MTI Sports
5-Star New Orleans +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA - The Eagles have been terrible when hosting a team that does not run the ball much. Philadelphia is 0-12 ATS at home vs a team that has averaged 25 or fewer rushes per game season-to-date. The SDQL text is:
team=Eagles and H and oA(rushes)<=25 and date>=20101003
Note that they were 0-4 ATS in this spot THIS season.
Also, the Eagles are 0-14 ATS at home the week after a game in which they passed for fewer than 350 yards and Riley Cooper did not have a 24-plus yard reception. The SDQL text here is:
H and Eagles:Riley Cooper
:longest reception<24 and p
Y<350 and NB and date>=20110101
Note that they have lost each of their last six straight up in this spot.
The Saints' offense is ranked fourth in the league for fewest turnovers this season. This is another poor spot for Philadelphia, as they are 0-10 ATS since the start of the 2011 season when hosting a team that has averaged fewer than 1.35 turnovers per game season-to-date. Check it out using this SDQL text:
team=Eagles and H and oA(TO)<1.35 and season>=2011
They were in just this spot three times this season and they lost all three as a favorite.
We had the Eagles over 7.5 wins for the season and we had LeSean McCoy to win the rushing title at +1800. However, the reason was their weak schedule, not because they were a great team. The Saints outplayed the Patriots in New England and the Panthers in Carolina, but lost both games. Philadelphia played four playoff teams this season - they lost as a home favorite to the Chargers, lost as a home favorite to the Chiefs and were hammered 52-20 by the Broncos. The did beat the Packers, but Green Bay was without Aaron Rogers.
The NFC East was a very weak division - especially on defense. The Redskins were ranked #32 of 32 teams in yards allowed per opponent's pass attempt in 2013. The Cowboys were ranked #32 of 32 teams in total yards allowed this season. It's no wonder that the Eagles' offensive numbers look good as they got each of these teams twice during the regular season. The Eagles also faced the Bears (#30 in total yards allowed) and the Vikings (#31 in total yards allowed). So, the Eagles got to face the three worst defenses in the league and they got the Cowboys twice.
Did the Eagles get to face the team ranked #29 of 32 teams in total yards allowed in 2013? No, because THEY are ranked #29.
Philadelphia started the season 2-5 and needed a huge run to get to the playoffs, including an emotional 24-22 win over the Cowboys in Dallas in the season finale. The Saints started 5-0 and ended the season with a romp over the Bucs. The Saints belong in the playoffs and the Eagles know they were fortunate to get there.
The Saints have so many offensive weapons. They have a raft of excellent receivers and they have running backs that can catch the ball, although Pierre Thomas only had one reception for three yards in their win over the Bucs. This is actually a positive indicator, as the Saints are 8-0 ATS after a home win in which Pierre Thomas had fewer than three receptions. Check it out with this SDQL text:
Saintsierre Thomas
:receptions<3 and p:HW and date>=20110925
I'll take Sean Payton over Chip Kelly and I'll take Drew Brees over Nick Foles. The Saints should be able to expose the Eagles as a team that is not a real contender. Grab the 2.5 points.
MTi's FORECAST: New Orleans 31 PHILADELPHIA 17
5-Star New Orleans +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA - The Eagles have been terrible when hosting a team that does not run the ball much. Philadelphia is 0-12 ATS at home vs a team that has averaged 25 or fewer rushes per game season-to-date. The SDQL text is:
team=Eagles and H and oA(rushes)<=25 and date>=20101003
Note that they were 0-4 ATS in this spot THIS season.
Also, the Eagles are 0-14 ATS at home the week after a game in which they passed for fewer than 350 yards and Riley Cooper did not have a 24-plus yard reception. The SDQL text here is:
H and Eagles:Riley Cooper
Y<350 and NB and date>=20110101Note that they have lost each of their last six straight up in this spot.
The Saints' offense is ranked fourth in the league for fewest turnovers this season. This is another poor spot for Philadelphia, as they are 0-10 ATS since the start of the 2011 season when hosting a team that has averaged fewer than 1.35 turnovers per game season-to-date. Check it out using this SDQL text:
team=Eagles and H and oA(TO)<1.35 and season>=2011
They were in just this spot three times this season and they lost all three as a favorite.
We had the Eagles over 7.5 wins for the season and we had LeSean McCoy to win the rushing title at +1800. However, the reason was their weak schedule, not because they were a great team. The Saints outplayed the Patriots in New England and the Panthers in Carolina, but lost both games. Philadelphia played four playoff teams this season - they lost as a home favorite to the Chargers, lost as a home favorite to the Chiefs and were hammered 52-20 by the Broncos. The did beat the Packers, but Green Bay was without Aaron Rogers.
The NFC East was a very weak division - especially on defense. The Redskins were ranked #32 of 32 teams in yards allowed per opponent's pass attempt in 2013. The Cowboys were ranked #32 of 32 teams in total yards allowed this season. It's no wonder that the Eagles' offensive numbers look good as they got each of these teams twice during the regular season. The Eagles also faced the Bears (#30 in total yards allowed) and the Vikings (#31 in total yards allowed). So, the Eagles got to face the three worst defenses in the league and they got the Cowboys twice.
Did the Eagles get to face the team ranked #29 of 32 teams in total yards allowed in 2013? No, because THEY are ranked #29.
Philadelphia started the season 2-5 and needed a huge run to get to the playoffs, including an emotional 24-22 win over the Cowboys in Dallas in the season finale. The Saints started 5-0 and ended the season with a romp over the Bucs. The Saints belong in the playoffs and the Eagles know they were fortunate to get there.
The Saints have so many offensive weapons. They have a raft of excellent receivers and they have running backs that can catch the ball, although Pierre Thomas only had one reception for three yards in their win over the Bucs. This is actually a positive indicator, as the Saints are 8-0 ATS after a home win in which Pierre Thomas had fewer than three receptions. Check it out with this SDQL text:
Saints
ierre Thomas
I'll take Sean Payton over Chip Kelly and I'll take Drew Brees over Nick Foles. The Saints should be able to expose the Eagles as a team that is not a real contender. Grab the 2.5 points.
MTi's FORECAST: New Orleans 31 PHILADELPHIA 17
MTI Sports
3-Star Kansas City at Indianapolis UNDER 47
These two teams met two weeks ago with the Colts winning 23-7after trailing 7-0 at the end of the first quarter. The Chiefs suffered a 4-0 turnover margin and converted a total of one first down the entire game. We expect the Chiefs to feature their defense and their running game here and we expect the Colts to adopt a conservative approach and wait for the Chiefs to make the first mistake.
We have a decent league-wide system for which the Chiefs qualify. NFL teams are 0-13 OU when seeking same-season revenge for a TD-plus loss in which they committed at least three turnovers, had less than 31:20 of possession time and fewer than 400 yards of total offense. The SDQL text is:
P:margin<=-7 and 3<=P:TO and P:season=season and P:TOP<1880 and P:TY<400 and date>=20121201
Teams in this situation have stayed under by an average of 12.8 ppg. It makes sense that teams would be cautious in this spot.
The Chiefs themselves are The Chiefs are 0-6 OU (-6.75 ppg) versus any team with the same record after playing on the road. A fresh Jamaal Charles should also make this a low scoring game, as the Chiefs are 0-12 OU the week after a loss in which Jamaal Charles did not rush the ball ten-plus times, as long as they have three-plus days rest. The SDQL text is:
Chiefs:Jamaal Charles
:rushes<10 and NB and p:L and rest>3 and date>=20091018
The Chiefs have stayed under by an average of 12.6 ppg in this spot.
The Colts have allowed 3, 7 and 10 points in their last three games, respectively. In their 30-10 win over the Jaguars to close out the season, Ryan Luck completed passes to ELEVEN different receivers and T. Y. Hilton caught eleven passes including a 41-yarder. This points to the UNDER, as the Colts are 0-9 OU (-10.9 ppg) after a home win in which a receiver had a reception of 40+ yards. The SDQL text is:
team=Colts and max
:longest reception>=40 and p:HW and date>=20090101
Whenever we investigate trends like these we always look at the "other side" to see if there is a dichotomy. In this case there is, which makes the trend more likely to be a reliable performance indicator. The Colts are 9-1 OU after a home win in which their longest reception was 28 yards or fewer.
All we need to cash this one is for the defense and special teams to stay out of the end zone and good defense in the red zone.
MTi's FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 23 Kansas City 20
3-Star Kansas City at Indianapolis UNDER 47
These two teams met two weeks ago with the Colts winning 23-7after trailing 7-0 at the end of the first quarter. The Chiefs suffered a 4-0 turnover margin and converted a total of one first down the entire game. We expect the Chiefs to feature their defense and their running game here and we expect the Colts to adopt a conservative approach and wait for the Chiefs to make the first mistake.
We have a decent league-wide system for which the Chiefs qualify. NFL teams are 0-13 OU when seeking same-season revenge for a TD-plus loss in which they committed at least three turnovers, had less than 31:20 of possession time and fewer than 400 yards of total offense. The SDQL text is:
P:margin<=-7 and 3<=P:TO and P:season=season and P:TOP<1880 and P:TY<400 and date>=20121201
Teams in this situation have stayed under by an average of 12.8 ppg. It makes sense that teams would be cautious in this spot.
The Chiefs themselves are The Chiefs are 0-6 OU (-6.75 ppg) versus any team with the same record after playing on the road. A fresh Jamaal Charles should also make this a low scoring game, as the Chiefs are 0-12 OU the week after a loss in which Jamaal Charles did not rush the ball ten-plus times, as long as they have three-plus days rest. The SDQL text is:
Chiefs:Jamaal Charles
The Chiefs have stayed under by an average of 12.6 ppg in this spot.
The Colts have allowed 3, 7 and 10 points in their last three games, respectively. In their 30-10 win over the Jaguars to close out the season, Ryan Luck completed passes to ELEVEN different receivers and T. Y. Hilton caught eleven passes including a 41-yarder. This points to the UNDER, as the Colts are 0-9 OU (-10.9 ppg) after a home win in which a receiver had a reception of 40+ yards. The SDQL text is:
team=Colts and max
Whenever we investigate trends like these we always look at the "other side" to see if there is a dichotomy. In this case there is, which makes the trend more likely to be a reliable performance indicator. The Colts are 9-1 OU after a home win in which their longest reception was 28 yards or fewer.
All we need to cash this one is for the defense and special teams to stay out of the end zone and good defense in the red zone.
MTi's FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 23 Kansas City 20
Prediction Machine
Saturday, January 4 at 4:35 PM ET: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 @ Indianapolis Colts (Covers 54.3%), OVER 46.5 (Covers 52.4%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Light
The Vitals:
Projected Score: Kansas City 23.8 - Indianapolis 24.3
SU Pick and Win%: Indianapolis wins 51.7%
Playoffs - Wildcard SU Confidence Rank: #4
ATS Pick and Win%: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 covers 54.3%
Playoffs - Wildcard ATS Confidence Rank: #2
ATS Wager for $50 player: $20
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (46.5) 52.4%
Playoffs - Wildcard O/U Confidence Rank: #3
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0
Injuries to Watch: Tamba Hali/Justin Houston, OLBs, Kansas City Chiefs - While it is impossible to put much stock into what Kansas City did in Week 17, it appears as though the team has done everything it can to get Hali and Houston as fresh and healthy as possible heading into the playoffs. With both star outside linebackers hobbled throughout the second half of the season, the Chiefs defense noticeably diminished down the stretch. This was actually more apparent against the run than the pass, and the competition was certainly tougher late in the year, but beating a below average offensive line to put pressure on Andrew Luck will be important to the Chiefs remaining competitive in this game. Also of note are the health of Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe and Colts cornerback Greg Toler.
Anticipated Line Movement: Three of the four Wild Card weekend games have 2.5 point spreads, including both home teams on Saturday favored by just under a field goal. Neither line has budged all week (not even the juice), so do not expect much to change with this spread as we get closer to the game. Of the three games with 2.5 point spreads, action is most evenly distributed in this game.
The Breakdown: We have tended to fade both of these teams throughout the season. Neither is as good as its best win nor as bad as its worst loss. The rankings above note how each team compares to the other seven teams playing this weekend. Of the Wild Card teams, the Colts are essentially average to below average in everything except for pass offense where they rank as the least efficient team. This is a strong reflection of where this offense has gone since Reggie Wayne's injury. Since Wayne went down against Denver, Luck has completed less than 60% of his passes (59.8%) for just 6.4 yards-per-pass (despite playing Tennessee, Houston and Jacksonville a total of five times in that stretch - against teams with above average defenses in those games, Luck is just 112-of-194, 57.7%, for 1,181 yards, 6.1 yards-per-pass). Kansas City should be as healthy as they have been in two months and appears to actually win every individual matchup. Though playing on the road, the Chiefs figure to fare well with explosive players on both sides of the field getting to play inside on turf. Look for an evenly matched game that's a toss-up straight-up. Value is in the underdog.
Boxscore: Boxscore
KC @ IND NO @ PHI SD @ CIN SF @ GB
Saturday, January 4 at 8:10 PM ET:
New Orleans Saints +2.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles (Covers 51.8%), OVER 53.5 (Covers 58.9%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Normal
The Vitals:
Projected Score: New Orleans 29.4 - Philadelphia 31.1
SU Pick and Win%: Philadelphia wins 53.7%
Playoffs - Wildcard SU Confidence Rank: #3
ATS Pick and Win%: New Orleans Saints +2.5 covers 51.8%
Playoffs - Wildcard ATS Confidence Rank: #4
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (53.5) 58.9%
Playoffs - Wildcard O/U Confidence Rank: #2
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $68
Injuries to Watch: Earl Wolff, S, Philadelphia Eagles - These two teams are incredibly healthy at this point in the season. Wolff is the only real question mark in this game. As of Wednesday, he has not practiced this week after re-aggravating a knee injury that cost him five games this season. Without Wolff in the starting lineup, more pressure will be put on slot corner Brandon Boykin, safety starter Pat Chung and cover linebacker Mychal Kendricks to keep tight end Jimmy Graham and running backs Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas in check on passing plays. Wolff would not have been able to stop those guys on his own, but the task is even more daunting with the Eagles likely down a man.
Anticipated Line Movement: After watching a poor performance by the Eagles in a narrow victory over the Tony Romo-less Cowboys, the public seems to like New Orleans in this game. Enough squares and sharps are playing against the Saints given their road woes to keep this line from moving off of the Eagles -2.5. The general public lean on New Orleans means this line is unlikely to shift to Philadelphia -3. No other line movement will have much of an impact on our pick.
The Breakdown: This is the lightest play that we have ever published in an NFL Playoff game and it's technically only worth $3 to a normal $50 player. To put that another way, if $50 is 1% of bankroll (our suggested "normal" play), we recommend putting just 0.06% on New Orleans +2.5. In our Power Rankings, the Eagles are actually the slightly better overall team and are playing at home. While that may sound like a lean on Philadelphia to leverage home field advantage and win by more than a field goal, the matchup keeps this game a little closer than that. The Eagles are much better against the run than the pass, which keeps the pass heavy, Drew Brees-led Saints in what appears to be a very close game. With the total, which is a strong opinion for us OVER 53.5, it's worth noting that weather should not be much of a factor in this contest. The temperature may only be 25 degrees, but no wind or precipitation is expected. Also, while the Saints should be able to put up points against an Eagles defense that struggles against the pass, the Saints are much worse against the run than the pass and running the ball is Philadelphia's specialty. Look for a shootout in a close game.
Boxscore: Boxscore
KC @ IND NO @ PHI SD @ CIN SF @ GB
Sunday, January 5 at 1:05 PM ET:
San Diego Chargers +7 @ Cincinnati Bengals (Covers 54.3%), OVER 47 (Covers 51.0%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Not Playable
The Vitals:
Projected Score: San Diego 21.1 - Cincinnati 26.5
SU Pick and Win%: Cincinnati wins 64.1%
Playoffs - Wildcard SU Confidence Rank: #1
ATS Pick and Win%: San Diego Chargers +7 covers 54.3%
Playoffs - Wildcard ATS Confidence Rank: #3
ATS Wager for $50 player: $20
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (47) 51.0%
Playoffs - Wildcard O/U Confidence Rank: #4
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0
Injuries to Watch: Terence Newman, CB, Cincinnati Bengals - We have been talking about Newman in this spot for Bengals' games for three weeks, but this game may be where his knee injury causes the most problems for Cincinnati's pass defense. Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers have a top three passing offense in the league. Cincinnati has a top three pass defense. That matchup will be key to the Chargers keeping this game within a touchdown and any advantage they can exploit could swing the pick further in San Diego's favor.
Anticipated Line Movement: We have seen this spread at Cincinnati -6.5, -7 and -7.5. Getting San Diego +7.5 would be ideal, but it appears as though the line is settling in at Chargers +7. With weather (potentially two inches of snow overnight on Saturday), health and a general distrust of the Bengals (particularly quarterback Andy Dalton who threw four interceptions last week) all factors in the public's take on this game, it seems more likely that this game closes at San Diego +6.5 than +7.5, so grab +7 now if it is available.
The Breakdown: Facing the worst pass and run defense in the playoffs, Cincinnati should continue its offensive dominance at home over San Diego this week. Whether the Chargers can keep the game within a touchdown will likely come down to the Chargers' ability to move the ball on the Bengals through the air. With winds not expected to be a factor and the Bengals hurting at every level on the defense right now, Rivers and the Chargers look to be able to hang with Cincinnati in a great offensive matchup.
Boxscore: Boxscore
KC @ IND NO @ PHI SD @ CIN SF @ GB
Sunday, January 5 at 4:40 PM ET:
San Francisco 49ers -2.5 @ Green Bay Packers (Covers 57.6%), OVER 48 (Covers 59.5%)
ATS Play Type: Normal
O/U Play Type: Normal
The Vitals:
Projected Score: San Francisco 30.2 - Green Bay 24.4
SU Pick and Win%: San Francisco wins 63.2%
Playoffs - Wildcard SU Confidence Rank: #2
ATS Pick and Win%: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 covers 57.6%
Playoffs - Wildcard ATS Confidence Rank: #1
ATS Wager for $50 player: $55
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (48) 59.5%
Playoffs - Wildcard O/U Confidence Rank: #1
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $75
Injuries to Watch: Clay Matthews, OLB, Green Bay Packers - Matthews has already been ruled out of this game due to a broken thumb. The Packers had a tough enough time keeping Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers in check with Matthews on the field, especially on the outside at the second level where Matthews absence should be most obvious in this game. The Packers are also down their best cover corner from last season (Casey Hayward), their starting tight end (Jermichael Finley) and potentially a total of eight defensive players who entered the season as expected starters.
Anticipated Line Movement: The consensus spread on this game at Wednesday at 8 pm ET is San Francisco -2.5. Some books have it as -3 and several of the books at -2.5 have added juice to the 49ers. Squares and sharps are somewhat torn between backing a potentially dominant team in the 49ers that has had the Packers' number as of late or getting points with Aaron Rodgers at home. To the Predictalator, the 49ers edge is clear, but, hopefully, enough action supports the Packers as home dogs to keep this line from moving more in the 49ers favor across the board. Give 2.5 points with San Francisco if possible, but, since we have this as closer to a touchdown game than a field goal margin, -3 is not bad either.
The Breakdown: Very little of what the Green Bay Packers have done offensively without Aaron Rodgers this season matters in our numbers. This certainly helps Green Bay's chances to win the game in our analysis. However, there are two things working against the Packers: 1) Green Bay's defense is well below average and not getting better and 2) as much as Green Bay's expectations improve with Aaron Rodgers on the field, Colin Kaepernick's numbers in the passing game get better with a full complement of weapons on the field, most notably wide receivers Michael Crabtree and Quinton Patton, who missed most of the season with injuries. The 49ers played the toughest schedule of any Wild Card team, yet rank among the top ten in the entire league in ALL of our efficiency metrics. The only other team in the league that can say that is the Seattle Seahawks (there are not even any other teams above average in all of our efficiency metrics). Aaron Rodgers may make this game interesting and competitive, but the Packers' defense should ultimately give way to big day from the 49ers offense in a victory.
Play analyzer with current lines 50 dollar base unit
Saturday, January 4 at 4:35 PM ET: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 @ Indianapolis Colts (Covers 54.3%), OVER 46.5 (Covers 52.4%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Light
The Vitals:
Projected Score: Kansas City 23.8 - Indianapolis 24.3
SU Pick and Win%: Indianapolis wins 51.7%
Playoffs - Wildcard SU Confidence Rank: #4
ATS Pick and Win%: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 covers 54.3%
Playoffs - Wildcard ATS Confidence Rank: #2
ATS Wager for $50 player: $20
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (46.5) 52.4%
Playoffs - Wildcard O/U Confidence Rank: #3
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0
| The Teams: | KC | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Straight-Up Record | 11-5 | 11-5 |
| Against-the-Spread Record | 9-7 | 9-6 |
| Over/Under Record | 7-9 | 8-8 |
| Avg. Points For vs. Against | 26.9-19.1 | 24.4-21.0 |
| Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) | #5 | #3 |
| PM Passing Efficiency Rank | #7 | #8 |
| PM Rushing Efficiency Rank | #2 | #5 |
| PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank | #4 | #5 |
| PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank | #5 | #4 |
| Actual Pass/Run Ratio | 57.0%/43.0% | #60.0%/40.0% |
| Turnover Margin | +18 | +13 |
Anticipated Line Movement: Three of the four Wild Card weekend games have 2.5 point spreads, including both home teams on Saturday favored by just under a field goal. Neither line has budged all week (not even the juice), so do not expect much to change with this spread as we get closer to the game. Of the three games with 2.5 point spreads, action is most evenly distributed in this game.
The Breakdown: We have tended to fade both of these teams throughout the season. Neither is as good as its best win nor as bad as its worst loss. The rankings above note how each team compares to the other seven teams playing this weekend. Of the Wild Card teams, the Colts are essentially average to below average in everything except for pass offense where they rank as the least efficient team. This is a strong reflection of where this offense has gone since Reggie Wayne's injury. Since Wayne went down against Denver, Luck has completed less than 60% of his passes (59.8%) for just 6.4 yards-per-pass (despite playing Tennessee, Houston and Jacksonville a total of five times in that stretch - against teams with above average defenses in those games, Luck is just 112-of-194, 57.7%, for 1,181 yards, 6.1 yards-per-pass). Kansas City should be as healthy as they have been in two months and appears to actually win every individual matchup. Though playing on the road, the Chiefs figure to fare well with explosive players on both sides of the field getting to play inside on turf. Look for an evenly matched game that's a toss-up straight-up. Value is in the underdog.
Boxscore: Boxscore
KC @ IND NO @ PHI SD @ CIN SF @ GB
Saturday, January 4 at 8:10 PM ET:
New Orleans Saints +2.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles (Covers 51.8%), OVER 53.5 (Covers 58.9%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Normal
The Vitals:
Projected Score: New Orleans 29.4 - Philadelphia 31.1
SU Pick and Win%: Philadelphia wins 53.7%
Playoffs - Wildcard SU Confidence Rank: #3
ATS Pick and Win%: New Orleans Saints +2.5 covers 51.8%
Playoffs - Wildcard ATS Confidence Rank: #4
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (53.5) 58.9%
Playoffs - Wildcard O/U Confidence Rank: #2
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $68
| The Teams: | NO | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Straight-Up Record | 11-5 | 10-6 |
| Against-the-Spread Record | 8-7 | 8-8 |
| Over/Under Record | 6-10 | 8-7 |
| Avg. Points For vs. Against | 25.9-19.0 | 27.6-23.9 |
| Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) | #2 | #7 |
| PM Passing Efficiency Rank | #4 | #1 |
| PM Rushing Efficiency Rank | #7 | #1 |
| PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank | #3 | #6 |
| PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank | #8 | #1 |
| Actual Pass/Run Ratio | 63.8%/36.2% | #52.6%/47.4% |
| Turnover Margin | 0 | +12 |
Anticipated Line Movement: After watching a poor performance by the Eagles in a narrow victory over the Tony Romo-less Cowboys, the public seems to like New Orleans in this game. Enough squares and sharps are playing against the Saints given their road woes to keep this line from moving off of the Eagles -2.5. The general public lean on New Orleans means this line is unlikely to shift to Philadelphia -3. No other line movement will have much of an impact on our pick.
The Breakdown: This is the lightest play that we have ever published in an NFL Playoff game and it's technically only worth $3 to a normal $50 player. To put that another way, if $50 is 1% of bankroll (our suggested "normal" play), we recommend putting just 0.06% on New Orleans +2.5. In our Power Rankings, the Eagles are actually the slightly better overall team and are playing at home. While that may sound like a lean on Philadelphia to leverage home field advantage and win by more than a field goal, the matchup keeps this game a little closer than that. The Eagles are much better against the run than the pass, which keeps the pass heavy, Drew Brees-led Saints in what appears to be a very close game. With the total, which is a strong opinion for us OVER 53.5, it's worth noting that weather should not be much of a factor in this contest. The temperature may only be 25 degrees, but no wind or precipitation is expected. Also, while the Saints should be able to put up points against an Eagles defense that struggles against the pass, the Saints are much worse against the run than the pass and running the ball is Philadelphia's specialty. Look for a shootout in a close game.
Boxscore: Boxscore
KC @ IND NO @ PHI SD @ CIN SF @ GB
Sunday, January 5 at 1:05 PM ET:
San Diego Chargers +7 @ Cincinnati Bengals (Covers 54.3%), OVER 47 (Covers 51.0%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Not Playable
The Vitals:
Projected Score: San Diego 21.1 - Cincinnati 26.5
SU Pick and Win%: Cincinnati wins 64.1%
Playoffs - Wildcard SU Confidence Rank: #1
ATS Pick and Win%: San Diego Chargers +7 covers 54.3%
Playoffs - Wildcard ATS Confidence Rank: #3
ATS Wager for $50 player: $20
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (47) 51.0%
Playoffs - Wildcard O/U Confidence Rank: #4
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0
| The Teams: | SD | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Straight-Up Record | 9-7 | 11-5 |
| Against-the-Spread Record | 9-6 | 10-5 |
| Over/Under Record | 7-9 | 10-6 |
| Avg. Points For vs. Against | 24.8-21.8 | 26.9-19.1 |
| Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) | #4 | #6 |
| PM Passing Efficiency Rank | #2 | #6 |
| PM Rushing Efficiency Rank | #6 | #8 |
| PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank | #8 | #1 |
| PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank | #6 | #3 |
| Actual Pass/Run Ratio | 54.2%/45.8% | #56.2%/43.8% |
| Turnover Margin | -3 | +1 |
Anticipated Line Movement: We have seen this spread at Cincinnati -6.5, -7 and -7.5. Getting San Diego +7.5 would be ideal, but it appears as though the line is settling in at Chargers +7. With weather (potentially two inches of snow overnight on Saturday), health and a general distrust of the Bengals (particularly quarterback Andy Dalton who threw four interceptions last week) all factors in the public's take on this game, it seems more likely that this game closes at San Diego +6.5 than +7.5, so grab +7 now if it is available.
The Breakdown: Facing the worst pass and run defense in the playoffs, Cincinnati should continue its offensive dominance at home over San Diego this week. Whether the Chargers can keep the game within a touchdown will likely come down to the Chargers' ability to move the ball on the Bengals through the air. With winds not expected to be a factor and the Bengals hurting at every level on the defense right now, Rivers and the Chargers look to be able to hang with Cincinnati in a great offensive matchup.
Boxscore: Boxscore
KC @ IND NO @ PHI SD @ CIN SF @ GB
Sunday, January 5 at 4:40 PM ET:
San Francisco 49ers -2.5 @ Green Bay Packers (Covers 57.6%), OVER 48 (Covers 59.5%)
ATS Play Type: Normal
O/U Play Type: Normal
The Vitals:
Projected Score: San Francisco 30.2 - Green Bay 24.4
SU Pick and Win%: San Francisco wins 63.2%
Playoffs - Wildcard SU Confidence Rank: #2
ATS Pick and Win%: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 covers 57.6%
Playoffs - Wildcard ATS Confidence Rank: #1
ATS Wager for $50 player: $55
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (48) 59.5%
Playoffs - Wildcard O/U Confidence Rank: #1
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $75
| The Teams: | SF | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Straight-Up Record | 12-4 | 8-7 |
| Against-the-Spread Record | 10-5 | 6-10 |
| Over/Under Record | 7-8 | 8-7 |
| Avg. Points For vs. Against | 25.4-17.0 | 26.1-26.8 |
| Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) | #1 | #8 |
| PM Passing Efficiency Rank | #3 | #5 |
| PM Rushing Efficiency Rank | #4 | #3 |
| PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank | #2 | #7 |
| PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank | #2 | #7 |
| Actual Pass/Run Ratio | 47.5%/52.5% | #57.3%/42.7% |
| Turnover Margin | +12 | -3 |
Anticipated Line Movement: The consensus spread on this game at Wednesday at 8 pm ET is San Francisco -2.5. Some books have it as -3 and several of the books at -2.5 have added juice to the 49ers. Squares and sharps are somewhat torn between backing a potentially dominant team in the 49ers that has had the Packers' number as of late or getting points with Aaron Rodgers at home. To the Predictalator, the 49ers edge is clear, but, hopefully, enough action supports the Packers as home dogs to keep this line from moving more in the 49ers favor across the board. Give 2.5 points with San Francisco if possible, but, since we have this as closer to a touchdown game than a field goal margin, -3 is not bad either.
The Breakdown: Very little of what the Green Bay Packers have done offensively without Aaron Rodgers this season matters in our numbers. This certainly helps Green Bay's chances to win the game in our analysis. However, there are two things working against the Packers: 1) Green Bay's defense is well below average and not getting better and 2) as much as Green Bay's expectations improve with Aaron Rodgers on the field, Colin Kaepernick's numbers in the passing game get better with a full complement of weapons on the field, most notably wide receivers Michael Crabtree and Quinton Patton, who missed most of the season with injuries. The 49ers played the toughest schedule of any Wild Card team, yet rank among the top ten in the entire league in ALL of our efficiency metrics. The only other team in the league that can say that is the Seattle Seahawks (there are not even any other teams above average in all of our efficiency metrics). Aaron Rodgers may make this game interesting and competitive, but the Packers' defense should ultimately give way to big day from the 49ers offense in a victory.
Play analyzer with current lines 50 dollar base unit
| 107 | 1/5 | 4:40 PM | Over | SF @ GB | 45.5
| -110 | -110 | 63.4
| $116 |
|
| 103 | 1/4 | 8:10 PM | Over | NO @ PHI | 53.5
| -110 | -110 | 59.1 | $71 |
|
| 107 | 1/5 | 4:40 PM | SF | SF @ GB | -2.5
| -110 | -110 | 57.6 | $55 |
|
| 102 | 1/4 | 4:35 PM | IND | KC @ IND
| 1.5
| -110 | -110 | 54.4
| $21
|
|
| 105 | 1/5 | 1:05 PM | SD | SD @ CIN | 7
| -110 | -110 | 54.2 | $19 |
|
| 105 | 1/5 | 1:05 PM | Over | SD @ CIN | 45.5
| -110 | -110 | 53.4
| $11 |
|
| 103 | 1/4 | 8:10 PM | NO | NO @ PHI | 3
| -110 | -110 | 52.8
| $4 |
|
| 101 | 1/4 | 4:35 PM | Over | KC @ IND | 46.5
| -110 | -110 | 52.5 | $1 |
|
