Service Plays Saturday 10/03/09

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Mr A's

Saturday, October 3rd, 2009 12:00 PM EST.
(6) Virginia Tech Hokies (3-1) at Duke Blue Devils (2-2)
Wallace Wade Stadium - Durham, North Carolina
Virginia Tech has won the last eight games against Duke and is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games on the road.
Oddsmakers: Virginia Tech as a -17 point road favorite with the total listed at 47 'over'.
Virginia Tech Hokies -17


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Saturday, October 3rd, 2009 1:00 PM EST.

(10) Cincinnati Bearcats (4-0) at Miami-Ohio Redhawks (0-4)
Yager Stadium - Oxford, Ohio
Cincinnati has won and covered the spread in the last three meetings. Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games, 1-4 ATS in its last 5 at home.
Oddsmakers: Cincinnati as a -29½ point road favorite with the total listed at 59 'over'.
Cincinnati Bearcats -29½


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Saturday, October 3rd, 2009 3:30 PM EST.
(4) L-S-U Tigers (4-0) at (18) Georgia Bulldogs (3-1)
Sanford Stadium - Athens, Georgia
Expect a close battle. Georgia has won the last three meetings and the home team in this series is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Oddsmakers: Georgia as a -3½ point home favorite with the total listed at 50 'over'.
Georgia Bulldogs - 3½
 
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Evan Altemus

Arkansas State vs. Iowa
Play: Arkansas State

Iowa is coming off of a huge win at Penn State on national television. Now they have to play an Arkansas State team that the Hawkeyes will likely not be excited to face, especially before continuing Big Ten play next week. Iowa now is being asked to win by over three touchdowns with an offense that isn’t known for its explosiveness. They also showed that they have the potential for letdown performances with their very close win over Northern Iowa to start the season. Arkansas State has played several games against quality BCS conference teams over the last few years, including this season against Nebraska. They failed to cover the spread in that game by only nine points, but the Cornhuskers have been motivated to run up the score against weaker opponents. Iowa has absolutely no reason to win this game by margin. Their highest offensive production on the season came against Iowa State where they only scored 35 points. Arkansas State just has to score around 10 points to cover this spread. Look for this game to be closer than expected.

4 UNIT SELECTION ARKANSAS STATE.
 
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Dr. Bob (added opinions)

While doing my free analysis I found 2 games that were worthy of a strong opinion status (Ohio +3 and Baylor -21). For those of you that don't know, all other games that are not part of the Best Bets package are analyzed on my website in the free analysis section.



Strong Opinion
Ohio (+3) 23 BOWLING GREEN 20
Ohio looks like a better team than Bowling Green on both sides of the ball, as the Bobcats rate at 0.4 yards per play worse than average offensively (after adjusting for the players that Tennessee's defense was without last week) while Bowling Green is 0.6 yppl worse than average on offense. Bowling Green's defense hasn't been able to stop the run the last two weeks without suspended SS Mahone, who led the team with 21 tackles in the first 2 games. The Falcons have allowed 7.3 yards per rushing play to Marshall and 8.2 yprp to Boise the last two weeks without Mahone. Bowling Green is 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively for the season and worse than that without Mahone. Ohio, meanwhile, is 0.5 yppl better than average defensively, allowing just 4.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. We have the better team getting points and I'll consider Ohio a Strong Opinion at +3 or more.

Strong Opinion
BAYLOR (-21) 37 Kent 10
Baylor will be without star quarterback Robert Griffin, who is out for the season, but Blake Szymanski was a starter in 2007 and may not be that bad. Even if Szymanski plays like he did that season (just 5.6 yards per pass play and 18 interceptions) the Bears should still be good enough to beat Kent by more than 3 touchdowns. Baylor's collection of dangerous running backs, most notably Jay Finley (212 yards at 9.6 ypr), are averaging a combined 8.5 ypr and that includes averaging 8.4 ypr against the good run defenses of Wake Forest and U Conn. Baylor also has a very good defense that allowed just 4.5 yppl to Wake and Connecticut and they should have no trouble shutting down a bad Kent offense that has averaged just 4.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. Kent was limited to just 179 yards at 2.7 yppl by Boston College, the only other good defense they faced. Kent's defense is not quite as bad as their offense but the Flashes are 0.5 yppl worse than average on the stop side of the ball, allowing 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average only 4.6 yppl against an average defense. I'll consider Baylor a Strong Opinion at -21 or less.
 
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Benjamin lee Eckstein

Ben lee lost on Friday with the Padres -$130/Giants.

For Saturday "Mr Chalk" likes Los Bravos -$220/Nat's.

"Mr Chalk" is 2-1 + $70 for the week and 83-68 -$2920 for the MLB season.
 

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Big Al

3* Kentucky (SEC Shocker of Year 100% 11-0 ATS system)
3* Air Force (Rivalry GOM.....28-4 ATS Angle!)

OP* California (NCAA RoadKill...100%ATS)
OP* Syracuse (High Noon Hanging)
OP* Texas El Paso
 

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Teddy Covers

Northwestern +8 (115)
Virginia +13 (123)
Miami (FL) +7.5 (152)
Western Michigan +6.5 (157)
Iowa State -2.5 (166)

20* Big Ticket: Arkansas -1 (183)
 

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S Florida, you can't hold the ball for one minute and let syracuse score a touchdown. so frustrating
 

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LENNY DEL GENIO
25 Non-Conference Game of the Year - Arkansas Razorbacks

EXECUTIVE
600% Oregon St +5.5
300% Tennessee -2.5
300% Colorado St -4

i didn't remember if these were posted, if a dup,sorry
 

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