CHUCK O'BRIEN
Saturday's Plays
30 DIME – Fresno State
The play here is on Fresno State to get it done in the Humanitarian Bowl over Northern Illinois. As I go live with this selection, the Bulldogs are a one-point underdog, tholgh this number has been dropping since it opened at Northern Illinois minus-3. Thus I wouldn’t be at all surparised to see the Bulldogs go off as the favorite. So if you can find Fresno at +1 right now, absolutely grab it before the line swings the other direction.
15 DIME – BYU
The play here is on BYU to blow out UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl. As I go live with this selection, the Cougars are ranging from an 11 to 12-point favorite, with the prevailing number being 11 ½. Be sure to have multiple wagrring options so you can take advantage of the best number available.
Fresno State
BREAKDOWN: Although this pointspread has dropped from an opening number of Northern Illinois minus-3, still have to respect the underdog’s success in Fresno State bowl games (seven straight spread-covers, including four straight outright upsets by the Bulldogs). Also have to acknowledge Fresno State’s familiarity with the surroundings (they play on Boise State’s “Smurf Turf” every other year – including a disheartening 51-0 loss to Boise State a month ago, plus two bowl victories over Virginia and Georgia Tech). … Northern Illinois had a tremendous season, but most of its success came in the crappy Mid-American Conference, where the Huskies ran the table in the regular season only to get stunned by Miami (Ohio) in the league title game, losing 26-21 as a 17½-point favorite. The MAC was way down this year, while Fresno’s league (the Western Athletic Conference) had a banner year (tri-champs Hawaii, Nevada and Boise State all finished with 10-plus wins and all are currently ranked in the Top 25).
Not only did the Bulldogs face all three of those solid WAC squads, they played at Ole Miss and bookended the season with an opening victory over Big East foe Cincinnati (28-14) and a season-ending upset of Big Ten squad Illinois (25-23). That’s the same Illinois that handed Northern Illinois a 28-22 loss back in September. Thus there’s no debating that Fresno had a MUCH tougher road to this bowl game than the Huskies. … Two intangibles to note here: First, the Bulldogs have dropped back-to-back bowl games (both the New Mexico Bowl) by a combined 12 points, so you know they’re coming to play today. Secondly, after losing the MAC championship game, Northern Illinois coach Jerry Kill resigned for the Minnesota job – not only that but he took his offensive and defensive coordinators with him. That means the Huskies will have a stripped-down coaching staff guiding them today, while Fresno State will have 14-year coach Pat Hill (a veteran of 10 previous bowl games) on their sidelines.
Finally, Northern Illinois is in pointspread slumps of 0-6 at neutral sites, 0-4 in December, 1-5-1 against the WAC and 2-9 against winning teams. And the Huskies’ 27-3 loss to South Florida in the International Bowl last year is part of the MAC’s 2-15 postseason slump going back to 2006.
BYU
BREAKDOWN: There are a lot of philosophies when it comes to handicapping bowl games, but one that I consistently subscribe to is “ride the team with momentum.” Well, in this New Mexico Bowl that team is clearly BYU. After starting the season 1-4 – including an embarrassing 31-16 loss to instate little brother Utah State - , the Cougars closed on a 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS run. The only two losses came at TCU (no shame there) and at Utah in the season finale (a stinging 17-16 setback after BYU took a 13-0 lead into the fourth quarter). The Cougars closed strong for two main reasons: The defense turned things around (16 ppg allowed last seven contest) as did freshman QB Jake Heaps (9 TDs, 1 INT in the last four games after starting out with a 2-7 TD-to-INT ratio). … UTEP’s season, meanwhile, was the complete opposite of BYU’s. The Miners starting strong with wins in five of their first six games, but ended on a 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS slump, including a 34-24 loss to lowly Tulane as a 10-point home favorite. That UTEP got to 6-6 was a product of a weak early season schedule that featured wins over an FBS squad (Arkansas Pine-Bluff) and four opponents that finished a combined 8-40!
Yes, this is a hefty number for one 6-6 team to be laying against another 6-6 team. However, three of the best teams UTEP faced (Houston, UAB and Arkansas) spanked the Miners by respective scores of 54-24, 21-6 and 58-21, while BYU’s final three victories came by scores of 55-7, 49-10 and 40-7. … There’s a reason this matchup of .500 teams features such a big pointspread: BYU (4-1 ATS in its last five December games, all at neutral sites) is the superior team.
Saturday's Plays
30 DIME – Fresno State
The play here is on Fresno State to get it done in the Humanitarian Bowl over Northern Illinois. As I go live with this selection, the Bulldogs are a one-point underdog, tholgh this number has been dropping since it opened at Northern Illinois minus-3. Thus I wouldn’t be at all surparised to see the Bulldogs go off as the favorite. So if you can find Fresno at +1 right now, absolutely grab it before the line swings the other direction.
15 DIME – BYU
The play here is on BYU to blow out UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl. As I go live with this selection, the Cougars are ranging from an 11 to 12-point favorite, with the prevailing number being 11 ½. Be sure to have multiple wagrring options so you can take advantage of the best number available.
Fresno State
BREAKDOWN: Although this pointspread has dropped from an opening number of Northern Illinois minus-3, still have to respect the underdog’s success in Fresno State bowl games (seven straight spread-covers, including four straight outright upsets by the Bulldogs). Also have to acknowledge Fresno State’s familiarity with the surroundings (they play on Boise State’s “Smurf Turf” every other year – including a disheartening 51-0 loss to Boise State a month ago, plus two bowl victories over Virginia and Georgia Tech). … Northern Illinois had a tremendous season, but most of its success came in the crappy Mid-American Conference, where the Huskies ran the table in the regular season only to get stunned by Miami (Ohio) in the league title game, losing 26-21 as a 17½-point favorite. The MAC was way down this year, while Fresno’s league (the Western Athletic Conference) had a banner year (tri-champs Hawaii, Nevada and Boise State all finished with 10-plus wins and all are currently ranked in the Top 25).
Not only did the Bulldogs face all three of those solid WAC squads, they played at Ole Miss and bookended the season with an opening victory over Big East foe Cincinnati (28-14) and a season-ending upset of Big Ten squad Illinois (25-23). That’s the same Illinois that handed Northern Illinois a 28-22 loss back in September. Thus there’s no debating that Fresno had a MUCH tougher road to this bowl game than the Huskies. … Two intangibles to note here: First, the Bulldogs have dropped back-to-back bowl games (both the New Mexico Bowl) by a combined 12 points, so you know they’re coming to play today. Secondly, after losing the MAC championship game, Northern Illinois coach Jerry Kill resigned for the Minnesota job – not only that but he took his offensive and defensive coordinators with him. That means the Huskies will have a stripped-down coaching staff guiding them today, while Fresno State will have 14-year coach Pat Hill (a veteran of 10 previous bowl games) on their sidelines.
Finally, Northern Illinois is in pointspread slumps of 0-6 at neutral sites, 0-4 in December, 1-5-1 against the WAC and 2-9 against winning teams. And the Huskies’ 27-3 loss to South Florida in the International Bowl last year is part of the MAC’s 2-15 postseason slump going back to 2006.
BYU
BREAKDOWN: There are a lot of philosophies when it comes to handicapping bowl games, but one that I consistently subscribe to is “ride the team with momentum.” Well, in this New Mexico Bowl that team is clearly BYU. After starting the season 1-4 – including an embarrassing 31-16 loss to instate little brother Utah State - , the Cougars closed on a 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS run. The only two losses came at TCU (no shame there) and at Utah in the season finale (a stinging 17-16 setback after BYU took a 13-0 lead into the fourth quarter). The Cougars closed strong for two main reasons: The defense turned things around (16 ppg allowed last seven contest) as did freshman QB Jake Heaps (9 TDs, 1 INT in the last four games after starting out with a 2-7 TD-to-INT ratio). … UTEP’s season, meanwhile, was the complete opposite of BYU’s. The Miners starting strong with wins in five of their first six games, but ended on a 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS slump, including a 34-24 loss to lowly Tulane as a 10-point home favorite. That UTEP got to 6-6 was a product of a weak early season schedule that featured wins over an FBS squad (Arkansas Pine-Bluff) and four opponents that finished a combined 8-40!
Yes, this is a hefty number for one 6-6 team to be laying against another 6-6 team. However, three of the best teams UTEP faced (Houston, UAB and Arkansas) spanked the Miners by respective scores of 54-24, 21-6 and 58-21, while BYU’s final three victories came by scores of 55-7, 49-10 and 40-7. … There’s a reason this matchup of .500 teams features such a big pointspread: BYU (4-1 ATS in its last five December games, all at neutral sites) is the superior team.
Derek Mancini
Today's Winner...
50 Dime play on Northern Ialinois over Fresno State. The Huskies are currcently 1 1/2 point favorites in tonight's Humanitdrian Bowl from Boise, Idaho.
Love the Huskies here for a couple reasons, but none bigger than the public's oveareaction to the coaching change. Everywhere I look someone is ranting and raving about Jerry Kill taking the job at Minnesota, and how LB coach Tom Matukewicz won't be able to gameplan for Fresno State. That's complete and utter bullshit. This is a veteran Northern Illinois team, and coach Matukewicz has smartly been playing the powerful "us against the world" card, telling his players how everyone is doubting them based on the coaching change. It will work wonders tonight.
From a match up standpoint, the Bulldogs may have played the tougher schedule, but I'm not buying that makes them the better team. The Huskies rolled through the MAC like a hot knife through butter, only to falter in the MAC Title game. They had a letdown, big 'effin deal! They dropped 71 points on Eastern Michigan, and then got a little too high in the saddle and laid an egg against Miami (OH). But are you going to base your assescment of NIU on one game or an entire season?! Looking at their entire resume, the Huskies are the superior team here - period.
Let me make something very clear: I'm well aware of the Bulldogs penchant for sacking the passer (37 sacks). HOWEVER, don't confuse the ability to notch sacks with the ability to play defense, with Fresno allowing almost 30 ppg on the season. Also, if you dig a little deeper, you'll see that the Northern Illinois o-line is damn good, and has surrendered only 13 sacks on the season. So if the Bulldogs can't get to Harnish, its safe to say their swiss cheese can be taken advantage of.
Along with an excellent o-line (which helped the Huskies average 6.4 ypc), NIU has the two best offensive players on the field in Harnish and Spann. Harnish is not only more acdurate than his couterpart Colburn (64% to 61%), but he's also way more adepth with his feet (764 yards, 6 ypc, 5 TDs). While Spann is comparable to Fresno's Robbie Rouse, Spann's 20 TDs far supercede Rouse, and he runs behind the better o-line. Long story short, bettors are overreacting to the coaching change, as this NIU team is superior in almost every facet of the game. They'll be motivated to show they're more than just Jerry Kill. Take Northern Illinois over Fresno State Saturday.
Today's Winner...
50 Dime play on Northern Ialinois over Fresno State. The Huskies are currcently 1 1/2 point favorites in tonight's Humanitdrian Bowl from Boise, Idaho.
Love the Huskies here for a couple reasons, but none bigger than the public's oveareaction to the coaching change. Everywhere I look someone is ranting and raving about Jerry Kill taking the job at Minnesota, and how LB coach Tom Matukewicz won't be able to gameplan for Fresno State. That's complete and utter bullshit. This is a veteran Northern Illinois team, and coach Matukewicz has smartly been playing the powerful "us against the world" card, telling his players how everyone is doubting them based on the coaching change. It will work wonders tonight.
From a match up standpoint, the Bulldogs may have played the tougher schedule, but I'm not buying that makes them the better team. The Huskies rolled through the MAC like a hot knife through butter, only to falter in the MAC Title game. They had a letdown, big 'effin deal! They dropped 71 points on Eastern Michigan, and then got a little too high in the saddle and laid an egg against Miami (OH). But are you going to base your assescment of NIU on one game or an entire season?! Looking at their entire resume, the Huskies are the superior team here - period.
Let me make something very clear: I'm well aware of the Bulldogs penchant for sacking the passer (37 sacks). HOWEVER, don't confuse the ability to notch sacks with the ability to play defense, with Fresno allowing almost 30 ppg on the season. Also, if you dig a little deeper, you'll see that the Northern Illinois o-line is damn good, and has surrendered only 13 sacks on the season. So if the Bulldogs can't get to Harnish, its safe to say their swiss cheese can be taken advantage of.
Along with an excellent o-line (which helped the Huskies average 6.4 ypc), NIU has the two best offensive players on the field in Harnish and Spann. Harnish is not only more acdurate than his couterpart Colburn (64% to 61%), but he's also way more adepth with his feet (764 yards, 6 ypc, 5 TDs). While Spann is comparable to Fresno's Robbie Rouse, Spann's 20 TDs far supercede Rouse, and he runs behind the better o-line. Long story short, bettors are overreacting to the coaching change, as this NIU team is superior in almost every facet of the game. They'll be motivated to show they're more than just Jerry Kill. Take Northern Illinois over Fresno State Saturday.
