Joe Gavazzi
CFB STEAMROLLER GAME OF THE WEEK
Georgia Southern (-6) at LA Monroe 7:00 ET
Georgia Southern traveled to Moscow, Idaho last week where they demolished the Vandals in the Kibbie Dome by a count of 44-20 as our CFB BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK. The game was not as close as the final score, if you consider the fact that the Eagles won the overland battle 441-111. This is a team who is on a mission. Georgia Southern, a program with multiple national championships in lower classes, was denied a Bowl last season (by an archaic NCAA rule) despite winning the Sun Belt conference and posting a 9-3 SU record. Starting QB Ellison was suspended for Georgia Southern’s first game of the year at WVU. Final score: WVU 44-0 with Ellison’s replacement, Upshaw, completing twice as many passes to the opposing Mounties as to his own Eagles. The next 3 games have seen GS return to their dominating overland form in whipping out same class competition, W. Michigan 43-17, the Citadel 48-13 and Idaho 44-20. Now, they travel again to Monroe, where they will face a team for whom they will have respect. As 14 point home favorite last year, the Eagles won only 22-16, despite a 333-19 overland edge. It is nearly impossible to not cover with that type of overland dominance.
This week, LA Monroe takes the field, after being battered and bruised by Alabama in a 34-0 defeat. Getting off the mat to face this rushing attack is improbable, especially noting that they have lost their 2 best receivers (Turner and Ceaser). With a limited aerial attack and an offense that rushes for just 85/2.7 and a defensive front allowing 4.6 YPR, is there any way they can prevent the highly focused Eagles from yet another STEAMROLLER victory? I don’t think so.
CFB STEAMROLLER GAME OF THE WEEK
Georgia Southern (-6) at LA Monroe 7:00 ET
Georgia Southern traveled to Moscow, Idaho last week where they demolished the Vandals in the Kibbie Dome by a count of 44-20 as our CFB BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK. The game was not as close as the final score, if you consider the fact that the Eagles won the overland battle 441-111. This is a team who is on a mission. Georgia Southern, a program with multiple national championships in lower classes, was denied a Bowl last season (by an archaic NCAA rule) despite winning the Sun Belt conference and posting a 9-3 SU record. Starting QB Ellison was suspended for Georgia Southern’s first game of the year at WVU. Final score: WVU 44-0 with Ellison’s replacement, Upshaw, completing twice as many passes to the opposing Mounties as to his own Eagles. The next 3 games have seen GS return to their dominating overland form in whipping out same class competition, W. Michigan 43-17, the Citadel 48-13 and Idaho 44-20. Now, they travel again to Monroe, where they will face a team for whom they will have respect. As 14 point home favorite last year, the Eagles won only 22-16, despite a 333-19 overland edge. It is nearly impossible to not cover with that type of overland dominance.
This week, LA Monroe takes the field, after being battered and bruised by Alabama in a 34-0 defeat. Getting off the mat to face this rushing attack is improbable, especially noting that they have lost their 2 best receivers (Turner and Ceaser). With a limited aerial attack and an offense that rushes for just 85/2.7 and a defensive front allowing 4.6 YPR, is there any way they can prevent the highly focused Eagles from yet another STEAMROLLER victory? I don’t think so.
Sports Insights
[109] Play on CONN 18 (-108)
[124] Play on KENT -10.5 (-108)
[131] Play on MINN Over 40 (-110)
[135] Play on WVU Over 58 (-108)
[150] Play on TULSA Under 81.5 (-110)
[177] Play on WA-ST Over 70.5 (-110)
[179] Play on SJ-ST Over 54 (-110)
[184] Play on LATEC Under 63 (-108)
[202] Play on UL-MON 6 (-108)
[210] Play on UTEP 3 (+100)
[109] Play on CONN 18 (-108)
[124] Play on KENT -10.5 (-108)
[131] Play on MINN Over 40 (-110)
[135] Play on WVU Over 58 (-108)
[150] Play on TULSA Under 81.5 (-110)
[177] Play on WA-ST Over 70.5 (-110)
[179] Play on SJ-ST Over 54 (-110)
[184] Play on LATEC Under 63 (-108)
[202] Play on UL-MON 6 (-108)
[210] Play on UTEP 3 (+100)
SMART SPORTS INVESTMENTS WINS
[Risked 4 units to win 3.64] Northwestern -3.5 (-110) vs Minnesota U
[Risked 3 units to win 2.31] West Virginia +7 (-130) vs Oklahoma
[Risked 3 units to win 3] Mississippi -7.5 (+100) vs Florida
[Risked 5 units to win 4.55] Kansas State +7.5 (-110) vs Oklahoma State
[Risked 4 units to win 3.2] Clemson -125 vs Notre Dame
[Risked 4 units to win 3.64] Northwestern -3.5 (-110) vs Minnesota U
[Risked 3 units to win 2.31] West Virginia +7 (-130) vs Oklahoma
[Risked 3 units to win 3] Mississippi -7.5 (+100) vs Florida
[Risked 5 units to win 4.55] Kansas State +7.5 (-110) vs Oklahoma State
[Risked 4 units to win 3.2] Clemson -125 vs Notre Dame
From Platinum Plays.
[h=1]500K SEC Lock/Month[/h] the Georgia Bulldogs -2½ over
the Alabama Crimson Tide
Best Bets
the California Golden Bears -18 over
the Washington St Cougars
the Navy Midshipmen -5 over
the Air Force Falcons
the Minnesota Golden Gophers +4 over
the Northwestern Wildcats
the Pittsburgh Panthers +4½ over
the Virginia Tech Hokies
500K ESPN2 Lock/Month
the Arkansas Razorbacks +6½ over
the Tennessee Volunteers
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the Oregon Ducks -7½ over
the Colorado Buffaloes
the Arizona St Sun Devils +14 over
the UCLA Bruins
the Ole Miss Rebels -7 over
the Florida Gators
the Troy Trojans -6½ over
the South Alabama Jaguars
PLATINUM PLAYS PREMIER PICK
the Duke Blue Devils -7 over
the Boston College Eagles
the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -18 over
the UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns
[h=1]500K SEC Lock/Month[/h] the Georgia Bulldogs -2½ over
the Alabama Crimson Tide
Best Bets
the California Golden Bears -18 over
the Washington St Cougars
the Navy Midshipmen -5 over
the Air Force Falcons
the Minnesota Golden Gophers +4 over
the Northwestern Wildcats
the Pittsburgh Panthers +4½ over
the Virginia Tech Hokies
500K ESPN2 Lock/Month
the Arkansas Razorbacks +6½ over
the Tennessee Volunteers
Best Bets
the Oregon Ducks -7½ over
the Colorado Buffaloes
the Arizona St Sun Devils +14 over
the UCLA Bruins
the Ole Miss Rebels -7 over
the Florida Gators
the Troy Trojans -6½ over
the South Alabama Jaguars
PLATINUM PLAYS PREMIER PICK
the Duke Blue Devils -7 over
the Boston College Eagles
the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -18 over
the UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns
WAYNE ROOT
Pinnacle---Colorado (Shocker of the Year)
How does one go from the National spotlight games, to getting it handed to you in front of your home crowd by Utah in losing 62-20? How do you prepare to then regroup and head to the altitude of the Rockies and play a 3-1 Colorado team looking to follow up with what Utah just proved is possible? For the Buffalos, Colorado is licking its chops at the opportunity to exact payback for its recent blowout losses to the Ducks. Colorado has a little head of steam, while Oregon is reeling. The Buffs should have success against a defense that couldn't stop—or sack—Utah on Saturday. Colorado is getting production from the ground troops, and Sefo Liufau to Nelson Spruce is one of the Pac-12’s most dangerous pitch-and-catch combos. Oregon will not turn things around immediately. They have not been asked to do that with these players. They have little idea how to react off that kind of loss as having not been in that position. They are a huge road favorite, in altitude, playing against a boatload of revenge and are asked to win AND win big. Rarely happens like that. Look for this to be a game with the emotions of a major upset or the emotions of "oh so close". TAKE COLORADO
Inner Circle---Arizona State
Saturday the entire nation will get to witness how freshman QB will be able to handle the ferocious pass rush and all out blitzing of the Arizona St Sun Devils. At best, Josh Rosen will be forced to throw short passes as going deep will be remove from the equation. The key to the upset is the Sun Devil's potent pass rush. The top 3 tacklers for a loss in the Pac 12 are all on the Sun Devils side. The Devils can run the ball which bodes well against the Bruins main weakness as they have little in the form of a run defense. The Bruins may relax just a little too much after destroying Arizona on the road last week opening up their conference play. This is a lot of point to be giving a team that can sack you, force a turnover and create backfield havoc to a young frosh quarterback. The Sun Devils defense is set so all that needs to be done is Arizona State's run offense to chew up some yardage and wind down the clock. TAKE ARIZONA STATE
Perfect Play---Florida
Well the good news out of Florida is that Coach Jim McElwain finally decided on a quarterback in Will Grier. He's been their main man but has split time with Treon Harris. This should be a big boost in confidence. Last week,
he was at his best down the stretch against Tennessee, hitting 11 of his final 18 passes for 149 yards and two touchdowns. Grier is the much better passer. Ole Miss (4-0) is still living off the win over Alabama, but a sluggish performance against Vanderbilt means it has to get back on track. This is going to be a fight. Florida is going to get tough and pound the ball, and Grier will come up with a nice game. To pull off the upset, the Gators have to make this an ugly, grinding game with long drives that eat up clock. The Gators have to force mistakes – they have yet to lose the turnover battle this year. Florida's "D" can get to Ole Miss' QB Chad Kelly by way of the best player on the field. Pass rusher Jonathon Bullard of Florida is the man to watch. TAKE FLORIDA
No Limit---Notre Dame
Notre Dame is already 2-0 this year versus ACC opponents, having gotten past Virginia and Georgia Tech after QB Malik Zaire was lost for the season to a fractured ankle. Now the only game circled all year for the Fighting Irish in their quest to go undefeated for the season is this game. Win this and the remainder of the season is possible to do so. But is Clemson for real? They are the favorite to win the ACC. The Tigers have beaten Wofford, Appalachian State and 1-3 Louisville in an overall lackluster effort two weeks ago. Not exactly a statement to the nation. This game will be won at the line of scrimmage with the Fighting Irish on top. The expected heavy rains should quiet the Clemson crowd as the Notre Dame linemen sink in and hold their turf. TAKE NOTRE DAME
Millionaires---Middle Tenn St
This is the battle to see who the 3rd best team in Tennessee is behind Tennessee and Memphis. Vanderbilt will come out on the short end. Mid Tenn is a good team and is set to win the Conf USA this year. Vandy should have a huge letdown Saturday after nearly defeating Ole Miss last week and leaving everything they had on the field. Meanwhile, it's the little brother of Tennessee football eyeing this game to increase their own stature. Vandy averages 14 ppg and Mid Tenn can put up the points as evidenced with two games where they scored over 70. QB Brent Stockstill is a pass throwing machine and has 2 fast, speedy WR in Ed Battles and Richie James. TAKE MID TENN ST
Pinnacle---Colorado (Shocker of the Year)
How does one go from the National spotlight games, to getting it handed to you in front of your home crowd by Utah in losing 62-20? How do you prepare to then regroup and head to the altitude of the Rockies and play a 3-1 Colorado team looking to follow up with what Utah just proved is possible? For the Buffalos, Colorado is licking its chops at the opportunity to exact payback for its recent blowout losses to the Ducks. Colorado has a little head of steam, while Oregon is reeling. The Buffs should have success against a defense that couldn't stop—or sack—Utah on Saturday. Colorado is getting production from the ground troops, and Sefo Liufau to Nelson Spruce is one of the Pac-12’s most dangerous pitch-and-catch combos. Oregon will not turn things around immediately. They have not been asked to do that with these players. They have little idea how to react off that kind of loss as having not been in that position. They are a huge road favorite, in altitude, playing against a boatload of revenge and are asked to win AND win big. Rarely happens like that. Look for this to be a game with the emotions of a major upset or the emotions of "oh so close". TAKE COLORADO
Inner Circle---Arizona State
Saturday the entire nation will get to witness how freshman QB will be able to handle the ferocious pass rush and all out blitzing of the Arizona St Sun Devils. At best, Josh Rosen will be forced to throw short passes as going deep will be remove from the equation. The key to the upset is the Sun Devil's potent pass rush. The top 3 tacklers for a loss in the Pac 12 are all on the Sun Devils side. The Devils can run the ball which bodes well against the Bruins main weakness as they have little in the form of a run defense. The Bruins may relax just a little too much after destroying Arizona on the road last week opening up their conference play. This is a lot of point to be giving a team that can sack you, force a turnover and create backfield havoc to a young frosh quarterback. The Sun Devils defense is set so all that needs to be done is Arizona State's run offense to chew up some yardage and wind down the clock. TAKE ARIZONA STATE
Perfect Play---Florida
Well the good news out of Florida is that Coach Jim McElwain finally decided on a quarterback in Will Grier. He's been their main man but has split time with Treon Harris. This should be a big boost in confidence. Last week,
he was at his best down the stretch against Tennessee, hitting 11 of his final 18 passes for 149 yards and two touchdowns. Grier is the much better passer. Ole Miss (4-0) is still living off the win over Alabama, but a sluggish performance against Vanderbilt means it has to get back on track. This is going to be a fight. Florida is going to get tough and pound the ball, and Grier will come up with a nice game. To pull off the upset, the Gators have to make this an ugly, grinding game with long drives that eat up clock. The Gators have to force mistakes – they have yet to lose the turnover battle this year. Florida's "D" can get to Ole Miss' QB Chad Kelly by way of the best player on the field. Pass rusher Jonathon Bullard of Florida is the man to watch. TAKE FLORIDA
No Limit---Notre Dame
Notre Dame is already 2-0 this year versus ACC opponents, having gotten past Virginia and Georgia Tech after QB Malik Zaire was lost for the season to a fractured ankle. Now the only game circled all year for the Fighting Irish in their quest to go undefeated for the season is this game. Win this and the remainder of the season is possible to do so. But is Clemson for real? They are the favorite to win the ACC. The Tigers have beaten Wofford, Appalachian State and 1-3 Louisville in an overall lackluster effort two weeks ago. Not exactly a statement to the nation. This game will be won at the line of scrimmage with the Fighting Irish on top. The expected heavy rains should quiet the Clemson crowd as the Notre Dame linemen sink in and hold their turf. TAKE NOTRE DAME
Millionaires---Middle Tenn St
This is the battle to see who the 3rd best team in Tennessee is behind Tennessee and Memphis. Vanderbilt will come out on the short end. Mid Tenn is a good team and is set to win the Conf USA this year. Vandy should have a huge letdown Saturday after nearly defeating Ole Miss last week and leaving everything they had on the field. Meanwhile, it's the little brother of Tennessee football eyeing this game to increase their own stature. Vandy averages 14 ppg and Mid Tenn can put up the points as evidenced with two games where they scored over 70. QB Brent Stockstill is a pass throwing machine and has 2 fast, speedy WR in Ed Battles and Richie James. TAKE MID TENN ST
Dr Bob
3* Baylor -15½
3* UNLV +8
3* Appalachian St -23½
2* Houston -6
2* California -16½
2* Troy -6
2* UTSA -3
2* Boston College / Duke Under 39½
1* Tulane +2
1* Houston / Tulsa Over 79½
Strong Opinions
Army +27½
NC State -3½
Illinois +6½
Colorado +7½
Western Kentucky -7
Purdue / Michigan St Under 55
3* Baylor -15½
3* UNLV +8
3* Appalachian St -23½
2* Houston -6
2* California -16½
2* Troy -6
2* UTSA -3
2* Boston College / Duke Under 39½
1* Tulane +2
1* Houston / Tulsa Over 79½
Strong Opinions
Army +27½
NC State -3½
Illinois +6½
Colorado +7½
Western Kentucky -7
Purdue / Michigan St Under 55
StatFox Super Situations
CFL | EDMONTON at WINNIPEG
Play On - Home teams (WINNIPEG) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, with a losing record
67-28 since 1997. ( 70.5% | 36.2 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 3.0 units )
CFL | SASKATCHEWAN at BRITISH COLUMBIA
Play On - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (BRITISH COLUMBIA) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses, when playing on a Saturday
36-12 since 1997. ( 75.0% | 22.8 units )
CFL | EDMONTON at WINNIPEG
Play On - Home teams (WINNIPEG) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, with a losing record
67-28 since 1997. ( 70.5% | 36.2 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 3.0 units )
CFL | SASKATCHEWAN at BRITISH COLUMBIA
Play On - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (BRITISH COLUMBIA) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses, when playing on a Saturday
36-12 since 1997. ( 75.0% | 22.8 units )
StatFox Super Situations
CFB | OHIO U at AKRON
Play Over - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 off a cover where the team lost as an underdog against opponent off an upset win as an underdog
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
CFB | ALABAMA at GEORGIA
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (ALABAMA) with a good rushing D - allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 2 or less rushing yards/attempt last game
54-39 over the last 5 seasons. ( 58.1% | 0.0 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | 0.0 units )
CFB | HAWAII at BOISE ST
Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is between 25 and 28 after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
CFB | TEMPLE at CHARLOTTE
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (TEMPLE) with a good rushing D - allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 2 or less rushing yards/attempt last game
54-39 over the last 5 seasons. ( 58.1% | 0.0 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | 0.0 units )
CFB | OHIO U at AKRON
Play Over - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 off a cover where the team lost as an underdog against opponent off an upset win as an underdog
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
CFB | ALABAMA at GEORGIA
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (ALABAMA) with a good rushing D - allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 2 or less rushing yards/attempt last game
54-39 over the last 5 seasons. ( 58.1% | 0.0 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | 0.0 units )
CFB | HAWAII at BOISE ST
Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is between 25 and 28 after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )
CFB | TEMPLE at CHARLOTTE
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (TEMPLE) with a good rushing D - allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 2 or less rushing yards/attempt last game
54-39 over the last 5 seasons. ( 58.1% | 0.0 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | 0.0 units )
