Larry Ness' 20* PERFECT STORM-CFB (7-3, 70% in CFB '09)
My 20* PERFECT STORM is on Ariozna at 8:00 ET. USC has won the last seven Pac 10 titles but the Trojans have all been but eliminated in 2009. The Ducks are the league's only remaining team with one loss in conference play and they would secure a spot in Pasadena by beating the Wildcats (an Oregon win officially eliminates USC) and then in-state rival Oregon State on December 3. The Wildcats are 4-2 in Pac 10 play, joining Oregon St and Stanford with two league losses. However, like Oregon, the Wildcats control their own destiny as they would capture the Pac 10 crown by beating Oregon here at home and then finishing the season with wins at ASU and USC (hardly an easy chore!). It's been quite a three-week run for Oregon. The Ducks piled up 613 total yards (391 rushing) while handing USC its worst loss (47-20) since 1997 back on Oct 31. The 47 points were the most the Trojans had allowed since 1996. The following Saturday, Toby Gerhart rushed for a school-record 223 yards and three scores, helping Stanford stop Oregon's seven-game win streak (Oregon allowed 505 total yards). Oregon then beat Arizona State 44-21 this past Saturday, holding the Sun Devils to 212 total yards. RB James has stepped in after Blount was suspended after the Boise St game (Blount was reinstated LW but did not play) and leads an Oregon rushing attack which averaged 237.0 YPG (5.5 YPC). James has run for 1,193 yards (7.0 YPC / 11 TDs) while QB Masoli has added 558 yards (6.3 YPC / 9 TDs). Masoli got off to a horrible start this year, completing 45.3% without a TD pass and two INTs after three games. He's since completed 64.7% of his passes (11 TDs and just one INT) in playing six of Oregon's last seven games (missed UCLA game with an injury). The Oregon defense has been solid, holding opponents to 312.3 YPG (22nd) and 20.9 PPG (27th). Arizona would have to make quite a "closing run" to beat Oregon, ASU and USC but Saturday, the Wildcats only need to beat the Ducks. Sophomore QB Foles has completed 69.7% with 13 TDs and six INTs. The running game has no star but averages an impressive 187.1 YPG and 5.2 YPC for great balance. Mike Stoops owns a solid defense as Arizona is allowing 307.4 YPG (18th) and 22.2 PPG (44th). Arizona had averaged 37.6 PPG in its first five Pac-10 games before struggling against Cal last week in a 24-16 loss. The Wildcats totaled season lows in points and rushing yards (73) as starting RB Nic Grigsby was sidelined with a shoulder problem. QB Nick Foles attempted 41 passes but threw for just 201 yards. However, Grigsby (leading rusher with 535 yards) is listed as probable this week and let's look at how well Arizona has played at home. The Wildcats are 5-0 in 2009, averaging a whopping 39.3 PPG in three conference home games (also held Central Michigan which is 9-2 and averaging 33.3 PPG in 2009 to just six points here in Tucson). Going back to LY, the Wildcats are 10-2 SU at home losing only to then-No. 5 USC 17-10 and Oregon State, 7-2 LY in the Pac10, 19-17 (both last year). All the pressure is on Oregon which has been one whirlwind of a four-game stretch. The Ducks are seeking to clinch their first Rose Bowl bid since 1995 and a win won't come easy. In fact, I don't think a win will come at all. PERFECT STORM 20* Arizona.