DAVID MALINSKY
4* TEXAS over KANSAS STATE
One of the first things we look for in November are those high level programs that are having disappointing seasons, when we see the public write them off. The better the program the better the talent, obviously, and in many cases the better the talent the more pride they bring. While we read media reports talking about such good teams “packing it in” for the season (as the coaches and players also read), we often find the opposite – good competitors that are frustrated by losing, and keep working hard to right the ship. Many times, in fact, seeing the media and their own fans belittle them brings an even greater sense of urgency going forward.
Which brings us to Texas, as a program, and this short line, courtesy of the betting markets, that we have to work with in this matchup. We can understand the power ratings dropping – if you lose to U.C.L.A, Iowa State and Baylor at home that should happen. But not this far. This is still the same kind of talent base that has been in BCS bowls four times in the last six seasons, twice playing for the national championship, and take particular note of the realities of those three defeats – they led those games by 19 first downs and 238 yards on the field, but did not get the ball to bounce their way often, going -6 in turnovers.
Last week’s loss to Baylor, an expensive one for our pockets, was a good example. They controlled the early flow as expected, but consistently came up short in the red zone, leading only 19-10 midway through the third quarter because they had to settle for four made FG’s. Yet one more drive stalled, courtesy of an offensive pass interference penalty, and instead of 26-10 or 22-10 it stayed on 19 when a FG attempt was missed. Then came the kind of sequence that has haunted them all season – Baylor broke a 69-yard TD run on the next snap, then got a quick INT on a tipped pass on the ensuing Longhorn possession, returning it to the 11-yard line to set up another quick TD. And there goes the game.
Texas will not be beaten by quick strikes this week – Kansas State lacks such ability, and did not have a play of longer than 17 yards in last week’s loss to Oklahoma State. That means a chance for the superior talent to take control over the course of 60 minutes, and note just how wide the gap is – these two teams have played four common opponents this season, and Texas wins those comparisons by 24 first downs and 724 yards. The latter figure is as wide as we are ever going to find in a game in this price range, but the scoreboards hid that, because the Wildcats were a net +9 in turnovers vs. the Longhorns in those games.
Do the Longhorns bring the proper psychological profile to take advantage? We like what we are reading, especially from Mack Brown, in terms of wanting to play hard to prove the naysayers wrong - ”We had 101,000 consultants (Saturday night). None of them were paid. … When you’re losing, people want you to do all sorts of things. You should fire coaches, fire players, and burn the building. That’s not the way you win. We’ve played around here with a great attitude for a long time. … I’m not worried about anything except this football team getting better and getting back to where we were, and we will do both.” They do not need to do all that much here to cover this bargain-basement price, and we take full advantage.
