Bill Bravenec (10-7-1 YTD)
October 3rd, 2008
One dog this week, plus some heavy chalk which I think will be big blowouts due to mismatches on both sides of the ball.
Saturday, October 4
Iowa + 6 1/2 at Michigan State
Both teams are similar on offense, with strong running games and mediocre passing games. However, Iowa has better defensive statistics, giving up 282 yards and 10 points per game, compared to Michigan State giving up 354 yards and 17 points per game. Iowa gives up 3.1 yards per rush while Michigan State gives up 4.4 yards per rush. Iowa’s 2 narrow losses to 4-1 Pitt and 5-0 Northwestern don’t look so bad now. I’ll take the defense and the points.
Nevada - 24 at Idaho
Nevada is ranked #8 in total offense and should be able to move the ball and score at will against Idaho’s #118 defense. I don’t think Idaho’s #97 offense will be able to keep up. While Nevada’s defense does not look that good on paper, this is the result of facing Missouri’s #2 offense (596 yards and 54 points per game) and Texas Tech’s #3 offense (573 yards and 46 points per game).
TCU - 24 1/2 vs. San Diego State
TCU averages 395 yards and 36 points per game, and should be able to move the ball and score on San Diego State’s #100 defense. I especially like TCU’s rushing offense, which has accounted for 19 TDs and averages 213 yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry, going against San Diego State’s rushing defense, which allows 211 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. On the other side of the ball, TCU’s defense is ranked #5 and allows 231 yards and 13 points per game (even after playing #1 Oklahoma last week). They should be able to shut down San Diego State’s offense, which averages 368 yards and 24 points, but has not faced a defense near the caliber of TCU’s (San Diego State only averaged 290 yards and 17 points before blowing out Idaho last week).
Arizona - 22 vs. Washington
Arizona’s offense averages 424 yards and 43 points per game and should be able to score at will against Washington’s #119 defense which allows 505 yards and 44 points per game. Last week, Washington’s defense allowed 466 yards and 35 points to a Stanford team that entered the game averaging only 272 yards and 22 points per game. If Washington’s defense allows Arizona’s offense to exceed their averages by the same margin, Arizona will gain 618 yards and score 56 points. Washington will be without starting QB Locker. Arizona is ranked #2 in total defense and #1 in passing defense and should be able to shut down Washington’s offense, especially with a redshirt freshman QB making his first start.
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