StatFox Super Situations
NBA | UTAH at INDIANA
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points marginal losing team from last season (40% to 49%) playing a team who had a losing record, after 1 or more consecutive losses
55-24 since 1997. ( 69.6% | 28.6 units )
NBA | SACRAMENTO at LA CLIPPERS
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) good shooting team from last season - made >=45.5% of their shot attempts
129-31 over the last 5 seasons. ( 80.6% | 56.2 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 0.0 units )
NBA | UTAH at INDIANA
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games, after 1 or more consecutive losses
97-51 since 1997. ( 65.5% | 40.9 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
NBA | UTAH at INDIANA
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points marginal losing team from last season (40% to 49%) playing a team who had a losing record, after 1 or more consecutive losses
55-24 since 1997. ( 69.6% | 28.6 units )
NBA | SACRAMENTO at LA CLIPPERS
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) good shooting team from last season - made >=45.5% of their shot attempts
129-31 over the last 5 seasons. ( 80.6% | 56.2 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 0.0 units )
NBA | UTAH at INDIANA
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games, after 1 or more consecutive losses
97-51 since 1997. ( 65.5% | 40.9 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
StatFox Super Situations
CFB | UCF at CINCINNATI
Play Over - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
CFB | MASSACHUSETTS at BALL ST
Play Against - A home team vs. the money line (BALL ST) off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season
87-50 over the last 10 seasons. ( 63.5% | 0.0 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.0 units )
CFB | IDAHO at NEW MEXICO ST
Play Against - A road team vs. the 1rst half line (IDAHO) in a game involving two poor rushing teams - both outrushed by opponents by 50+ YPG after 7+ games, in conference games
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
CFB | UCF at CINCINNATI
Play Over - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
CFB | MASSACHUSETTS at BALL ST
Play Against - A home team vs. the money line (BALL ST) off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season
87-50 over the last 10 seasons. ( 63.5% | 0.0 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.0 units )
CFB | IDAHO at NEW MEXICO ST
Play Against - A road team vs. the 1rst half line (IDAHO) in a game involving two poor rushing teams - both outrushed by opponents by 50+ YPG after 7+ games, in conference games
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
StatFox Super Situations
MLB | KANSAS CITY at NY METS
Play On - Any team (NY METS) terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts
81-52 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.9% | 36.7 units )
23-20 this year. ( 53.5% | 5.9 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | KANSAS CITY at NY METS
NY METS are 36-15 (+20.9 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: NY METS (5.5) , OPPONENT (3.5)
MLB | KANSAS CITY at NY METS
Play On - Any team (NY METS) terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts
81-52 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.9% | 36.7 units )
23-20 this year. ( 53.5% | 5.9 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | KANSAS CITY at NY METS
NY METS are 36-15 (+20.9 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: NY METS (5.5) , OPPONENT (3.5)
Hondo
Hondo joins up with Navy
Hondo plunged deeper into debt Friday night when Louisville came up well short of the cover against Wake Forest, causing the negative number to rise to 2,609 bellinos.
Saturday: Mr. Aitch hopes an investment on Navy will be ship-shape — 20 units. Also, he is chomping at the bit for a win by the Gators — 20 units on Florida.
Hondo joins up with Navy
Hondo plunged deeper into debt Friday night when Louisville came up well short of the cover against Wake Forest, causing the negative number to rise to 2,609 bellinos.
Saturday: Mr. Aitch hopes an investment on Navy will be ship-shape — 20 units. Also, he is chomping at the bit for a win by the Gators — 20 units on Florida.
Dominic Brando's Inner Circle (NCAAF 3-0 Friday, 68-35-5 On the Season)
All Regular One Unit Plays (this is what I have as of 8AM, they always send more)
#152 Florida Pick/-125
#136 NC State +13/-145
#180 Washington State +13/-145
#184 Southern Miss -23/-125
#155 Temple/Notre Dame Over 49/-125
#159 Oklahoma State Cowboys Money Line -125
All Regular One Unit Plays (this is what I have as of 8AM, they always send more)
#152 Florida Pick/-125
#136 NC State +13/-145
#180 Washington State +13/-145
#184 Southern Miss -23/-125
#155 Temple/Notre Dame Over 49/-125
#159 Oklahoma State Cowboys Money Line -125
Joe Gavazzi
NFL WEEK 8
ECONOMY CLUB
By: Joe Gavazzi, Winning Sports Advice
INTRODUCTION (READ THIS SO YOU KNOW WHAT IS GOING ON!)
Just a reminder once again this week to go to www.winningsportsadvice.com, where you can read the rest of the POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS PLAYS, simply by clicking on FREE PICKS on the left side of the page. These picks, after 8 weeks, are an amazing 150-90 ATS (63%).
IMPORTANT NOTE: while you are at winningsportsadvice.com, please take a moment to review the outstanding start to our late telephone service for the season. In addition, your ECONOMY CLUB plays went 3-3 ATS last week and continue to waiver around the 50% mark. That is a divergent beginning to our record on these pages last year of 52-37 ATS and the last 2 years of CFB which went 57-33 ATS. Remember to review the NOVEMBER NOCKOUT ADunder this week’s CFB STEAMROLLER OF THE WEEK. Then call 724-715-7186. Everyone should be on board for NOVEMBER NOCKOUT … mention you are an Economy Club member and save yourself some money!!!
Now, on to the Week 9 winners for Sunday, November 1st! POINTSPREAD WINNERS ARE UNDERLINED IN THE TITLE.
______________________________________________________________________________________________
Sunday, November 1, 2015
NFL STEAMROLLER OF THE WEEK… Minnesota Vikings (+1-)
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-1-) 1:00 EST
First of all, I must apologize for last Sunday when our plan for a 6% selection on these Vikings was disrupted by news that star Vikings RB Peterson was suffering from an “undisclosed illness.” The later rumor was that he had swallowed chewing tobacco on the flight. I subsequently reduced the rating on the game to “only a 5%” then watched as Peterson played as if he was in full health, led the Vikings to an overland advantage against Detroit of 35/140 to 17/77, and the Vikings cruised to a 28-19 victory. That has lifted the Vikings’ recent run to 13-3 ATS. It is based on the fact that second year HC Zimmer is winning NFL games the old fashioned way, with a ground game averaging 30/128/4.3 and a defense allowing just 17 PPG. Look for them again to have their way, overland, against a Chicago Bear defensive front allowing 125/4.5. The Bears are rebuilding under first year HC Fox and DC Fangio. They do have the #10 yardage defense in the league at 345 YPG, but other indiscretions mean they are allowing 30 PPG, tied for the worst defensive number in the league. The Bears still carry the albatross that is QB Cutler, and negative point spread records that show them to be 6-14 ATS in divisional play recently, and 10-18 ATS as dog. Last time the Bears lined up they lost 37-34 to Detroit, affording the Lions their only victory of the season. Yes, that would be the same Lions team that Minnesota easily handled last week.
NFL UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK… Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7-)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-7-) 1:00 EST
Atlanta could only squeeze out a 10-7 victory at Tennessee last week, but it was enough to keep the public entrenched on the side of a team who has made the NFL’s biggest improvement this season. A 6-10 SU team of last year has emerged with a 6-1 SU mark to open 2015. New HC Quinn is at the controls, with QB Ryan and RB Freeman authoring an offense that averages 28 PPG and 403 YPG. The public also may remember that it was on a Thursday night game last year that the Falcons led the Bucs 56-0. A few think the public are the only ones who remember that. Be assured that it is entrenched in the minds of all the players who were on each of these teams last season. Despite last week’s 31-30 defeat, the Bucs are likely to enter today’s game with some confidence. They outrushed Washington 30/190 to 19/50, and outgained them 479-355, in a 0 net turnover game. The Bucs actually led the contest 24-0 before succumbing to the inability to handle a big lead. It should not be lost on those analyzing this game that this year’s Tampa Bay OC Koetter held the same position for Atlanta in the three previous years. Yes, he will be in QB Ryan’s head. Bucs have already won as many games this season as last (2). Despite the 2-4 SU record, they are outrushing foes 364-328, and outgaining them 6.0 to 5.4 YP play. With a ground game that is at least the equal of the Falcons at 30/134, it will be little surprise to this bureau if the Bucs make a game of this, with the ability to steal one down the stretch. That would mean it was “lesson learned” from last week.
NFL PERCEPTION/REALITY GAME OF THE WEEK… Denver Broncos (+3)
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Denver Broncos 8:30 EST
Apparently the public believes that the only two players on this field will be Green Bay QB Rodgers and Denver QB Manning. And with the help of ESPN and other media outlets, we all know what that perception is. Green Bay QB Rodgers is in his prime, completing 68% with a 15/2 ratio. Denver’s aging QB Manning is completing just 62% of his passes, with a 7/10 ratio. In addition, the public knows that Green Bay has outscored Denver by an average of 33-13 in their three previous meetings. Both teams are rested, a situation that has been a positive for each. Green Bay is 9-1 ATS following a bye, while the Broncos are 14-3 SU ATS home following a bye. Those perceptions aside, there are some very true realities in this game. First and foremost is that the Broncos are allowing a league low 17 PPG, 281 YPG, and only 4.5 YP play. It’s never easy to fade the #1 defense in the league when they are an underdog. Secondly, is the strong home field of the Broncos, which finds them to be 24-2 SU the last 3+ years since QB Manning has resurrected his career in the Mile High city. Yet the perception continues to dominate the betting line, leaving us with the Denver Broncos as a 3 point home dog, with an undefeated record on a strong home field with the best defense in the league. I guess we’ll just have to settle for that.
NFL WEEK 8
ECONOMY CLUB
By: Joe Gavazzi, Winning Sports Advice
INTRODUCTION (READ THIS SO YOU KNOW WHAT IS GOING ON!)
Just a reminder once again this week to go to www.winningsportsadvice.com, where you can read the rest of the POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS PLAYS, simply by clicking on FREE PICKS on the left side of the page. These picks, after 8 weeks, are an amazing 150-90 ATS (63%).
IMPORTANT NOTE: while you are at winningsportsadvice.com, please take a moment to review the outstanding start to our late telephone service for the season. In addition, your ECONOMY CLUB plays went 3-3 ATS last week and continue to waiver around the 50% mark. That is a divergent beginning to our record on these pages last year of 52-37 ATS and the last 2 years of CFB which went 57-33 ATS. Remember to review the NOVEMBER NOCKOUT ADunder this week’s CFB STEAMROLLER OF THE WEEK. Then call 724-715-7186. Everyone should be on board for NOVEMBER NOCKOUT … mention you are an Economy Club member and save yourself some money!!!
Now, on to the Week 9 winners for Sunday, November 1st! POINTSPREAD WINNERS ARE UNDERLINED IN THE TITLE.
______________________________________________________________________________________________
Sunday, November 1, 2015
NFL STEAMROLLER OF THE WEEK… Minnesota Vikings (+1-)
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-1-) 1:00 EST
First of all, I must apologize for last Sunday when our plan for a 6% selection on these Vikings was disrupted by news that star Vikings RB Peterson was suffering from an “undisclosed illness.” The later rumor was that he had swallowed chewing tobacco on the flight. I subsequently reduced the rating on the game to “only a 5%” then watched as Peterson played as if he was in full health, led the Vikings to an overland advantage against Detroit of 35/140 to 17/77, and the Vikings cruised to a 28-19 victory. That has lifted the Vikings’ recent run to 13-3 ATS. It is based on the fact that second year HC Zimmer is winning NFL games the old fashioned way, with a ground game averaging 30/128/4.3 and a defense allowing just 17 PPG. Look for them again to have their way, overland, against a Chicago Bear defensive front allowing 125/4.5. The Bears are rebuilding under first year HC Fox and DC Fangio. They do have the #10 yardage defense in the league at 345 YPG, but other indiscretions mean they are allowing 30 PPG, tied for the worst defensive number in the league. The Bears still carry the albatross that is QB Cutler, and negative point spread records that show them to be 6-14 ATS in divisional play recently, and 10-18 ATS as dog. Last time the Bears lined up they lost 37-34 to Detroit, affording the Lions their only victory of the season. Yes, that would be the same Lions team that Minnesota easily handled last week.
NFL UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK… Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7-)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-7-) 1:00 EST
Atlanta could only squeeze out a 10-7 victory at Tennessee last week, but it was enough to keep the public entrenched on the side of a team who has made the NFL’s biggest improvement this season. A 6-10 SU team of last year has emerged with a 6-1 SU mark to open 2015. New HC Quinn is at the controls, with QB Ryan and RB Freeman authoring an offense that averages 28 PPG and 403 YPG. The public also may remember that it was on a Thursday night game last year that the Falcons led the Bucs 56-0. A few think the public are the only ones who remember that. Be assured that it is entrenched in the minds of all the players who were on each of these teams last season. Despite last week’s 31-30 defeat, the Bucs are likely to enter today’s game with some confidence. They outrushed Washington 30/190 to 19/50, and outgained them 479-355, in a 0 net turnover game. The Bucs actually led the contest 24-0 before succumbing to the inability to handle a big lead. It should not be lost on those analyzing this game that this year’s Tampa Bay OC Koetter held the same position for Atlanta in the three previous years. Yes, he will be in QB Ryan’s head. Bucs have already won as many games this season as last (2). Despite the 2-4 SU record, they are outrushing foes 364-328, and outgaining them 6.0 to 5.4 YP play. With a ground game that is at least the equal of the Falcons at 30/134, it will be little surprise to this bureau if the Bucs make a game of this, with the ability to steal one down the stretch. That would mean it was “lesson learned” from last week.
NFL PERCEPTION/REALITY GAME OF THE WEEK… Denver Broncos (+3)
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Denver Broncos 8:30 EST
Apparently the public believes that the only two players on this field will be Green Bay QB Rodgers and Denver QB Manning. And with the help of ESPN and other media outlets, we all know what that perception is. Green Bay QB Rodgers is in his prime, completing 68% with a 15/2 ratio. Denver’s aging QB Manning is completing just 62% of his passes, with a 7/10 ratio. In addition, the public knows that Green Bay has outscored Denver by an average of 33-13 in their three previous meetings. Both teams are rested, a situation that has been a positive for each. Green Bay is 9-1 ATS following a bye, while the Broncos are 14-3 SU ATS home following a bye. Those perceptions aside, there are some very true realities in this game. First and foremost is that the Broncos are allowing a league low 17 PPG, 281 YPG, and only 4.5 YP play. It’s never easy to fade the #1 defense in the league when they are an underdog. Secondly, is the strong home field of the Broncos, which finds them to be 24-2 SU the last 3+ years since QB Manning has resurrected his career in the Mile High city. Yet the perception continues to dominate the betting line, leaving us with the Denver Broncos as a 3 point home dog, with an undefeated record on a strong home field with the best defense in the league. I guess we’ll just have to settle for that.
CFB WEEK 9
ECONOMY CLUB
By: Joe Gavazzi, Winning Sports Advice
INTRODUCTION (READ THIS SO YOU KNOW WHAT IS GOING ON!)
Just a reminder once again this week to go to www.winningsportsadvice.com, where you can read the rest of the POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS PLAYS, simply by clicking on FREE PICKS on the left side of the page. These picks, after 8 weeks, are an amazing 150-90 ATS (63%).
IMPORTANT NOTE: while you are at winningsportsadvice.com, please take a moment to review the outstanding start to our late telephone service for the season. In addition, your ECONOMY CLUB plays went 3-3 ATS last week and continue to waiver around the 50% mark. That is a divergent beginning to our record on these pages last year of 52-37 ATS and the last 2 years of CFB which went 57-33 ATS. Remember to review the November Nockout Ad under this week’s STEAMROLLER OF THE WEEK. Then call 724-715-7186. Everyone should be on board for November Nockout … mention you are an Economy Club member and save yourself some money!!!
Now, on to the Week 9 winners for Saturday, October 31st! POINTSPREAD WINNERS ARE UNDERLINED IN THE TITLE.
______________________________________________________________________________________________
Saturday, October 31, 2015
CFB STEAMROLLER GAME OF THE WEEK …UL Lafayette (-11-)
UL Monroe at UL Lafayette (-11-) 5:00 ET
This is our Economy Club STEAMROLLER GAME OF THE WEEK. In the ensuing analysis, you will see why the fundamentals clearly overcome the series history for it to qualify as such. But, it is NOT our 6% STEAMROLLER GAME OF THE YEAR, which will be released to ALL NOVEMBER NOCKOUT clients on Saturday morning at 11 am ET. To refresh your memory, this is our 27[SUP]th[/SUP] Annual NOVEMBER NOCKOUT. It will feature at least 6 (6%) PLAYS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY 52-10 ATS! THESE 10 PLAYS ARE GUARANTEED TO WIN AT LEAST 70% AGAINST YOUR LINE or my entire Executive Service through the Super Bowl is FREE! As a special bonus, you receive the entire month (5 weeks) of Executive Service for FREE with this package. As an Economy Club member, I invite you to call me at 724-715-7186 for a reduced price on this package. I will still honor the guarantee at this reduced price. Now, back to football! This regional rivalry has been hard fought with narrow results. Seven of the last 8 games in the series have been decided by fewer than 10 points. UL Monroe is 8-1 ATS at this site. But, all that history must take a backseat to the current realities. UL Monroe is having a horrible year, as suggested by their 1-6 SU, 2-4 ATS record, in which they have a (-52) net AFP. This includes 0-3 SU ATS in Sun Belt play. It has certainly not helped their mental that 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] string QB Fitzwater died in October. Nor, is it helpful that their best receiver Caeser (ankle) will miss yet another game. Monroe was worn down by an early season schedule against Georgia, Alabama, GA Southern and App St. Yet, at 1-5SU, they had a chance to salvage their season at lowly Idaho last week. They fell flat on their face against the inept Vandals, being outgained 489-243 in a (27-13) loss, despite a (+3) net TO margin. Shortly into this game, they will understand they are doomed for their 7[SUP]th[/SUP] loss with no opportunity to reach a Bowl. As such, it will be time to toss the towel. Main reason why they will get STEAMROLLED is a 200 Club defense that allows 253/5.1 overland. Rival UL Lafayette will be happy to comply. The Cajuns are used to success with 4 consecutive 9-win seasons under 5[SUP]th[/SUP] year HC Hudspeth. This year, however, the Cajuns are just 2-4 SU after the first half of their schedule. They come off a (37-27) loss at Arkansas St., despite 200 Club numbers and a yardage advantage of 485-435. With 11 days to prepare and a schedule which will have them comfortably favored in 5 of their 6 games, there is still ample hope for a 9-win season once again. Look for UL Lafayette to use their balanced-explosive offense to dominate the point of attack and record a rare STEAMROLLING victory in this series.
.
PERCEPTION/REALITY GAME OF THE WEEK …Oklahoma St. (-3)
Oklahoma St. (-3) at Texas Tech 3:30 ET ESPN
The PERCEPTION here is that the explosive offense of Texas Tech which averages 47 PPG and 601 YPG makes them a competitive team against this level of competition. The REALITY is when stepping up in class, in the last month, they have lost to Oklahoma (63-27) and to Baylor (63-35). Oklahoma St. may not quite be in the class of those two, but they are certainly not far behind with victories in Big 12 play against Texas, Kansas St. and WVU. That’s all part of a mark that shows them to be an undefeated 7-0 SU with a (+33) net AFP. YET THEY ARE FAVORED BY AT LEAST 10 POINTS LESS THAN WHERE THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN OPENING WEEK. The REALITY is that Oklahoma St. (who has a 40/479 offense) HAS THE FAR SUPERIOR DEFENSE. While the Red Raiders are allowing 40 PPG and at least 280 YPG BOTH running AND passing, Oklahoma St. has a defense that allows just 19 PPG, 316 YPG and 4.5 YP play. Defense the difference in a series that has seen the Cowboys cover 5/6, including the last 3 trips to this site.
UNDERDOG GAME OF THE WEEK … Syracuse (+20-)
Syracuse at Florida St. (-20-) NOON ET ABC TV
Despite underachieving against the number for the last 2 seasons, Florida St. was 19-1 SU in that timeframe when they entered their game at GA Tech last week. On numerous occasions, the Sems roared from behind for victory or squeezed out narrow wins. As a result, they were just 6-13 ATS in that timeframe. Last week, the chickens came home to roost! You can only survive so many close games before random variance begins to work against you. Such was the case last week, when GA Tech (mired in a 0-5 SU ATS losing streak) trailed Florida St. in the closing minute. But, the Yellow Jackets blocked a Florida St. field goal and returned it 68 yards for the game winning TD. Just like that, the Florida St. undefeated bubble had burst and they had lost their first ACC game in 29 starts! With an opportunity for salvation next week against Clemson, it is tough to see how the Sems bounce back big in the face of undefeated letdown. Syracuse suffered their own heartbreak last week, when in consecutive weeks they lost a close game to Pitt. But, behind QB Dungey, who completes 65% of their passes with a 11/3 ratio and with his big target, WR Ishmal, the Orangemen have enough to come in comfortably under this number against a Florida St. team who is just 2-8 ATS laying double digits. Make your UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK PLAY on Syracuse.
ECONOMY CLUB
By: Joe Gavazzi, Winning Sports Advice
INTRODUCTION (READ THIS SO YOU KNOW WHAT IS GOING ON!)
Just a reminder once again this week to go to www.winningsportsadvice.com, where you can read the rest of the POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS PLAYS, simply by clicking on FREE PICKS on the left side of the page. These picks, after 8 weeks, are an amazing 150-90 ATS (63%).
IMPORTANT NOTE: while you are at winningsportsadvice.com, please take a moment to review the outstanding start to our late telephone service for the season. In addition, your ECONOMY CLUB plays went 3-3 ATS last week and continue to waiver around the 50% mark. That is a divergent beginning to our record on these pages last year of 52-37 ATS and the last 2 years of CFB which went 57-33 ATS. Remember to review the November Nockout Ad under this week’s STEAMROLLER OF THE WEEK. Then call 724-715-7186. Everyone should be on board for November Nockout … mention you are an Economy Club member and save yourself some money!!!
Now, on to the Week 9 winners for Saturday, October 31st! POINTSPREAD WINNERS ARE UNDERLINED IN THE TITLE.
______________________________________________________________________________________________
Saturday, October 31, 2015
CFB STEAMROLLER GAME OF THE WEEK …UL Lafayette (-11-)
UL Monroe at UL Lafayette (-11-) 5:00 ET
This is our Economy Club STEAMROLLER GAME OF THE WEEK. In the ensuing analysis, you will see why the fundamentals clearly overcome the series history for it to qualify as such. But, it is NOT our 6% STEAMROLLER GAME OF THE YEAR, which will be released to ALL NOVEMBER NOCKOUT clients on Saturday morning at 11 am ET. To refresh your memory, this is our 27[SUP]th[/SUP] Annual NOVEMBER NOCKOUT. It will feature at least 6 (6%) PLAYS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY 52-10 ATS! THESE 10 PLAYS ARE GUARANTEED TO WIN AT LEAST 70% AGAINST YOUR LINE or my entire Executive Service through the Super Bowl is FREE! As a special bonus, you receive the entire month (5 weeks) of Executive Service for FREE with this package. As an Economy Club member, I invite you to call me at 724-715-7186 for a reduced price on this package. I will still honor the guarantee at this reduced price. Now, back to football! This regional rivalry has been hard fought with narrow results. Seven of the last 8 games in the series have been decided by fewer than 10 points. UL Monroe is 8-1 ATS at this site. But, all that history must take a backseat to the current realities. UL Monroe is having a horrible year, as suggested by their 1-6 SU, 2-4 ATS record, in which they have a (-52) net AFP. This includes 0-3 SU ATS in Sun Belt play. It has certainly not helped their mental that 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] string QB Fitzwater died in October. Nor, is it helpful that their best receiver Caeser (ankle) will miss yet another game. Monroe was worn down by an early season schedule against Georgia, Alabama, GA Southern and App St. Yet, at 1-5SU, they had a chance to salvage their season at lowly Idaho last week. They fell flat on their face against the inept Vandals, being outgained 489-243 in a (27-13) loss, despite a (+3) net TO margin. Shortly into this game, they will understand they are doomed for their 7[SUP]th[/SUP] loss with no opportunity to reach a Bowl. As such, it will be time to toss the towel. Main reason why they will get STEAMROLLED is a 200 Club defense that allows 253/5.1 overland. Rival UL Lafayette will be happy to comply. The Cajuns are used to success with 4 consecutive 9-win seasons under 5[SUP]th[/SUP] year HC Hudspeth. This year, however, the Cajuns are just 2-4 SU after the first half of their schedule. They come off a (37-27) loss at Arkansas St., despite 200 Club numbers and a yardage advantage of 485-435. With 11 days to prepare and a schedule which will have them comfortably favored in 5 of their 6 games, there is still ample hope for a 9-win season once again. Look for UL Lafayette to use their balanced-explosive offense to dominate the point of attack and record a rare STEAMROLLING victory in this series.
.
PERCEPTION/REALITY GAME OF THE WEEK …Oklahoma St. (-3)
Oklahoma St. (-3) at Texas Tech 3:30 ET ESPN
The PERCEPTION here is that the explosive offense of Texas Tech which averages 47 PPG and 601 YPG makes them a competitive team against this level of competition. The REALITY is when stepping up in class, in the last month, they have lost to Oklahoma (63-27) and to Baylor (63-35). Oklahoma St. may not quite be in the class of those two, but they are certainly not far behind with victories in Big 12 play against Texas, Kansas St. and WVU. That’s all part of a mark that shows them to be an undefeated 7-0 SU with a (+33) net AFP. YET THEY ARE FAVORED BY AT LEAST 10 POINTS LESS THAN WHERE THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN OPENING WEEK. The REALITY is that Oklahoma St. (who has a 40/479 offense) HAS THE FAR SUPERIOR DEFENSE. While the Red Raiders are allowing 40 PPG and at least 280 YPG BOTH running AND passing, Oklahoma St. has a defense that allows just 19 PPG, 316 YPG and 4.5 YP play. Defense the difference in a series that has seen the Cowboys cover 5/6, including the last 3 trips to this site.
UNDERDOG GAME OF THE WEEK … Syracuse (+20-)
Syracuse at Florida St. (-20-) NOON ET ABC TV
Despite underachieving against the number for the last 2 seasons, Florida St. was 19-1 SU in that timeframe when they entered their game at GA Tech last week. On numerous occasions, the Sems roared from behind for victory or squeezed out narrow wins. As a result, they were just 6-13 ATS in that timeframe. Last week, the chickens came home to roost! You can only survive so many close games before random variance begins to work against you. Such was the case last week, when GA Tech (mired in a 0-5 SU ATS losing streak) trailed Florida St. in the closing minute. But, the Yellow Jackets blocked a Florida St. field goal and returned it 68 yards for the game winning TD. Just like that, the Florida St. undefeated bubble had burst and they had lost their first ACC game in 29 starts! With an opportunity for salvation next week against Clemson, it is tough to see how the Sems bounce back big in the face of undefeated letdown. Syracuse suffered their own heartbreak last week, when in consecutive weeks they lost a close game to Pitt. But, behind QB Dungey, who completes 65% of their passes with a 11/3 ratio and with his big target, WR Ishmal, the Orangemen have enough to come in comfortably under this number against a Florida St. team who is just 2-8 ATS laying double digits. Make your UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK PLAY on Syracuse.
