hno:
Computer sports picks-nba
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Saturday, 5 December 2009
Away Homes AS HS Team1% D% Team2% Game Total
Philadelphia Charlotte 92 97 35,00% 0,00% 65,00% 190
Toronto Chicago 96 102 30,00% 3,00% 67,00% 198
Utah Minnesota 102 93 77,00% 4,00% 19,00% 195
Denver San Antonio 102 103 45,00% 3,00% 52,00% 205
Atlanta Dallas 95 99 38,00% 1,00% 61,00% 194
Sacramento Phoenix 102 105 37,00% 4,00% 59,00% 207
Houston Portland 99 98 57,00% 5,00% 38,00% 197
Orlando Golden State 106 99 66,00% 2,00% 32,00% 205
Indiana LA Clippers 95 104 25,00% 2,00% 73,00% 199
Picks:
1. Dallas- Atlanta Under 204.5
2. Phoenix - Sacramento Under 225.5
3. Golden State - Orlando Under 221
4. LA Clippers- Indiana LA Clippers-2.5
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Saturday, 5 December 2009
Away Homes AS HS Team1% D% Team2% Game Total
Philadelphia Charlotte 92 97 35,00% 0,00% 65,00% 190
Toronto Chicago 96 102 30,00% 3,00% 67,00% 198
Utah Minnesota 102 93 77,00% 4,00% 19,00% 195
Denver San Antonio 102 103 45,00% 3,00% 52,00% 205
Atlanta Dallas 95 99 38,00% 1,00% 61,00% 194
Sacramento Phoenix 102 105 37,00% 4,00% 59,00% 207
Houston Portland 99 98 57,00% 5,00% 38,00% 197
Orlando Golden State 106 99 66,00% 2,00% 32,00% 205
Indiana LA Clippers 95 104 25,00% 2,00% 73,00% 199
Picks:
1. Dallas- Atlanta Under 204.5
2. Phoenix - Sacramento Under 225.5
3. Golden State - Orlando Under 221
4. LA Clippers- Indiana LA Clippers-2.5
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50 Dime --- WASHINGTON (Buy the 1/2 point up if your line is +6 1/2 or +7.)
10 Dime --- Texas-Nebraska UNDER
WASHINGTON HUSKIES (buy the half point up to +7 1/2 if your line is 7 or up to +7 if your line happens to slip to 6 1/2.)
While everyone else in the world is pandering about, trying to figure out which side of the Alabama/Florida game to play, I'll be counting my blessings by backing a team that's flying under the radar today... and that's the Washington Huskies. Vegas definitely did their homework this weekend as I see several lines that are really, really good. This one is NOT one of them.
Despite being just 4-7 on the season, you have to be impressed with what Steve Sarkisian has been able to do with this program in his first season at the helm. This is basically the same group of kids that went winless in 2008 (including a loss to lowly Washington State), but Sarks has this bunch believing they can win every time they take the field, and what better way to send their coach into the off-season than by winning their final home game of the season? This is it for Washington... they don't get a bowl game... this is their bowl game.
With a win today, the Huskies will have won five more games than it won all of last year and one more than they've won the last two years combined. And it's not like we're talking about backing a crappy team here... the Huskies can play... and they can score points. They've averaged 26 PPG over their last three and 28 PPG at home, and it's not like Cal's defense is something to write home about (we'll get to them in a minute).
The Huskies found themselves in a similar situation a few years ago hosting this same Cal team... they were struggling to win games at the end of the year, Cal was pushing towards an 8 or 9-win campaign, they already knew they were going bowling and didn't really put a lot of thought into the game with Washington. They entered Husky Stadium as 7-point favorites... and left 37-23 losers. Washington didn't have anything to lose and used trick plays to keep the Cal defense and special teams off balance all day. Cal didn't care, Washington did.
So what's different today? Not much. Cal beats Arizona and Stanford after it looked like they were dead, which inflates our line today to where we are getting more than a touchdown... and that's simply too much. Washington uses as bye week to heal QB Jake Locker and pummel arch-rival Washington State 30-0. They'll use that game as momentum towards this season finale. But it's not only the season-ender for Washington, it could be the end of a fine career for Locker. Pro scouts have said Locker should be a top 10 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft and it's hard to believe that, with everything that happened to Sam Bradford, Locker will be back next season. This game could be his last as a member of the Washington Huskies... and he wants to go out with one last bang --- for his teammates, for the seniors, for his new coaches, for the fans and for his University. Jake Locker, at 100%, is the better of the two QBs on the field today as he can pass and run equally well.
As for Cal, what do they really have to play for? Let's be honest... the writing is one the wall for them. They basically know they are headed to the Sun Bowl to take on the Oklahoma Sooners. No, it's not set in stone, but every possible scenario has them preparing for a trip to El Paso, Texas to face a very dangerous Oklahoma team. Although I can't prove it, I'm quite certain the Bears have already been laying out the game plan for Oklahoma as, win or lose today, this game means very little. Now, I'm not saying they want to lose any game, but how can you get these kids excited for a trip to Washington to play a 4-7 team after what they did to Arizona and Stanford in their prior two games?
Cal's defense will be their Achilles heel, as they've allowed over 400 yards of offense to five different Pac 10 schools, including lowly Washington State and UCLA... two of the worst offenses in the Pac 10. I can assure you this... if they give up over 400 yards of offense, they aren't leaving Seattle with a win.
When that same Washington State team came to Seattle last weekend, they were completely baffled at the speed of the Washington front four. DC Nick Holt said he's excited to get one more chance to prove last week's shutout wasn't a fluke. He believes his defense is playing as good as its played all season right now, and they return at least 7 of those starters next year. They limited Washington State to just 67 yards rushing... not bad for a team that had been allowing 155 per game on the ground. And they're going to need every bit of that magic they had last week when Shane Vereen brings in his impressive rushing average into Seattle. His biggest downfall will be the wear-and-tear on his body from a 42-carry evening at Stanford in his last game. That's a lot of pounding for a backup RB.
Overall, Cal probably has a little more talent than Washington, but they just absolutely choke when listed as the favorite... especially in the Pac 10. They've covered just 2 of their last 11 games as a Pac 10 favorite and they're just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games on the road. And how's this for a useful (or useless) trend... the Bears are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 when laying three or more to a team playing on revenge (Cal beat Washington 48-7 last year) and having won their last game by double digits. They're also 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing on the road after a week of rest. Washington is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 when facing a team that comes in having won two in a row both SU and ATS.
I'll take my chances with the offensive mastermind, Steve Sarkisian, over a guy who has proven to flounder late in the season, year after year (Jeff Tedford). Seattle will be absolutely rocking this weekend as the Huskies look to beat Cal today and the Seahawks look to beat San Francisco tomorrow. Should be a great weekend for fans in the greater Seattle area. Top play of the day on Washington PLUS the points.
TEXAS/NEBRASKA UNDER --- It should tell you something that this total opened at 46 1/2 and was bet down to 43 1/2 mid-week. All of the "smart money" drove that thing down three points, and now I'm seeing it anywhere from 47 to 48 1/2. Obviously you need to shop around for the best total, but if you can get this thing around 46 or better, consider yourself lucky.
Forget what these two offenses have done this year... I want you to focus on the defenses. Texas allows just 15 points per game while the Huskers yield only 11. Nebraska hasn't allowed more than 17 points in a game (and no, I don't count the 20 points they allowed to Colorado because that was a crappy 60-yard TD pass with no time left in garbage time) since October 17 when Texas Tech scored 31. And despite those 31 points, that game still went way under the total of 58.
Texas, meanwhile, has been equally good on the defensive side of the ball, except for their rival game down in College Station last week. But the strength of this defense is stopping opposing running games. They have been unbelievably impressive, allowing just 61 yards per game on the ground. If you are going to beat Texas, you're going to do it through the air... something Nebraska simply can't do. I take you back to both of these teams' matchups with Oklahoma, because I think we're going to see something similar today. Oklahoma came into Lincoln as a small favorite and a total of 43 points... the final score, 10-3. It was strength vs. strength which kept this score relatively low. Oklahoma and Texas met in Dallas back in October. Again, strength vs. strength... final score: 16-13.
I'm sorry, but this total is simply too high. Nebraska's passing game flat out sucks, so they'll be thrilled with the "three yards and a cloud of dust" theory. Texas, meanwhile, would also like to keep this game on the ground... which plays right into our hands.
I'm looking for something in the neighborhood of a 24-10 or 27-13 outcome... easily under the posted total.
