Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Report- Saturday
3:30 PM EDT
4 STAR SELECTION (Rated 1-6 Units)
Kentucky +15½ over ALABAMA
Two undefeated SEC teams take the field Saturday afternoon as the second-ranked Crimson Tide host the WildCats. Among the teams still unbeaten on the season, nobody is talking about Kentucky; however, they are certainly no pushover, as they have won all four of their games thus far and have surrendered three or fewer points in three of those outings.
Alabama improved to 5-0 overall with an impressive 41-30 victory over then third-ranked Georgia in Athens last Saturday. The Tide jumped out to a 31-0 lead and held off a furious Georgia rally.
The biggest question for Kentucky coming into this season surrounded the quarterback position. Mike Hartline was forced into the starting role because of the departure of projected starter Curtis Pulley. Hartline has responded by completing 59% of his passes for with three touchdowns and just one interception. While those numbers aren't overly impressive, coach Rich Brooks is proud of the steady play of his signal caller, who has helped the Kentucky rack up more than 31 ppg on the season.
On defense, Kentucky is holding foes to just 5.5 ppg and 227 total ypg. Only two touchdowns have been yielded to opposing offenses, neither of which came on the ground. With nine sacks and nine takeaways, big plays have certainly contributed to the team's overall success.
There’s no argument that the Crimson Tide are having a sensational season. QB John Parker Wilson has been in complete command of the offense, completing 63% of his throws this season with six touchdowns and only one interception. The ground attack has also been outstanding. The defense has been fierce for Alabama, as they are yielding fewer than 10 yards per pass completion and have 10 takeaways on the season.
One of our handicapping strategies is to play ON an underdog that is allowing less than 3 yards per rush on the season from October on. Such is the case for the WildCats, who continue to fly under the radar. A mountain of numbers show that Kentucky is in a great spot here, as they are 5-0 ATS (+17.9 ppg) when not favored by 18+ points and facing an opponent off a road underdog SU win since 2000. Alabama is 0-7-1 ATS (-10.5 ppg) with less than 12 days off a road underdog SU win vs. an opponent not off a SU loss of 24+ points, and 0-7-1 ATS (-8.4 ppg) as a favorite with less than 12 days rest off any underdog SU win.
The ‘Cats are also 4-0 ATS (+12 ppg) as an unbeaten underdog with 5+ days rest since 1998 and 4-0 ATS (+13.4 ppg) on the road with 5+ days rest off 2 SU wins, while the Tide is 0-3 ATS (-12.5 ppg) since 2002 as a home favorite vs. an opponent off 2 home SU wins.
Kentucky also qualifies for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours that reveals how undefeated road underdogs have been greatly under-valued by the wagering public when facing a team off a road dog victory. Specifically, From Game 5 on, play ON an undefeated road underdog not off a spread loss of 12+ points vs. an opponent off a road underdog SU win. Since at least 1980, these teams are 11-0 ATS, beating the spread by nearly a dozen points per game on average. In fact these road dogs have been so strong that only 1 of the 11 qualifying teams lost the game outright.
Alabama is 0-4 ATS as an undefeated conference home favorite of more than 3 points since 2002, and are due to come back to earth this week. This is a classic example of how we look to: Play AGAINST a Top 10 team off a win over another Top 10 opponent. The winning team likely expended more energy and effort to pull of the victory in a big game. They will have little left in their emotional or physical tanks. Meanwhile, their opponent will be fired up knowing they are facing one of the top teams in the country.
Teams returning to their own backyard after beating Georgia away from home have been flat under the parameters outlined by another NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
From Game 4 on, play AGAINST a home team off a road/neutral site SU win of 2+ points against Georgia (not an ATS loss of 5+ points).
Since 1995, these teams are 0-13 ATS, failing to cover the spread by nearly 11 ppg on average.
Finally, unbeaten favorites of 1-3 TDs have run into trouble against revenge-minded foes off a victory in the second half of the season. This is proven by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that says:
From Game 6 on, play AGAINST an undefeated favorite of 6½-20½ points vs. an opponent off a SU win and seeking revenge for a SU loss.
Since 2005, these teams are 0-14 ATS, including South Florida’s loss to Pittsburgh on Thursday night. An outright loss by the Tide wouldn’t surprise us here as well, as we fully expect the WildCats to keep this within a TD for an easy spread cover.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: ALABAMA 28 KENTUCKY 21
9:00 PM EDT
4 STAR SELECTION (Rated 1-6 Units)
NEBRASKA +10½ over Missouri
Following a bye, the #4 Tigers kick off their Big 12 schedule, as they travel to Lincoln for a showdown with the Cornhuskers. Missouri has not only conference crown goals in mind, but are national title contender as well, with four lopsided victories to start the year, including a 42-21 win over Buffalo last time out.
This is homecoming week for Bo Pelini's Nebraska team that is coming off its first loss of a season, a 35-30 setback to nationally ranked Virginia Tech. The ‘Huskers have absolutely dominated the series at home, as they 15-0 SU when hosting the Tigers since 1978.
The Tigers do boast one of the most potent offenses in college football, coming into this game ranked second in the nation in scoring, passing and total offense. The team has also been able to move the football on the ground. It certainly doesn't hurt to have the front-runner for the Heisman Trophy running the show in senior QB Chase Daniel. The veteran gunslinger ranks fourth nationally in passing efficiency, completing 75.9 percent of his passes, for 1,412 yards and 12 TDs.
The Tigers have not had to rely on their defense thus far, thanks to the prolific offense, and they could be in trouble if they do. Missouri is allowing 21 ppg. While the team is yielding 99 ypg on the ground, they are giving up 280 yards passing per game.
With a balanced offensive attack of their own that is netting just over 420 yards per game, there won't be a lot of sustained losing streaks for the Cornhuskers. The team has the ability to move the chains via the run or the pass. Quarterback Joe Ganz has played well under center this year, completing 64% of his tosses with seven TDs. Tailback Marlon Lucky is instrumental to this offense as well, but has just 42 carries in the first four games, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Lucky will probably be used a bit more this week in trying to keep the high-octane Tiger offense off the field.
The 2008 Cornhusker defense has been vulnerable at times, including allowing Virginia Tech to rumble for 206 yards on the ground last week. The numbers on the year aren't bad, with Nebraska giving up less than 20 ppg on 355 yards of total offense per outing, better numbers than those of the Tigers.
The betting public loves high-scoring offenses which accounts for this high number and that more than 75% of wagers placed on this game at several sportsbooks are on the Tigers. The betting public also loves to wager on TV games, as this is, so with such a high number of wagers cast, we know which way the public is going, and heavily so.
We are “contrarians” as we look to play AGAINST a team that is a public consensus play, especially in TV games. These teams backed by 70%+ of the betting masses at contest sites and sportsbooks are fool's gold. When 7 out of 10 bettors think they know more than the oddsmakers, it's time to get out of the way and allow the sportsbooks to show why once again how they stay in business.
Some may point to Missouri’s time off as a big advantage, but we note that the Tigers are 0-5 SU (-16.4 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-10.6 ppg) on the road with 13+ days rest and not an underdog of 32+ points.
Meanwhile, Nebraska is 5-0 ATS (+11.9 ppg) as a conference home underdog of 3+ points since at least 1980, while Mizzou is 0-4 ATS as a road favorite of 8½-19½ points. The Cornhuskers are also 8-0 ATS (+7.8 ppg) in conference home games vs. undefeated opponents, while the Tigers are 0-2 SU (-13.5 ppg) & 0-2 ATS (-19.2 ppg) as an undefeated conference road favorite since at least 1980.
Nebraska is also a powerful 14-0 SU (+25 ppg) & 14-0 ATS (+11.5 ppg) off its first SU loss of the season in which they lost by less than 18 points and now are not favored by 32+ points.
In addition to the fact that ‘Huskers are 15-0 SU at home vs. Missouri since 1998, the home team is 6-0 SU (+19.2 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+17.7 ppg)in the last half-dozen meetings in this series. Of course, that also means that Nebraska has a bit of revenge on their minds here, and revenge-minded home underdogs have given it their best shot against an undefeated conference foe according to an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
From Game 4 on, play ON a conference home underdog off an ATS loss of 2+ points (not a SU loss of 39+ points) seeking revenge for a road underdog SU loss vs. an undefeated opponent with 12+ days rest.
These home dogs have gone 16-0 ATS since at least 1980, crushing the spread by nearly 16 ppg on average.
The Huskers are the PLAY ON team for that situation, while the Tigers are active for another NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
In Games 5-8, play AGAINST an undefeated conference road favorite of more than 7 points off an ATS loss of more than 7 points.
Under those basic conditions, the unbeaten teams have been bloodied, going 0-21 ATS since 1997, failing to cover the number by 10 ppg on average.
This figures to be a terrific game with a slightly over-rated Tigers team getting all they can handle from a disrespected home team. The Cornhuskers should easily cover this number and have a great chance of scoring enough points to put an end to the visitors’ perfect season.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MISSOURI 31 NEBRASKA 30
3:30 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION (Rated 1-6 Units)
Florida State +2 over MIAMI, FL
The Hurricanes are back home to take on their state and ACC rival Seminoles on Saturday. Florida State comes in winners of three of their first four games, including a convincing, 39-21 victory over Colorado this past weekend. Miami is coming off a heartbreaking, 28-24 loss at home to North Carolina this past weekend, which was the fifth consecutive conference loss for the ‘Canes.
After scoring just three points in the loss to Wake Forest, the Seminoles regained their swagger with the victory over the Buffs last Saturday. Florida State racked up 378 total yards in the win, relying mostly on the ground attack, which churned out a generous 259 yards on 5.6 ypc. For most of the season the offense has dominated the opposition with its rushing game, averaging an outstanding 212 ypg. QB Christian Ponder is trying to do his part as well, but has some work to do, having completed half of his passes with 6 TDs, but also has four interceptions.
While the offense has done a solid job this season, the Seminoles' defensive play has simply been suffocating. Florida State is currently limiting the opposition to just 224 total ypg, and a mere 10 ppg. The defense has done a tremendous job against the run, holding teams to just 67.2 ypg on 1.9 ypc.
The Hurricanes have not steam-rolled any opponent, averaging a mediocre 316 total ypg, but they have produced an impressive 30 ppg. Miami has used a strong rushing attack that is churning our 144 ypg; however, that will literally run into the strength of the FSU defense. Redshirt freshman Robert Marve has struggled behind center, throwing for just 416 yards on the season with five scores and three interceptions.
The Miami defense is limiting the opposition to just 283 total ypg and 21 ppg – good numbers, but not nearly as strong as the Seminoles. The Hurricanes continued to play well against the run game this past weekend against the Tarheels; however, they still found a way to surrender 28 points in the contest, mainly because they allowed North Carolina to convert on 6-of-13 third down attempts and all three red zone chances.
One big help for the Seminoles last week was the return of several starters that had been missing due to suspension. Now, they also get defensive lineman Paul Griffin back. He was forced to miss the first month of the season as penalty for the academic fraud scandal. The same is true for FB Marcus Sims. They are the last two players in the fallout from the fraud scandal to regain eligibility, so now Florida State will be at full strength for the first time on the season, which doesn’t bode well for the Hurricanes.
We are happy to take the points here and go with the team that has the superior defense. We especially like to play ON an underdog that is allowing less than 3 yards per rush on the season from October on, as well as play ON an underdog or single-digit favorite that has a net 2+ offensive/defensive YPR.
A college football team that can successfully run the ball and defend the run should enjoy success. A strong running game can overcome turnovers and spotty QB play. College games have more plays than the NFL contests, allowing a team with a stronger running game more opportunities to exert their physical dominance, especially as their opponent wears down and gets tired.
Additionally, this is just not a good spot for Miami, as they are a dreadful 0-14 ATS (-18 ppg) as a favorite of less than 33 with less than 13 days rest off a SU loss and 0-11 SU (-12.9 ppg) & 0-11 ATS (-15.1 ppg) since 1996 in home games with a line between -9 and +6.
It may not be pretty, but the full-strength Seminoles should play their best game of the season with a solid victory over the ‘Canes.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: FLORIDA STATE 26 MIAMI, FL 17
6:00 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION (Rated 1-6 Units)
TCU -24½ over San Diego State
The Horned Frogs will look to get back in the good graces of the pollsters as they host the Aztecs on Saturday. TCU was ranked and unbeaten before getting bloodied at #1 Oklahoma last weekend.
San Diego’s schedule has gone the opposite of that of the Horned Frogs in the early going. The Aztecs were beaten by 1-AA Cal Poly in the season opener, then fell at Notre Dame and San Jose State before finally collecting win #1 with a 45-17 home victory against lowly Idaho.
Aztecs quarterback Ryan Lindley dismantled the Vandals defense last week. Lindley, a mere freshman, completed 24-of-38 passes for 433 yards and four touchdowns in the lopsided decision, but it’s going to be a whole different story on the road against a nasty Horned Frogs “D”.
Idaho managed to put up some decent offensive numbers with 351 yards, but what it really came down to for the visitors was four turnovers that kept the Vandals on the outside looking in. The Aztecs have had serious issues stopping the run and now it has compounded to the point where it has the unit ranked 107th in the country with 211 ypg allowed. This does note bode well against a TCU team that will look to pound the visitors into submission.
The Horned Frogs average 219 ypg on the ground behind a stable of runners. They are content to hit a big play occasionally when the opposing defense gets too intent on shutting down run. As for TCU’s defense, it’s been rock solid and even holding the Sooners to 35 points is an accomplishment considering what they have done in their other contests.
After the big win against Idaho last week the Aztecs are due for a letdown. In fact, San Diego State is a pathetic 0-17 SU (-22.2 ppg) & 0-16-1 ATS (-10.8 ppg) as an underdog of 4-29 points with less than 8 days rest off a SU win.
By the same token, the Horned Frogs figure to bounce back fast, especially against a conference foe. TCU is 9-0 SU (+32.1 ppg) & 9-0 ATS (+14.2 ppg) as a favorite of more than 8 points vs. an opponent not off a road SU loss of 14+ points & ATS loss.
Huge favorites at home from their 5th game on, have blasted conference opponents after getting blown out themselves. We have documented this with an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
From Game 5 on, play ON a conference home favorite of 24+ points off a SU loss of 22+ points.
Since 1993, these teams are 16-0 SU (+41.6 ppg) & 15-0-1 ATS (+13.1 ppg). We look for that trend to continue as the Horned Frogs should jump all over an Aztecs team that is likely to pack it in after getting down.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TCU 37 SAN DIEGO STATE 3
12:00 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION (Rated 1-6 Units)
Duke +13½ over GEORGIA TECH
The Blue Devils hit the road for the first time this season, as they invade Atlanta to do battle with the Yellow Jackets. Duke kicked off their ACC schedule in convincing fashion last weekend, as they defeated Virginia by a 31-3 score. With the outcome, Duke put an end to a 25-game ACC-losing streak, while also posting its largest margin of victory in 10 years. As for Georgia Tech, it had the week off to prepare for this game and the team also sits at 3-1 overall. The Jackets are off a blowout win over Mississippi State. The squad has split a pair of ACC bouts already, defeating Boston College and losing out to Virginia Tech.
The Blue Devils have been productive on the offensive side of the ball this season. The hire of David Cutliffe has made a HUGE difference with this team, as they are currently averaging a solid 31 ppg behind 373 total ypg. Last week, QB Thaddeus Lewis put together a solid outing, throwing for 160 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 18-of-32 pass attempts. He has completed over 61% of his tosses on the season and thrown for seven TDs.
On the defensive side of the things, Duke has been very sound as well this season, limiting opposing clubs to 16 ppg and 307 total ypg. The “D” is coming off its finest performance of the season, holding Virginia to only a FG.
With new head coach Paul Johnson at the helm, Georgia Tech has simply run all over their opponents this season, using their 306 ypg on the ground to average 29 ppg. In its most recent outing, GT amassed 500 total yards, with 438 of those yards coming on the ground, in the 38-7 win over Mississippi State. Starting QB Josh Nesbitt missed most of the game with a hamstring injury and is questionable for this weekend.
The Yellow Jackets have also been stout on defense early on, holding opponents to just 14 ppg and only 294 total ypg. In the squad's last game, the Jackets did surrender 407 total yards to Miss State, a very bad offensive team, but made up for it by creating four turnovers and notching three sacks.
Georgia Tech will challenge the Duke run defense for sure, but that doesn't figure to be anything new. The Devils already have taken on Johnson's previous team and held the Midshipmen to 206 yards on the ground, nearly 130 yards under their season average. With Nesbitt nursing the hamstring injury, Duke should be able to keep the Jackets from running wild.
We do like to play ON a team that recently did well against a certain type of offense and is facing the same type of attack again. The team will be in tune with how to slow down such an opponent and have the confidence to execute the gameplan, so the edge here clearly goes to Duke.
The Blue Devils continue to surprise the oddsmakers, as they are 3-0 ATS this season, and now they qualify for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which shows that road underdogs off a win that came with rest have fared very well against foes with rest off a win under the conditions outline. Specifically, it states:
Play ON a Saturday road underdog off a favorite SU win with 7+ days rest and not seeking revenge for a conference home SU loss & ATS loss of more than 18 points in the previous matchup last season vs. an opponent with 7+ days rest off a SU win and & ATS win of less than 34 points.
Since 1986, these teams are a super 17-0 ATS while beating the spread by more than 11 ppg on average. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech does not have a history of doing well off a bye, as they are 1-6 SU (-16 ppg) & 0-7 ATS (-15.1 ppg) with 9+ days rest.
Look for the Jackets to be a bit out of sync with the extra time off and with a hobbled quarterback, while a Blue Devils team brimming with confidence should take this game down to the wire for at least a comfortable spread win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: GEORGIA TECH 20 DUKE 17
2:00 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION (Rated 1-6 Units)
South Carolina +2½ over MISSISSIPPI
Fresh off a shocking victory at Florida Gators, the Rebels return home to host the Gamecocks. South Carolina is 3-2 on the season, but at 0-2 in conference play, very hungry for an SEC victory. Since those two setbacks to Vanderbilt and Georgia, the Gamecocks have managed two straight wins
As for Mississippi, it is coming off its first victory over a Top 5 foe in over 30 years, as it stunned the Gators, 31-30, last week. The Rebels are 1-1 in the SEC, as it also lost to Vanderbilt two weeks ago.
South Carolina coach Steven Spurrier has little patience when it comes to inconsistent or poor play at the quarterback position. Therefore, we expect to see Stephen Garcia get his first start here. Garcia is just a freshman, but he was the best QB on the field last week when he got in the game against UAB and connected on 13-of-20 passes for 131 yards with one touchdown with one interception. He also ran for an additional 86 yards and a TD. Top option at wideout, Kenny McKinley, was kept out of last week’s game due to injury but it looks like he is a go as well, which will certainly be a big boost to the Gamecocks offense.
It shouldn’t take a whole lot from the offense to keep South Carolina in the game, as they have a stellar defense. They didn’t allow a TD last week until a mere 24 seconds remained in the game, and yielded a mere 207 total yards, including 67 rushing yards. The club is yielding less than 13 ppg and permitting opponents to generate only 221 total ypg.
Ole Miss starting quarterback Jevan Snead connected on only 9-of-20 passes against Florida for 185 yards, but the Rebels achieved solid balance and were able to limit the amount of time that Heisman-winning quarterback Tim Tebow and his Gator offense had the ball. Ole Miss is racking up 30 ppg this season behind the offensive balance. Snead has thrown eight interceptions and completed just 52.5 percent of his tosses, so there is room for improvement.
The Ole Miss defense is the weak spot of the team, as they did surrender 443 total yards to Florida last weekend. Opponents are generating 23 ppg and 329 total ypg against Ole Miss, which should allow the Gamecocks to do some damage here.
Under Spurrier, South Carolina is 6-0 ATS off a spread loss of 7+ points, scoring 7+ points, and they are 2-0 ATS at Mississippi since at least 1980.
In what are expected to be close games, we generally like to play on the team with the superior defense. The Gamecocks should be able to neutralize Ole Miss’s offensive strength and force them to go with plays they are not well suited for.
We also like to play AGAINST a off its peak performance of the season. Whether a blowout win, upset, revenge victory, played the “spoiler”, or any win in which a team feels like they “just won the Super Bowl”, they will be hard-pressed to match that emotion, effort, and intensity next time out and will be due for a fall. Such is the case for the Rebels after their win at “The Swamp”.
An NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours confirms that very small home favorites have been dismal after a win as a big road underdog. It states:
Play AGAINST a Saturday home favorite of 3 points or less with less than 13 days rest off a road SU win as an underdog of more than 7 points vs. an opponent with less than 11 days rest not off a conference home favorite loss.
Since 1993, these teams are 0-14-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 2 TDs per game on average.
After a big upset win on the road against a conference rival, teams have let down with a bye coming up. This is documented by another POWER SYSTEM of ours which states:
In Games 2-10, play AGAINST a favorite of less than 28 points/pick ‘em with less than 10 days rest off a conference road SU win as an underdog of more than 4 points and before 7+ days rest.
Going back to 1997, these teams are an awful 0-18-1 ATS, failing to cover the number by nearly 11 ppg on average.
The Rebels qualify as a PLAY AGAINST team for both situations, which is precisely what we’ll do here, looking for the Gamecocks to take advantage of an unfocused foe.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: SOUTH CAROLINA 21 MISSISSIPPI 14
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3:30 PM EDT
4 STAR SELECTION (Rated 1-6 Units)
Kentucky +15½ over ALABAMA
Two undefeated SEC teams take the field Saturday afternoon as the second-ranked Crimson Tide host the WildCats. Among the teams still unbeaten on the season, nobody is talking about Kentucky; however, they are certainly no pushover, as they have won all four of their games thus far and have surrendered three or fewer points in three of those outings.
Alabama improved to 5-0 overall with an impressive 41-30 victory over then third-ranked Georgia in Athens last Saturday. The Tide jumped out to a 31-0 lead and held off a furious Georgia rally.
The biggest question for Kentucky coming into this season surrounded the quarterback position. Mike Hartline was forced into the starting role because of the departure of projected starter Curtis Pulley. Hartline has responded by completing 59% of his passes for with three touchdowns and just one interception. While those numbers aren't overly impressive, coach Rich Brooks is proud of the steady play of his signal caller, who has helped the Kentucky rack up more than 31 ppg on the season.
On defense, Kentucky is holding foes to just 5.5 ppg and 227 total ypg. Only two touchdowns have been yielded to opposing offenses, neither of which came on the ground. With nine sacks and nine takeaways, big plays have certainly contributed to the team's overall success.
There’s no argument that the Crimson Tide are having a sensational season. QB John Parker Wilson has been in complete command of the offense, completing 63% of his throws this season with six touchdowns and only one interception. The ground attack has also been outstanding. The defense has been fierce for Alabama, as they are yielding fewer than 10 yards per pass completion and have 10 takeaways on the season.
One of our handicapping strategies is to play ON an underdog that is allowing less than 3 yards per rush on the season from October on. Such is the case for the WildCats, who continue to fly under the radar. A mountain of numbers show that Kentucky is in a great spot here, as they are 5-0 ATS (+17.9 ppg) when not favored by 18+ points and facing an opponent off a road underdog SU win since 2000. Alabama is 0-7-1 ATS (-10.5 ppg) with less than 12 days off a road underdog SU win vs. an opponent not off a SU loss of 24+ points, and 0-7-1 ATS (-8.4 ppg) as a favorite with less than 12 days rest off any underdog SU win.
The ‘Cats are also 4-0 ATS (+12 ppg) as an unbeaten underdog with 5+ days rest since 1998 and 4-0 ATS (+13.4 ppg) on the road with 5+ days rest off 2 SU wins, while the Tide is 0-3 ATS (-12.5 ppg) since 2002 as a home favorite vs. an opponent off 2 home SU wins.
Kentucky also qualifies for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours that reveals how undefeated road underdogs have been greatly under-valued by the wagering public when facing a team off a road dog victory. Specifically, From Game 5 on, play ON an undefeated road underdog not off a spread loss of 12+ points vs. an opponent off a road underdog SU win. Since at least 1980, these teams are 11-0 ATS, beating the spread by nearly a dozen points per game on average. In fact these road dogs have been so strong that only 1 of the 11 qualifying teams lost the game outright.
Alabama is 0-4 ATS as an undefeated conference home favorite of more than 3 points since 2002, and are due to come back to earth this week. This is a classic example of how we look to: Play AGAINST a Top 10 team off a win over another Top 10 opponent. The winning team likely expended more energy and effort to pull of the victory in a big game. They will have little left in their emotional or physical tanks. Meanwhile, their opponent will be fired up knowing they are facing one of the top teams in the country.
Teams returning to their own backyard after beating Georgia away from home have been flat under the parameters outlined by another NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
From Game 4 on, play AGAINST a home team off a road/neutral site SU win of 2+ points against Georgia (not an ATS loss of 5+ points).
Since 1995, these teams are 0-13 ATS, failing to cover the spread by nearly 11 ppg on average.
Finally, unbeaten favorites of 1-3 TDs have run into trouble against revenge-minded foes off a victory in the second half of the season. This is proven by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that says:
From Game 6 on, play AGAINST an undefeated favorite of 6½-20½ points vs. an opponent off a SU win and seeking revenge for a SU loss.
Since 2005, these teams are 0-14 ATS, including South Florida’s loss to Pittsburgh on Thursday night. An outright loss by the Tide wouldn’t surprise us here as well, as we fully expect the WildCats to keep this within a TD for an easy spread cover.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: ALABAMA 28 KENTUCKY 21
9:00 PM EDT
4 STAR SELECTION (Rated 1-6 Units)
NEBRASKA +10½ over Missouri
Following a bye, the #4 Tigers kick off their Big 12 schedule, as they travel to Lincoln for a showdown with the Cornhuskers. Missouri has not only conference crown goals in mind, but are national title contender as well, with four lopsided victories to start the year, including a 42-21 win over Buffalo last time out.
This is homecoming week for Bo Pelini's Nebraska team that is coming off its first loss of a season, a 35-30 setback to nationally ranked Virginia Tech. The ‘Huskers have absolutely dominated the series at home, as they 15-0 SU when hosting the Tigers since 1978.
The Tigers do boast one of the most potent offenses in college football, coming into this game ranked second in the nation in scoring, passing and total offense. The team has also been able to move the football on the ground. It certainly doesn't hurt to have the front-runner for the Heisman Trophy running the show in senior QB Chase Daniel. The veteran gunslinger ranks fourth nationally in passing efficiency, completing 75.9 percent of his passes, for 1,412 yards and 12 TDs.
The Tigers have not had to rely on their defense thus far, thanks to the prolific offense, and they could be in trouble if they do. Missouri is allowing 21 ppg. While the team is yielding 99 ypg on the ground, they are giving up 280 yards passing per game.
With a balanced offensive attack of their own that is netting just over 420 yards per game, there won't be a lot of sustained losing streaks for the Cornhuskers. The team has the ability to move the chains via the run or the pass. Quarterback Joe Ganz has played well under center this year, completing 64% of his tosses with seven TDs. Tailback Marlon Lucky is instrumental to this offense as well, but has just 42 carries in the first four games, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Lucky will probably be used a bit more this week in trying to keep the high-octane Tiger offense off the field.
The 2008 Cornhusker defense has been vulnerable at times, including allowing Virginia Tech to rumble for 206 yards on the ground last week. The numbers on the year aren't bad, with Nebraska giving up less than 20 ppg on 355 yards of total offense per outing, better numbers than those of the Tigers.
The betting public loves high-scoring offenses which accounts for this high number and that more than 75% of wagers placed on this game at several sportsbooks are on the Tigers. The betting public also loves to wager on TV games, as this is, so with such a high number of wagers cast, we know which way the public is going, and heavily so.
We are “contrarians” as we look to play AGAINST a team that is a public consensus play, especially in TV games. These teams backed by 70%+ of the betting masses at contest sites and sportsbooks are fool's gold. When 7 out of 10 bettors think they know more than the oddsmakers, it's time to get out of the way and allow the sportsbooks to show why once again how they stay in business.
Some may point to Missouri’s time off as a big advantage, but we note that the Tigers are 0-5 SU (-16.4 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-10.6 ppg) on the road with 13+ days rest and not an underdog of 32+ points.
Meanwhile, Nebraska is 5-0 ATS (+11.9 ppg) as a conference home underdog of 3+ points since at least 1980, while Mizzou is 0-4 ATS as a road favorite of 8½-19½ points. The Cornhuskers are also 8-0 ATS (+7.8 ppg) in conference home games vs. undefeated opponents, while the Tigers are 0-2 SU (-13.5 ppg) & 0-2 ATS (-19.2 ppg) as an undefeated conference road favorite since at least 1980.
Nebraska is also a powerful 14-0 SU (+25 ppg) & 14-0 ATS (+11.5 ppg) off its first SU loss of the season in which they lost by less than 18 points and now are not favored by 32+ points.
In addition to the fact that ‘Huskers are 15-0 SU at home vs. Missouri since 1998, the home team is 6-0 SU (+19.2 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+17.7 ppg)in the last half-dozen meetings in this series. Of course, that also means that Nebraska has a bit of revenge on their minds here, and revenge-minded home underdogs have given it their best shot against an undefeated conference foe according to an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
From Game 4 on, play ON a conference home underdog off an ATS loss of 2+ points (not a SU loss of 39+ points) seeking revenge for a road underdog SU loss vs. an undefeated opponent with 12+ days rest.
These home dogs have gone 16-0 ATS since at least 1980, crushing the spread by nearly 16 ppg on average.
The Huskers are the PLAY ON team for that situation, while the Tigers are active for another NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
In Games 5-8, play AGAINST an undefeated conference road favorite of more than 7 points off an ATS loss of more than 7 points.
Under those basic conditions, the unbeaten teams have been bloodied, going 0-21 ATS since 1997, failing to cover the number by 10 ppg on average.
This figures to be a terrific game with a slightly over-rated Tigers team getting all they can handle from a disrespected home team. The Cornhuskers should easily cover this number and have a great chance of scoring enough points to put an end to the visitors’ perfect season.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MISSOURI 31 NEBRASKA 30
3:30 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION (Rated 1-6 Units)
Florida State +2 over MIAMI, FL
The Hurricanes are back home to take on their state and ACC rival Seminoles on Saturday. Florida State comes in winners of three of their first four games, including a convincing, 39-21 victory over Colorado this past weekend. Miami is coming off a heartbreaking, 28-24 loss at home to North Carolina this past weekend, which was the fifth consecutive conference loss for the ‘Canes.
After scoring just three points in the loss to Wake Forest, the Seminoles regained their swagger with the victory over the Buffs last Saturday. Florida State racked up 378 total yards in the win, relying mostly on the ground attack, which churned out a generous 259 yards on 5.6 ypc. For most of the season the offense has dominated the opposition with its rushing game, averaging an outstanding 212 ypg. QB Christian Ponder is trying to do his part as well, but has some work to do, having completed half of his passes with 6 TDs, but also has four interceptions.
While the offense has done a solid job this season, the Seminoles' defensive play has simply been suffocating. Florida State is currently limiting the opposition to just 224 total ypg, and a mere 10 ppg. The defense has done a tremendous job against the run, holding teams to just 67.2 ypg on 1.9 ypc.
The Hurricanes have not steam-rolled any opponent, averaging a mediocre 316 total ypg, but they have produced an impressive 30 ppg. Miami has used a strong rushing attack that is churning our 144 ypg; however, that will literally run into the strength of the FSU defense. Redshirt freshman Robert Marve has struggled behind center, throwing for just 416 yards on the season with five scores and three interceptions.
The Miami defense is limiting the opposition to just 283 total ypg and 21 ppg – good numbers, but not nearly as strong as the Seminoles. The Hurricanes continued to play well against the run game this past weekend against the Tarheels; however, they still found a way to surrender 28 points in the contest, mainly because they allowed North Carolina to convert on 6-of-13 third down attempts and all three red zone chances.
One big help for the Seminoles last week was the return of several starters that had been missing due to suspension. Now, they also get defensive lineman Paul Griffin back. He was forced to miss the first month of the season as penalty for the academic fraud scandal. The same is true for FB Marcus Sims. They are the last two players in the fallout from the fraud scandal to regain eligibility, so now Florida State will be at full strength for the first time on the season, which doesn’t bode well for the Hurricanes.
We are happy to take the points here and go with the team that has the superior defense. We especially like to play ON an underdog that is allowing less than 3 yards per rush on the season from October on, as well as play ON an underdog or single-digit favorite that has a net 2+ offensive/defensive YPR.
A college football team that can successfully run the ball and defend the run should enjoy success. A strong running game can overcome turnovers and spotty QB play. College games have more plays than the NFL contests, allowing a team with a stronger running game more opportunities to exert their physical dominance, especially as their opponent wears down and gets tired.
Additionally, this is just not a good spot for Miami, as they are a dreadful 0-14 ATS (-18 ppg) as a favorite of less than 33 with less than 13 days rest off a SU loss and 0-11 SU (-12.9 ppg) & 0-11 ATS (-15.1 ppg) since 1996 in home games with a line between -9 and +6.
It may not be pretty, but the full-strength Seminoles should play their best game of the season with a solid victory over the ‘Canes.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: FLORIDA STATE 26 MIAMI, FL 17
6:00 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION (Rated 1-6 Units)
TCU -24½ over San Diego State
The Horned Frogs will look to get back in the good graces of the pollsters as they host the Aztecs on Saturday. TCU was ranked and unbeaten before getting bloodied at #1 Oklahoma last weekend.
San Diego’s schedule has gone the opposite of that of the Horned Frogs in the early going. The Aztecs were beaten by 1-AA Cal Poly in the season opener, then fell at Notre Dame and San Jose State before finally collecting win #1 with a 45-17 home victory against lowly Idaho.
Aztecs quarterback Ryan Lindley dismantled the Vandals defense last week. Lindley, a mere freshman, completed 24-of-38 passes for 433 yards and four touchdowns in the lopsided decision, but it’s going to be a whole different story on the road against a nasty Horned Frogs “D”.
Idaho managed to put up some decent offensive numbers with 351 yards, but what it really came down to for the visitors was four turnovers that kept the Vandals on the outside looking in. The Aztecs have had serious issues stopping the run and now it has compounded to the point where it has the unit ranked 107th in the country with 211 ypg allowed. This does note bode well against a TCU team that will look to pound the visitors into submission.
The Horned Frogs average 219 ypg on the ground behind a stable of runners. They are content to hit a big play occasionally when the opposing defense gets too intent on shutting down run. As for TCU’s defense, it’s been rock solid and even holding the Sooners to 35 points is an accomplishment considering what they have done in their other contests.
After the big win against Idaho last week the Aztecs are due for a letdown. In fact, San Diego State is a pathetic 0-17 SU (-22.2 ppg) & 0-16-1 ATS (-10.8 ppg) as an underdog of 4-29 points with less than 8 days rest off a SU win.
By the same token, the Horned Frogs figure to bounce back fast, especially against a conference foe. TCU is 9-0 SU (+32.1 ppg) & 9-0 ATS (+14.2 ppg) as a favorite of more than 8 points vs. an opponent not off a road SU loss of 14+ points & ATS loss.
Huge favorites at home from their 5th game on, have blasted conference opponents after getting blown out themselves. We have documented this with an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
From Game 5 on, play ON a conference home favorite of 24+ points off a SU loss of 22+ points.
Since 1993, these teams are 16-0 SU (+41.6 ppg) & 15-0-1 ATS (+13.1 ppg). We look for that trend to continue as the Horned Frogs should jump all over an Aztecs team that is likely to pack it in after getting down.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TCU 37 SAN DIEGO STATE 3
12:00 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION (Rated 1-6 Units)
Duke +13½ over GEORGIA TECH
The Blue Devils hit the road for the first time this season, as they invade Atlanta to do battle with the Yellow Jackets. Duke kicked off their ACC schedule in convincing fashion last weekend, as they defeated Virginia by a 31-3 score. With the outcome, Duke put an end to a 25-game ACC-losing streak, while also posting its largest margin of victory in 10 years. As for Georgia Tech, it had the week off to prepare for this game and the team also sits at 3-1 overall. The Jackets are off a blowout win over Mississippi State. The squad has split a pair of ACC bouts already, defeating Boston College and losing out to Virginia Tech.
The Blue Devils have been productive on the offensive side of the ball this season. The hire of David Cutliffe has made a HUGE difference with this team, as they are currently averaging a solid 31 ppg behind 373 total ypg. Last week, QB Thaddeus Lewis put together a solid outing, throwing for 160 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 18-of-32 pass attempts. He has completed over 61% of his tosses on the season and thrown for seven TDs.
On the defensive side of the things, Duke has been very sound as well this season, limiting opposing clubs to 16 ppg and 307 total ypg. The “D” is coming off its finest performance of the season, holding Virginia to only a FG.
With new head coach Paul Johnson at the helm, Georgia Tech has simply run all over their opponents this season, using their 306 ypg on the ground to average 29 ppg. In its most recent outing, GT amassed 500 total yards, with 438 of those yards coming on the ground, in the 38-7 win over Mississippi State. Starting QB Josh Nesbitt missed most of the game with a hamstring injury and is questionable for this weekend.
The Yellow Jackets have also been stout on defense early on, holding opponents to just 14 ppg and only 294 total ypg. In the squad's last game, the Jackets did surrender 407 total yards to Miss State, a very bad offensive team, but made up for it by creating four turnovers and notching three sacks.
Georgia Tech will challenge the Duke run defense for sure, but that doesn't figure to be anything new. The Devils already have taken on Johnson's previous team and held the Midshipmen to 206 yards on the ground, nearly 130 yards under their season average. With Nesbitt nursing the hamstring injury, Duke should be able to keep the Jackets from running wild.
We do like to play ON a team that recently did well against a certain type of offense and is facing the same type of attack again. The team will be in tune with how to slow down such an opponent and have the confidence to execute the gameplan, so the edge here clearly goes to Duke.
The Blue Devils continue to surprise the oddsmakers, as they are 3-0 ATS this season, and now they qualify for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which shows that road underdogs off a win that came with rest have fared very well against foes with rest off a win under the conditions outline. Specifically, it states:
Play ON a Saturday road underdog off a favorite SU win with 7+ days rest and not seeking revenge for a conference home SU loss & ATS loss of more than 18 points in the previous matchup last season vs. an opponent with 7+ days rest off a SU win and & ATS win of less than 34 points.
Since 1986, these teams are a super 17-0 ATS while beating the spread by more than 11 ppg on average. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech does not have a history of doing well off a bye, as they are 1-6 SU (-16 ppg) & 0-7 ATS (-15.1 ppg) with 9+ days rest.
Look for the Jackets to be a bit out of sync with the extra time off and with a hobbled quarterback, while a Blue Devils team brimming with confidence should take this game down to the wire for at least a comfortable spread win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: GEORGIA TECH 20 DUKE 17
2:00 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION (Rated 1-6 Units)
South Carolina +2½ over MISSISSIPPI
Fresh off a shocking victory at Florida Gators, the Rebels return home to host the Gamecocks. South Carolina is 3-2 on the season, but at 0-2 in conference play, very hungry for an SEC victory. Since those two setbacks to Vanderbilt and Georgia, the Gamecocks have managed two straight wins
As for Mississippi, it is coming off its first victory over a Top 5 foe in over 30 years, as it stunned the Gators, 31-30, last week. The Rebels are 1-1 in the SEC, as it also lost to Vanderbilt two weeks ago.
South Carolina coach Steven Spurrier has little patience when it comes to inconsistent or poor play at the quarterback position. Therefore, we expect to see Stephen Garcia get his first start here. Garcia is just a freshman, but he was the best QB on the field last week when he got in the game against UAB and connected on 13-of-20 passes for 131 yards with one touchdown with one interception. He also ran for an additional 86 yards and a TD. Top option at wideout, Kenny McKinley, was kept out of last week’s game due to injury but it looks like he is a go as well, which will certainly be a big boost to the Gamecocks offense.
It shouldn’t take a whole lot from the offense to keep South Carolina in the game, as they have a stellar defense. They didn’t allow a TD last week until a mere 24 seconds remained in the game, and yielded a mere 207 total yards, including 67 rushing yards. The club is yielding less than 13 ppg and permitting opponents to generate only 221 total ypg.
Ole Miss starting quarterback Jevan Snead connected on only 9-of-20 passes against Florida for 185 yards, but the Rebels achieved solid balance and were able to limit the amount of time that Heisman-winning quarterback Tim Tebow and his Gator offense had the ball. Ole Miss is racking up 30 ppg this season behind the offensive balance. Snead has thrown eight interceptions and completed just 52.5 percent of his tosses, so there is room for improvement.
The Ole Miss defense is the weak spot of the team, as they did surrender 443 total yards to Florida last weekend. Opponents are generating 23 ppg and 329 total ypg against Ole Miss, which should allow the Gamecocks to do some damage here.
Under Spurrier, South Carolina is 6-0 ATS off a spread loss of 7+ points, scoring 7+ points, and they are 2-0 ATS at Mississippi since at least 1980.
In what are expected to be close games, we generally like to play on the team with the superior defense. The Gamecocks should be able to neutralize Ole Miss’s offensive strength and force them to go with plays they are not well suited for.
We also like to play AGAINST a off its peak performance of the season. Whether a blowout win, upset, revenge victory, played the “spoiler”, or any win in which a team feels like they “just won the Super Bowl”, they will be hard-pressed to match that emotion, effort, and intensity next time out and will be due for a fall. Such is the case for the Rebels after their win at “The Swamp”.
An NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours confirms that very small home favorites have been dismal after a win as a big road underdog. It states:
Play AGAINST a Saturday home favorite of 3 points or less with less than 13 days rest off a road SU win as an underdog of more than 7 points vs. an opponent with less than 11 days rest not off a conference home favorite loss.
Since 1993, these teams are 0-14-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 2 TDs per game on average.
After a big upset win on the road against a conference rival, teams have let down with a bye coming up. This is documented by another POWER SYSTEM of ours which states:
In Games 2-10, play AGAINST a favorite of less than 28 points/pick ‘em with less than 10 days rest off a conference road SU win as an underdog of more than 4 points and before 7+ days rest.
Going back to 1997, these teams are an awful 0-18-1 ATS, failing to cover the number by nearly 11 ppg on average.
The Rebels qualify as a PLAY AGAINST team for both situations, which is precisely what we’ll do here, looking for the Gamecocks to take advantage of an unfocused foe.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: SOUTH CAROLINA 21 MISSISSIPPI 14
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Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 400,000♦ Texas Tech
2. 50,000♦ Air Force
1. Texas Tech- You want to talk mismatches? Well, today's match up between the high-powered Red Raiders offense and the Wildcats paper mache defense, may go down as the biggest mismatch of the week!
Guys, over the last two weeks we've seen the true face of this Kansas State D, getting totally exposed by Louisville and then UL Lafayette the following week, allowing a whopping 75 points combined in those contests! Sure, they looked great against the likes of North Texas and Montana State, but once they started to play some real competition (and UL Lafayette is hardly "real" competition) we saw what this unit was capable of, and it ain't much!
Enter Graham Harrell and this Red Raiders offense, which averages almost 46 ppg on 426 passing yards per contest! They've been downright nasty in winning all 4 games this season, and in their only real road test, at Nevada, they passed with flying colors, beating the Wolfpack 35-19 for the easy win and cover! Not only that, but Texas Tech comes into this game off a bye, which means they should be especially prepared to exploit the weak-ass Kansas State defense in this one!
On the flip side, once calling himself the "best QB in the Big 12" Josh Freeman looked anything but at Louisville, and while he had a great game agaisnt a sorry-ass UL Lafayette defense last week, he'll be tested once again this afternoon by the Red Raiders young, but solid stop-unit. Again look for coach Leach to have his defense ready with an extra week to prepare, and with an improved D-line thanks to a slew of transfers (allowing only 100 rushing yards per game on 3.2 yards per rush) and a ball-hawking secondary (10 picks) this Red Raiders defense is more than capable of slowing the Wildcats attack.
Bottom line, huge mismatch here, as the Red Raiders offense can and will shred a Wildcats stop-unit which hasn't been able to stop anybody the past two weeks! On the other side of the ball, while K-State will score points, it won't be nearly as consistently as they need to keep pace with the Red Raiders. Coming off a bye, look for Graham Harrell and company to drop the hammer on this Wildcats team Saturday afternoon.
Take Texas Tech over Kansas State as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Air Force- Interesting match up here, as Navy has owned this series of late, and coming off big-time wins in back-to-back weeks over Rutgers and Wake Forest, you'd think they'd be the play here... Think again, as Air Force has the two biggest factors in this match up in their favor - Revenge & an extra week to prepare!
Clearly, the Falcons hold the strong revenge edge, incl. losing 31-20 to Navy last season on the road. But its not only that, as they're final game before the bye was a tough home loss to Utah, where they were held to an embrassaing 53 rushing yards on 42 carries (or 1.9 yards per rush). You know damn well coach Calhoun used the extra week to work on his offense, and they should run the ball far more efficiently against a much smaller Navy defense in this one.
Navy on the other hand, could be in for a major letdown here, coming off a huge upset win at Wake Forest last week. Clearly the Demon Deacons were in a big-time letdown spot themsleves, and that's exactly what happened. Playing their 4th away game in 5 weeks, and facing a team coming off a bye, is a recipe for disaster as far as I'm concerned.
Finally, did you know the Falcons have covered 10 straight regular season games?! They've been a cash-cow at home for a long time now, and coming off a tough home loss to Utah, I expect they'll come out fired up in this one. In the end, the Falcons have the motivational, situational, and preparational edges necessary to both win and cover this contest, and that's exactly what they'll do!
Take Air Force over Navy in afternoon college football action.
-------------------------
Good luck today all!
My personal plays -- PSU, OhioSt, TTech, USC, and Florida
Today's Games...
1. 400,000♦ Texas Tech
2. 50,000♦ Air Force
1. Texas Tech- You want to talk mismatches? Well, today's match up between the high-powered Red Raiders offense and the Wildcats paper mache defense, may go down as the biggest mismatch of the week!
Guys, over the last two weeks we've seen the true face of this Kansas State D, getting totally exposed by Louisville and then UL Lafayette the following week, allowing a whopping 75 points combined in those contests! Sure, they looked great against the likes of North Texas and Montana State, but once they started to play some real competition (and UL Lafayette is hardly "real" competition) we saw what this unit was capable of, and it ain't much!
Enter Graham Harrell and this Red Raiders offense, which averages almost 46 ppg on 426 passing yards per contest! They've been downright nasty in winning all 4 games this season, and in their only real road test, at Nevada, they passed with flying colors, beating the Wolfpack 35-19 for the easy win and cover! Not only that, but Texas Tech comes into this game off a bye, which means they should be especially prepared to exploit the weak-ass Kansas State defense in this one!
On the flip side, once calling himself the "best QB in the Big 12" Josh Freeman looked anything but at Louisville, and while he had a great game agaisnt a sorry-ass UL Lafayette defense last week, he'll be tested once again this afternoon by the Red Raiders young, but solid stop-unit. Again look for coach Leach to have his defense ready with an extra week to prepare, and with an improved D-line thanks to a slew of transfers (allowing only 100 rushing yards per game on 3.2 yards per rush) and a ball-hawking secondary (10 picks) this Red Raiders defense is more than capable of slowing the Wildcats attack.
Bottom line, huge mismatch here, as the Red Raiders offense can and will shred a Wildcats stop-unit which hasn't been able to stop anybody the past two weeks! On the other side of the ball, while K-State will score points, it won't be nearly as consistently as they need to keep pace with the Red Raiders. Coming off a bye, look for Graham Harrell and company to drop the hammer on this Wildcats team Saturday afternoon.
Take Texas Tech over Kansas State as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Air Force- Interesting match up here, as Navy has owned this series of late, and coming off big-time wins in back-to-back weeks over Rutgers and Wake Forest, you'd think they'd be the play here... Think again, as Air Force has the two biggest factors in this match up in their favor - Revenge & an extra week to prepare!
Clearly, the Falcons hold the strong revenge edge, incl. losing 31-20 to Navy last season on the road. But its not only that, as they're final game before the bye was a tough home loss to Utah, where they were held to an embrassaing 53 rushing yards on 42 carries (or 1.9 yards per rush). You know damn well coach Calhoun used the extra week to work on his offense, and they should run the ball far more efficiently against a much smaller Navy defense in this one.
Navy on the other hand, could be in for a major letdown here, coming off a huge upset win at Wake Forest last week. Clearly the Demon Deacons were in a big-time letdown spot themsleves, and that's exactly what happened. Playing their 4th away game in 5 weeks, and facing a team coming off a bye, is a recipe for disaster as far as I'm concerned.
Finally, did you know the Falcons have covered 10 straight regular season games?! They've been a cash-cow at home for a long time now, and coming off a tough home loss to Utah, I expect they'll come out fired up in this one. In the end, the Falcons have the motivational, situational, and preparational edges necessary to both win and cover this contest, and that's exactly what they'll do!
Take Air Force over Navy in afternoon college football action.
-------------------------
Good luck today all!
My personal plays -- PSU, OhioSt, TTech, USC, and Florida
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>Computer Crushers</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Saturday, October 04, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: The STRONGEST PLAY in all of College Football is now 69-33 run since 2006! These are by far the STRONGEST PLAYS IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL and they have a history of hitting over 68% the past 19 years! Today you can get our 500K CONFERENCE USA CRUSHER PLAY OF THE YEAR for only $25 and you MUST WIN THIS Game or you will not be charged!!! We are currently on an 18-4 run with all of our guranteed selections</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>10/3/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>500K CONFERENCE USA CRUSHER PLAY OF THE YEAR
392 Tulsa -16 8:00 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
$25.00 Guaranteed: The STRONGEST PLAY in all of College Football is now 69-33 run since 2006! These are by far the STRONGEST PLAYS IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL and they have a history of hitting over 68% the past 19 years! Today you can get our 500K CONFERENCE USA CRUSHER PLAY OF THE YEAR for only $25 and you MUST WIN THIS Game or you will not be charged!!! We are currently on an 18-4 run with all of our guranteed selections</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>10/3/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>500K CONFERENCE USA CRUSHER PLAY OF THE YEAR
392 Tulsa -16 8:00 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>Computer Crushers</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Saturday, October 04, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: The COLLEGE CRUSHER PLAYS are by far the STRONGEST PLAY IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL and they have a history of hitting over 65% the past 22 years! Today we are featuring our COLLEGE CRUSHER BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK! You can get this GUARANTEED WINNER for just $25 and you pay only after you win! This is by far the STRONGEST COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAY ON THIS WEB SITE DO NOT MISS IT!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>10/3/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>COLLEGE CRUSHER GAME OF THE WEEK
388 Oklahoma St -24.5 7:00 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
$25.00 Guaranteed: The COLLEGE CRUSHER PLAYS are by far the STRONGEST PLAY IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL and they have a history of hitting over 65% the past 22 years! Today we are featuring our COLLEGE CRUSHER BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK! You can get this GUARANTEED WINNER for just $25 and you pay only after you win! This is by far the STRONGEST COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAY ON THIS WEB SITE DO NOT MISS IT!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>10/3/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>COLLEGE CRUSHER GAME OF THE WEEK
388 Oklahoma St -24.5 7:00 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
he has a big 10game of the year today its posted and here is sunday play
The Experts Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: I have isolated a Selection today that will beat the line by at least TWO TD'S! You can get our ULTIMATE EXPERTS NFL PLAY OF THE MONTH today for just $25 and you will be a winner or you will not be charged! WE ARE ON FIRE as we ar currently on a 34-15 RUN! ARE YOU?!? 10/4/2008
ULTIMATE EXPERTS NFL PLAY OF THE MONTH
426 Arizona -1 4:15 EST
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>William Kidd</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Saturday, October 04, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: The KIDD is the BEST when it comes to COLLEGE FOOTBALL!! Do you remember last year the KIDD finished on a 21-11 run, by far the STRONGEST finish of any handicapper anywhere! Well the KIDD will pick up where he left of last season with his QUADRUPLE COLLEGE FOOTBALL REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR! Get this Guaranteed Winner NOW for just $25 and pay only after you win! 28-14 RUN!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>10/3/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>QUADRUPLE COLLEGE FOOTBALL REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR
394 USC -16 8:00 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
$25.00 Guaranteed: The KIDD is the BEST when it comes to COLLEGE FOOTBALL!! Do you remember last year the KIDD finished on a 21-11 run, by far the STRONGEST finish of any handicapper anywhere! Well the KIDD will pick up where he left of last season with his QUADRUPLE COLLEGE FOOTBALL REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR! Get this Guaranteed Winner NOW for just $25 and pay only after you win! 28-14 RUN!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>10/3/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>QUADRUPLE COLLEGE FOOTBALL REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR
394 USC -16 8:00 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
