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***** SATURDAY, DECEMBER 11TH NBA INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• HOT TEAMS
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-- Grizzlies covered five of their last six games.
-- Hawks won seven of last nine games, but are 2-8 as home favorite.
-- Celtics won last nine games, are 8-4 vs spread on road, 4-4 as fave. Bobcats are 4-1 as home underdog.
-- Chicago won last four games, by 3-9-5-4 points; they're 2-5 in last seven games as home favorite.
-- Mavericks won last 11 games, covering seven of last nine. Utah is 5-0 in last five games as road underdog.
-- Houston won, covered their last four home games.
-- Miami won last seven games, covered last six.
• COLD TEAMS
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-- Clippers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Pacers lost last three road games, by 22-8-2 points.
-- Pistons lost seven of their last eight games. Raptors lost last four in a row, by 17-24-3-7 points.
-- Minnesota lost 8 of last 10 games; they're 5-7 as road dogs.
-- Cavaliers lost last six games (1-5 vs spread).
-- Sacramento lost 14 of its last 16 games.
• BACK-TO-BACK
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-- Hawks are 3-4 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Charlotte is 5-1 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Minnesota is 3-2 vs spread if it played night before. Pistons are 0-4 SU, 2-2 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Bulls are 3-2 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Teams are 4-1-1 vs spread if they played Orlando night before.
-- Rockets are 2-3 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Miami is 2-3 vs spread if it played night before.
• TOTALS
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-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Clipper games.
-- Three of last four Atlanta home games went over the total.
-- Last four Charlotte home games stayed under total.
-- Last five Detroit home games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Chicago games stayed under total.
-- Last three Dallas games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Miami games stayed under total.
• QUICK HITS
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--MEMPHIS @ LA CLIPPERS, 3:30 PM ET MEMPHIS: 21-9 Over as road dog of 6pts or less. LA CLIPPERS: 15-28 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.
--INDIANA @ ATLANTA, 7:00 PM ET INDIANA: 19-7 Under playing on back to back days. ATLANTA: 2-10 ATS as home favorite.
--BOSTON @CHARLOTTE, 7:00 PM ET BOSTON: 16-4 Over off road ATS loss/SU win. CHARLOTTE: 81-55 ATS playing on back to back days.
--TORONTO @ DETROIT, 7:30 PM ET NBA TORONTO: 18-4 Over off SU loss as favorite. DETROIT: 9-23 ATS off road loss by 10+ points.
--MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO, 8:00 PM ET WGN MINNESOTA: 18-35 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. CHICAGO: 73-46 ATS at home playing on back to back days.
--UTAH @ DALLAS, 8:30 PM ET UTAH: 25-10 ATS after allowing 105+ pts. DALLAS: 16-35 ATS as home favorite.
--CLEVELAND @ HOUSTON, 8:30 PM ET CLEVELAND: 2-10 ATS at Houston. HOUSTON: 8-1 Under vs. Eastern Conference.
--MIAMI @ SACRAMENTO, 10:00 PM ET MIAMI: 6-1 ATS off 2 straight covers as favorite. SACRAMENTO: 2-9 ATS off home game.
• TIPS & NOTES
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--The Boston Celtics are still streaking, but that doesn't mean their injury woes are over. They played their first game of the season without both of the O'Neals (Shaq and Jermaine) on Thursday and struggled at Philadelphia, getting out-rebounded 39-33 but pulling out a 102-101 victory at the last second. Semih Erden started at center and played 17 minutes, while Glen Davis came off the bench and logged 26 minutes. Jermaine (knee) will still be out on Saturday when Boston visits Charlotte, while Shaq (calf) is questionable. Kendrick Perkins, of course, is still sidelined by offseason knee surgery.
--Maybe all it took for former No. 1 overall pick Andrea Bargnani's game to take off was for Chris Bosh to get out of Toronto. Bargnani erupted for 41 points, seven rebounds, and six assists in Wednesday's 113-100 loss at New York He has pulled down at least seven rebounds in six of his past seven games and is averaging just at 22 points a night during this stretch. "We found him different areas where he could be effective," said head coach Jay Triano, whose team visits Detroit on Saturday. "If there is a five playing him, then we spread the floor. If there’s a (swingman), we try to get him touches down low. His game is consistently evolving. His post play has been a lot better than it has been any other year."
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*** MEMPHIS @ LA CLIPPERS (-1, O/U 198) ***
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A pair of shots at the buzzer led to very different outcomes for the Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies in their last games. The Grizzlies look to close a four-game road trip with back-to-back wins when they meet the league-worst Clippers on Saturday. Memphis snapped a four-game losing streak with a 104-98 overtime win at Phoenix on Wednesday. Zach Randolph scored a season-high 34 points and Rudy Gay added 22. Gay sent the game into overtime with a 3-pointer before the buzzer after Memphis let a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter slip away.
“We didn’t fold, but we’ve got to learn how to win games,” said Randolph, who made 15 of his 19 shots and also had 17 rebounds. “We have to learn to sustain that lead to be a playoff team that we want to be.” Randolph is averaging 20.4 points and 14.0 rebounds in five games this month. His work on the boards has helped the Grizzlies play better defense the last two games, as they’ve allowed 96 points in each on 42.0 percent shooting. Opponents are averaging 102.9 points and shooting 46.1 percent against Memphis.
Saturday’s game will feature two of the league’s top rebounders in Randolph and Los Angeles rookie Blake Griffin. Randolph is averaging 11.8 boards while Griffin grabs 11.7 per game. Griffin had another good game Wednesday against the Lakers with 16 points and 11 rebounds, but the Clippers (5-18) lost 87-86 after Derek Fisher scored on a layup at the buzzer. The loss capped a disappointing performance by the Clippers, who led by 12 in the third quarter but had 20 turnovers and were held to more than 10 points below their season average, totaling 15 in the fourth.
“Hopefully, it’s a learning experience to us,” said Eric Gordon who scored 24 points. “We lose basically on turnovers. In crunch time, we made a couple of bad plays and that is what gave them a chance.” Marred by injuries, including to Chris Kaman and Baron Davis, that have forced them to turn to a young lineup, the Clippers have the worst record in the NBA. Their previous two losses against Denver and Portland both on the road were by a combined 14 points.
“No one is going to feel sorry for you,” coach Vinny Del Negro said. “You have to keep fighting, battling and improving. These games are good for all these young guys.” Los Angeles has won six of seven at home against the Grizzlies, averaging 104.7 points. Gordon averaged 20.7 points and 5.6 assists in three games against Memphis last season. The Grizzlies, who haven’t won two in a row since a season-high three-game run Nov. 20-26, are 3-9 on the road.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Clippers by 1.5; O/U 200.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Clippers -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Memphis -0.30
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--MEMPHIS is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 95.6, OPPONENT 102.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 29-45 ATS (-20.5 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 96.2, OPPONENT 102.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--LA CLIPPERS are 64-40 UNDER (+20.0 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 95.3, OPPONENT 96.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 38-19 UNDER (+17.1 Units) in home games against Southwest division opponents since 1996.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 90.9, OPPONENT 95.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--LA CLIPPERS are 15-29 against the 1rst half line (-16.9 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 49.2, OPPONENT 52.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 23-6 against the 1rst half line (+16.4 Units) versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=27 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 52.6, OPPONENT 51.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--MEMPHIS is 65-43 UNDER (+17.7 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 46.1, OPPONENT 52.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 41-22 UNDER (+16.6 Units) the 1rst half total after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 46.9, OPPONENT 49.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
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--PLAY ON - Any team (LA CLIPPERS) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a losing record.
(52-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.2%, +30 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (38-35 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.8
The average score in these games was: Team 99.7, Opponent 98.2 (Average point differential = +1.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 29 (40.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-18).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (97-88).
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*** INDIANA @ ATLANTA (-3.5, O/U 193) ***
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The Atlanta Hawks have not fared well against teams currently with winning records. They’ll get a chance to improve that mark against an Indiana Pacers team that’s hovered near .500 all season. On Saturday night, the Hawks try to win their fifth straight at Philips Arena and eighth in a row overall against the Pacers, who haven’t left Atlanta with a victory in their last six trips. Atlanta which is among the best in the Eastern Conference with an 8-4 road record fell to 2-6 versus teams currently with a winning record following Friday’s 108-92 loss at NBA-best San Antonio.
“The one thing we could not do was turn the basketball over, and in the fourth quarter we totally lost our composure,” Coach Larry Drew said after his team was outscored 37-23 in the final 12 minutes. Atlanta, though, will look to bounce back at home, where it is averaging 109.3 points and shooting 50.3 percent while posting a season-best four straight victories. The Hawks’ last five-game winning streak at home was a 12-game run to end 2009-10. During the last matchup in Atlanta, Josh Smith had 21 points and 13 rebounds and Al Horford added 18 and 12 as the Hawks posted a 94-84 victory on March 28, snapping the Pacers’ season-high tying five-game winning streak.
Atlanta extended its run in this series to seven on Nov. 16, posting a 102-92 victory in Indiana. Despite leading scorer Joe Johnson missing eight of 12 shots and scoring just 11 points, five other Hawks scored in double figures as the club hit 50 percent from the field. “I think that the deeper you are, the better team you are,” Horford said after scoring 15 points in the victory. That depth has helped Atlanta, which is 4-2 since Johnson suffered an elbow injury that could keep him out until mid-January.
The Pacers will be looking to build off Friday’s 100-92 victory over Charlotte, and move two games above .500 for just the second time this season. Indiana has not won or lost more than two in a row all season. While Coach Jim O’Brien’s team has committed 15.7 turnovers per game this season and has been outrebounded by an average of 12.5 over the last two contests, the Pacers are holding teams to 42.7 percent from the field. Indiana limited the Bobcats to 41.3 percent shooting, and improved to 8-3 when holding teams to fewer than 100 points. The Pacers are also among the league leaders with 6.0 blocks per game.
“It just goes to show that you can struggle in a lot of other areas, but if you’re defending well and holding the other team to a low field-goal percentage, you have a chance to win night in and night out,” Mike Dunleavy said. With Smith questionable after leaving in the fourth quarter Friday with a possible hamstring injury, the play of third-year center Roy Hibbert could be key as Indiana tries to snap a three-game road losing streak.
Hibbert, who had 13 points, 14 rebounds and a season-high tying six assists Friday, scored 18 with a career-high 15 boards in last month’s loss to Atlanta. Pacers leading scorer Danny Granger is averaging 28.0 points in the last three games at Philips Arena. Indiana’s last victory in Atlanta was 100-90 on Dec. 22, 2006.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Atlanta by 3; O/U 195
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Atlanta -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Atlanta -2.20
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--ATLANTA is 36-59 ATS (-19.4 Units) in home games after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 100.2, OPPONENT 94.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--ATLANTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a home favorite this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 100.1, OPPONENT 99.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--INDIANA is 46-19 ATS (+25.1 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more since 1996.
The average score was INDIANA 92.4, OPPONENT 96.6 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--INDIANA is 39-20 UNDER (+17.3 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 99.2, OPPONENT 101.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANA is 30-12 UNDER (+16.6 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 98.6, OPPONENT 100.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--ATLANTA is 68-101 against the 1rst half line (-43.1 Units) vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 46.8, OPPONENT 48.0 - (Rating = 5*)
--INDIANA is 61-39 against the 1rst half line (+17.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 53.0, OPPONENT 52.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANA is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 55.7, OPPONENT 47.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--ATLANTA is 88-59 OVER (+23.1 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 50.5, OPPONENT 50.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--INDIANA is 38-19 OVER (+16.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 52.0, OPPONENT 55.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
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--PLAY ON - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(74-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +33.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (41-71 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.4
The average score in these games was: Team 95.8, Opponent 98.8 (Average point differential = -3.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 41 (36.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-17).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (159-117).
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*** BOSTON (-6, O/U 189) @ CHARLOTTE ***
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The Boston Celtics hadn’t been challenged very often during the first eight games of their winning streak, but had to go down to the wire to push it to nine. Based on their recent history against the Charlotte Bobcats, they shouldn’t have much trouble extending it to 10. The Celtics beat the Bobcats three times last season by an average of 25 points, dominance they’d love to see continue Saturday night at Time Warner Cable Arena. Boston won its eight games from Nov. 22-Dec. 8 by an average of 14.2 points, but hardly had an easy time Thursday in Philadelphia.
The Celtics have been remarkably efficient shooting the ball during the streak, making 52.6 percent, and they made their most significant attempt count against the 76ers. Kevin Garnett banked in a shot off Rajon Rondo’s alley-oop pass with 1.4 seconds left to lift Boston to a 102-101 win. “It was a gutsy win,” Paul Pierce said. “It didn’t seem like we had it all night. We couldn’t get really consistent momentum in the game or get a consistent flow. But good teams find a way to win. There was good execution down the stretch.”
The Celtics shot 55.9 percent against Philadelphia, but one reason for their consistently impressive percentage is the number of easy looks they’re creating. Boston has averaged 48.4 points in the paint during the streak and is outscoring its opponents inside by 15.1 per game during that stretch. Prior to the winning streak, the Celtics were averaging a 7.7-point edge in the paint. Considering Kendrick Perkins is out until February and Shaquille O’Neal (leg) and Jermaine O’Neal (knee) are nursing injuries, Pierce thinks there’s still plenty of room to improve.
“I keep saying that it’s going to be scary when we get healthy,” Pierce said. “If we continue to win with the bodies that we’re putting out there - I really can’t wait for February and March when we’re healthy.” Shaquille O’Neal missed Thursday’s game and likely won’t be rushed back Saturday, but Boston might not need him. The Celtics held the Bobcats to 76.3 points per game in dominating the teams’ three meetings last season, which included a 92-59 thrashing on Oct. 28. Charlotte hasn’t been able to string together any sort of consistency this season, and that’s largely because of its struggles on the road.
The Bobcats dropped their sixth straight away from home Friday, falling 100-92 at Indiana. “I think our biggest problem is we don’t trust each other,” Coach Larry Brown said. “The ball never leaves one side. If you don’t move the ball, you don’t move your man.” Things have been much better at home, where Charlotte has won three in a row and five of six behind 22.0 points per game from Stephen Jackson and 16.7 from Tyrus Thomas. Thomas, however, missed Friday’s loss with a sore left quadriceps. He’s questionable to face the Celtics, and that’s bad news for the Bobcats. They’re 5-3 when he scores 12 points or more and 3-11 when he scores 11 or fewer or doesn’t play. Charlotte is 3-13 when it fails to shoot at least 49.0 percent.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Boston by 5; O/U 187.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Boston -6.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Boston -6.06
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--CHARLOTTE is 51-28 ATS (+19.8 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 94.8, OPPONENT 94.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHARLOTTE is 58-35 ATS (+19.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 97.2, OPPONENT 97.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 102.6, OPPONENT 95.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--BOSTON is 47-24 UNDER (+19.9 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 96.4, OPPONENT 92.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 35-16 UNDER (+17.3 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 95.5, OPPONENT 90.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--CHARLOTTE is 51-23 against the 1rst half line (+25.5 Units) in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 48.9, OPPONENT 47.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHARLOTTE is 46-25 against the 1rst half line (+18.5 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game since 1996.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 49.3, OPPONENT 50.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--CHARLOTTE is 34-15 UNDER (+17.4 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 47.2, OPPONENT 44.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 64-36 UNDER (+24.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus slow-down teams averaging 76 or less shots/game since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 45.5, OPPONENT 47.0 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - slow-down team averaging 76 or less shots/game on the season against opponent after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less.
(44-18 since 1996.) (71.0%, +24.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 183.7
The average score in these games was: Team 90.1, Opponent 88.5 (Total points scored = 178.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 36 (57.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-5).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - good shooting team - shooting >=46% on the season against opponent after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less.
(92-48 since 1996.) (65.7%, +39.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 93.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.7, Opponent 43.3 (Total first half points scored = 90)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-13).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (30-24).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road favorites vs. the 1rst half line (BOSTON) - hot team - having won 15 or more of their last 20 games against opponent after having won 2 of their last 3 games.
(75-39 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.8%, +32.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.2, Opponent 49.4 (Average first half point differential = -0.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (45-26).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (175-127).
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*** TORONTO @ DETROIT (-2.5, O/U 199) ***
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The Toronto Raptors had little trouble with the Detroit Pistons last season. Their road struggles in 2010-11 may play a major part in keeping that from happening again. The Raptors attempt to end a four-game losing streak by continuing their success against the struggling Pistons on Saturday night. Toronto dominated the Pistons in sweeping all four meetings last season by an average of 15.5 points, matching its win total from the previous 18 matchups. The Raptors outscored Detroit by an average of 22.0 points in their two visits to The Palace of Auburn Hills.
They may have trouble matching that success this season, considering they are 2-9 as the visitor while giving up an average of 108.9 points. Toronto’s overall slide reached four with Friday’s 123-116 home loss to Denver, which was without star forward Carmelo Anthony due to a knee injury. “We can’t play defense for half a game,” Coach Jay Triano said after the Raptors gave up 74 points in the first half. “I thought in the second half we attempted it and that’s all I ask of our guys.”
The Raptors are struggling defensively over the last four games, allowing an average of 119.0 points with opponents shooting 52.1 percent from the floor and 45.0 from 3-point range. Andrea Bargnani is trying to do his part to spark the Toronto offensively. The center leads the Raptors with 21.3 points per game, and scored 24 Friday after setting a career high with 41 in a 113-110 loss at New York two nights prior. He averaged 23.0 points against the Pistons last season, getting 33 in a 111-97 win at Detroit on April 12.
The Pistons have split 10 games at home, but they’ve dropped seven of eight overall and are coming off a 0-3 trip that saw them average 85.3 points while making 39.1 percent of their shots - 28.6 from beyond the arc. They shot 39.6 percent against Toronto last season and may have trouble with Bargnani again after getting outscored 58-26 in the paint during Friday’s 109-99 loss at Minnesota. Coach John Kuester, though, was pleased with his team’s effort.
“Truthfully, I thought we played well,” Kuester said. “It gets down to making sure we become more cognizant of managing certain situations. The basketball didn’t go the way we did.” Richard Hamilton will try to build on his 26-point performance against the Timberwolves after totaling 19 points over the previous two games, getting ejected from one of them.
The swingman, the league leader with three ejections, is averaging 17.4 points in nine home games - nearly four above his overall average. He missed three of four games against Toronto last season and struggled in the other, shooting 6 of 20 and scoring 15 points in a 102-95 road defeat Dec. 27. Hamilton is averaging 19.9 points in his last 11 home matchups with the Raptors, helping Detroit to wins in all of them.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Detroit by 1; O/U 196.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Toronto -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Toronto -1.04
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--DETROIT is 48-71 ATS (-30.1 Units) in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game since 1996.
The average score was DETROIT 93.9, OPPONENT 91.1 - (Rating = 5*)
--DETROIT is 42-61 ATS (-25.1 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 92.8, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--DETROIT is 26-10 UNDER (+14.9 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 95.1, OPPONENT 99.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--DETROIT is 20-7 UNDER (+12.3 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 94.2, OPPONENT 101.9 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--DETROIT is 7-21 against the 1rst half line (-15.9 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 47.3, OPPONENT 53.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 16-5 against the 1rst half line (+10.5 Units) as a road underdog of 1.5 points or less vs. the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 51.1, OPPONENT 48.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--TORONTO is 38-17 OVER (+19.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 54.2, OPPONENT 54.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 27-10 OVER (+15.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 52.8, OPPONENT 55.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites (DETROIT) - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%).
(44-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.8%, +16.5 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (36-36 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.7
The average score in these games was: Team 100.1, Opponent 100.6 (Average point differential = -0.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 33 (47.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-8).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-22).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (77-75).
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*** MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO (-10.5, O/U 205.5) ***
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Coming off a victory over the two-time defending NBA champions, the last thing the Chicago Bulls need is a letdown. The Bulls try to prevent that from happening while looking for a season-high fifth consecutive victory as they host the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday night. Chicago matched its longest winning streak of the season by beating the Los Angeles Lakers for the first time in almost four years, 88-84 at home Friday. “It was a big win,” forward Carlos Boozer said. “Hopefully, we can look at this game later on in the playoffs and use it as homework come June.”
The 84 points were a season low for the Lakers and marked the third consecutive game Chicago held an opponent to 90 or fewer points. Oklahoma City, Cleveland and Los Angeles averaged 85.7 points on 39.0 percent shooting against the Bulls during that stretch. “We’ve said (the Bulls) are going to be in the top five or six (teams in the Eastern Conference), but right now, it looks like they’re going to be above that,” former Chicago and current Lakers coach Phil Jackson told the Bulls’ official website.
The Bulls last won five in a row Jan. 22-29. “It feels good,” All-Star guard Derrick Rose said. “We’ve still got a lot more games to go. We’re moving in the right direction.” Though Chicago failed to score 90 points for the second game in a row, Rose posted 29 for the second straight contest. He’s averaged 9.0 assists his last five games. “His will is special,” Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau said.
Boozer had 10 points with 11 rebounds for his second double-double in six games as a Bull. Chicago is 4-2 since Boozer’s debut after he missed the first 15 games with a broken hand. The veteran forward has averaged 17.5 points and 12.5 boards in his last four versus Minnesota. Chicago has won two straight over the Timberwolves, holding them to fewer than 100 points in both contests. The Bulls have a good chance to continue that success while trying to hand Minnesota (6-17) a seventh consecutive road loss.
Though the Timberwolves are 1-11 on the road, they are coming off a 109-99 win over Detroit on Friday. Kevin Love had 27 points with 18 rebounds, Luke Ridnour added 20 points with 10 assists and Darko Milicic recorded a career-high seven blocks as the Timberwolves overcame a 13-point first-quarter deficit to win for the second time in 10 games. “We have to be close there the whole way in order for us to win,” Love said. “That keeps us on our toes. Eventually we’re going to get over it and start accumulating some wins. (Friday) was one of, hopefully, many.”
Love, averaging 20.4 points and 15.7 boards, has an NBA-high 18 double-doubles. He has at least 15 rebounds in nine consecutive games, the longest stretch since Ben Wallace did it in 14 straight contests in 2002-03. The third-year center has averaged 24.9 points and 18.5 boards during that nine-game stretch. However, Love totaled 18 points and 16 rebounds combined in the two losses to Chicago last season.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Chicago by 11.5; O/U 207.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Chicago -12
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Chicago -11.89
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 92-62 ATS (+23.8 Units) vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 94.4, OPPONENT 93.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--MINNESOTA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 96.8, OPPONENT 111.2 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 68-39 UNDER (+24.8 Units) in home games versus foul prone teams - called for 24 or more fouls/game since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 93.1, OPPONENT 89.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHICAGO is 35-17 UNDER (+16.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 101.3, OPPONENT 98.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--MINNESOTA is 18-37 against the 1rst half line (-22.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 48.8, OPPONENT 56.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--MINNESOTA is 24-39 against the 1rst half line (-18.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 49.2, OPPONENT 56.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 66-42 UNDER (+19.8 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus foul prone teams - called for 24 or more fouls/game since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 46.5, OPPONENT 44.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 77-53 UNDER (+18.7 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 49.5, OPPONENT 45.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 46.9, OPPONENT 43.8 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games.
(37-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.1%, +24.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.5, Opponent 48 (Total first half points scored = 96.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (52-44).
--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs (MINNESOTA) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), poor ball handling team (>=16.5 TO's) against an average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's).
(58-27 since 1996.) (68.2%, +28.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (70-17)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.8
The average score in these games was: Team 99.6, Opponent 90.7 (Average point differential = +8.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 30 (35.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
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*** UTAH @ DALLAS (-4.5, O/U 192) ***
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While the Dallas Mavericks have been shooting well lately, it’s their defense that has sparked an 11-game winning streak. The Mavericks seek their seventh consecutive victory at American Airlines Center on Saturday night when they face a Utah Jazz team looking to extend its road winning streak to seven. While Dallas is shooting 50.3 percent from the field over the last four games, the defending Southwest Division champs have limited opponents to 92.6 points per game and 43.3 percent shooting in its 10 victories. It’s the longest streak for Dallas since a 13-game run from Feb. 17-March 10.
The Mavericks’ defense has been even better at home during this run, holding teams to an average of 90.8 points on 41.2 percent shooting in the six victories. “Well, give the credit to the defense,” Caron Butler said following Thursday’s 102-89 victory over New Jersey. “That’s something we’ve honed in on since training camp. And we’re doing a great job of capitalizing on that opportunity of playing home games and winning home games.”
Coach Rick Carlisle, though, knows his team cannot afford a repeat of Thursday when the Mavericks committed 15 turnovers and missed 12 of 16 3-pointers. “We can play better and we are going to have to play better on Saturday,” he said. Carlisle’s team played well on both ends in a 93-81 victory in Utah on Dec. 3. Dirk Nowitzki made 12 of 18 shots and scored a team-high 26 points, while the Mavericks’ zone defense held the Jazz to 39.2 percent shooting. The loss snapped Utah’s season-best seven-game winning streak and a five-game run at home.
The Northwest Division-leading Jazz who play seven of nine on the road beginning Saturday, will try to return the favor as Dallas looks for its first seven-game home win streak since an eight-game run ended March 13. Utah, meanwhile, is one victory shy of its first seven-game road winning streak since Jan. 20-Feb. 21. Deron Williams scored a season-high 32 points and C.J. Miles had 19 of his season-best 26 in the fourth quarter as the Jazz capped off a 4-2 homestand Friday with a 117-105 victory over Orlando.
“They gave me some opportunities to get down the lane and make things happen and I took those,” said Williams, who was held to 12 points and committed four turnovers in the Dec. 3 loss to the Mavericks. The former Dallas-area high school star, though, has played at a high level in nine career games at American Airlines Center, averaging 21.0 points and 8.0 assists. Williams had team highs with 20 points and nine assists as Utah ended a five-game slide in Dallas with a 111-93 victory Jan. 9.
Nowitzki, who had 29 points and eight boards in that defeat, is scoring 24.7 per game on 57.3 percent shooting during the Mavericks’ winning streak. Andrei Kirilenko will likely see plenty of time against the former MVP. Playing with a strained right quadriceps on Friday, the Jazz forward had 13 rebounds, five assists and three blocks. The Mavericks have won 14 of 17 at home in this matchup.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Dallas by 4; O/U 195.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Dallas -5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Dallas -4.66
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 16-35 ATS (-22.5 Units) as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 100.7, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--UTAH is 40-18 ATS (+20.2 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 104.4, OPPONENT 98.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 103.0, OPPONENT 98.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 76-42 UNDER (+29.8 Units) against Northwest division opponents since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 99.1, OPPONENT 95.3 - (Rating = 5*)
--UTAH is 39-19 UNDER (+18.1 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 90.3, OPPONENT 96.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--UTAH is 22-40 against the 1rst half line (-22.0 Units) in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 47.9, OPPONENT 51.4 - (Rating = 4*)
--UTAH is 19-36 against the 1rst half line (-20.6 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 47.4, OPPONENT 50.7 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--UTAH is 25-8 UNDER (+16.4 Units) the 1rst half total in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 45.9, OPPONENT 48.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 26-9 UNDER (+16.3 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 47.4, OPPONENT 49.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (DALLAS) - off a home win by 10 points or more, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.
(96-54 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.0%, +36.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 99.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.3, Opponent 46.8 (Total first half points scored = 96.1)
The situation's record this season is: (5-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (64-33).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (211-154).
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As always, the best way to take advantage of Stan 'The Man's Sharp Information found each and every day right here in his Stat/Systems Report is to join for a Week or Month, so that you get every single one of his plays, including all of his Late Information releases. “Do it now and Save Big, subscribe today! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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*** CLEVELAND @ HOUSTON (-9.5, O/U 205) ***
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The Houston Rockets did a remarkable job of shutting down the Cleveland Cavaliers at the Toyota Center when LeBron James was on the roster. With the way the Cavaliers are currently constructed, there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue. The Rockets have won four straight at home overall and against the Cavaliers, who have rarely been competitive during a six-game slide they’ll hope to end Saturday night. Houston is two games into a stretch during which it plays 10 of 11 against sub-.500 opponents, a prime opportunity to remove itself from the Southwest Division basement.
The Rockets had no issues beating Detroit on Tuesday, getting a combined 78 points from Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry and Kevin Martin in a 97-83 win however two-thirds of that trio was cold Friday in Milwaukee. Martin had 23 points but Scola and Lowry combined for just 21 on 8-of-28 shooting in a 97-91 loss. “We didn’t do enough,” Lowry said. “We let them get some shots that we shouldn’t have. We made some mental mistakes and mistakes that we could have avoided. And they made us pay for it.” Cleveland has been the team that’s typically been ice cold when it’s traveled to Houston.
The Rockets have won 19 of 22 at home against the Cavaliers, including six of seven when James was around. They’ve been especially impressive during four straight victories, as Houston has held Cleveland to 74.8 points per game and 35.4 percent shooting. After dropping four of five at home to begin the season, the Rockets seem to have turned it around inside the Toyota Center. While winning four straight, they’ve held opponents to 95.3 points per game, an average exactly 10 points fewer than what they’ve yielded the rest of the season. Houston’s accuracy from beyond the arc has helped. The Rockets are shooting 50.7 percent from 3-point range during their home streak, spearheaded by some big games from Shane Batter (11 for 19).
The Cavaliers haven’t lost seven in a row since March 29-April 9, 2004, near the end of James’ rookie season. There’s little evidence to suggest they can score enough - or get enough stops - to keep that from happening Saturday. Cleveland has given up 110.0 points per game and scored 90.7 during its six-game skid. The Cavaliers appeared on the verge of emerging from their funk Wednesday against Chicago, but a disastrous fourth quarter kept that from happening. Cleveland blew an eight-point lead in the final 12 minutes, losing 88-83.
Though he wasn’t happy, Coach Byron Scott wasn’t questioning the Cavaliers’ effort like he had after the team’s 20-point loss in Philadelphia a night earlier. “We played hard for 48 minutes,” Scott said. “If we play hard like that, I can live with that.” Scott made some changes to his lineup following the loss to the 76ers. Joey Graham who had started eight of the Cavs’ last nine games, didn’t play, nor did guard Ramon Sessions. Jamario Moon who started the team’s first 12 contests, was inactive.
Antawn Jamison made his first start against Chicago and scored 21 points, but the player Cleveland really needs to get going is point guard Mo Williams. The Cavaliers are 4-0 when he scores at least 22 points and 1-12 when he’s been healthy and scored 21 or fewer.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Houston by 10.5, O/U 199.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Houston -11
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Houston -10.96
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--CLEVELAND is 63-92 ATS (-38.2 Units) in road games after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog since 1996.
The average score was CLEVELAND 89.1, OPPONENT 97.6 - (Rating = 5*)
--CLEVELAND is 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) in road games after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games since 1996.
The average score was CLEVELAND 89.4, OPPONENT 101.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
The average score was CLEVELAND 87.5, OPPONENT 100.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 1-11 ATS (-10.9 Units) in road games vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 95.8, OPPONENT 106.5 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--HOUSTON is 108-77 UNDER (+23.3 Units) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game since 1996.
The average score was HOUSTON 95.7, OPPONENT 90.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--CLEVELAND is 161-123 UNDER (+25.7 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was CLEVELAND 95.3, OPPONENT 94.4 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--HOUSTON is 56-33 against the 1rst half line (+19.7 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 50.6, OPPONENT 49.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 0-10 against the 1rst half line (-11.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 46.8, OPPONENT 57.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--CLEVELAND is 0-9 against the 1rst half line (-9.9 Units) after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 44.7, OPPONENT 55.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--HOUSTON is 99-66 UNDER (+26.4 Units) the 1rst half total against Central division opponents since 1996.
The average score was HOUSTON 47.3, OPPONENT 45.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--HOUSTON is 49-28 UNDER (+17.8 Units) the 1rst half total as a home favorite vs. the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 51.2, OPPONENT 47.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (CLEVELAND) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games.
(37-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.1%, +24.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.5, Opponent 48 (Total first half points scored = 96.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (52-44).
--PLAY ON - Home teams (HOUSTON) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games.
(43-17 since 1996.) (71.7%, +24.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (48-13)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6
The average score in these games was: Team 101.2, Opponent 92 (Average point differential = +9.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 28 (46.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-7).
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*** MIAMI (-8, O/U 195.5) @ SACRAMENTO ***
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It seems the Miami Heat’s early season struggles are behind them. If the Sacramento Kings are to slow them down, they’ll likely need a similar effort to their latest victory. Miami puts its seven-game winning streak on the line Saturday night in Sacramento, where the Heat have won five of their last six visits. Many questioned Miami after it got off to a sluggish 9-8 start to the season. Since then, the Heat have set a franchise record by winning seven straight by 10 or more points, including Friday night’s dominant 106-84 victory against Golden State.
With the win, Miami moved into first place in the Southeast Division for the first time this season as Orlando’s losing streak reached four in Utah. The Heat lead the NBA with 13 double-digit victories, and the winning streak is Miami’s longest since it won nine straight from March 20-April 7. Dwyane Wade had 34 points Friday despite taking an inadvertent elbow to the head from Warriors center Andris Biedrins less than a minute into the game, and LeBron James added 25. “Me and D-Wade have figured it out,” James said.
“We just started going back to our games, what made us who we are in this league. It’s resulted in us playing good basketball, offensively and defensively.” Wade said the winning streak is a sign the Heat are beginning to live up to expectations, but that Miami still has a long way to go. “It’s good but it doesn’t mean anything. It’s still early in the season,” Wade said. “Right now what’s good is that we’ve won seven straight playing good basketball. We can’t have any letdowns.”
The Heat have beaten the Kings in 12 of the last 13 meetings, and Saturday’s contest seems to be another mismatch. Sacramento snapped an eight-game losing streak Wednesday with a 116-91 victory against Washington. Jason Thompson had season highs of 22 points and 14 rebounds for the Kings, who have lost 14 of 16 since starting the season 3-1. It was only Thompson’s fourth double-digit scoring effort this season, and only his second 20-point performance in his last 68 games.
“We played a full 48 minutes, which we hadn’t experienced in a while,” Thompson said. “We got stops, we pushed the ball, and that’s when we’re at our best.” Sacramento hasn’t been at its best much this season, one reason being the struggles of reigning rookie of the year Tyreke Evans. Evans, who is averaging 17.1 points but shooting only 39.7 percent, had an MRI on his left foot Friday, but the team said he will play through an inflamed arch and be on the court Saturday.
Undrafted rookie guard Pooh Jeter chipped in with a season-high 13 points as the Kings built a 32-point lead against the Wizards. “We had a nice lead and (Jeter) came in and helped us up it and put the game away,” Coach Paul Westphal said. None of Sacramento’s wins this season have come against teams over .500.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Miami by 10.5; O/U 197
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Miami -11
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -13.27
___________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--SACRAMENTO is 37-56 ATS (-24.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 101.9, OPPONENT 105.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--SACRAMENTO is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 98.6, OPPONENT 105.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--SACRAMENTO is 1-9 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 89.2, OPPONENT 101.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--SACRAMENTO is 29-13 UNDER (+14.5 Units) after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 94.8, OPPONENT 102.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 130-92 UNDER (+28.8 Units) after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 92.4, OPPONENT 91.3 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--SACRAMENTO is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) after one or more consecutive overs this season.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 47.6, OPPONENT 56.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--SACRAMENTO is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) after a combined score of 205 points or more this season.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 47.6, OPPONENT 56.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 35-16 against the 1rst half line (+17.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 52.2, OPPONENT 46.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 37-20 against the 1rst half line (+15.0 Units) in road games off a road win by 10 points or more since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 50.1, OPPONENT 45.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--SACRAMENTO is 50-28 OVER (+19.2 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after having lost 4 of their last 5 games since 1996.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 53.3, OPPONENT 51.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--SACRAMENTO is 32-13 OVER (+17.6 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 51.5, OPPONENT 55.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (MIAMI) - after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more.
(32-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +24.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 54, Opponent 46.5 (Average first half point differential = +7.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (27-6).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (48-25).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team (SACRAMENTO) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more.
(55-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.5%, +29.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 197.5
The average score in these games was: Team 94, Opponent 97.5 (Total points scored = 191.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 47 (59.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-19).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (113-72).
***** SATURDAY, DECEMBER 11TH NBA INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• HOT TEAMS
-----------------
-- Grizzlies covered five of their last six games.
-- Hawks won seven of last nine games, but are 2-8 as home favorite.
-- Celtics won last nine games, are 8-4 vs spread on road, 4-4 as fave. Bobcats are 4-1 as home underdog.
-- Chicago won last four games, by 3-9-5-4 points; they're 2-5 in last seven games as home favorite.
-- Mavericks won last 11 games, covering seven of last nine. Utah is 5-0 in last five games as road underdog.
-- Houston won, covered their last four home games.
-- Miami won last seven games, covered last six.
• COLD TEAMS
-------------------
-- Clippers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Pacers lost last three road games, by 22-8-2 points.
-- Pistons lost seven of their last eight games. Raptors lost last four in a row, by 17-24-3-7 points.
-- Minnesota lost 8 of last 10 games; they're 5-7 as road dogs.
-- Cavaliers lost last six games (1-5 vs spread).
-- Sacramento lost 14 of its last 16 games.
• BACK-TO-BACK
----------------------
-- Hawks are 3-4 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Charlotte is 5-1 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Minnesota is 3-2 vs spread if it played night before. Pistons are 0-4 SU, 2-2 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Bulls are 3-2 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Teams are 4-1-1 vs spread if they played Orlando night before.
-- Rockets are 2-3 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Miami is 2-3 vs spread if it played night before.
• TOTALS
------------
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Clipper games.
-- Three of last four Atlanta home games went over the total.
-- Last four Charlotte home games stayed under total.
-- Last five Detroit home games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Chicago games stayed under total.
-- Last three Dallas games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Miami games stayed under total.
• QUICK HITS
-----------------
--MEMPHIS @ LA CLIPPERS, 3:30 PM ET MEMPHIS: 21-9 Over as road dog of 6pts or less. LA CLIPPERS: 15-28 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.
--INDIANA @ ATLANTA, 7:00 PM ET INDIANA: 19-7 Under playing on back to back days. ATLANTA: 2-10 ATS as home favorite.
--BOSTON @CHARLOTTE, 7:00 PM ET BOSTON: 16-4 Over off road ATS loss/SU win. CHARLOTTE: 81-55 ATS playing on back to back days.
--TORONTO @ DETROIT, 7:30 PM ET NBA TORONTO: 18-4 Over off SU loss as favorite. DETROIT: 9-23 ATS off road loss by 10+ points.
--MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO, 8:00 PM ET WGN MINNESOTA: 18-35 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. CHICAGO: 73-46 ATS at home playing on back to back days.
--UTAH @ DALLAS, 8:30 PM ET UTAH: 25-10 ATS after allowing 105+ pts. DALLAS: 16-35 ATS as home favorite.
--CLEVELAND @ HOUSTON, 8:30 PM ET CLEVELAND: 2-10 ATS at Houston. HOUSTON: 8-1 Under vs. Eastern Conference.
--MIAMI @ SACRAMENTO, 10:00 PM ET MIAMI: 6-1 ATS off 2 straight covers as favorite. SACRAMENTO: 2-9 ATS off home game.
• TIPS & NOTES
-------------------
--The Boston Celtics are still streaking, but that doesn't mean their injury woes are over. They played their first game of the season without both of the O'Neals (Shaq and Jermaine) on Thursday and struggled at Philadelphia, getting out-rebounded 39-33 but pulling out a 102-101 victory at the last second. Semih Erden started at center and played 17 minutes, while Glen Davis came off the bench and logged 26 minutes. Jermaine (knee) will still be out on Saturday when Boston visits Charlotte, while Shaq (calf) is questionable. Kendrick Perkins, of course, is still sidelined by offseason knee surgery.
--Maybe all it took for former No. 1 overall pick Andrea Bargnani's game to take off was for Chris Bosh to get out of Toronto. Bargnani erupted for 41 points, seven rebounds, and six assists in Wednesday's 113-100 loss at New York He has pulled down at least seven rebounds in six of his past seven games and is averaging just at 22 points a night during this stretch. "We found him different areas where he could be effective," said head coach Jay Triano, whose team visits Detroit on Saturday. "If there is a five playing him, then we spread the floor. If there’s a (swingman), we try to get him touches down low. His game is consistently evolving. His post play has been a lot better than it has been any other year."
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*** MEMPHIS @ LA CLIPPERS (-1, O/U 198) ***
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A pair of shots at the buzzer led to very different outcomes for the Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies in their last games. The Grizzlies look to close a four-game road trip with back-to-back wins when they meet the league-worst Clippers on Saturday. Memphis snapped a four-game losing streak with a 104-98 overtime win at Phoenix on Wednesday. Zach Randolph scored a season-high 34 points and Rudy Gay added 22. Gay sent the game into overtime with a 3-pointer before the buzzer after Memphis let a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter slip away.
“We didn’t fold, but we’ve got to learn how to win games,” said Randolph, who made 15 of his 19 shots and also had 17 rebounds. “We have to learn to sustain that lead to be a playoff team that we want to be.” Randolph is averaging 20.4 points and 14.0 rebounds in five games this month. His work on the boards has helped the Grizzlies play better defense the last two games, as they’ve allowed 96 points in each on 42.0 percent shooting. Opponents are averaging 102.9 points and shooting 46.1 percent against Memphis.
Saturday’s game will feature two of the league’s top rebounders in Randolph and Los Angeles rookie Blake Griffin. Randolph is averaging 11.8 boards while Griffin grabs 11.7 per game. Griffin had another good game Wednesday against the Lakers with 16 points and 11 rebounds, but the Clippers (5-18) lost 87-86 after Derek Fisher scored on a layup at the buzzer. The loss capped a disappointing performance by the Clippers, who led by 12 in the third quarter but had 20 turnovers and were held to more than 10 points below their season average, totaling 15 in the fourth.
“Hopefully, it’s a learning experience to us,” said Eric Gordon who scored 24 points. “We lose basically on turnovers. In crunch time, we made a couple of bad plays and that is what gave them a chance.” Marred by injuries, including to Chris Kaman and Baron Davis, that have forced them to turn to a young lineup, the Clippers have the worst record in the NBA. Their previous two losses against Denver and Portland both on the road were by a combined 14 points.
“No one is going to feel sorry for you,” coach Vinny Del Negro said. “You have to keep fighting, battling and improving. These games are good for all these young guys.” Los Angeles has won six of seven at home against the Grizzlies, averaging 104.7 points. Gordon averaged 20.7 points and 5.6 assists in three games against Memphis last season. The Grizzlies, who haven’t won two in a row since a season-high three-game run Nov. 20-26, are 3-9 on the road.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Clippers by 1.5; O/U 200.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Clippers -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Memphis -0.30
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 95.6, OPPONENT 102.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 29-45 ATS (-20.5 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 96.2, OPPONENT 102.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--LA CLIPPERS are 64-40 UNDER (+20.0 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 95.3, OPPONENT 96.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA CLIPPERS are 38-19 UNDER (+17.1 Units) in home games against Southwest division opponents since 1996.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 90.9, OPPONENT 95.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--LA CLIPPERS are 15-29 against the 1rst half line (-16.9 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 49.2, OPPONENT 52.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 23-6 against the 1rst half line (+16.4 Units) versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=27 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 52.6, OPPONENT 51.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 65-43 UNDER (+17.7 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 46.1, OPPONENT 52.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 41-22 UNDER (+16.6 Units) the 1rst half total after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 46.9, OPPONENT 49.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Any team (LA CLIPPERS) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a losing record.
(52-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.2%, +30 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (38-35 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.8
The average score in these games was: Team 99.7, Opponent 98.2 (Average point differential = +1.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 29 (40.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-18).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (97-88).
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Experience is what this business is all about, and good money can be made if one has the right connections. Stan 'The Man' prides himself on uncovering the edge that gives his customers the ability to beat the sports books on a consistent basis. Stan is a full time Expert Handicapper that can help you consistently beat the books. With any package that you purchase it is fully guaranteed that you show a profit, or he'll extend your service at no charge. If you have any questions about our services call 1-800 -351-4640, “You’ll be real glad you did!” -Stan
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*** INDIANA @ ATLANTA (-3.5, O/U 193) ***
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The Atlanta Hawks have not fared well against teams currently with winning records. They’ll get a chance to improve that mark against an Indiana Pacers team that’s hovered near .500 all season. On Saturday night, the Hawks try to win their fifth straight at Philips Arena and eighth in a row overall against the Pacers, who haven’t left Atlanta with a victory in their last six trips. Atlanta which is among the best in the Eastern Conference with an 8-4 road record fell to 2-6 versus teams currently with a winning record following Friday’s 108-92 loss at NBA-best San Antonio.
“The one thing we could not do was turn the basketball over, and in the fourth quarter we totally lost our composure,” Coach Larry Drew said after his team was outscored 37-23 in the final 12 minutes. Atlanta, though, will look to bounce back at home, where it is averaging 109.3 points and shooting 50.3 percent while posting a season-best four straight victories. The Hawks’ last five-game winning streak at home was a 12-game run to end 2009-10. During the last matchup in Atlanta, Josh Smith had 21 points and 13 rebounds and Al Horford added 18 and 12 as the Hawks posted a 94-84 victory on March 28, snapping the Pacers’ season-high tying five-game winning streak.
Atlanta extended its run in this series to seven on Nov. 16, posting a 102-92 victory in Indiana. Despite leading scorer Joe Johnson missing eight of 12 shots and scoring just 11 points, five other Hawks scored in double figures as the club hit 50 percent from the field. “I think that the deeper you are, the better team you are,” Horford said after scoring 15 points in the victory. That depth has helped Atlanta, which is 4-2 since Johnson suffered an elbow injury that could keep him out until mid-January.
The Pacers will be looking to build off Friday’s 100-92 victory over Charlotte, and move two games above .500 for just the second time this season. Indiana has not won or lost more than two in a row all season. While Coach Jim O’Brien’s team has committed 15.7 turnovers per game this season and has been outrebounded by an average of 12.5 over the last two contests, the Pacers are holding teams to 42.7 percent from the field. Indiana limited the Bobcats to 41.3 percent shooting, and improved to 8-3 when holding teams to fewer than 100 points. The Pacers are also among the league leaders with 6.0 blocks per game.
“It just goes to show that you can struggle in a lot of other areas, but if you’re defending well and holding the other team to a low field-goal percentage, you have a chance to win night in and night out,” Mike Dunleavy said. With Smith questionable after leaving in the fourth quarter Friday with a possible hamstring injury, the play of third-year center Roy Hibbert could be key as Indiana tries to snap a three-game road losing streak.
Hibbert, who had 13 points, 14 rebounds and a season-high tying six assists Friday, scored 18 with a career-high 15 boards in last month’s loss to Atlanta. Pacers leading scorer Danny Granger is averaging 28.0 points in the last three games at Philips Arena. Indiana’s last victory in Atlanta was 100-90 on Dec. 22, 2006.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Atlanta by 3; O/U 195
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Atlanta -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Atlanta -2.20
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--ATLANTA is 36-59 ATS (-19.4 Units) in home games after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 100.2, OPPONENT 94.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--ATLANTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a home favorite this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 100.1, OPPONENT 99.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--INDIANA is 46-19 ATS (+25.1 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more since 1996.
The average score was INDIANA 92.4, OPPONENT 96.6 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--INDIANA is 39-20 UNDER (+17.3 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 99.2, OPPONENT 101.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANA is 30-12 UNDER (+16.6 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 98.6, OPPONENT 100.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--ATLANTA is 68-101 against the 1rst half line (-43.1 Units) vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 46.8, OPPONENT 48.0 - (Rating = 5*)
--INDIANA is 61-39 against the 1rst half line (+17.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 53.0, OPPONENT 52.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--INDIANA is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 55.7, OPPONENT 47.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--ATLANTA is 88-59 OVER (+23.1 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 50.5, OPPONENT 50.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--INDIANA is 38-19 OVER (+16.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 52.0, OPPONENT 55.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(74-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +33.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (41-71 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.4
The average score in these games was: Team 95.8, Opponent 98.8 (Average point differential = -3.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 41 (36.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-17).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (159-117).
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*** BOSTON (-6, O/U 189) @ CHARLOTTE ***
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The Boston Celtics hadn’t been challenged very often during the first eight games of their winning streak, but had to go down to the wire to push it to nine. Based on their recent history against the Charlotte Bobcats, they shouldn’t have much trouble extending it to 10. The Celtics beat the Bobcats three times last season by an average of 25 points, dominance they’d love to see continue Saturday night at Time Warner Cable Arena. Boston won its eight games from Nov. 22-Dec. 8 by an average of 14.2 points, but hardly had an easy time Thursday in Philadelphia.
The Celtics have been remarkably efficient shooting the ball during the streak, making 52.6 percent, and they made their most significant attempt count against the 76ers. Kevin Garnett banked in a shot off Rajon Rondo’s alley-oop pass with 1.4 seconds left to lift Boston to a 102-101 win. “It was a gutsy win,” Paul Pierce said. “It didn’t seem like we had it all night. We couldn’t get really consistent momentum in the game or get a consistent flow. But good teams find a way to win. There was good execution down the stretch.”
The Celtics shot 55.9 percent against Philadelphia, but one reason for their consistently impressive percentage is the number of easy looks they’re creating. Boston has averaged 48.4 points in the paint during the streak and is outscoring its opponents inside by 15.1 per game during that stretch. Prior to the winning streak, the Celtics were averaging a 7.7-point edge in the paint. Considering Kendrick Perkins is out until February and Shaquille O’Neal (leg) and Jermaine O’Neal (knee) are nursing injuries, Pierce thinks there’s still plenty of room to improve.
“I keep saying that it’s going to be scary when we get healthy,” Pierce said. “If we continue to win with the bodies that we’re putting out there - I really can’t wait for February and March when we’re healthy.” Shaquille O’Neal missed Thursday’s game and likely won’t be rushed back Saturday, but Boston might not need him. The Celtics held the Bobcats to 76.3 points per game in dominating the teams’ three meetings last season, which included a 92-59 thrashing on Oct. 28. Charlotte hasn’t been able to string together any sort of consistency this season, and that’s largely because of its struggles on the road.
The Bobcats dropped their sixth straight away from home Friday, falling 100-92 at Indiana. “I think our biggest problem is we don’t trust each other,” Coach Larry Brown said. “The ball never leaves one side. If you don’t move the ball, you don’t move your man.” Things have been much better at home, where Charlotte has won three in a row and five of six behind 22.0 points per game from Stephen Jackson and 16.7 from Tyrus Thomas. Thomas, however, missed Friday’s loss with a sore left quadriceps. He’s questionable to face the Celtics, and that’s bad news for the Bobcats. They’re 5-3 when he scores 12 points or more and 3-11 when he scores 11 or fewer or doesn’t play. Charlotte is 3-13 when it fails to shoot at least 49.0 percent.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Boston by 5; O/U 187.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Boston -6.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Boston -6.06
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--CHARLOTTE is 51-28 ATS (+19.8 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 94.8, OPPONENT 94.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHARLOTTE is 58-35 ATS (+19.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 97.2, OPPONENT 97.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 102.6, OPPONENT 95.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--BOSTON is 47-24 UNDER (+19.9 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 96.4, OPPONENT 92.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 35-16 UNDER (+17.3 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 95.5, OPPONENT 90.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--CHARLOTTE is 51-23 against the 1rst half line (+25.5 Units) in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 48.9, OPPONENT 47.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHARLOTTE is 46-25 against the 1rst half line (+18.5 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game since 1996.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 49.3, OPPONENT 50.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--CHARLOTTE is 34-15 UNDER (+17.4 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 47.2, OPPONENT 44.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 64-36 UNDER (+24.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus slow-down teams averaging 76 or less shots/game since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 45.5, OPPONENT 47.0 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - slow-down team averaging 76 or less shots/game on the season against opponent after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less.
(44-18 since 1996.) (71.0%, +24.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 183.7
The average score in these games was: Team 90.1, Opponent 88.5 (Total points scored = 178.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 36 (57.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-5).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - good shooting team - shooting >=46% on the season against opponent after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less.
(92-48 since 1996.) (65.7%, +39.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 93.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.7, Opponent 43.3 (Total first half points scored = 90)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-13).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (30-24).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road favorites vs. the 1rst half line (BOSTON) - hot team - having won 15 or more of their last 20 games against opponent after having won 2 of their last 3 games.
(75-39 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.8%, +32.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.2, Opponent 49.4 (Average first half point differential = -0.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (45-26).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (175-127).
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*** TORONTO @ DETROIT (-2.5, O/U 199) ***
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The Toronto Raptors had little trouble with the Detroit Pistons last season. Their road struggles in 2010-11 may play a major part in keeping that from happening again. The Raptors attempt to end a four-game losing streak by continuing their success against the struggling Pistons on Saturday night. Toronto dominated the Pistons in sweeping all four meetings last season by an average of 15.5 points, matching its win total from the previous 18 matchups. The Raptors outscored Detroit by an average of 22.0 points in their two visits to The Palace of Auburn Hills.
They may have trouble matching that success this season, considering they are 2-9 as the visitor while giving up an average of 108.9 points. Toronto’s overall slide reached four with Friday’s 123-116 home loss to Denver, which was without star forward Carmelo Anthony due to a knee injury. “We can’t play defense for half a game,” Coach Jay Triano said after the Raptors gave up 74 points in the first half. “I thought in the second half we attempted it and that’s all I ask of our guys.”
The Raptors are struggling defensively over the last four games, allowing an average of 119.0 points with opponents shooting 52.1 percent from the floor and 45.0 from 3-point range. Andrea Bargnani is trying to do his part to spark the Toronto offensively. The center leads the Raptors with 21.3 points per game, and scored 24 Friday after setting a career high with 41 in a 113-110 loss at New York two nights prior. He averaged 23.0 points against the Pistons last season, getting 33 in a 111-97 win at Detroit on April 12.
The Pistons have split 10 games at home, but they’ve dropped seven of eight overall and are coming off a 0-3 trip that saw them average 85.3 points while making 39.1 percent of their shots - 28.6 from beyond the arc. They shot 39.6 percent against Toronto last season and may have trouble with Bargnani again after getting outscored 58-26 in the paint during Friday’s 109-99 loss at Minnesota. Coach John Kuester, though, was pleased with his team’s effort.
“Truthfully, I thought we played well,” Kuester said. “It gets down to making sure we become more cognizant of managing certain situations. The basketball didn’t go the way we did.” Richard Hamilton will try to build on his 26-point performance against the Timberwolves after totaling 19 points over the previous two games, getting ejected from one of them.
The swingman, the league leader with three ejections, is averaging 17.4 points in nine home games - nearly four above his overall average. He missed three of four games against Toronto last season and struggled in the other, shooting 6 of 20 and scoring 15 points in a 102-95 road defeat Dec. 27. Hamilton is averaging 19.9 points in his last 11 home matchups with the Raptors, helping Detroit to wins in all of them.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Detroit by 1; O/U 196.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Toronto -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Toronto -1.04
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DETROIT is 48-71 ATS (-30.1 Units) in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game since 1996.
The average score was DETROIT 93.9, OPPONENT 91.1 - (Rating = 5*)
--DETROIT is 42-61 ATS (-25.1 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 92.8, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--DETROIT is 26-10 UNDER (+14.9 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 95.1, OPPONENT 99.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--DETROIT is 20-7 UNDER (+12.3 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 94.2, OPPONENT 101.9 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--DETROIT is 7-21 against the 1rst half line (-15.9 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 47.3, OPPONENT 53.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 16-5 against the 1rst half line (+10.5 Units) as a road underdog of 1.5 points or less vs. the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 51.1, OPPONENT 48.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--TORONTO is 38-17 OVER (+19.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 54.2, OPPONENT 54.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 27-10 OVER (+15.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 52.8, OPPONENT 55.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites (DETROIT) - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%).
(44-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.8%, +16.5 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (36-36 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.7
The average score in these games was: Team 100.1, Opponent 100.6 (Average point differential = -0.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 33 (47.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-8).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-22).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (77-75).
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*** MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO (-10.5, O/U 205.5) ***
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Coming off a victory over the two-time defending NBA champions, the last thing the Chicago Bulls need is a letdown. The Bulls try to prevent that from happening while looking for a season-high fifth consecutive victory as they host the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday night. Chicago matched its longest winning streak of the season by beating the Los Angeles Lakers for the first time in almost four years, 88-84 at home Friday. “It was a big win,” forward Carlos Boozer said. “Hopefully, we can look at this game later on in the playoffs and use it as homework come June.”
The 84 points were a season low for the Lakers and marked the third consecutive game Chicago held an opponent to 90 or fewer points. Oklahoma City, Cleveland and Los Angeles averaged 85.7 points on 39.0 percent shooting against the Bulls during that stretch. “We’ve said (the Bulls) are going to be in the top five or six (teams in the Eastern Conference), but right now, it looks like they’re going to be above that,” former Chicago and current Lakers coach Phil Jackson told the Bulls’ official website.
The Bulls last won five in a row Jan. 22-29. “It feels good,” All-Star guard Derrick Rose said. “We’ve still got a lot more games to go. We’re moving in the right direction.” Though Chicago failed to score 90 points for the second game in a row, Rose posted 29 for the second straight contest. He’s averaged 9.0 assists his last five games. “His will is special,” Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau said.
Boozer had 10 points with 11 rebounds for his second double-double in six games as a Bull. Chicago is 4-2 since Boozer’s debut after he missed the first 15 games with a broken hand. The veteran forward has averaged 17.5 points and 12.5 boards in his last four versus Minnesota. Chicago has won two straight over the Timberwolves, holding them to fewer than 100 points in both contests. The Bulls have a good chance to continue that success while trying to hand Minnesota (6-17) a seventh consecutive road loss.
Though the Timberwolves are 1-11 on the road, they are coming off a 109-99 win over Detroit on Friday. Kevin Love had 27 points with 18 rebounds, Luke Ridnour added 20 points with 10 assists and Darko Milicic recorded a career-high seven blocks as the Timberwolves overcame a 13-point first-quarter deficit to win for the second time in 10 games. “We have to be close there the whole way in order for us to win,” Love said. “That keeps us on our toes. Eventually we’re going to get over it and start accumulating some wins. (Friday) was one of, hopefully, many.”
Love, averaging 20.4 points and 15.7 boards, has an NBA-high 18 double-doubles. He has at least 15 rebounds in nine consecutive games, the longest stretch since Ben Wallace did it in 14 straight contests in 2002-03. The third-year center has averaged 24.9 points and 18.5 boards during that nine-game stretch. However, Love totaled 18 points and 16 rebounds combined in the two losses to Chicago last season.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Chicago by 11.5; O/U 207.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Chicago -12
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Chicago -11.89
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 92-62 ATS (+23.8 Units) vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 94.4, OPPONENT 93.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--MINNESOTA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 96.8, OPPONENT 111.2 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 68-39 UNDER (+24.8 Units) in home games versus foul prone teams - called for 24 or more fouls/game since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 93.1, OPPONENT 89.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHICAGO is 35-17 UNDER (+16.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 101.3, OPPONENT 98.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--MINNESOTA is 18-37 against the 1rst half line (-22.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 48.8, OPPONENT 56.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--MINNESOTA is 24-39 against the 1rst half line (-18.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 49.2, OPPONENT 56.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 66-42 UNDER (+19.8 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus foul prone teams - called for 24 or more fouls/game since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 46.5, OPPONENT 44.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 77-53 UNDER (+18.7 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 49.5, OPPONENT 45.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 46.9, OPPONENT 43.8 - (Rating = 4*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games.
(37-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.1%, +24.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.5, Opponent 48 (Total first half points scored = 96.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (52-44).
--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs (MINNESOTA) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), poor ball handling team (>=16.5 TO's) against an average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's).
(58-27 since 1996.) (68.2%, +28.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (70-17)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.8
The average score in these games was: Team 99.6, Opponent 90.7 (Average point differential = +8.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 30 (35.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
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*** UTAH @ DALLAS (-4.5, O/U 192) ***
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While the Dallas Mavericks have been shooting well lately, it’s their defense that has sparked an 11-game winning streak. The Mavericks seek their seventh consecutive victory at American Airlines Center on Saturday night when they face a Utah Jazz team looking to extend its road winning streak to seven. While Dallas is shooting 50.3 percent from the field over the last four games, the defending Southwest Division champs have limited opponents to 92.6 points per game and 43.3 percent shooting in its 10 victories. It’s the longest streak for Dallas since a 13-game run from Feb. 17-March 10.
The Mavericks’ defense has been even better at home during this run, holding teams to an average of 90.8 points on 41.2 percent shooting in the six victories. “Well, give the credit to the defense,” Caron Butler said following Thursday’s 102-89 victory over New Jersey. “That’s something we’ve honed in on since training camp. And we’re doing a great job of capitalizing on that opportunity of playing home games and winning home games.”
Coach Rick Carlisle, though, knows his team cannot afford a repeat of Thursday when the Mavericks committed 15 turnovers and missed 12 of 16 3-pointers. “We can play better and we are going to have to play better on Saturday,” he said. Carlisle’s team played well on both ends in a 93-81 victory in Utah on Dec. 3. Dirk Nowitzki made 12 of 18 shots and scored a team-high 26 points, while the Mavericks’ zone defense held the Jazz to 39.2 percent shooting. The loss snapped Utah’s season-best seven-game winning streak and a five-game run at home.
The Northwest Division-leading Jazz who play seven of nine on the road beginning Saturday, will try to return the favor as Dallas looks for its first seven-game home win streak since an eight-game run ended March 13. Utah, meanwhile, is one victory shy of its first seven-game road winning streak since Jan. 20-Feb. 21. Deron Williams scored a season-high 32 points and C.J. Miles had 19 of his season-best 26 in the fourth quarter as the Jazz capped off a 4-2 homestand Friday with a 117-105 victory over Orlando.
“They gave me some opportunities to get down the lane and make things happen and I took those,” said Williams, who was held to 12 points and committed four turnovers in the Dec. 3 loss to the Mavericks. The former Dallas-area high school star, though, has played at a high level in nine career games at American Airlines Center, averaging 21.0 points and 8.0 assists. Williams had team highs with 20 points and nine assists as Utah ended a five-game slide in Dallas with a 111-93 victory Jan. 9.
Nowitzki, who had 29 points and eight boards in that defeat, is scoring 24.7 per game on 57.3 percent shooting during the Mavericks’ winning streak. Andrei Kirilenko will likely see plenty of time against the former MVP. Playing with a strained right quadriceps on Friday, the Jazz forward had 13 rebounds, five assists and three blocks. The Mavericks have won 14 of 17 at home in this matchup.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Dallas by 4; O/U 195.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Dallas -5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Dallas -4.66
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 16-35 ATS (-22.5 Units) as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 100.7, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--UTAH is 40-18 ATS (+20.2 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 104.4, OPPONENT 98.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 103.0, OPPONENT 98.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 76-42 UNDER (+29.8 Units) against Northwest division opponents since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 99.1, OPPONENT 95.3 - (Rating = 5*)
--UTAH is 39-19 UNDER (+18.1 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 90.3, OPPONENT 96.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--UTAH is 22-40 against the 1rst half line (-22.0 Units) in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 47.9, OPPONENT 51.4 - (Rating = 4*)
--UTAH is 19-36 against the 1rst half line (-20.6 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 47.4, OPPONENT 50.7 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--UTAH is 25-8 UNDER (+16.4 Units) the 1rst half total in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 45.9, OPPONENT 48.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 26-9 UNDER (+16.3 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 47.4, OPPONENT 49.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (DALLAS) - off a home win by 10 points or more, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.
(96-54 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.0%, +36.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 99.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.3, Opponent 46.8 (Total first half points scored = 96.1)
The situation's record this season is: (5-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (64-33).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (211-154).
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*** CLEVELAND @ HOUSTON (-9.5, O/U 205) ***
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The Houston Rockets did a remarkable job of shutting down the Cleveland Cavaliers at the Toyota Center when LeBron James was on the roster. With the way the Cavaliers are currently constructed, there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue. The Rockets have won four straight at home overall and against the Cavaliers, who have rarely been competitive during a six-game slide they’ll hope to end Saturday night. Houston is two games into a stretch during which it plays 10 of 11 against sub-.500 opponents, a prime opportunity to remove itself from the Southwest Division basement.
The Rockets had no issues beating Detroit on Tuesday, getting a combined 78 points from Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry and Kevin Martin in a 97-83 win however two-thirds of that trio was cold Friday in Milwaukee. Martin had 23 points but Scola and Lowry combined for just 21 on 8-of-28 shooting in a 97-91 loss. “We didn’t do enough,” Lowry said. “We let them get some shots that we shouldn’t have. We made some mental mistakes and mistakes that we could have avoided. And they made us pay for it.” Cleveland has been the team that’s typically been ice cold when it’s traveled to Houston.
The Rockets have won 19 of 22 at home against the Cavaliers, including six of seven when James was around. They’ve been especially impressive during four straight victories, as Houston has held Cleveland to 74.8 points per game and 35.4 percent shooting. After dropping four of five at home to begin the season, the Rockets seem to have turned it around inside the Toyota Center. While winning four straight, they’ve held opponents to 95.3 points per game, an average exactly 10 points fewer than what they’ve yielded the rest of the season. Houston’s accuracy from beyond the arc has helped. The Rockets are shooting 50.7 percent from 3-point range during their home streak, spearheaded by some big games from Shane Batter (11 for 19).
The Cavaliers haven’t lost seven in a row since March 29-April 9, 2004, near the end of James’ rookie season. There’s little evidence to suggest they can score enough - or get enough stops - to keep that from happening Saturday. Cleveland has given up 110.0 points per game and scored 90.7 during its six-game skid. The Cavaliers appeared on the verge of emerging from their funk Wednesday against Chicago, but a disastrous fourth quarter kept that from happening. Cleveland blew an eight-point lead in the final 12 minutes, losing 88-83.
Though he wasn’t happy, Coach Byron Scott wasn’t questioning the Cavaliers’ effort like he had after the team’s 20-point loss in Philadelphia a night earlier. “We played hard for 48 minutes,” Scott said. “If we play hard like that, I can live with that.” Scott made some changes to his lineup following the loss to the 76ers. Joey Graham who had started eight of the Cavs’ last nine games, didn’t play, nor did guard Ramon Sessions. Jamario Moon who started the team’s first 12 contests, was inactive.
Antawn Jamison made his first start against Chicago and scored 21 points, but the player Cleveland really needs to get going is point guard Mo Williams. The Cavaliers are 4-0 when he scores at least 22 points and 1-12 when he’s been healthy and scored 21 or fewer.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Houston by 10.5, O/U 199.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Houston -11
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Houston -10.96
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--CLEVELAND is 63-92 ATS (-38.2 Units) in road games after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog since 1996.
The average score was CLEVELAND 89.1, OPPONENT 97.6 - (Rating = 5*)
--CLEVELAND is 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) in road games after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games since 1996.
The average score was CLEVELAND 89.4, OPPONENT 101.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
The average score was CLEVELAND 87.5, OPPONENT 100.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 1-11 ATS (-10.9 Units) in road games vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 95.8, OPPONENT 106.5 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--HOUSTON is 108-77 UNDER (+23.3 Units) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game since 1996.
The average score was HOUSTON 95.7, OPPONENT 90.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--CLEVELAND is 161-123 UNDER (+25.7 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was CLEVELAND 95.3, OPPONENT 94.4 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--HOUSTON is 56-33 against the 1rst half line (+19.7 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 50.6, OPPONENT 49.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 0-10 against the 1rst half line (-11.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 46.8, OPPONENT 57.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--CLEVELAND is 0-9 against the 1rst half line (-9.9 Units) after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 44.7, OPPONENT 55.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--HOUSTON is 99-66 UNDER (+26.4 Units) the 1rst half total against Central division opponents since 1996.
The average score was HOUSTON 47.3, OPPONENT 45.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--HOUSTON is 49-28 UNDER (+17.8 Units) the 1rst half total as a home favorite vs. the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 51.2, OPPONENT 47.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (CLEVELAND) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games.
(37-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.1%, +24.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.5, Opponent 48 (Total first half points scored = 96.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (52-44).
--PLAY ON - Home teams (HOUSTON) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games.
(43-17 since 1996.) (71.7%, +24.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (48-13)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6
The average score in these games was: Team 101.2, Opponent 92 (Average point differential = +9.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 28 (46.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-7).
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*** MIAMI (-8, O/U 195.5) @ SACRAMENTO ***
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It seems the Miami Heat’s early season struggles are behind them. If the Sacramento Kings are to slow them down, they’ll likely need a similar effort to their latest victory. Miami puts its seven-game winning streak on the line Saturday night in Sacramento, where the Heat have won five of their last six visits. Many questioned Miami after it got off to a sluggish 9-8 start to the season. Since then, the Heat have set a franchise record by winning seven straight by 10 or more points, including Friday night’s dominant 106-84 victory against Golden State.
With the win, Miami moved into first place in the Southeast Division for the first time this season as Orlando’s losing streak reached four in Utah. The Heat lead the NBA with 13 double-digit victories, and the winning streak is Miami’s longest since it won nine straight from March 20-April 7. Dwyane Wade had 34 points Friday despite taking an inadvertent elbow to the head from Warriors center Andris Biedrins less than a minute into the game, and LeBron James added 25. “Me and D-Wade have figured it out,” James said.
“We just started going back to our games, what made us who we are in this league. It’s resulted in us playing good basketball, offensively and defensively.” Wade said the winning streak is a sign the Heat are beginning to live up to expectations, but that Miami still has a long way to go. “It’s good but it doesn’t mean anything. It’s still early in the season,” Wade said. “Right now what’s good is that we’ve won seven straight playing good basketball. We can’t have any letdowns.”
The Heat have beaten the Kings in 12 of the last 13 meetings, and Saturday’s contest seems to be another mismatch. Sacramento snapped an eight-game losing streak Wednesday with a 116-91 victory against Washington. Jason Thompson had season highs of 22 points and 14 rebounds for the Kings, who have lost 14 of 16 since starting the season 3-1. It was only Thompson’s fourth double-digit scoring effort this season, and only his second 20-point performance in his last 68 games.
“We played a full 48 minutes, which we hadn’t experienced in a while,” Thompson said. “We got stops, we pushed the ball, and that’s when we’re at our best.” Sacramento hasn’t been at its best much this season, one reason being the struggles of reigning rookie of the year Tyreke Evans. Evans, who is averaging 17.1 points but shooting only 39.7 percent, had an MRI on his left foot Friday, but the team said he will play through an inflamed arch and be on the court Saturday.
Undrafted rookie guard Pooh Jeter chipped in with a season-high 13 points as the Kings built a 32-point lead against the Wizards. “We had a nice lead and (Jeter) came in and helped us up it and put the game away,” Coach Paul Westphal said. None of Sacramento’s wins this season have come against teams over .500.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Miami by 10.5; O/U 197
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Miami -11
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -13.27
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--SACRAMENTO is 37-56 ATS (-24.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 101.9, OPPONENT 105.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--SACRAMENTO is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 98.6, OPPONENT 105.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--SACRAMENTO is 1-9 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 89.2, OPPONENT 101.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--SACRAMENTO is 29-13 UNDER (+14.5 Units) after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 94.8, OPPONENT 102.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 130-92 UNDER (+28.8 Units) after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 92.4, OPPONENT 91.3 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--SACRAMENTO is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) after one or more consecutive overs this season.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 47.6, OPPONENT 56.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--SACRAMENTO is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) after a combined score of 205 points or more this season.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 47.6, OPPONENT 56.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 35-16 against the 1rst half line (+17.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 52.2, OPPONENT 46.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 37-20 against the 1rst half line (+15.0 Units) in road games off a road win by 10 points or more since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 50.1, OPPONENT 45.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--SACRAMENTO is 50-28 OVER (+19.2 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after having lost 4 of their last 5 games since 1996.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 53.3, OPPONENT 51.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--SACRAMENTO is 32-13 OVER (+17.6 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 51.5, OPPONENT 55.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY ON - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (MIAMI) - after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more.
(32-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +24.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 54, Opponent 46.5 (Average first half point differential = +7.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (27-6).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (48-25).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team (SACRAMENTO) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more.
(55-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.5%, +29.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 197.5
The average score in these games was: Team 94, Opponent 97.5 (Total points scored = 191.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 47 (59.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-19).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (113-72).
hno:
