Larry Ness' 20* Club-80 Play-CFB (3-1 or 75% FB '09)-Sat
My 20* Club-80 Play is on Nevada at 4:00 ET. Idaho joined Div I-A back in 1996 but entered this season without a winning record this decade (23-82, .219 since 2000). In comparison, Nevada had gone to four straight bowl games (2005-2008) while posting a 30-21 mark. Head coach Robb Akey was 3-21 in two seasons at Moscow and when his team opened the 2009 season with a 21-6 win at New Mexico St, it ended the school's 14-game road losing streak. Meanwhile, a fifth straight bowl berth was almost considered a shoo-in for Chris Ault's Nevada team, as many were predicting the school's first-ever 10-win season as a FBS member. Heading into Saturday's game in Reno, Idaho comes in 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS overall while sitting in first-place in the WAC at 3-0. Boise St, the No. 4 team in the season's first BCS standings and solidly the WAC's premier team, has played just one league game (1-0). Everything is different In Idaho this year. Last year's team averaged just 19.6 PPG but this year's team is averaging 29.6 PPG. The running game (led by WSU transfer Woolridge who has 531 YR / 5.8 YPC / 12 TDs) ia averaging 161.0 YPG (4.5 YPC), up from 133 YPG in 2008 (3.8 YPC). QB Enderele is also greatly improved, completing 64.4 percent and averaging 247.9 YPG, up from 54.3 percent and 173.1 YPG last season. The defense is hardly of the "shut-down" variety but after allowing 42.8 PPG and almost 475 YPG in 2008, this year's averages of 25.1 PPG and 364.0 YPG seem almost Florida (8.7 PPG) or Alabama-like (226.6 YPG). Nevada opened by losing 35-0 at Notre Dame and then lost 35-20 at Colorado St (oops!). The Wolf Pack lost 31-21 at home to Missouri on September 25 but one could tell, the team was "getting close!" I'll say. Nevada has won three straight (2-0 in the WAC) since the Missouri loss, beating UNLV 63-28, La Tech 37-14 and winning 35-32 at Utah St. The Wolf Pack lead the nation in rushing (292.8 YPG / 6.8 YPC / 15 TDs), after rushing for an almost unheard of average of 405.7 YPG (8.0 YPC) in their three-game winning streak. Idaho ranks No. 14 in rush D ((95.6 YPG / 3.4 YPC) but the Vandals haven't seen anything like what they'll experience at Mackay Stadium on Saturday. Nevada's trio of QB Kaepernick plus RBs Lippincott and Taua is really special. Idaho is 7-0 ATS in 2009 and 10-1 ATS going back to last year's final four games but on second thought, the Vandals may not be surprised by what they see on Saturday. Plus, they may not be able to do anything about it. Nevada has won the last four meetings between these two schools (1-3 ATS) since they renewed the series as WAC foes. The final scores have been 62-14, 45-7, 37-21 and 49-14. I realize Idaho is 4-0 ATS this year as an away underdog but remember the Vandals did lose 42-23 at Washington and entered this year an 11-22-1 ATS run as an away dog. The Vandals have had a near-perfect season so far but reality is about to catch up to them. Nevada (2-0 in the WAC) can take over first-place with a win and could very easily be on an eight-game winning streak when it heads to the "Blue Turf" of Boise on November 27. No one has been a better 'bully' than Chris Ault, as the veteran coach has gone an amazing 17-3, that's 85% ATS as a home favorite since returning to Reno in 2004. With all the fundamental advantages as well, that gives me a 20* Club-80 Play on Nevada.