points per game. Utah has struggled to score all year long and it has come down to the fact that they have no huge playmaker. That has been their downfall most in all their losses. That's why as an underdog, Utah is a good play during the season. But today, they are a favorite and that's not a good role for them. TAKE COLORADO ST
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Pinnacle---SAN FRANCISCO
First of all, let's put one thing behind us. The 49er's will play hard tonight; coaching problems or not. The players are pros. 35 to 45% of the players will be let go during the off-season so they are playing for their jobs. Add into the fact that there may be a new coaching staff makes them play even harder. With that being said, San Diego is not a good team. Coming off of two straight losses to quality competition, the Chargers will look to ease their pain but San Fran will not go away.
The Chargers are 11th in the league in passing yards per game but they haven't truly been a passing threat in at least four or five games. Philip Rivers is doing his best Dr. Jekyl impression and the results are less than stellar. Add to that fact injuries to Ryan Mathews and Keenan Allen and you might be spelling out a potential disaster Saturday night. The Niners franchise is crumbling as San Francisco loses its leader Coach Harbaugh is rumored to be on the way out the door. Nothing like a win tonight to really throw a wrench back at the 49ers management. TAKE SAN FRANCISCO
MILLIONAIRES---UTAH ST
NO LIMIT CLUB---WASHINGTON REDSKINS
____________________________________
PERFECT PLAY---WESTERN MICHIGAN
Right now Western Michigan is reeling from a 31-21 loss to the NIU Huskies and desperately searching to turn things around at the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl against the 9-3 Air Force Falcons. The Western Michigan broncos are a pass first team behind the arm of Zach Terrell. Terrell has completed 231 passes for 3,146 yards and 23 scores. Terrell has been able to spread the defense thin when he gets a chance to go deep. Expect to see him try and throw early and often. The throwing of Western Michigan and the rushing attack of the Cadets keep this game going back and forth but in the end, a few more passes caught will be the difference maker.
TAKE W. MICHIGAN
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INNER CIRCLE---COLORADO STATE.....OPENING WEEK BOWL GAME OF YEAR
The Colorado State Rams are heading out to the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl to take on the #22 ranked Utah Utes. Colorado State is 10-2 on the year with 6 wins coming from within their division. The Colorado State Rams are a vertical threat with the capability to blow out their opponent on any given night. The Rams average 326 passing yards per game which has led to almost 40 total points every time out. QB Garrett Grayson has thrown for almost 4,000 yards with 32 scores. The Utes rely on QB Travis Wilson to try and open things up with both his arms and his legs. Wilson has thrown for over 2,000 yards with 17 scores to go along with 218 yards on the ground. The Utes are 91st in the league in passing yards and 59th in points per game. Utah has struggled to score all year long and it has come down to the fact that they have no huge playmaker. That has been their downfall most in all their losses. That's why as an underdog, Utah is a good play during the season. But today, they are a favorite and that's not a good role for them. TAKE COLORADO ST
_______________________________________
Pinnacle---SAN FRANCISCO
First of all, let's put one thing behind us. The 49er's will play hard tonight; coaching problems or not. The players are pros. 35 to 45% of the players will be let go during the off-season so they are playing for their jobs. Add into the fact that there may be a new coaching staff makes them play even harder. With that being said, San Diego is not a good team. Coming off of two straight losses to quality competition, the Chargers will look to ease their pain but San Fran will not go away.
The Chargers are 11th in the league in passing yards per game but they haven't truly been a passing threat in at least four or five games. Philip Rivers is doing his best Dr. Jekyl impression and the results are less than stellar. Add to that fact injuries to Ryan Mathews and Keenan Allen and you might be spelling out a potential disaster Saturday night. The Niners franchise is crumbling as San Francisco loses its leader Coach Harbaugh is rumored to be on the way out the door. Nothing like a win tonight to really throw a wrench back at the 49ers management. TAKE SAN FRANCISCO
StatFox Super Situations
NHL | CALGARY at VANCOUVER
Play On - Home Favorites against the money line (VANCOUVER) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season
50-7 since 1997. ( 87.7% | 38.9 units )
NHL | FLORIDA at PITTSBURGH
Play On - Any team against the money line (PITTSBURGH) off a home win where they shut out their opponent, with a winning record in the first half of the season
92-29 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.0% | 53.7 units )
17-6 this year. ( 73.9% | 8.5 units )
NHL | CALGARY at VANCOUVER
Play On - Home Favorites against the money line (VANCOUVER) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season
50-7 since 1997. ( 87.7% | 38.9 units )
NHL | FLORIDA at PITTSBURGH
Play On - Any team against the money line (PITTSBURGH) off a home win where they shut out their opponent, with a winning record in the first half of the season
92-29 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.0% | 53.7 units )
17-6 this year. ( 73.9% | 8.5 units )
StatFox Super Situations
NBA | INDIANA at DENVER
Play Over - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 in a game involving two poor shooting teams (41.5-43.5%)
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
6-4 this year. ( 60.0% | 1.6 units )
NBA | INDIANA at DENVER
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (DENVER) well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season
84-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.4% | 40.1 units )
8-3 this year. ( 72.7% | 2.9 units )
NBA | INDIANA at DENVER
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%), on Saturday games
60-28 since 1997. ( 68.2% | 29.2 units )
NBA | INDIANA at DENVER
Play Over - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 in a game involving two poor shooting teams (41.5-43.5%)
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
6-4 this year. ( 60.0% | 1.6 units )
NBA | INDIANA at DENVER
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (DENVER) well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season
84-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.4% | 40.1 units )
8-3 this year. ( 72.7% | 2.9 units )
NBA | INDIANA at DENVER
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%), on Saturday games
60-28 since 1997. ( 68.2% | 29.2 units )
StatFox Super Situations
CBB | LOUISVILLE at W KENTUCKY
Play On - Road favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (LOUISVILLE) an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
CBB | SYRACUSE at VILLANOVA
Play Against - Any team (VILLANOVA) hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%)
82-82 over the last 5 seasons. ( 50.0% | 50.0 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.0 units )
CBB | WAKE FOREST at FLORIDA
Play On - Favorites of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (FLORIDA) an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points or more
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
4-1 this year. ( 80.0% | 2.9 units )
CBB | LOUISVILLE at W KENTUCKY
Play On - Road favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (LOUISVILLE) an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
CBB | SYRACUSE at VILLANOVA
Play Against - Any team (VILLANOVA) hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%)
82-82 over the last 5 seasons. ( 50.0% | 50.0 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.0 units )
CBB | WAKE FOREST at FLORIDA
Play On - Favorites of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (FLORIDA) an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points or more
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
4-1 this year. ( 80.0% | 2.9 units )
StatFox Super Situations
CFB | NC STATE at UCF
Play On - Any team (UCF) poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
CFB | NC STATE at UCF
Play On - All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NC STATE) off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog, with a winning record on the season
39-17 since 1997. ( 69.6% | 0.0 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
CFB | NOTRE DAME at LSU
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 25 to 28 after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game
29-8 over the last 10 seasons. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% | -2.2 units )
CFB | NC STATE at UCF
Play On - Any team (UCF) poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
CFB | NC STATE at UCF
Play On - All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NC STATE) off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog, with a winning record on the season
39-17 since 1997. ( 69.6% | 0.0 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
CFB | NOTRE DAME at LSU
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 25 to 28 after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game
29-8 over the last 10 seasons. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% | -2.2 units )
Dr. Bob :
I have finalized the math and written up the first 3 of Saturday's Bowl games and have just one lean (on Colorado State). I am going to get a few hours of sleep but I'll work on the other two Saturday Bowl games and hopefully have those to you by early afternoon. I won't have a Best Bet on either of those games either and I'm not even sure which way I lean yet. The next batch of Best Bets will be released on Monday or Tuesday.
College Football Analysis by Dr. Bob
Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.
I’ve released 3 Best Bets so far:
Miami-Florida (-1.5) 3-Stars at -2.5 or less, 2-Stars at -3.
Boise State (+4) 2-Stars at +3 or more.
UNDER (60.5) Illinois-LA Tech 1-Star UNDER 59 or higher
Nevada (-1) 32 UL LAFAYETTE 30
Sat Dec-20-2014 at 08:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 201 Over/Under 61.0
Louisiana Lafayette is representing the Sun Belt Conference in the New Orleans bowl for the 4th consecutive year and the Ragin’ Cajuns have made the mostly supportive fans happy with 3 consecutive wins (and spread wins). UL Lafayette certainly could make it 4 for 4 in a battle of two teams that are pretty evenly matched from the line of scrimmage and both have veteran senior quarterbacks at the helm. However, Nevada has the edge in special teams and that extra field position could be the difference in the close game.
Nevada’s offense is led by 4 year starting quarterback Cody Fajardo, who has easily had his worst season of an otherwise very good collegiate career. Fajardo has been an above average quarterback the last 3 seasons but this season he averaged just 5.6 yards per pass play while facing teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Fajardo also threw 11 interceptions, which isn’t horrible, but it’s a lot for a guy that had thrown an average of just 6 interceptions over the first 3 years of his career. Fajardo shouldn’t have any interception issues against a UL Lafayette defense that allows 66% completions and picked off just 7 passes on 414 opponent’s pass attempts during the regular season. The Ragin’ Cajuns allowed 7.3 yards per pass play this season to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.7 yppp against an average quarterback and that bad number is despite a better than average pass rush (2.5 sacks per game). Fajardo is an elusive quarterback that doesn’t get sacked often and he should post pretty good aerial numbers in this game while also leading a good ground attack (223 yards at 5.4 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team) that should have no trouble gaining yards against a sub-par ULL defensive front that allowed 5.3 yprp this season to teams that would combine to average just 4.6 yprp against an average defensive team. Overall, Nevada’s offense rates at 0.3 yards per play worse than average while Lafayette’s defense is 1.1 yppl worse than average. Nevada is projected to gain 433 yards at 6.4 yppl in this game (with half a normal home field advantage applied in favor of ULL).
UL Lafayette’s veteran quarterback Terrance Broadway is in his third and final season leading the Ragin’ Cajuns and he also had his worst season by far after two very good campaigns after transferring from Houston. Broadway averaged over 9 yards per pass attempt in each of the last two seasons but that average dipped to 6.7 ypa and he averaged only 5.8 yards per pass play (which includes sacks) against FBS teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback. Not having the services of top WR Jamal Robinson most of the season certain affected Broadway, as Robinson averaged 9.8 yards per pass thrown to him last season (862 yards on 88 targets) and he averaged 12.4 yards on the 21 passes that Broadway threw to him (he caught 15 of them) this season while the other wide receivers combined to average just 7.0 yards per pass attempt. UL Lafayette’s very good rushing attack (239 yards at 6.0 yprp against teams that would allow 5.3 yprp) helped make up for the less efficient pass attack and overall the Ragin’ Cajuns’ attack rates at 0.1 yards per play better than average. That unit is projected to rack up 433 yards at 6.3 yppl against a sub-par Nevada defense that is 0.5 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) and is equally bad against the run and pass.
Both teams should move the ball well and in fact are each projected to gain 433 yards by my model. Nevada has an edge in special teams and is a bit less likely to turn the ball over and overall the math favors the Wolf Pack by 3 ½ points with Lafayette receiving half a standard home field advantage for playing this game in nearby New Orleans. The Ragin Cajun’s certainly have taken advantage of the home cooking the last 3 years so perhaps a full home field edge is justified, in which case I get Nevada by 2 points (with a total of 61 ½ points). I have no opinion on the side or the total in this game.
Utah State (-10) 28 Texas El Paso 17
Sat Dec-20-2014 at 11:20 AM Pacific Rotation: 204 Over/Under 46.0
UTEP applies to a 54-8-2 ATS big underdog bowl situation but that situation works because the big favorite usually isn’t that interested in a minor bowl game against an inferior opponents. That doesn’t appear to be the case here, as Utah State head coach Matt Wells and his senior leaders have said that they’re hungry for a win to secure their 10th win and atone for what they thought was a down season and to atone for the season ending 19-50 loss at Boise State. If Utah State plays their normal game then the Aggies should win by double-digits.
Utah State started the season slowly with veteran quarterback Chuckie Keeton struggling but the offense perked up when Keeton was injured and Darell Garretson took over behind center. I had a Best Bet on Utah State in Garretson’s first start against BYU and the Aggies started a run of 3 straight spread wins with Garretson at the helm with a 35-20 win as a 21 point dog to BYU. Injuries to Garretson and 3rd string quarterback Craig Harrison led to freshman Kent Myers burning his redshirt and starting the final 5 games of the regular season. Myers is an accurate passer (69% completions) and a very good runner (299 yards on just 32 runs) and the Aggies offense has also received a boost by running more fly sweeps with dangerous wide receiver JoJo Natson, who averaged 10.2 yards on his 45 runs this season and ran 17 times in the last 4 games. Myers mostly settles for short passes to help move the chains and the combination of accurate passing and an enhanced rushing attack has led to Utah State being 0.8 yards per play better than average offensively in Myers’ 5 starts, which is better than their +0.1 yppl season rating. That attack is projected to gain 378 yards at 7.2 yppl in this game against a horrible UTEP defense that has given up 6.4 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average only 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. UTEP doesn’t defend the run well (5.8 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yprp against an average team) and the Miners take a lot of chances in their secondary, which leads a good percentage of interceptions but also to a lot of big pass plays (15.0 yards per completion allowed).
UTEP isn’t quite as bad offensively but the Miners are 0.7 yppl worse than average on the attack side of the ball (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) and were limited to just 3.4 yppl in their two games against better than average defensive teams Kansas State and Louisiana Tech. Utah State’s defense has allowed just 4.8 yppl and 20.8 points per game this season (against teams that would average 5.3 yppl and 25.5 points against an average defensive team) and the Aggies should have no trouble containing UTEP’s poor attack. In fact, the math projects only 295 yards at 4.5 yppl for the Miners in this game.
Utah State has a huge edge from a yards per play perspective, as they are projected to average 7.2 yppl to UTEP’s 4.5 yppl. However, Utah State is a big play offense and UTEP’s defense gives up big plays, which should mean that the Aggies run far fewer plays. That’s built into the model, which projects UTEP with a +13 play differential in this game, but overall the Aggies have a huge edge from the line of scrimmage and a solid edge in special teams. Neither quarterback throws interceptions, as Myers had just 2 in 5-plus games and UTEP’s Jameill Showers threw just 5 interceptions in 12 regular season games. That math would have favored Utah State by 12 points using season stats but the Aggies are better offensively with Myers than they are overall this season and the math model calls for a 14 points win (and 45 ½ total points). I do think Utah State will avoid a letdown that plagues a lot of big favorites in minor bowl games and that expected letdown is already priced into the spread, which has come down from an opening number of 11 ½ points. However, I simply will not recommend going against a 54-8-2 ATS bowl situation that favors UTEP so I have no opinion on the side or the total in this game.
Colorado State (+3) 29 Utah 28
Sat Dec-20-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 206 Over/Under 57.5
Colorado State’s breakout 10-2 season led to the loss of their head coach, Jim McElwain, who has left the program to begin his new job at Florida. Despite the loss of their head coach the Rams’ players still seem to be fired up for the chance to beat a Pac 12 team for a second straight year in a bowl game. Offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin will lead CSU to Las Vegas for this game against Utah, who should also be ready to play after missing out on a bowl game the last two seasons. However, if Colorado State is indeed not distracted by the loss of their head coach (there isn’t a trend one way or the other regarding interim coaches in bowl games) then the Rams have a good shot at an upset against a Utes’ squad that plays a lot of close games (5-2 in games decided by 7 points or less this season).
Utah isn’t that impressive from the line of scrimmage, as the Utes have been 0.4 yards per play worse than average offensively (-0.3 yppl with quarterback Travis Wilson at the helm) while their defense has been 0.3 yppl better than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team). Utah’s strength is having the best special teams in the nation and those units made a difference in a few games this season. However, overall the Utes are certainly not as good as they’re top 25 ranking and 8-4 record, as they could just as easily be 6-6 had they been 3-4 in close games rather than 5-2.
Colorado State has better overall numbers from the line of scrimmage, as the Rams were 1.3 yppl better than average offensively and 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively. However, quarterback Garrett Grayson racked up really big aerial numbers against bad defensive teams while playing relatively much worse against mediocre and better than average defensive teams. While Grayson was 2.1 yards per pass play better than average overall (8.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback), he was just 0.8 yppp better than average against the 7 mediocre or better than average pass defenses that he faced (Colorado, Boise State, Boston College, Nevada, Utah State, San Jose State, and Air Force) – averaging 6.8 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB. Utah is 0.5 yppp better than average defending the pass (5.9 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.4 yppp) and the Utes should do a decent job of containing Grayson and All-American WR Rashard Higgins. Colorado State’s rushing attack, led by former Alabama RB Dee Hart (1254 yards at 6.7 ypr), should have better than average success against a Utah defense that has been better than average defending the run for the season but has struggled against the run in their last 5 games (6.3 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yprp against an average team). I’m not sure why Utah suddenly began to have trouble defending the run at the end of the season after being so good against the run through week 9 (4.1 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average team). I’ll assume the Utes will play run defense at their season average but it’s certainly plausible that they’ll continue to struggle in that regard, especially with LB Gionni Paul out. Paul was #2 on the Utes’ in tackles before missing the final two games of the regular season and the defense struggled without him.
The math model projects Colorado State with an advantage from the line of scrimmage (423 yards at 6.2 yppl to 412 yards at 5.7 yppl for Utah) but Utah has a sizeable edge in special teams and that math favors Utah by 1 ½ points overall (and 58 total points). I’d get Utah by 3 ½ points (and 56 total points) if Grayson’s trend of playing relatively much worse against mediocre and good pass defenses continues but the line is at least fair if that is the case. The reason for liking Colorado State is a 40-7-3 ATS bowl situation that applies to Utah and a 7-34-1 ATS situation that applies to Utah. The record is 8-0-1 ATS when those situations favors the same team and I’ll lean with Colorado State plus the points and I have no opinion on the total.
*UNDER (60 ½) – Louisiana Tech (-6) 27 Illinois 24
I have finalized the math and written up the first 3 of Saturday's Bowl games and have just one lean (on Colorado State). I am going to get a few hours of sleep but I'll work on the other two Saturday Bowl games and hopefully have those to you by early afternoon. I won't have a Best Bet on either of those games either and I'm not even sure which way I lean yet. The next batch of Best Bets will be released on Monday or Tuesday.
College Football Analysis by Dr. Bob
Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.
I’ve released 3 Best Bets so far:
Miami-Florida (-1.5) 3-Stars at -2.5 or less, 2-Stars at -3.
Boise State (+4) 2-Stars at +3 or more.
UNDER (60.5) Illinois-LA Tech 1-Star UNDER 59 or higher
Nevada (-1) 32 UL LAFAYETTE 30
Sat Dec-20-2014 at 08:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 201 Over/Under 61.0
Louisiana Lafayette is representing the Sun Belt Conference in the New Orleans bowl for the 4th consecutive year and the Ragin’ Cajuns have made the mostly supportive fans happy with 3 consecutive wins (and spread wins). UL Lafayette certainly could make it 4 for 4 in a battle of two teams that are pretty evenly matched from the line of scrimmage and both have veteran senior quarterbacks at the helm. However, Nevada has the edge in special teams and that extra field position could be the difference in the close game.
Nevada’s offense is led by 4 year starting quarterback Cody Fajardo, who has easily had his worst season of an otherwise very good collegiate career. Fajardo has been an above average quarterback the last 3 seasons but this season he averaged just 5.6 yards per pass play while facing teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Fajardo also threw 11 interceptions, which isn’t horrible, but it’s a lot for a guy that had thrown an average of just 6 interceptions over the first 3 years of his career. Fajardo shouldn’t have any interception issues against a UL Lafayette defense that allows 66% completions and picked off just 7 passes on 414 opponent’s pass attempts during the regular season. The Ragin’ Cajuns allowed 7.3 yards per pass play this season to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.7 yppp against an average quarterback and that bad number is despite a better than average pass rush (2.5 sacks per game). Fajardo is an elusive quarterback that doesn’t get sacked often and he should post pretty good aerial numbers in this game while also leading a good ground attack (223 yards at 5.4 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team) that should have no trouble gaining yards against a sub-par ULL defensive front that allowed 5.3 yprp this season to teams that would combine to average just 4.6 yprp against an average defensive team. Overall, Nevada’s offense rates at 0.3 yards per play worse than average while Lafayette’s defense is 1.1 yppl worse than average. Nevada is projected to gain 433 yards at 6.4 yppl in this game (with half a normal home field advantage applied in favor of ULL).
UL Lafayette’s veteran quarterback Terrance Broadway is in his third and final season leading the Ragin’ Cajuns and he also had his worst season by far after two very good campaigns after transferring from Houston. Broadway averaged over 9 yards per pass attempt in each of the last two seasons but that average dipped to 6.7 ypa and he averaged only 5.8 yards per pass play (which includes sacks) against FBS teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback. Not having the services of top WR Jamal Robinson most of the season certain affected Broadway, as Robinson averaged 9.8 yards per pass thrown to him last season (862 yards on 88 targets) and he averaged 12.4 yards on the 21 passes that Broadway threw to him (he caught 15 of them) this season while the other wide receivers combined to average just 7.0 yards per pass attempt. UL Lafayette’s very good rushing attack (239 yards at 6.0 yprp against teams that would allow 5.3 yprp) helped make up for the less efficient pass attack and overall the Ragin’ Cajuns’ attack rates at 0.1 yards per play better than average. That unit is projected to rack up 433 yards at 6.3 yppl against a sub-par Nevada defense that is 0.5 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) and is equally bad against the run and pass.
Both teams should move the ball well and in fact are each projected to gain 433 yards by my model. Nevada has an edge in special teams and is a bit less likely to turn the ball over and overall the math favors the Wolf Pack by 3 ½ points with Lafayette receiving half a standard home field advantage for playing this game in nearby New Orleans. The Ragin Cajun’s certainly have taken advantage of the home cooking the last 3 years so perhaps a full home field edge is justified, in which case I get Nevada by 2 points (with a total of 61 ½ points). I have no opinion on the side or the total in this game.
Utah State (-10) 28 Texas El Paso 17
Sat Dec-20-2014 at 11:20 AM Pacific Rotation: 204 Over/Under 46.0
UTEP applies to a 54-8-2 ATS big underdog bowl situation but that situation works because the big favorite usually isn’t that interested in a minor bowl game against an inferior opponents. That doesn’t appear to be the case here, as Utah State head coach Matt Wells and his senior leaders have said that they’re hungry for a win to secure their 10th win and atone for what they thought was a down season and to atone for the season ending 19-50 loss at Boise State. If Utah State plays their normal game then the Aggies should win by double-digits.
Utah State started the season slowly with veteran quarterback Chuckie Keeton struggling but the offense perked up when Keeton was injured and Darell Garretson took over behind center. I had a Best Bet on Utah State in Garretson’s first start against BYU and the Aggies started a run of 3 straight spread wins with Garretson at the helm with a 35-20 win as a 21 point dog to BYU. Injuries to Garretson and 3rd string quarterback Craig Harrison led to freshman Kent Myers burning his redshirt and starting the final 5 games of the regular season. Myers is an accurate passer (69% completions) and a very good runner (299 yards on just 32 runs) and the Aggies offense has also received a boost by running more fly sweeps with dangerous wide receiver JoJo Natson, who averaged 10.2 yards on his 45 runs this season and ran 17 times in the last 4 games. Myers mostly settles for short passes to help move the chains and the combination of accurate passing and an enhanced rushing attack has led to Utah State being 0.8 yards per play better than average offensively in Myers’ 5 starts, which is better than their +0.1 yppl season rating. That attack is projected to gain 378 yards at 7.2 yppl in this game against a horrible UTEP defense that has given up 6.4 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average only 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. UTEP doesn’t defend the run well (5.8 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yprp against an average team) and the Miners take a lot of chances in their secondary, which leads a good percentage of interceptions but also to a lot of big pass plays (15.0 yards per completion allowed).
UTEP isn’t quite as bad offensively but the Miners are 0.7 yppl worse than average on the attack side of the ball (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) and were limited to just 3.4 yppl in their two games against better than average defensive teams Kansas State and Louisiana Tech. Utah State’s defense has allowed just 4.8 yppl and 20.8 points per game this season (against teams that would average 5.3 yppl and 25.5 points against an average defensive team) and the Aggies should have no trouble containing UTEP’s poor attack. In fact, the math projects only 295 yards at 4.5 yppl for the Miners in this game.
Utah State has a huge edge from a yards per play perspective, as they are projected to average 7.2 yppl to UTEP’s 4.5 yppl. However, Utah State is a big play offense and UTEP’s defense gives up big plays, which should mean that the Aggies run far fewer plays. That’s built into the model, which projects UTEP with a +13 play differential in this game, but overall the Aggies have a huge edge from the line of scrimmage and a solid edge in special teams. Neither quarterback throws interceptions, as Myers had just 2 in 5-plus games and UTEP’s Jameill Showers threw just 5 interceptions in 12 regular season games. That math would have favored Utah State by 12 points using season stats but the Aggies are better offensively with Myers than they are overall this season and the math model calls for a 14 points win (and 45 ½ total points). I do think Utah State will avoid a letdown that plagues a lot of big favorites in minor bowl games and that expected letdown is already priced into the spread, which has come down from an opening number of 11 ½ points. However, I simply will not recommend going against a 54-8-2 ATS bowl situation that favors UTEP so I have no opinion on the side or the total in this game.
Colorado State (+3) 29 Utah 28
Sat Dec-20-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 206 Over/Under 57.5
Colorado State’s breakout 10-2 season led to the loss of their head coach, Jim McElwain, who has left the program to begin his new job at Florida. Despite the loss of their head coach the Rams’ players still seem to be fired up for the chance to beat a Pac 12 team for a second straight year in a bowl game. Offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin will lead CSU to Las Vegas for this game against Utah, who should also be ready to play after missing out on a bowl game the last two seasons. However, if Colorado State is indeed not distracted by the loss of their head coach (there isn’t a trend one way or the other regarding interim coaches in bowl games) then the Rams have a good shot at an upset against a Utes’ squad that plays a lot of close games (5-2 in games decided by 7 points or less this season).
Utah isn’t that impressive from the line of scrimmage, as the Utes have been 0.4 yards per play worse than average offensively (-0.3 yppl with quarterback Travis Wilson at the helm) while their defense has been 0.3 yppl better than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team). Utah’s strength is having the best special teams in the nation and those units made a difference in a few games this season. However, overall the Utes are certainly not as good as they’re top 25 ranking and 8-4 record, as they could just as easily be 6-6 had they been 3-4 in close games rather than 5-2.
Colorado State has better overall numbers from the line of scrimmage, as the Rams were 1.3 yppl better than average offensively and 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively. However, quarterback Garrett Grayson racked up really big aerial numbers against bad defensive teams while playing relatively much worse against mediocre and better than average defensive teams. While Grayson was 2.1 yards per pass play better than average overall (8.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback), he was just 0.8 yppp better than average against the 7 mediocre or better than average pass defenses that he faced (Colorado, Boise State, Boston College, Nevada, Utah State, San Jose State, and Air Force) – averaging 6.8 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB. Utah is 0.5 yppp better than average defending the pass (5.9 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.4 yppp) and the Utes should do a decent job of containing Grayson and All-American WR Rashard Higgins. Colorado State’s rushing attack, led by former Alabama RB Dee Hart (1254 yards at 6.7 ypr), should have better than average success against a Utah defense that has been better than average defending the run for the season but has struggled against the run in their last 5 games (6.3 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yprp against an average team). I’m not sure why Utah suddenly began to have trouble defending the run at the end of the season after being so good against the run through week 9 (4.1 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average team). I’ll assume the Utes will play run defense at their season average but it’s certainly plausible that they’ll continue to struggle in that regard, especially with LB Gionni Paul out. Paul was #2 on the Utes’ in tackles before missing the final two games of the regular season and the defense struggled without him.
The math model projects Colorado State with an advantage from the line of scrimmage (423 yards at 6.2 yppl to 412 yards at 5.7 yppl for Utah) but Utah has a sizeable edge in special teams and that math favors Utah by 1 ½ points overall (and 58 total points). I’d get Utah by 3 ½ points (and 56 total points) if Grayson’s trend of playing relatively much worse against mediocre and good pass defenses continues but the line is at least fair if that is the case. The reason for liking Colorado State is a 40-7-3 ATS bowl situation that applies to Utah and a 7-34-1 ATS situation that applies to Utah. The record is 8-0-1 ATS when those situations favors the same team and I’ll lean with Colorado State plus the points and I have no opinion on the total.
*UNDER (60 ½) – Louisiana Tech (-6) 27 Illinois 24
Mike O'Connor :
I have three Best Bets so far and I'm still working on several others so please be on the lookout for your next update on Friday.
Good luck.
NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor
***WASHINGTON (+7.5) 26 Philadelphia 24
Sat Dec-20-2014 at 01:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 106 Over/Under 50.5
The Redskins played well in their 13-24 loss last week to the Giants as they outgained New York 372 yards at 5.5 yppl to 287 yards at 5.0 yppl, winning strong in the trenches (144 rushing yards at 5.3 ypr to 49 at 2.2 ypr for the Giants). They have some talent and I expect that they’ll play well and keep this one close against an Eagles team that has taken a step back recently in losses to the Cowboys and the Seahawks at home but still have a shot at the playoffs contingent upon a win in this game. That scenario actually sets the Redskins up in a 91-57-4 contrarian situation that plays on teams that are out of the playoffs when facing a team that needs a win to stay in the race. Washington also qualifies in a 54-21-1 situation that plays on late season home dogs while the Eagles qualify in a negative 21-51 situation that plays against big favorites with below average defenses. My model predicts just a 1.3 point Eagles win in this one and with good line value and situations lining up, I’ll take the Redskins +7.5 for 3-stars down to +7 and for 2-stars at down to +6.
***Minnesota (+7 -125) 20 MIAMI 17
Sun Dec-21-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 107 Over/Under 42.5
The Vikings have been playing well recently (won 7 of the last 8 ATS) as the game has slowed down for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater while their defense has consistently improved, allowing an average of just 19 points per game in their last nine. On the other side, the Dolphins have imploded down the stretch in two pivotal games against the Ravens and the Patriots the past two weeks and are on the outside looking in at the playoffs. With a win in this game needed for a shot at the postseason, Miami qualifies on the wrong side of a 91-57-4 contrarian situation that plays against teams in this spot. Minnesota also qualifies in another late season 143-93-9 situation as well as a very good 80-28-2 trend while the Dolphins qualify in a negative 199-318-17 statistical match-up indicator. With strong technical support stemming from multiple and varied situations, this is an automatic play for me. I’ll take the Vikings +7 (-125) for 3-stars down to +6 and for 2-stars at down to +4.5.
**NY JETS (+10.5) 22 New England 25
Sun Dec-21-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 116 Over/Under 47.5
Fittingly, this is likely the final home game in the Rex Ryan era and as it happens, it’s against the Jets most hated rival, the Patriots. As a coach that the team loves and respects, this is no doubt a game that the Jets will be bringing all they have in an effort to send Rex out in style. From a match-up perspective, New York should be able to grind out yards (averaging 146 rushing yards at 4.7 ypr against teams that allow 110 yards at 4.3 ypr) against a Patriots rush defense that has been about average defending the run. In their previous game earlier this season, the Jets gave the Patriots all that they could handle in a close 25-27 loss as New York won the yardage battle 423-323, including dominating the Pats on the ground with a 218 at 5.1 ypr to 63 at 4.2 ypr advantage. The Jets will follow a similar plan this game I’m sure as last time they also controlled the clock with a 40:54 – 19:06 advantage, effectively keeping Tom Brady and the New England offense off the field. With a clear rushing advantage, New York qualifies in a 281-179-14 statistical match up situation as well as a 500-416-16 turnover based trend. This is too many points to pass up in a tough divisional game and as a result I’ll take the Jets +10.5 for 2-Stars down to +10.
I have three Best Bets so far and I'm still working on several others so please be on the lookout for your next update on Friday.
Good luck.
NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor
***WASHINGTON (+7.5) 26 Philadelphia 24
Sat Dec-20-2014 at 01:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 106 Over/Under 50.5
The Redskins played well in their 13-24 loss last week to the Giants as they outgained New York 372 yards at 5.5 yppl to 287 yards at 5.0 yppl, winning strong in the trenches (144 rushing yards at 5.3 ypr to 49 at 2.2 ypr for the Giants). They have some talent and I expect that they’ll play well and keep this one close against an Eagles team that has taken a step back recently in losses to the Cowboys and the Seahawks at home but still have a shot at the playoffs contingent upon a win in this game. That scenario actually sets the Redskins up in a 91-57-4 contrarian situation that plays on teams that are out of the playoffs when facing a team that needs a win to stay in the race. Washington also qualifies in a 54-21-1 situation that plays on late season home dogs while the Eagles qualify in a negative 21-51 situation that plays against big favorites with below average defenses. My model predicts just a 1.3 point Eagles win in this one and with good line value and situations lining up, I’ll take the Redskins +7.5 for 3-stars down to +7 and for 2-stars at down to +6.
***Minnesota (+7 -125) 20 MIAMI 17
Sun Dec-21-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 107 Over/Under 42.5
The Vikings have been playing well recently (won 7 of the last 8 ATS) as the game has slowed down for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater while their defense has consistently improved, allowing an average of just 19 points per game in their last nine. On the other side, the Dolphins have imploded down the stretch in two pivotal games against the Ravens and the Patriots the past two weeks and are on the outside looking in at the playoffs. With a win in this game needed for a shot at the postseason, Miami qualifies on the wrong side of a 91-57-4 contrarian situation that plays against teams in this spot. Minnesota also qualifies in another late season 143-93-9 situation as well as a very good 80-28-2 trend while the Dolphins qualify in a negative 199-318-17 statistical match-up indicator. With strong technical support stemming from multiple and varied situations, this is an automatic play for me. I’ll take the Vikings +7 (-125) for 3-stars down to +6 and for 2-stars at down to +4.5.
**NY JETS (+10.5) 22 New England 25
Sun Dec-21-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 116 Over/Under 47.5
Fittingly, this is likely the final home game in the Rex Ryan era and as it happens, it’s against the Jets most hated rival, the Patriots. As a coach that the team loves and respects, this is no doubt a game that the Jets will be bringing all they have in an effort to send Rex out in style. From a match-up perspective, New York should be able to grind out yards (averaging 146 rushing yards at 4.7 ypr against teams that allow 110 yards at 4.3 ypr) against a Patriots rush defense that has been about average defending the run. In their previous game earlier this season, the Jets gave the Patriots all that they could handle in a close 25-27 loss as New York won the yardage battle 423-323, including dominating the Pats on the ground with a 218 at 5.1 ypr to 63 at 4.2 ypr advantage. The Jets will follow a similar plan this game I’m sure as last time they also controlled the clock with a 40:54 – 19:06 advantage, effectively keeping Tom Brady and the New England offense off the field. With a clear rushing advantage, New York qualifies in a 281-179-14 statistical match up situation as well as a 500-416-16 turnover based trend. This is too many points to pass up in a tough divisional game and as a result I’ll take the Jets +10.5 for 2-Stars down to +10.
Hondo
Hondo gives, you receive
It’s the annual Hondo Christmas Special, boys and girls, so gather ’round the Bettor’s Guide tree and let Jolly St. Aitch, who compiled an impressive 9-6-1 record in Week 15 (2-1 in Best Bets), fill your stockings with an assortment of priceless goodies.
Redskins over Eagles: This just in: Skittish Sony executives, who pulled the plug on the release of “The Interview” because of an anonymous cyber threat, also may cancel Friday’s scheduled release of “Annie.” Apparently some frizzy-haired foster children don’t like how they are portrayed and have threatened to sic their dogs on the company’s cowering execs.
Chargers over 49ers: ’Tis the season for the Niners to have no reason, so if you put a little bit of coin, or even a little Bitcoin, on the still-breathing Chargers, you should be able to bolt to the winner’s circle.
Hondo gives, you receive
It’s the annual Hondo Christmas Special, boys and girls, so gather ’round the Bettor’s Guide tree and let Jolly St. Aitch, who compiled an impressive 9-6-1 record in Week 15 (2-1 in Best Bets), fill your stockings with an assortment of priceless goodies.
Redskins over Eagles: This just in: Skittish Sony executives, who pulled the plug on the release of “The Interview” because of an anonymous cyber threat, also may cancel Friday’s scheduled release of “Annie.” Apparently some frizzy-haired foster children don’t like how they are portrayed and have threatened to sic their dogs on the company’s cowering execs.
Chargers over 49ers: ’Tis the season for the Niners to have no reason, so if you put a little bit of coin, or even a little Bitcoin, on the still-breathing Chargers, you should be able to bolt to the winner’s circle.
EZWINNERS
EZ's Plays For Saturday
I have one college football bowl selection and one NFL selection already posted below. May add college basketball on Saturday morning so check back then. Best of luck!
-EZ
Saturday NCAA basketball all 2 STAR plays:
2* (517) Virginia Commonwealth +1.5
2* (526) North Carolina +1
2* (527) Massachusetts +4.5
2* (552) College of Charleston +4
2* (584) North Carolina State +1.5
2* (622) Arkansas -17
2* (644) Michigan State -24
NFL
3* (103) San Diego Chargers +1
You can stick a fork in the 49ers because they are done. Last weeks loss in Seattle officially eliminated San Francisco from the playoffs. To make matters worse head coach Jim Harbaugh is a lame duck coach who will be gone at the end of the season. Another additional distraction is the release of defensive linemen Ray McDonald Wednesday after another issue with the law. San Francisco's defense has played well but McDonald will be missed and their leading tackler middle linebacker Chris Borland was injured last week and is most likely out for the season. The San Francisco offense has regressed this season and they have scored more than 17 points just once in the last eight games. The Chargers still have playoff hopes as they are one game back in the AFC wildcard picture but another loss will kill those hopes. I expect the Chargers to pick up a big win. Play on San Diego.
NCAAF
3* (209) South Alabama Jaguars -3
I have a hard time believing that Bowling Green will be excited to be playing in Montgomery Alabama in the Camellia Bowl, but I know that South Alabama will be very excited. This will be the first bowl game ever for the Jaguars and this will be like playing a home game with the South Alabama campus being just a short drive away. I expect for South Alabama to be successful against Bowling Green. The Jaguars come into this game on a two game losing streak but those losses were to South Carolina and Navy. Bowling Green comes into this game have lost three straight games and they allowed 92 total points in their last two losses against Ball State and Northern Illinois. The Jaguars offense should be successful against the Bowling Green pass defense that is the worst in the nation. The Falcons offense also doesn't help their defense much as Bowling Green is one of the worst teams in the nation in time of possession. Lay the points.
EZ's Plays For Saturday
I have one college football bowl selection and one NFL selection already posted below. May add college basketball on Saturday morning so check back then. Best of luck!
-EZ
Saturday NCAA basketball all 2 STAR plays:
2* (517) Virginia Commonwealth +1.5
2* (526) North Carolina +1
2* (527) Massachusetts +4.5
2* (552) College of Charleston +4
2* (584) North Carolina State +1.5
2* (622) Arkansas -17
2* (644) Michigan State -24
NFL
3* (103) San Diego Chargers +1
You can stick a fork in the 49ers because they are done. Last weeks loss in Seattle officially eliminated San Francisco from the playoffs. To make matters worse head coach Jim Harbaugh is a lame duck coach who will be gone at the end of the season. Another additional distraction is the release of defensive linemen Ray McDonald Wednesday after another issue with the law. San Francisco's defense has played well but McDonald will be missed and their leading tackler middle linebacker Chris Borland was injured last week and is most likely out for the season. The San Francisco offense has regressed this season and they have scored more than 17 points just once in the last eight games. The Chargers still have playoff hopes as they are one game back in the AFC wildcard picture but another loss will kill those hopes. I expect the Chargers to pick up a big win. Play on San Diego.
NCAAF
3* (209) South Alabama Jaguars -3
I have a hard time believing that Bowling Green will be excited to be playing in Montgomery Alabama in the Camellia Bowl, but I know that South Alabama will be very excited. This will be the first bowl game ever for the Jaguars and this will be like playing a home game with the South Alabama campus being just a short drive away. I expect for South Alabama to be successful against Bowling Green. The Jaguars come into this game on a two game losing streak but those losses were to South Carolina and Navy. Bowling Green comes into this game have lost three straight games and they allowed 92 total points in their last two losses against Ball State and Northern Illinois. The Jaguars offense should be successful against the Bowling Green pass defense that is the worst in the nation. The Falcons offense also doesn't help their defense much as Bowling Green is one of the worst teams in the nation in time of possession. Lay the points.
GMC- NFL Selection
106 Washington +7.5
CBB-Selections
10* 533 Vanderbilt +3
611 Illinois State +5
564 Pepperdine +4
106 Washington +7.5
CBB-Selections
10* 533 Vanderbilt +3
611 Illinois State +5
564 Pepperdine +4
