Dave Malinsky (comp)
4* #120 MICHIGAN STATE/ILLINOIS Under
There is a lot of “old school” going on in this one, on both sides of the ball, and that means neither the offensive efficiency, or the pace, to get this scoreboard into the 50’s. It suits both coaches fine, and therefore us as well.
Illinois has gone 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season, and the formula is easy to see – Ron Zook has focused on slowing the pace (131 runs vs. 66 passes in those games), and utilizing the new schemes of Vic Koenning that have greatly improved a defense that was such a disappointment LY. Of course slowing the pace on offense is also by necessity – while QB Nathan Scheelhaase is mobile, he brings neither accuracy down the field or experience, and the WR corps lacks depth (Jarred Fayson and A. J. Jenkins have 39 of the 58 receptions). The longest pass completion in a lined game has been for just 34 yards. But with Scheelhaase and Mikel Leshoure (606 yards at 5.8 per carry) working the clock overland, they can play a battle for field position. When combined with the defensive improvements it has led to the opposition having their season low of total offense in all three of those underdog covers, and they are up to 20th nationally in total defense, and 21st in scoring defense. If anything, staying in the hunt into the 4th quarter vs. Ohio State two weeks ago, and then dominating Penn State last week, brings even more of a focus on playing at that pace (only 245 offensive snaps in the two games combined).
Michigan State will be well-prepared to face a running QB, after having to deal with Denard Robinson last week, and there is little fear of Illinois making big plays (the Illini do not have a TD of 40 yards or more against a lined opponent). But nothing comes easily for the Spartans either – they are at their best when attacking the middle overland, setting up play action passes for Kirk Cousins down the field, and that goes directly into the strength of the Illinois defense, DT Corey Liuget, MLB Martez Wilson, and S’s Trulon Henry and Tavon Wilson. With DE Clay Nurse providing a pass rush on the outside, and with CB Terry Hawthorne now ready for full-time action after returning against Penn State, this defense can stand toe-to-toe on this field, which means few long drives, and also FG’s instead of TD’s when State does reach the scoring zone (nothing new - they had to kick four in those Big 10 wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State the past two weeks, all coming after the offense had gotten inside the 25-yard line).