Harry Bondi
Daily Free Pick
College Football
UTEP (-9) over Rice
9 p.m. EST
Simply a bad match up for the pedestrian Owls, who don't have the firepower to keep up with a UTEP offense that is primed and ready to explode today. The emergence of WR Kris Adams after a disappointing 2009 season has helped UTEP spread out the defense and gives talented QB Trevor Vittatoe the deep threat he has been lacking the last few years. The Miners have too much firepower for the Owls and will improve to 5-1 for the first time since the 2005 season here during their homecoming game. Lay the points.
Daily Free Pick
College Football
UTEP (-9) over Rice
9 p.m. EST
Simply a bad match up for the pedestrian Owls, who don't have the firepower to keep up with a UTEP offense that is primed and ready to explode today. The emergence of WR Kris Adams after a disappointing 2009 season has helped UTEP spread out the defense and gives talented QB Trevor Vittatoe the deep threat he has been lacking the last few years. The Miners have too much firepower for the Owls and will improve to 5-1 for the first time since the 2005 season here during their homecoming game. Lay the points.
HRC NCAA PREMIUM-Saturday, October 9th
Capper: Robcat (Handicappers Paradise)
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2* Action (non-rated)
5* Selection
8* Premium
10* Premium
15* Diamond
*******************************
Selections:
[319] Michigan State |5*|+4.5|B+0|Network N/A|@ 3:30 pm EST
[360] Florida |5*|-6.5|B+0|Metwork N/A|@ 7:30 pm EST
[375] Floriday State-Miami UNDER |5*|48.5|B+0|Network N/A|@ 8:00 pm EST
[384] Washington State |5*|+36.5|B+0|Network N/A|@ 5:00 pm EST
Capper: Robcat (Handicappers Paradise)
========================
2* Action (non-rated)
5* Selection
8* Premium
10* Premium
15* Diamond
*******************************
Selections:
[319] Michigan State |5*|+4.5|B+0|Network N/A|@ 3:30 pm EST
[360] Florida |5*|-6.5|B+0|Metwork N/A|@ 7:30 pm EST
[375] Floriday State-Miami UNDER |5*|48.5|B+0|Network N/A|@ 8:00 pm EST
[384] Washington State |5*|+36.5|B+0|Network N/A|@ 5:00 pm EST
A.REDDDS
Saturday's Plays
20 Dime Release on Northern Illinois over Temple. As this play is releasid at 7 AM Eastern, the Huskies are currentnly a 3 1/2 point favorite pretty much everywhere here in Vegas and offshore.
20 Dime Release on Wyoming as the road dog over TCU. As this play is releasid at 7 AM Eastern, the Cowboys are currentnly getting 35 points in this contest.
20 Dime Release on Wake Forest as the home dog over Navy. As this play is releasid at 7 AM Eastern, the Demon Deacons are currentnly getting between 3 and 3 1/2 points in this contest depending on where you shop.
10 Dime Release on Eastern Michigan as the road dog over Vanderbilt. As this play is releasid at 7 AM Eastern, the Eagles are currentnly getting 25 points in this contest.
10 Dime Release on Kentucky as the home dog over Auburn. As this play is releasid at 7 AM Eastern, the Wildcats are currentnly getting between 6 and 6 1/2 points in this contest.
10 Dime Release on Purdue as the road dog over Northwestern. As this play is releasid at 7 AM Eastern, the Boilermakers are currentnly getting 8 1/2 points in this contest.
Saturday's Plays
20 Dime Release on Northern Illinois over Temple. As this play is releasid at 7 AM Eastern, the Huskies are currentnly a 3 1/2 point favorite pretty much everywhere here in Vegas and offshore.
20 Dime Release on Wyoming as the road dog over TCU. As this play is releasid at 7 AM Eastern, the Cowboys are currentnly getting 35 points in this contest.
20 Dime Release on Wake Forest as the home dog over Navy. As this play is releasid at 7 AM Eastern, the Demon Deacons are currentnly getting between 3 and 3 1/2 points in this contest depending on where you shop.
10 Dime Release on Eastern Michigan as the road dog over Vanderbilt. As this play is releasid at 7 AM Eastern, the Eagles are currentnly getting 25 points in this contest.
10 Dime Release on Kentucky as the home dog over Auburn. As this play is releasid at 7 AM Eastern, the Wildcats are currentnly getting between 6 and 6 1/2 points in this contest.
10 Dime Release on Purdue as the road dog over Northwestern. As this play is releasid at 7 AM Eastern, the Boilermakers are currentnly getting 8 1/2 points in this contest.
DCI
Saturday, October 9, 2010
Atlantic Coast Conference
GEORGIA TECH 31, Virginia 20
MIAMI (FLA.) 27, Florida State 24
NC STATE 35, Boston College 16
NORTH CAROLINA 29, Clemson 20
Big 12 Conference
MISSOURI 32, Colorado 23
Texas Tech 31, Baylor 30
Big East Conference
SOUTH FLORIDA 26, Syracuse 19
Big Ten Conference
Michigan State vs. MICHIGAN: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NORTHWESTERN 34, Purdue 16
OHIO STATE 44, Indiana 16
PENN STATE 28, Illinois 12
WISCONSIN 36, Minnesota 18
Mid-American Conference
BALL STATE 32, Western Michigan 16
KENT STATE 32, Akron 14
OHIO 31, Bowling Green State 25
Temple 30, NORTHERN ILLINOIS 21
Mountain West Conference
AIR FORCE 39, Colorado State 6
BYU 28, San Diego State 24
TCU 34, Wyoming 10
Pacific-10 Conference
ARIZONA 31, Oregon State 24
CALIFORNIA 28, Ucla 23
Oregon 57, WASHINGTON STATE 19
STANFORD 42, Usc 27
WASHINGTON 34, Arizona State 24
Southeastern Conference
Alabama 33, SOUTH CAROLINA 9
Auburn 37, KENTUCKY 26
FLORIDA 25, Lsu 14
Tennessee 25, GEORGIA 24
Sun Belt Conference
Arkansas State 29, NORTH TEXAS 27
FIU 37, Western Kentucky 27
Florida Atlantic 26, ULM 24
Conference USA
SOUTHERN MISS 35, East Carolina 27
Tulsa vs. SMU: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
UTEP 39, Rice 28
Western Athletic Conference
FRESNO STATE 40, Hawai'i 32
NEVADA 49, San Jose State 7
Utah State vs. LOUISIANA TECH: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
FBS Non-Conference
Arkansas 39, Texas A&M 26
Army 24, TULANE 22
BOISE STATE 49, Toledo 12
CINCINNATI 41, Miami (Ohio) 17
LOUISVILLE 34, Memphis 17
Mississippi State 35, HOUSTON 34
Navy 25, WAKE FOREST 23
NEW MEXICO STATE 31, New Mexico 28
Pittsburgh 28, NOTRE DAME 25
Utah 30, IOWA STATE 23
VANDERBILT 40, Eastern Michigan 14
VIRGINIA TECH 41, Central Michigan 12
WEST VIRGINIA 36, Unlv 12
Big Sky Conference
EASTERN WASHINGTON 38, Northern Arizona 27
MONTANA 47, Idaho State 6
MONTANA STATE 47, Portland State 23
SACRAMENTO STATE 42, Northern Colorado 26
Big South Conference
LIBERTY 37, Charleston Southern 22
STONY BROOK 37, Vmi 17
Colonial Athletic Association
DELAWARE 24, Maine 6
James Madison 31, TOWSON 9
Richmond vs. NEW HAMPSHIRE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
WILLIAM & MARY 36, Rhode Island 9
Great West Conference
NORTH DAKOTA 31, Southern Utah 26
South Dakota 30, UC DAVIS 28
Ivy League
DARTMOUTH 18, Yale 17
HARVARD 32, Cornell 3
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
BETHUNE-COOKMAN 31, Delaware State 15
Morgan State 23, NORTH CAROLINA A&T 17
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE 31, Norfolk State 10
Missouri Valley Conference
Illinois State 41, INDIANA STATE 19
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 19, Western Illinois 18
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 24, Northern Iowa 17
YOUNGSTOWN STATE 27, North Dakota State 23
Northeast Conference
ALBANY 34, Saint Francis (Pa.) 6
BRYANT 29, Sacred Heart 21
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE 28, Duquesne 22
ROBERT MORRIS 28, Monmouth 14
Ohio Valley Conference
AUSTIN PEAY 31, Tennessee Tech 28
EASTERN KENTUCKY 24, Eastern Illinois 18
Jacksonville State 38, TENNESSEE-MARTIN 24
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE 25, Tennessee State 13
Pioneer League
Butler 19, DAVIDSON 15
Dayton 27, SAN DIEGO 21
JACKSONVILLE 31, Drake 19
Marist 29, VALPARAISO 12
Southern Conference
APPALACHIAN STATE 37, Elon 20
Chattanooga 33, THE CITADEL 18
GEORGIA SOUTHERN 31, Wofford 24
WESTERN CAROLINA 22, Samford 20
Southland Conference
CENTRAL ARKANSAS 33, Northwestern State 12
Sam Houston State 39, NICHOLLS STATE 27
Stephen F. Austin 39, MCNEESE STATE 25
Texas State 35, SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 26
Southwestern Athletic Conference
GRAMBLING 33, Alabama State 9
JACKSON STATE 19, Alabama A&M 16
SOUTHERN 35, Mississippi Valley State 12
Texas Southern 27, ALCORN STATE 21
FCS Non-Conference
Brown 24, HOLY CROSS 20
Cal Poly 27, OLD DOMINION 26
Colgate vs. PRINCETON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
COLUMBIA 27, Lafayette 16
FURMAN 41, Howard 9
GEORGIA STATE 34, Savannah State 16
Hampton 23, NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL 21
LEHIGH 30, Fordham 18
Missouri State 41, MURRAY STATE 19
Penn 39, BUCKNELL 0
Wagner vs. GEORGETOWN: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Saturday, October 9, 2010
Atlantic Coast Conference
GEORGIA TECH 31, Virginia 20
MIAMI (FLA.) 27, Florida State 24
NC STATE 35, Boston College 16
NORTH CAROLINA 29, Clemson 20
Big 12 Conference
MISSOURI 32, Colorado 23
Texas Tech 31, Baylor 30
Big East Conference
SOUTH FLORIDA 26, Syracuse 19
Big Ten Conference
Michigan State vs. MICHIGAN: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NORTHWESTERN 34, Purdue 16
OHIO STATE 44, Indiana 16
PENN STATE 28, Illinois 12
WISCONSIN 36, Minnesota 18
Mid-American Conference
BALL STATE 32, Western Michigan 16
KENT STATE 32, Akron 14
OHIO 31, Bowling Green State 25
Temple 30, NORTHERN ILLINOIS 21
Mountain West Conference
AIR FORCE 39, Colorado State 6
BYU 28, San Diego State 24
TCU 34, Wyoming 10
Pacific-10 Conference
ARIZONA 31, Oregon State 24
CALIFORNIA 28, Ucla 23
Oregon 57, WASHINGTON STATE 19
STANFORD 42, Usc 27
WASHINGTON 34, Arizona State 24
Southeastern Conference
Alabama 33, SOUTH CAROLINA 9
Auburn 37, KENTUCKY 26
FLORIDA 25, Lsu 14
Tennessee 25, GEORGIA 24
Sun Belt Conference
Arkansas State 29, NORTH TEXAS 27
FIU 37, Western Kentucky 27
Florida Atlantic 26, ULM 24
Conference USA
SOUTHERN MISS 35, East Carolina 27
Tulsa vs. SMU: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
UTEP 39, Rice 28
Western Athletic Conference
FRESNO STATE 40, Hawai'i 32
NEVADA 49, San Jose State 7
Utah State vs. LOUISIANA TECH: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
FBS Non-Conference
Arkansas 39, Texas A&M 26
Army 24, TULANE 22
BOISE STATE 49, Toledo 12
CINCINNATI 41, Miami (Ohio) 17
LOUISVILLE 34, Memphis 17
Mississippi State 35, HOUSTON 34
Navy 25, WAKE FOREST 23
NEW MEXICO STATE 31, New Mexico 28
Pittsburgh 28, NOTRE DAME 25
Utah 30, IOWA STATE 23
VANDERBILT 40, Eastern Michigan 14
VIRGINIA TECH 41, Central Michigan 12
WEST VIRGINIA 36, Unlv 12
Big Sky Conference
EASTERN WASHINGTON 38, Northern Arizona 27
MONTANA 47, Idaho State 6
MONTANA STATE 47, Portland State 23
SACRAMENTO STATE 42, Northern Colorado 26
Big South Conference
LIBERTY 37, Charleston Southern 22
STONY BROOK 37, Vmi 17
Colonial Athletic Association
DELAWARE 24, Maine 6
James Madison 31, TOWSON 9
Richmond vs. NEW HAMPSHIRE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
WILLIAM & MARY 36, Rhode Island 9
Great West Conference
NORTH DAKOTA 31, Southern Utah 26
South Dakota 30, UC DAVIS 28
Ivy League
DARTMOUTH 18, Yale 17
HARVARD 32, Cornell 3
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
BETHUNE-COOKMAN 31, Delaware State 15
Morgan State 23, NORTH CAROLINA A&T 17
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE 31, Norfolk State 10
Missouri Valley Conference
Illinois State 41, INDIANA STATE 19
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 19, Western Illinois 18
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 24, Northern Iowa 17
YOUNGSTOWN STATE 27, North Dakota State 23
Northeast Conference
ALBANY 34, Saint Francis (Pa.) 6
BRYANT 29, Sacred Heart 21
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE 28, Duquesne 22
ROBERT MORRIS 28, Monmouth 14
Ohio Valley Conference
AUSTIN PEAY 31, Tennessee Tech 28
EASTERN KENTUCKY 24, Eastern Illinois 18
Jacksonville State 38, TENNESSEE-MARTIN 24
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE 25, Tennessee State 13
Pioneer League
Butler 19, DAVIDSON 15
Dayton 27, SAN DIEGO 21
JACKSONVILLE 31, Drake 19
Marist 29, VALPARAISO 12
Southern Conference
APPALACHIAN STATE 37, Elon 20
Chattanooga 33, THE CITADEL 18
GEORGIA SOUTHERN 31, Wofford 24
WESTERN CAROLINA 22, Samford 20
Southland Conference
CENTRAL ARKANSAS 33, Northwestern State 12
Sam Houston State 39, NICHOLLS STATE 27
Stephen F. Austin 39, MCNEESE STATE 25
Texas State 35, SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 26
Southwestern Athletic Conference
GRAMBLING 33, Alabama State 9
JACKSON STATE 19, Alabama A&M 16
SOUTHERN 35, Mississippi Valley State 12
Texas Southern 27, ALCORN STATE 21
FCS Non-Conference
Brown 24, HOLY CROSS 20
Cal Poly 27, OLD DOMINION 26
Colgate vs. PRINCETON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
COLUMBIA 27, Lafayette 16
FURMAN 41, Howard 9
GEORGIA STATE 34, Savannah State 16
Hampton 23, NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL 21
LEHIGH 30, Fordham 18
Missouri State 41, MURRAY STATE 19
Penn 39, BUCKNELL 0
Wagner vs. GEORGETOWN: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
DCI NHL
Phoenix 3, Boston 2
San Jose 3, Columbus 2
BUFFALO 3, N.Y. Rangers 2
Ottawa vs. TORONTO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Dallas vs. N.Y. ISLANDERS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Montreal vs. PITTSBURGH: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
WASHINGTON 3, New Jersey 2
Atlanta vs. TAMPA BAY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Philadelphia vs. ST. LOUIS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NASHVILLE 3, Anaheim 2
CHICAGO 4, Detroit 3
VANCOUVER 4, Los Angeles 3
Phoenix 3, Boston 2
San Jose 3, Columbus 2
BUFFALO 3, N.Y. Rangers 2
Ottawa vs. TORONTO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Dallas vs. N.Y. ISLANDERS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Montreal vs. PITTSBURGH: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
WASHINGTON 3, New Jersey 2
Atlanta vs. TAMPA BAY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Philadelphia vs. ST. LOUIS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NASHVILLE 3, Anaheim 2
CHICAGO 4, Detroit 3
VANCOUVER 4, Los Angeles 3
jeff benton saturday
1-0 yesterdy PLUS 30 dims PLUS $315..overall, 134-159-7 minus 500
SATURDAY'S ACTION
40 DIME college football selection on STANFORD minus the points at home against USC. The Cardinal are laying 9½ to 10 points depanding on where you shop, and obviously it goes without saying that there’s a big difference between those two numbers so do whatever it takes to lay the 9½.
10 DIME college football selection AUBURN minus the points on the road at Kentucky. The Tigers are laying 6½ points both here in Vegas and offshiore. If this number jumps up to 7, you MUST buy the half point and drive the number back down under a touchdown. It’s cheap insurance to pay to protect your inveltment and guarantee we get paid if this game lands on 7.
STANFORD
I’ve been waiting all season for USC to lose, because I knew once it happened, I would be coming with a big play AGAINST the Trojans the following week. That USC’s first loss came in excruciating fashion and that the next opponent happens to be a very talented and pissed-off Stanford squad is just icing on the cake!
So why am I so eager to fade USC? Because now that the Trojans’ perfect season has been shot, they no longer have anything to play for. Remember, because of NCAA sanctions, USC is not eligible for the Pac-10 championship and not eligible to play in a bowl game. So the only motiaation the Trojans had was to galvanize under the “us-against-the-world” mentality and try to win every game and show they’re among the best teams in the country, the NCAA be damned.
Well, Washington took care of any dreams of an undefeated season with last week’s last-second 32-31 win on USC’s field (the Huskies, who racked up a whopping 536 total yards, got a 32-yard field goal at the gun to win outright as a nine-point underdog). Needless to say, I don’t see the Trojans bouncing back from that loss, despite the fact this is a revenge game for them (more in that in a moment).
At the same time USC was falling to Washington, Stanford was up at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore., watching its national championship hopes go down the drain in a 52-31 loss to Oregon. The Cardinal jumped out to a 21-3 lead and had a 31-24 edge at halftime before getting outscored 28-0 in the second half. It was no doubt a bitter defeat for a team that had won its first four games by a combined score of 192-55. But unlike with the Trojans, Stanford still has plenty of motivation for the season. If Oregon slips up twice, Stanford can still win the Pac-10, and while that’s a long shot, the Cardinal can still qualify for a BCS bowl game (and short of that a New Year’s Day bowl).
Besides, I love Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh to get his troops up after such a devastating loss – a confidence I do NOT have in USC coach Lane Kiffin. And we know from what happened a year ago that Harbaugh has no qualms about pounding the crap out of the Trojans. Last year in Los Angeles, Harbaugh incensed then-USC coach Pete Carroll when he went for a 2-point conversion up 41-21 in the fourth quarter. Then Stanford tacked on two more touchdowns – including a 24-yard PASS with less than two minutes to play – to finish off a statement-making 55-21 rout as a 10-point road underdog.
You don’t think Harbaugh would love to stick it to the brash young Kiffin and his Trojans again? Especially with his team in need of a confidience boost after last week’s loss to Oregon? Of course he would love to. And he’ll have his chance because there is NO WAY this USC defense is going to stop Andrew Luck and the Cardinal offense.
Luck is completing 63 percent of his passes for 1,253 yards, 13 TDs and four INTs (all four picks in the last two weeks), and he’s also rushed for 202 yards (8 yards per carry) and two additional scores. He paces an offense that is putting up 44.6 points, 255.6 passing yards and 214 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, USC’s defense has been ripped apart by the only two solid offenses it has faced to this point. First in the season opener, Hawaii put up 36 points and 588 yards. Then Washington last week rolled up 32 points and 536 yards.
Stanford has cashed in 12 of its last 15 home games, it has gotten the money in each of the last three meetings with USC (two outright wins) and it is 7-2 ATS in its last nine when coming off a non-cover. Meanwhile, the Trojans are in ATS slumps of 5-12 overall, 3-9 on the highway, 3-11 in Pac-10 play, 5-16 in October and 1-8 on grass.
The bottom line here is this: The only way I see USC hanging in this game is if Kiffin concedes defeat from the get-go and runs the ball all day long to try and shorten the game (something he did last year at Tennessee when the Vols were competitive in a 23-13 loss to Florida as a 30-point underdog). Could Kiffin do the same thing again today? Sure. But all it would mean is his team will lose 27-10 instead of 42-24. Either way, Stanford is rolling and rolling BIG in this one as Harbaugh beheads the mighty Trojans for the second straight year and the third time in the last four.
AUBURN
How can you trust Kentucky’s defense right now? In their last two games – both SEC road losses to Florida and Ole Miss – the Wildcats surrendered 48 and 42 points and a combined 767 total yards, including 387 rushing yards. Now here comes Auburn and its explosive QB Cam Newtown, who is growing more comfortable by the week.
Newtown has accounted for more than 1,400 combined yards (928 passing, 474 rushing) and 17 TDs (12 passing, 5 rushing). He’s averaging an eye-popping 10.7 yards per pass attempt, and when he tucks it and runs he’s gaining 6.2 yards per carry. The Tigers have won six in a row dating to their 38-35 overtime New Year’s Day bowl win over Northwestern, and they’ve scored at least 27 points in five of those wins.
Lost in the gaudy offense stats has been the production of Auburn’s defense. The Tigers are yielding just 18.8 points and 334.6 yards per game. To fully grasp the scope of Auburn’s dominance on both sides of the ball, consider the following: The Tigers, who have outglined every single opponent this year (including four by more than 100 yards), are averaging 269 rushing ypg and 5.8 rushing yards per carry, while the defense is allowing just 92.8 rushing ypg and 2.6 yards per carry – a 3.2 difference in yards per rushing attempt is astounding. Compare that to Kentucky which is outrushing its opponents by just 23.7 yards per game.
Two final points to make: 1) Auburn has legit revenge here, having lost 21-14 at home to Kentucky last year as a 13½-point favorite after winning the previous six meetings (all by double digits); and 2) the Wildcats have been terrible against the number at home (6-13-1 ATS last 20 home games, including 2-5 ATS last seven as a home underdog), terrible recently as an underdog (0-4 ATS last four) and terrible in bounce-back situations (4-9-1 ATS last 14 following a SU loss).
I know Auburn has played four of its first five games at home and was shaky in the one road contest (17-14 win at Mississippi State). But the Tigers are gaining confidence by the week, while at the same time Kentucky has to still be reeling from the ugly results of its first two SEC games. Despite an admitted inflated line, I’m willing to lay it as I don’t see how Kentucky is going to stop Newtown and the Tigers’ explosive attack.
1-0 yesterdy PLUS 30 dims PLUS $315..overall, 134-159-7 minus 500
SATURDAY'S ACTION
40 DIME college football selection on STANFORD minus the points at home against USC. The Cardinal are laying 9½ to 10 points depanding on where you shop, and obviously it goes without saying that there’s a big difference between those two numbers so do whatever it takes to lay the 9½.
10 DIME college football selection AUBURN minus the points on the road at Kentucky. The Tigers are laying 6½ points both here in Vegas and offshiore. If this number jumps up to 7, you MUST buy the half point and drive the number back down under a touchdown. It’s cheap insurance to pay to protect your inveltment and guarantee we get paid if this game lands on 7.
STANFORD
I’ve been waiting all season for USC to lose, because I knew once it happened, I would be coming with a big play AGAINST the Trojans the following week. That USC’s first loss came in excruciating fashion and that the next opponent happens to be a very talented and pissed-off Stanford squad is just icing on the cake!
So why am I so eager to fade USC? Because now that the Trojans’ perfect season has been shot, they no longer have anything to play for. Remember, because of NCAA sanctions, USC is not eligible for the Pac-10 championship and not eligible to play in a bowl game. So the only motiaation the Trojans had was to galvanize under the “us-against-the-world” mentality and try to win every game and show they’re among the best teams in the country, the NCAA be damned.
Well, Washington took care of any dreams of an undefeated season with last week’s last-second 32-31 win on USC’s field (the Huskies, who racked up a whopping 536 total yards, got a 32-yard field goal at the gun to win outright as a nine-point underdog). Needless to say, I don’t see the Trojans bouncing back from that loss, despite the fact this is a revenge game for them (more in that in a moment).
At the same time USC was falling to Washington, Stanford was up at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore., watching its national championship hopes go down the drain in a 52-31 loss to Oregon. The Cardinal jumped out to a 21-3 lead and had a 31-24 edge at halftime before getting outscored 28-0 in the second half. It was no doubt a bitter defeat for a team that had won its first four games by a combined score of 192-55. But unlike with the Trojans, Stanford still has plenty of motivation for the season. If Oregon slips up twice, Stanford can still win the Pac-10, and while that’s a long shot, the Cardinal can still qualify for a BCS bowl game (and short of that a New Year’s Day bowl).
Besides, I love Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh to get his troops up after such a devastating loss – a confidence I do NOT have in USC coach Lane Kiffin. And we know from what happened a year ago that Harbaugh has no qualms about pounding the crap out of the Trojans. Last year in Los Angeles, Harbaugh incensed then-USC coach Pete Carroll when he went for a 2-point conversion up 41-21 in the fourth quarter. Then Stanford tacked on two more touchdowns – including a 24-yard PASS with less than two minutes to play – to finish off a statement-making 55-21 rout as a 10-point road underdog.
You don’t think Harbaugh would love to stick it to the brash young Kiffin and his Trojans again? Especially with his team in need of a confidience boost after last week’s loss to Oregon? Of course he would love to. And he’ll have his chance because there is NO WAY this USC defense is going to stop Andrew Luck and the Cardinal offense.
Luck is completing 63 percent of his passes for 1,253 yards, 13 TDs and four INTs (all four picks in the last two weeks), and he’s also rushed for 202 yards (8 yards per carry) and two additional scores. He paces an offense that is putting up 44.6 points, 255.6 passing yards and 214 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, USC’s defense has been ripped apart by the only two solid offenses it has faced to this point. First in the season opener, Hawaii put up 36 points and 588 yards. Then Washington last week rolled up 32 points and 536 yards.
Stanford has cashed in 12 of its last 15 home games, it has gotten the money in each of the last three meetings with USC (two outright wins) and it is 7-2 ATS in its last nine when coming off a non-cover. Meanwhile, the Trojans are in ATS slumps of 5-12 overall, 3-9 on the highway, 3-11 in Pac-10 play, 5-16 in October and 1-8 on grass.
The bottom line here is this: The only way I see USC hanging in this game is if Kiffin concedes defeat from the get-go and runs the ball all day long to try and shorten the game (something he did last year at Tennessee when the Vols were competitive in a 23-13 loss to Florida as a 30-point underdog). Could Kiffin do the same thing again today? Sure. But all it would mean is his team will lose 27-10 instead of 42-24. Either way, Stanford is rolling and rolling BIG in this one as Harbaugh beheads the mighty Trojans for the second straight year and the third time in the last four.
AUBURN
How can you trust Kentucky’s defense right now? In their last two games – both SEC road losses to Florida and Ole Miss – the Wildcats surrendered 48 and 42 points and a combined 767 total yards, including 387 rushing yards. Now here comes Auburn and its explosive QB Cam Newtown, who is growing more comfortable by the week.
Newtown has accounted for more than 1,400 combined yards (928 passing, 474 rushing) and 17 TDs (12 passing, 5 rushing). He’s averaging an eye-popping 10.7 yards per pass attempt, and when he tucks it and runs he’s gaining 6.2 yards per carry. The Tigers have won six in a row dating to their 38-35 overtime New Year’s Day bowl win over Northwestern, and they’ve scored at least 27 points in five of those wins.
Lost in the gaudy offense stats has been the production of Auburn’s defense. The Tigers are yielding just 18.8 points and 334.6 yards per game. To fully grasp the scope of Auburn’s dominance on both sides of the ball, consider the following: The Tigers, who have outglined every single opponent this year (including four by more than 100 yards), are averaging 269 rushing ypg and 5.8 rushing yards per carry, while the defense is allowing just 92.8 rushing ypg and 2.6 yards per carry – a 3.2 difference in yards per rushing attempt is astounding. Compare that to Kentucky which is outrushing its opponents by just 23.7 yards per game.
Two final points to make: 1) Auburn has legit revenge here, having lost 21-14 at home to Kentucky last year as a 13½-point favorite after winning the previous six meetings (all by double digits); and 2) the Wildcats have been terrible against the number at home (6-13-1 ATS last 20 home games, including 2-5 ATS last seven as a home underdog), terrible recently as an underdog (0-4 ATS last four) and terrible in bounce-back situations (4-9-1 ATS last 14 following a SU loss).
I know Auburn has played four of its first five games at home and was shaky in the one road contest (17-14 win at Mississippi State). But the Tigers are gaining confidence by the week, while at the same time Kentucky has to still be reeling from the ugly results of its first two SEC games. Despite an admitted inflated line, I’m willing to lay it as I don’t see how Kentucky is going to stop Newtown and the Tigers’ explosive attack.
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