Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
COLORADO STATE +1
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the visitors:
The Rams remain upbeat despite a six-game losing streak that has wiped out all the momentum built from the team’s best start in 15 years.
Look for QB Grant Stucker to return to the form which saw him have a 10-6 TD-to-INT ration in CSU's first five games.
After forcing 12 turnovers in the first four games, CSU has only five takeaways the last five weeks; look for a more concerted effort on both sides of the ball this week.
It's true that Colorado State is is 1-4 ATS its last five overall, however don't forget it's 4-1 ATS its last five vs. UNLV.
On the other side of the field: The Rebels are coming off a 41-0 blanking by the Horned Frogs and must once again run the table to achieve their bowl game goal; I expect a letdown tonight.
It figures CSU will pick up where it left off in last year’s 41-28 comeback win in Fort Collins, when the Rams rushed for 216 yards. UNLV’s defense, which could be without standout junior LB Starr Fuimaono (ankle), has struggled against the run this year, allowing an average of 212.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry. The Rebels have surrendered 18 rushing TDs this year, worst in the Mountain West Conference.
Not only is UNLV 1-5 SU its last six, its also 1-6 ATS its last seven overall.
Bottom line: Look for COLORADO STATE to do just enough in this one to sneak away with the road victory!
*7* COLORADO ST.[/FONT]