Chiefs and Colts open NFL postseason on Saturday
by Brian Graham
AFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET
Line: Indianapolis -2.5, Total: 46.5
The NFL playoffs get underway Saturday afternoon when the red-hot Colts look for a fourth straight victory (SU and ATS) when they meet the slumping Chiefs for the second time in three weeks.
Since starting the year 9-0 with 12.3 PPG and 327 YPG allowed, Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its past seven games with 27.7 PPG and 420 YPG allowed. On the flip side, Indy’s defense has held opponents to 6.7 PPG and 292 YPG during its three-game win streak, which included a 23-7 romp at K.C. in Week 16, thanks to 110 total yards and two touchdowns from RB Donald Brown. That improved the Colts to 12-2 SU (11-3 ATS) in this series since 1990, which includes a 3-0 playoff mark (SU and ATS). That is part of the Chiefs' dismal 1-9 ATS mark in playoff games since 1992, but they have been an outstanding road team all season at 7-1 ATS (6-2 SU) where they have outscored host teams by nearly two touchdowns (30.6 PPG to 17.9 PPG). Indianapolis is a solid 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS) at Lucas Oil Stadium, despite being outgained 366 YPG to 344 YPG by these eight visitors. But in the past two seasons, the Colts are 9-0 ATS at home when the total is at least 45.5 points. Neither team is dealing with major injuries heading into the postseason with Kansas City OLB Tamba Hali (knee) and WR Dwayne Bowe (concussion) both upgraded to probable. Indianapolis has some concerns on both of its lines, but DE Cory Redding (shoulder), DT Ricky Jean-Francois (foot) and guards Mike McGlynn (elbow) and Joe Reitz (head) all could play on Saturday.
The Chiefs generated 26.9 PPG this season (T-6th in NFL), but the only game in which they did not score at least 17 points was the 23-7 loss to the Colts two weeks ago. In that contest, they rushed the ball very well (155 yards on 7.8 YPC), but QB Alex Smith threw for just 153 yards on 28 attempts (5.5 YPA) with 0 TD, 1 INT and absorbed five sacks. For the season, the K.C. ground game rushed for a strong 129 YPG (10th in NFL) on 4.7 YPC (5th in league), but the air attack managed just 209 passing YPG (T-24th in NFL) on 6.5 yards per pass attempt (27th in league). Smith finished the season with solid numbers of 3,313 passing yards (6.5 YPA), 23 TD, 7 INT, and he has been outstanding in both his career playoff starts. In these two contests (both in 2011 with the 49ers) Smith threw for 495 yards (7.3 YPA), 5 TD and 0 INT. But he has never fared too well indoors, going 6-6 with a 59.8% completion rate, 6.2 YPA, 8 TD and 12 INT in ideal conditions. Smith's best offense has been to get the ball in the hands of RB Jamaal Charles, who racked up 1,980 total yards of offense (132 YPG) this season with 19 touchdowns. In the loss to the Colts in Week 16, he ran for 106 yards and a touchdown on just 13 carries (8.2 YPC) and caught five passes for 38 more yards. His numbers in four career indoor games are excellent too, where he has rushed 53 times for 424 yards (8.0 YPC) and two touchdowns. In his last indoor game at New Orleans in 2012, Charles finished with 233 rushing yards (7.1 YPC) and 55 receiving yards. In addition to Charles, the Chiefs have three capable wide receivers with more than 500 yards this season in Dwayne Bowe (673 rec. yards, 5 TD), Donnie Avery (596 rec. yards, 2 TD) and Dexter McCluster (511 rec. yards, 2 TD). Kansas City's defense started out the year so well thanks to 35 sacks in the first seven games of the season. But injuries to both top pass-rushing OLBs Justin Houston and Tamba Hali were a big reason the club managed just 12 sacks over the final nine contests of 2013. The Chiefs gave up a ton of yards (368 total YPG, 24th in NFL), both through the air (248 YPG, T-25th in league) and on the ground (120 YPG, 22nd in NFL), but still finished the season tied for fifth in the NFL in scoring defense (19.1 PPG). This was due to a stellar third-down defense (34%, 5th in league) and a strong red-zone defense (51% TD rate, 10th in NFL). Kansas City's defense also did a great job in making big plays, forcing 36 turnovers this year, including 24 in its eight road games. However, it will be tough take the football away from the great ball-protecting Colts.
Indianapolis committed just 14 turnovers all season, with only three giveaways in the past seven games combined. But despite this lack of mistakes, the team has been average on offense with 342 total YPG (15th in NFL), 24.4 PPG (T-14th in league), 38% third-down conversions (15th in NFL) and a 56% TD rate in the red zone (14th in league). QB Andrew Luck cut his interception total in half from his rookie year when he threw 18 picks, finishing the season with a 60.2% completion rate for 3,822 yards (6.7 YPA), 23 TD and 9 INT. Although he struggled in his postseason debut last year in Baltimore (28-of-54, 288 yards, 5.3 YPA, 0 TD, 1 INT), Luck was on target against the Chiefs in Week 16, completing 26-of-37 passes (70.3%) for 241 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. Although he misses injured WR Reggie Wayne, Luck has relied mostly on fellow second-year pros WR T.Y. Hilton (1,083 rec. yards, 5 TD) and TE Coby Fleener (608 rec. yards, 4 TD) when he drops back. However, it was rookie WR Griff Whalen who did the most damage against K.C. two weeks ago with seven catches for 80 yards. The offense isn't all based on Luck though, as the Colts have rushed the football effectively this year too with 109 YPG on 4.3 YPC (13th in NFL), including 122 rushing YPG in the past three games. RB Donald Brown (537 rush yards, 6 TD) ran for 79 yards on just 10 carries against the Chiefs, which included a 51-yard TD scamper. His 5.3 YPC average ranks third in the NFL this season, and he has been a welcomed change of pace from disappointing RB Trent Richardson. The No. 3 overall draft pick in 2012 rushed for only 458 yards on 2.9 YPC with 3 TD in his 14 games with Indianapolis this year, and gained just 43 yards on 16 carries (2.7 YPC) versus the Chiefs two weeks ago. The Colts defense has been erratic all season, allowing 33+ points four times, but holding five opponents (including each of the past three) to 10 points or less. The +7 turnover rate over the past three contests has been a key to the win streak, but a poor run defense has to be concerned with Jamaal Charles. For the season, Indy ranks 26th in the NFL in rushing defense (125 YPG) and 25th with 4.5 YPC allowed. The squad is also subpar in the red zone, allowing a hefty 59% TD rate (20th in NFL).
by Brian Graham
AFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET
Line: Indianapolis -2.5, Total: 46.5
The NFL playoffs get underway Saturday afternoon when the red-hot Colts look for a fourth straight victory (SU and ATS) when they meet the slumping Chiefs for the second time in three weeks.
Since starting the year 9-0 with 12.3 PPG and 327 YPG allowed, Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its past seven games with 27.7 PPG and 420 YPG allowed. On the flip side, Indy’s defense has held opponents to 6.7 PPG and 292 YPG during its three-game win streak, which included a 23-7 romp at K.C. in Week 16, thanks to 110 total yards and two touchdowns from RB Donald Brown. That improved the Colts to 12-2 SU (11-3 ATS) in this series since 1990, which includes a 3-0 playoff mark (SU and ATS). That is part of the Chiefs' dismal 1-9 ATS mark in playoff games since 1992, but they have been an outstanding road team all season at 7-1 ATS (6-2 SU) where they have outscored host teams by nearly two touchdowns (30.6 PPG to 17.9 PPG). Indianapolis is a solid 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS) at Lucas Oil Stadium, despite being outgained 366 YPG to 344 YPG by these eight visitors. But in the past two seasons, the Colts are 9-0 ATS at home when the total is at least 45.5 points. Neither team is dealing with major injuries heading into the postseason with Kansas City OLB Tamba Hali (knee) and WR Dwayne Bowe (concussion) both upgraded to probable. Indianapolis has some concerns on both of its lines, but DE Cory Redding (shoulder), DT Ricky Jean-Francois (foot) and guards Mike McGlynn (elbow) and Joe Reitz (head) all could play on Saturday.
The Chiefs generated 26.9 PPG this season (T-6th in NFL), but the only game in which they did not score at least 17 points was the 23-7 loss to the Colts two weeks ago. In that contest, they rushed the ball very well (155 yards on 7.8 YPC), but QB Alex Smith threw for just 153 yards on 28 attempts (5.5 YPA) with 0 TD, 1 INT and absorbed five sacks. For the season, the K.C. ground game rushed for a strong 129 YPG (10th in NFL) on 4.7 YPC (5th in league), but the air attack managed just 209 passing YPG (T-24th in NFL) on 6.5 yards per pass attempt (27th in league). Smith finished the season with solid numbers of 3,313 passing yards (6.5 YPA), 23 TD, 7 INT, and he has been outstanding in both his career playoff starts. In these two contests (both in 2011 with the 49ers) Smith threw for 495 yards (7.3 YPA), 5 TD and 0 INT. But he has never fared too well indoors, going 6-6 with a 59.8% completion rate, 6.2 YPA, 8 TD and 12 INT in ideal conditions. Smith's best offense has been to get the ball in the hands of RB Jamaal Charles, who racked up 1,980 total yards of offense (132 YPG) this season with 19 touchdowns. In the loss to the Colts in Week 16, he ran for 106 yards and a touchdown on just 13 carries (8.2 YPC) and caught five passes for 38 more yards. His numbers in four career indoor games are excellent too, where he has rushed 53 times for 424 yards (8.0 YPC) and two touchdowns. In his last indoor game at New Orleans in 2012, Charles finished with 233 rushing yards (7.1 YPC) and 55 receiving yards. In addition to Charles, the Chiefs have three capable wide receivers with more than 500 yards this season in Dwayne Bowe (673 rec. yards, 5 TD), Donnie Avery (596 rec. yards, 2 TD) and Dexter McCluster (511 rec. yards, 2 TD). Kansas City's defense started out the year so well thanks to 35 sacks in the first seven games of the season. But injuries to both top pass-rushing OLBs Justin Houston and Tamba Hali were a big reason the club managed just 12 sacks over the final nine contests of 2013. The Chiefs gave up a ton of yards (368 total YPG, 24th in NFL), both through the air (248 YPG, T-25th in league) and on the ground (120 YPG, 22nd in NFL), but still finished the season tied for fifth in the NFL in scoring defense (19.1 PPG). This was due to a stellar third-down defense (34%, 5th in league) and a strong red-zone defense (51% TD rate, 10th in NFL). Kansas City's defense also did a great job in making big plays, forcing 36 turnovers this year, including 24 in its eight road games. However, it will be tough take the football away from the great ball-protecting Colts.
Indianapolis committed just 14 turnovers all season, with only three giveaways in the past seven games combined. But despite this lack of mistakes, the team has been average on offense with 342 total YPG (15th in NFL), 24.4 PPG (T-14th in league), 38% third-down conversions (15th in NFL) and a 56% TD rate in the red zone (14th in league). QB Andrew Luck cut his interception total in half from his rookie year when he threw 18 picks, finishing the season with a 60.2% completion rate for 3,822 yards (6.7 YPA), 23 TD and 9 INT. Although he struggled in his postseason debut last year in Baltimore (28-of-54, 288 yards, 5.3 YPA, 0 TD, 1 INT), Luck was on target against the Chiefs in Week 16, completing 26-of-37 passes (70.3%) for 241 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. Although he misses injured WR Reggie Wayne, Luck has relied mostly on fellow second-year pros WR T.Y. Hilton (1,083 rec. yards, 5 TD) and TE Coby Fleener (608 rec. yards, 4 TD) when he drops back. However, it was rookie WR Griff Whalen who did the most damage against K.C. two weeks ago with seven catches for 80 yards. The offense isn't all based on Luck though, as the Colts have rushed the football effectively this year too with 109 YPG on 4.3 YPC (13th in NFL), including 122 rushing YPG in the past three games. RB Donald Brown (537 rush yards, 6 TD) ran for 79 yards on just 10 carries against the Chiefs, which included a 51-yard TD scamper. His 5.3 YPC average ranks third in the NFL this season, and he has been a welcomed change of pace from disappointing RB Trent Richardson. The No. 3 overall draft pick in 2012 rushed for only 458 yards on 2.9 YPC with 3 TD in his 14 games with Indianapolis this year, and gained just 43 yards on 16 carries (2.7 YPC) versus the Chiefs two weeks ago. The Colts defense has been erratic all season, allowing 33+ points four times, but holding five opponents (including each of the past three) to 10 points or less. The +7 turnover rate over the past three contests has been a key to the win streak, but a poor run defense has to be concerned with Jamaal Charles. For the season, Indy ranks 26th in the NFL in rushing defense (125 YPG) and 25th with 4.5 YPC allowed. The squad is also subpar in the red zone, allowing a hefty 59% TD rate (20th in NFL).
Eagles seek 5th straight home win Saturday vs. N.O.
by Brian Graham
NFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Philadelphia -2.5, Total: 53.5
The Saints try to end a three-game road losing skid when they visit the surging Eagles in the NFC Wild Card Playoffs on Saturday night.
New Orleans is 1-7 ATS with a mere 17.7 PPG on the road this season, while Philadelphia has compiled 34.0 PPG during four straight home wins (3-1 ATS). But the only time these teams met in Philadelphia in the past 10 years was a 48-22 romp by the Saints in 2009, which got 311 passing yards and 3 TD from Drew Brees. The Eagles have a red-hot quarterback (who also went to the same high school as Brees) in Nick Foles, who finished the season with the NFL’s best passer rating (119.2), throwing 27 touchdowns and only two interceptions. While this game marks Foles' playoff debut, Brees is 5-4 in his playoff career, but is 0-3 in true road games despite strong numbers in the three defeats (1,220 pass yards, 7.1 YPA, 8 TD, 3 INT). He has helped New Orleans go 15-5 ATS (75%) versus poor defenses (350+ YPG) since 2011, but Philadelphia is 23-8 ATS (74%) versus excellent offenses (6+ yards per play) in the second half of the season since 1992. Both teams are relatively injury-free on the offensive side of the ball, but key players are missing from both secondaries with Saints S Kenny Vaccaro (ankle) on IR and Eagles safeties Earl Wolff and Colt Anderson both questionable with knee injuries.
The Saints finished the regular season fourth in the NFL in total offense (399 YPG) and second in passing offense (307 YPG), while ranking 10th in scoring at 25.9 PPG. But on the road, those numbers dipped to 356 total YPG, 275 passing YPG, with the team failing to surpass 17 points in each of the past four away contests (13.3 PPG). New Orleans hasn't been able to run the ball effectively anywhere this season with 92 rushing YPG (25th in NFL) on 3.8 YPC (26th in league) overall, and 81 rushing YPG on 3.6 YPC on the road. QB Drew Brees eclipsed the 5,000-yard passing mark for the third straight season, finishing with 5,162 yards (7.9 YPA), 39 TD and only 12 INT. With the game-time temperature expected to be in the low-30's, that doesn't bode well for Brees, who is just 4-9 in his career in 40 degrees or lower, but his numbers in these cold-weather contests have still been strong (289 passing YPG, 7.3 YPA, 23 TD, 10 INT). This season he has relied mostly on four receivers that each has more than 70 receptions this season in TE Jimmy Graham (1,215 rec. yards, 16 TD), WR Marques Colston (943 rec. yards, 5 TD), RB Darren Sproles (604 rec. yards, 2 TD) and RB Pierre Thomas (513 rec. yards, 3 TD). Thomas leads the team in rushing with 549 yards, but averages only 3.7 YPC. RB Mark Ingram has been the most effective rusher at 5.0 YPC on his 78 carries, and he had a huge effort in the team's last road game in Week 16, rushing for 83 yards on 13 carries (6.4 YPC) against a stout Panthers run defense. The Saints defense has improved leaps and bounds from last season when they allowed 28.4 PPG and a league-worst 440 total YPG. This season under defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, those numbers have been trimmed to 19.0 PPG and 306 total YPG, which both rank fourth in league. The unit has been on the field for a league-low 27:19, thanks to the fewest first downs allowed in the NFL (17.1 per game) and a strong third-down defense (35%, 9th in league) helped out by 49 sacks (4th in NFL). But after compiling an impressive 15 takeaways in the first seven games of the season, the defense has generated only four turnovers in the final nine contests combined. New Orleans has excelled in defending the pass (194 YPG, 2nd in league), but gives up 4.6 yards per carry (28th in league), which poses a major problem going up against the best rushing offense in the NFL.
Philadelphia averages 160 rushing YPG on 5.1 YPC, both tops in the league. RB LeSean McCoy has taken 62% of the carries, rushing 314 times for an NFL-high 1,607 yards (5.1 YPC) and nine touchdowns. The cold weather shouldn't affect his performance either, considering in the team's lone game this year with the temperature below 40 in Week 14, McCoy rushed for 217 yards on 29 carries (7.5 YPC) and two fourth-quarter touchdowns in a snowstorm. He has also helped out the passing game greatly with 52 catches for 539 yards and two more scores. The Eagles lead the NFL in passing yards per attempt (8.7 YPA) and place ninth in passing yards (257 YPG). QB Nick Foles, who attended the same Westlake High School in Austin, TX as Brees, was 8-2 as a starter this season, finishing the year with 2,891 passing yards (9.1 YPA) on a 64.0% completion rate. During the four-game home win streak, he completed 65.4% of his throws for 944 yards (8.8 YPA), 6 TD and 1 INT. Foles has done a nice job spreading the passes around, as six different Eagles have gained at least 440 receiving yards this season, led by WRs DeSean Jackson (1,332 rec. yards, 9 TD) and Riley Cooper (835 rec. yards, 8 TD). TEs Brent Celek and Zach Ertz have combined for 971 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. While the offense has generated 417 total YPG (2nd in NFL) and 27.6 PPG (4th in league), the defense has been deficient in a number of areas. The unit allows the most passing yards in the NFL at 290 YPG, ranks fourth-worst in total yardage allowed (394 YPG), and its poor third-down defense (40%, 24th in league) has led to being on the field for 33:35, which is the longest of any NFL team. On the bright side, Philadelphia has stuffed the run effectively all season with 3.8 YPC allowed (4th in league) and has done an outstanding job of creating turnovers this season. The Eagles have 31 takeaways this season, forcing at least two turnovers in 11 of their 16 games this year.
by Brian Graham
NFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Philadelphia -2.5, Total: 53.5
The Saints try to end a three-game road losing skid when they visit the surging Eagles in the NFC Wild Card Playoffs on Saturday night.
New Orleans is 1-7 ATS with a mere 17.7 PPG on the road this season, while Philadelphia has compiled 34.0 PPG during four straight home wins (3-1 ATS). But the only time these teams met in Philadelphia in the past 10 years was a 48-22 romp by the Saints in 2009, which got 311 passing yards and 3 TD from Drew Brees. The Eagles have a red-hot quarterback (who also went to the same high school as Brees) in Nick Foles, who finished the season with the NFL’s best passer rating (119.2), throwing 27 touchdowns and only two interceptions. While this game marks Foles' playoff debut, Brees is 5-4 in his playoff career, but is 0-3 in true road games despite strong numbers in the three defeats (1,220 pass yards, 7.1 YPA, 8 TD, 3 INT). He has helped New Orleans go 15-5 ATS (75%) versus poor defenses (350+ YPG) since 2011, but Philadelphia is 23-8 ATS (74%) versus excellent offenses (6+ yards per play) in the second half of the season since 1992. Both teams are relatively injury-free on the offensive side of the ball, but key players are missing from both secondaries with Saints S Kenny Vaccaro (ankle) on IR and Eagles safeties Earl Wolff and Colt Anderson both questionable with knee injuries.
The Saints finished the regular season fourth in the NFL in total offense (399 YPG) and second in passing offense (307 YPG), while ranking 10th in scoring at 25.9 PPG. But on the road, those numbers dipped to 356 total YPG, 275 passing YPG, with the team failing to surpass 17 points in each of the past four away contests (13.3 PPG). New Orleans hasn't been able to run the ball effectively anywhere this season with 92 rushing YPG (25th in NFL) on 3.8 YPC (26th in league) overall, and 81 rushing YPG on 3.6 YPC on the road. QB Drew Brees eclipsed the 5,000-yard passing mark for the third straight season, finishing with 5,162 yards (7.9 YPA), 39 TD and only 12 INT. With the game-time temperature expected to be in the low-30's, that doesn't bode well for Brees, who is just 4-9 in his career in 40 degrees or lower, but his numbers in these cold-weather contests have still been strong (289 passing YPG, 7.3 YPA, 23 TD, 10 INT). This season he has relied mostly on four receivers that each has more than 70 receptions this season in TE Jimmy Graham (1,215 rec. yards, 16 TD), WR Marques Colston (943 rec. yards, 5 TD), RB Darren Sproles (604 rec. yards, 2 TD) and RB Pierre Thomas (513 rec. yards, 3 TD). Thomas leads the team in rushing with 549 yards, but averages only 3.7 YPC. RB Mark Ingram has been the most effective rusher at 5.0 YPC on his 78 carries, and he had a huge effort in the team's last road game in Week 16, rushing for 83 yards on 13 carries (6.4 YPC) against a stout Panthers run defense. The Saints defense has improved leaps and bounds from last season when they allowed 28.4 PPG and a league-worst 440 total YPG. This season under defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, those numbers have been trimmed to 19.0 PPG and 306 total YPG, which both rank fourth in league. The unit has been on the field for a league-low 27:19, thanks to the fewest first downs allowed in the NFL (17.1 per game) and a strong third-down defense (35%, 9th in league) helped out by 49 sacks (4th in NFL). But after compiling an impressive 15 takeaways in the first seven games of the season, the defense has generated only four turnovers in the final nine contests combined. New Orleans has excelled in defending the pass (194 YPG, 2nd in league), but gives up 4.6 yards per carry (28th in league), which poses a major problem going up against the best rushing offense in the NFL.
Philadelphia averages 160 rushing YPG on 5.1 YPC, both tops in the league. RB LeSean McCoy has taken 62% of the carries, rushing 314 times for an NFL-high 1,607 yards (5.1 YPC) and nine touchdowns. The cold weather shouldn't affect his performance either, considering in the team's lone game this year with the temperature below 40 in Week 14, McCoy rushed for 217 yards on 29 carries (7.5 YPC) and two fourth-quarter touchdowns in a snowstorm. He has also helped out the passing game greatly with 52 catches for 539 yards and two more scores. The Eagles lead the NFL in passing yards per attempt (8.7 YPA) and place ninth in passing yards (257 YPG). QB Nick Foles, who attended the same Westlake High School in Austin, TX as Brees, was 8-2 as a starter this season, finishing the year with 2,891 passing yards (9.1 YPA) on a 64.0% completion rate. During the four-game home win streak, he completed 65.4% of his throws for 944 yards (8.8 YPA), 6 TD and 1 INT. Foles has done a nice job spreading the passes around, as six different Eagles have gained at least 440 receiving yards this season, led by WRs DeSean Jackson (1,332 rec. yards, 9 TD) and Riley Cooper (835 rec. yards, 8 TD). TEs Brent Celek and Zach Ertz have combined for 971 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. While the offense has generated 417 total YPG (2nd in NFL) and 27.6 PPG (4th in league), the defense has been deficient in a number of areas. The unit allows the most passing yards in the NFL at 290 YPG, ranks fourth-worst in total yardage allowed (394 YPG), and its poor third-down defense (40%, 24th in league) has led to being on the field for 33:35, which is the longest of any NFL team. On the bright side, Philadelphia has stuffed the run effectively all season with 3.8 YPC allowed (4th in league) and has done an outstanding job of creating turnovers this season. The Eagles have 31 takeaways this season, forcing at least two turnovers in 11 of their 16 games this year.
NFL weather report
An early look at Wild Card Weekend weather
Weather could play a role in three of the four NFL Wild Card Weekend games, with cold, rain and snow in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday.
Here’s a look at the early forecast for Philadelphia.
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 54.5)
The early forecast for Philadelphia calls for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 20s with winds blowing SSW at 6mph from corner to corner. The Eagles have won four straight at home since the weather turned cold while the Saints have struggled in outdoor venues and average only 17.8 points per road game compared to an average of 34 points at home.
An early look at Wild Card Weekend weather
Weather could play a role in three of the four NFL Wild Card Weekend games, with cold, rain and snow in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday.
Here’s a look at the early forecast for Philadelphia.
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 54.5)
The early forecast for Philadelphia calls for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 20s with winds blowing SSW at 6mph from corner to corner. The Eagles have won four straight at home since the weather turned cold while the Saints have struggled in outdoor venues and average only 17.8 points per road game compared to an average of 34 points at home.
Betting NFL dogs? Amazing trend will have you thinking moneylines
If you’re thinking about taking the points this NFL Wild Card Weekend, you may want to forget the pointspread all together and go all in on the NFL underdog moneylines.
According to Marc Lawrence, the outright winner in NFL opening-round playoff games is 104-11-3 ATS since 1980 – an astonishing 89 percent cover rate. Simply put: Whoever wins, covers the spread in the opening round of the NFL postseason.
Last season, the Houston Texas won and covered versus the Cincinnati Bengals, the Green Bay Packers won and covered against the Minnesota Vikings, the Baltimore Ravens won and covered over the Indianapolis Colts, and the Seattle Seahawks won and cover against the Washington Redskins.
In 2011-12, the Texans, Saints, Giants, and Broncos all came away with the SU and ATS victory. In 2010-11, the Seahawks, Jets, Ravens, and Packers were big for fans and bettors during the Wild Card Weekend. In 2009-10, the Jets, Cowboys, Ravens, and Cardinals were good enough for the win and cover. And in 2008-09, the Cardinals, Chargers, Ravens, and Eagles all won SU and ATS.
In fact, the last Wild Card winners to fall short of the spread were the Jacksonville Jaguars, who beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-29 but couldn’t cover as 2.5-point road favorites in the 2007-08 NFL Wild Card Weekend. The three other Wild Card winners that year – Seahawks, Giants, and Chargers – all managed to exceed the oddsmakers’ expectations.
This weekend, oddsmakers have the Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) priced at +115 to win SU versus the Indianapolis Colts, the New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at +130 moneyline underdogs at Philadelphia, the San Diego Chargers (+7) listed at +250 pups in Cincinnati, and the Green Bay Packers (+2.5) are +130 moneyline underdogs at home to San Francisco.
If you’re thinking about taking the points this NFL Wild Card Weekend, you may want to forget the pointspread all together and go all in on the NFL underdog moneylines.
According to Marc Lawrence, the outright winner in NFL opening-round playoff games is 104-11-3 ATS since 1980 – an astonishing 89 percent cover rate. Simply put: Whoever wins, covers the spread in the opening round of the NFL postseason.
Last season, the Houston Texas won and covered versus the Cincinnati Bengals, the Green Bay Packers won and covered against the Minnesota Vikings, the Baltimore Ravens won and covered over the Indianapolis Colts, and the Seattle Seahawks won and cover against the Washington Redskins.
In 2011-12, the Texans, Saints, Giants, and Broncos all came away with the SU and ATS victory. In 2010-11, the Seahawks, Jets, Ravens, and Packers were big for fans and bettors during the Wild Card Weekend. In 2009-10, the Jets, Cowboys, Ravens, and Cardinals were good enough for the win and cover. And in 2008-09, the Cardinals, Chargers, Ravens, and Eagles all won SU and ATS.
In fact, the last Wild Card winners to fall short of the spread were the Jacksonville Jaguars, who beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-29 but couldn’t cover as 2.5-point road favorites in the 2007-08 NFL Wild Card Weekend. The three other Wild Card winners that year – Seahawks, Giants, and Chargers – all managed to exceed the oddsmakers’ expectations.
This weekend, oddsmakers have the Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) priced at +115 to win SU versus the Indianapolis Colts, the New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at +130 moneyline underdogs at Philadelphia, the San Diego Chargers (+7) listed at +250 pups in Cincinnati, and the Green Bay Packers (+2.5) are +130 moneyline underdogs at home to San Francisco.
WINNING POINTS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Pittsburgh over North Carolina State* by 6
Ohio State* over Nebraska by 18
Memphis* over Cincinnati by 5
Tulsa* over CS Fullerton by 9
Western Kentucky over Troy* by 8
Georgetown* over St. John’s by 7
SJU can bang and hang if the Hoyas’ bricklaying guards have one of their typical misfire
outings.
GEORGETOWN, 69-62.
Iowa State over Texas Tech* by 14
SMU* over Connecticut by 1
UConn is the stranger in a strange land in a circled game for SMU and Larry Brown.
SMU, 68-67.
Syracuse* over Miami-FL by 18
Vanderbilt* over Northeastern by 10
Maryland* over Georgia Tech by 7
Arizona* over Washington by 24
Second road game in less than three nights for the depth-shy Romar Roundballers,
against one of the best teams in the nation. Let the rout begin.
ARIZONA, 92-68.
Delaware* over Cal Poly-SLO by 9
Marquette* over Depaul by 14
Indiana* over Michigan State by 1
St. Bonaventure* over Cornell by 25
Wisconsin-GB* over Youngstown State by 12
Big guys vs. little guys edge for the host Gee Bees, but Youngstown can stay in any
game when their bevy of three-point shooters are hot. However, they lost by 11 and
17 in last year’s series.
WISCONSIN-GB, 79-67.
Detroit* over Wright State by 6
Xavier* over Butler by 2
Illinois* over Penn State by 9
North Texas* over Cal-Riverside by 4
Creighton over Seton Hall* by 2
If all injured hands are on deck for Seton Hall, they’ll have the right amount of size,
length, muscle and shooting to hang with Creighton as the Blue Jays make their initial
trip to the East Coast as a member of the Big East.
CREIGHTON, 78-76.
Florida* over Richmond by 19
If Billy Donovan can get his kids to care, it shouldn’t be close.
FLORIDA, 78-59.
Utah* over Oregon State by 10
Oregon State has a knack for playing games in which the spread is in doubt in the final
seconds.
UTAH, 82-72.
San Francisco* over Pepperdine by 7
South Florida* over Houston by 5
Clemson over Boston College* by 6
***BEST BET
Duke over Notre Dame* by 22
Notre Dame, not enough muscle to make Duke cringe and cry to the refs. Also, with
leading scorer Jerian Grant out for the season, Irish offense has a fine opportunity to
take a swan dive. Coach K to former assistant, Irish head coach Mike Brey: ‘Ha-ha,
you came into my conference and I come into your house and steal your cookies.’
DUKE, 82-60.
Central Florida* over Temple by 5
West Virginia over TCU* by 5
Oklahoma State over Kansas State* by 8
K-State plays strong defense, but the best offensive teams in the nation have a habit of overcoming the road, and a strong home defense.
OKLAHOMA STATE, 71-63.
Florida State* over Virginia by 11
South Alabama* over Georgia State by 1
Missouri* over Long Beach State by 24
Most teams are opening their conference season but LBS head coach Dan Monson is
still spending his Big West program’s money traveling to places where they should get
killed.
MISSOURI, 84-60.
UL-Lafayette over UL-Monroe* by 4
Arkansas State over Texas State* by 2
Saint Louis* over Yale by 20
Valparaiso over Oakland* by 3
Louisville over Rutgers* by 19
Texas-Arlington* over Arkansas-LR by 9
Loyola Marymount over Santa Clara* by 1
Shot-hog Anthony Ireland got 9 assists for Marymount in their home upset of BYU
last Saturday. Freshman guard Evan Payne doubled Ireland’s 14 points. What’s goin’
on here?
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT, 81-80.
New Mexico* over Colorado State by 9
Nevada* over Wyoming by 3
Wyoming gets an offensive rebound about twice a half, and that’s only a slight exaggeration. Nevada gets about twice as many and they’re not even a big team. NEVADA, 63-60.
**PREFERRED
Old Dominion* over George Mason by 10
Former Georgia Tech head coach Paul Hewitt is in the process of putting the George
Mason program farther in the rear-view. They’re in the A-10 now, where they figure
to be buried, but before they open that conference season they have to go back to former CAA foe Old Dominion and play a true, non-conference road game. They are
turning the ball over 15 times per game despite reverting to a slow-paced style. ODU
is a desperate team playing one of few winnable games.
OLD DOMINION, 70-60.
James Madison over NC-Wilmington* by 4
Massachusetts* over Miami-OH by 27
Lasalle over Penn* by 8
***BEST BET
LSU* over Rhode Island by 28
Traveling down into an SEC house, with a team scoring only 67.5 ppg, hitting only
29.4% on three-pointers and a roster that has a severe lack of experience in the frontcourt is probably not the best way to avoid getting killed. It’s a good day to be LSU’s two leading scorers, 6’9” Johnny O’Bryant and 6’8” Jordan Mickey, who are supported by group of junior and senior guards.
LSU, 78-50.
Mississippi* over Dayton by 5
Harvard over Rice* by 14
Texas* over Oklahoma by 5
Wisconsin-Milwaukee* over Cleveland State by 2
Gonzaga* over Pacific by 16
**PREFERRED
Indiana State over Evansville* by 10
D.J. Balentine, a 6’2” soph, has stepped up and filled the Colt Ryan scoring void for
Evansville against a weak schedule so far, scoring 22.8 ppg. Visiting ISU will say, ‘We
knew Colt Ryan. You, son, are no Colt Ryan.’ Nobody else scores in double digits for
the Purple Aces.
INDIANA STATE, 72-62.
Bradley* over Drake by 1
Arkansas* over Texas San Antonio by 31
BYU* over San Diego by 16
Boise State* over Fresno State by 10
Utah State* over San Jose State by 19
St. Mary’s over Portland* by 4
UNLV* over Air Force by 15
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Pittsburgh over North Carolina State* by 6
Ohio State* over Nebraska by 18
Memphis* over Cincinnati by 5
Tulsa* over CS Fullerton by 9
Western Kentucky over Troy* by 8
Georgetown* over St. John’s by 7
SJU can bang and hang if the Hoyas’ bricklaying guards have one of their typical misfire
outings.
GEORGETOWN, 69-62.
Iowa State over Texas Tech* by 14
SMU* over Connecticut by 1
UConn is the stranger in a strange land in a circled game for SMU and Larry Brown.
SMU, 68-67.
Syracuse* over Miami-FL by 18
Vanderbilt* over Northeastern by 10
Maryland* over Georgia Tech by 7
Arizona* over Washington by 24
Second road game in less than three nights for the depth-shy Romar Roundballers,
against one of the best teams in the nation. Let the rout begin.
ARIZONA, 92-68.
Delaware* over Cal Poly-SLO by 9
Marquette* over Depaul by 14
Indiana* over Michigan State by 1
St. Bonaventure* over Cornell by 25
Wisconsin-GB* over Youngstown State by 12
Big guys vs. little guys edge for the host Gee Bees, but Youngstown can stay in any
game when their bevy of three-point shooters are hot. However, they lost by 11 and
17 in last year’s series.
WISCONSIN-GB, 79-67.
Detroit* over Wright State by 6
Xavier* over Butler by 2
Illinois* over Penn State by 9
North Texas* over Cal-Riverside by 4
Creighton over Seton Hall* by 2
If all injured hands are on deck for Seton Hall, they’ll have the right amount of size,
length, muscle and shooting to hang with Creighton as the Blue Jays make their initial
trip to the East Coast as a member of the Big East.
CREIGHTON, 78-76.
Florida* over Richmond by 19
If Billy Donovan can get his kids to care, it shouldn’t be close.
FLORIDA, 78-59.
Utah* over Oregon State by 10
Oregon State has a knack for playing games in which the spread is in doubt in the final
seconds.
UTAH, 82-72.
San Francisco* over Pepperdine by 7
South Florida* over Houston by 5
Clemson over Boston College* by 6
***BEST BET
Duke over Notre Dame* by 22
Notre Dame, not enough muscle to make Duke cringe and cry to the refs. Also, with
leading scorer Jerian Grant out for the season, Irish offense has a fine opportunity to
take a swan dive. Coach K to former assistant, Irish head coach Mike Brey: ‘Ha-ha,
you came into my conference and I come into your house and steal your cookies.’
DUKE, 82-60.
Central Florida* over Temple by 5
West Virginia over TCU* by 5
Oklahoma State over Kansas State* by 8
K-State plays strong defense, but the best offensive teams in the nation have a habit of overcoming the road, and a strong home defense.
OKLAHOMA STATE, 71-63.
Florida State* over Virginia by 11
South Alabama* over Georgia State by 1
Missouri* over Long Beach State by 24
Most teams are opening their conference season but LBS head coach Dan Monson is
still spending his Big West program’s money traveling to places where they should get
killed.
MISSOURI, 84-60.
UL-Lafayette over UL-Monroe* by 4
Arkansas State over Texas State* by 2
Saint Louis* over Yale by 20
Valparaiso over Oakland* by 3
Louisville over Rutgers* by 19
Texas-Arlington* over Arkansas-LR by 9
Loyola Marymount over Santa Clara* by 1
Shot-hog Anthony Ireland got 9 assists for Marymount in their home upset of BYU
last Saturday. Freshman guard Evan Payne doubled Ireland’s 14 points. What’s goin’
on here?
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT, 81-80.
New Mexico* over Colorado State by 9
Nevada* over Wyoming by 3
Wyoming gets an offensive rebound about twice a half, and that’s only a slight exaggeration. Nevada gets about twice as many and they’re not even a big team. NEVADA, 63-60.
**PREFERRED
Old Dominion* over George Mason by 10
Former Georgia Tech head coach Paul Hewitt is in the process of putting the George
Mason program farther in the rear-view. They’re in the A-10 now, where they figure
to be buried, but before they open that conference season they have to go back to former CAA foe Old Dominion and play a true, non-conference road game. They are
turning the ball over 15 times per game despite reverting to a slow-paced style. ODU
is a desperate team playing one of few winnable games.
OLD DOMINION, 70-60.
James Madison over NC-Wilmington* by 4
Massachusetts* over Miami-OH by 27
Lasalle over Penn* by 8
***BEST BET
LSU* over Rhode Island by 28
Traveling down into an SEC house, with a team scoring only 67.5 ppg, hitting only
29.4% on three-pointers and a roster that has a severe lack of experience in the frontcourt is probably not the best way to avoid getting killed. It’s a good day to be LSU’s two leading scorers, 6’9” Johnny O’Bryant and 6’8” Jordan Mickey, who are supported by group of junior and senior guards.
LSU, 78-50.
Mississippi* over Dayton by 5
Harvard over Rice* by 14
Texas* over Oklahoma by 5
Wisconsin-Milwaukee* over Cleveland State by 2
Gonzaga* over Pacific by 16
**PREFERRED
Indiana State over Evansville* by 10
D.J. Balentine, a 6’2” soph, has stepped up and filled the Colt Ryan scoring void for
Evansville against a weak schedule so far, scoring 22.8 ppg. Visiting ISU will say, ‘We
knew Colt Ryan. You, son, are no Colt Ryan.’ Nobody else scores in double digits for
the Purple Aces.
INDIANA STATE, 72-62.
Bradley* over Drake by 1
Arkansas* over Texas San Antonio by 31
BYU* over San Diego by 16
Boise State* over Fresno State by 10
Utah State* over San Jose State by 19
St. Mary’s over Portland* by 4
UNLV* over Air Force by 15
POINTWISE
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
OAKLAND over Valparaiso (Sat) RATING: 1
CLEMSON over Boston College (Sat) RATING: 2
DRAKE over Bradley (Sat) RATING: 5
(12:00) Pittsburgh 70 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 66 _____ _____
(12:00) OHIO STATE 75 - Nebraska 53 (BIG10) _____ _____
(12:00) MEMPHIS 69 - Cincinnati 66 (ESPN2) _____ _____
(1:00) TULSA 76 - Cal-Fullerton 61 _____ _____
(1:00) Western Kentucky 68 - TROY 59 _____ _____
(1:00) GEORGETOWN 71 - St Johns 60 (FOX1) _____ _____
(1:45) TEXAS TECH 69 - Iowa State 64 _____ _____
(2:00) Connecticut 77- SMU 72 (ESPNU) _____ _____
(2:00) SYRACUSE 85 - Miami-Florida 67 _____ _____
(2:00) VANDERBILT 72 - Northeastern 58 _____ _____
(2:00) MARYLAND 70 - Georgia Tech 65 _____ _____
(2:00) ARIZONA 73 - Washington 52 _____ _____
(2:00) DELAWARE 68 - Cal-Poly Slo 57 _____ _____
(2:00) MARQUETTE 81 - DePaul 75 (CBSC) _____ _____
(2:00) INDIANA 72 - Michigan State 71 (CBS) _____ _____
(2:00) ST BONAVENTURE 77 - Cornell 52 (NBCS) _____ _____
(2:00) WISC-GREEN BAY 69 - Youngstown State 59 _____ _____
(2:00) DETROIT 68 - Wright State 67 _____ _____
(2:00) XAVIER 73 - Butler 72 _____ _____
(2:15) ILLINOIS 67 - Penn State 55 _____ _____
(3:00) NORTH TEXAS 71 - Cal-Riverside 64 _____ _____
(3:00) SETON HALL 76 - Creighton 72 (FOX1) _____ _____
(3:00) FLORIDA 84 - Richmond 61 _____ _____
(4:00) UTAH 79 - Oregon State 62 _____ _____
(4:00) SAN FRANCISCO 78 - Pepperdine 66 _____ _____
(4:00) SOUTH FLORIDA 75 - Houston 61 (CBSC) _____ _____
(4:00) Clemson 67 - BOSTON COLLEGE 58 _____ _____
(4:00) NOTRE DAME 74 - Duke 73 (CBS) _____ _____
(4:00) CENTRAL FLORIDA 81 - Temple 70 (ESPNN) _____ _____
(4:00) West Virginia 67 - TCU 57 _____ _____
(4:00) Oklahoma State 72 - KANSAS STATE 71 (ESPNU) _____ _____
(5:00) FLORIDA STATE 63 - Virginia 56 (ESPN2) _____ _____
(5:00) SOUTH ALABAMA 70 - Georgia State 69 _____ _____
(5:00) MISSOURI 84 - Long Beach State 57 (FSN) _____ _____
(5:00) La-Lafayette 79 - LA-MONROE 70 _____ _____
(5:30) TEXAS STATE 62- Arkansas State 61 _____ _____
(8:30) SAINT LOUIS 76 - Yale 72 (NBCS) _____ _____
(8:00) OAKLAND 77 - Valparaiso 66 _____ _____
(6:00) Louisville 80 - RUTGERS 57 (CBSC) _____ _____
(6:00) TEXAS-ARLINGTON 70 - Arkansas-Little Rock 59 _____ _____
(6:00) Loyola-Marymount 64 - SANTA CLARA 62 _____ _____
(6:00) NEW MEXICO 83 - Colorado State 64 (ESPNU) _____ _____
(6:00) Wyoming 66 - NEVADA 58 (BIG10) _____ _____
(7:00) George Mason 81 - OLD DOMINION 73 _____ _____
(7:00) UNC-WILMINGTON 67 - James Madison 62 _____ _____
(7:00) MASSACHUSETTS 76 - Miami-Ohio 56 _____ _____
(7:00) PENNSYLVANIA 58 - LaSalle 55 _____ _____
(8:00) LSU 73 - Rhode Island 54 _____ _____
(8:00) MISSISSIPPI 66 - Dayton 61 _____ _____
(8:00) Harvard 87 - RICE 65 (CBSC) _____ _____
(8:00) TEXAS 78 - Oklahoma 77 _____ _____
(8:00) WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE 74 - Cleveland State 72 _____ _____
(8:00) GONZAGA 83 - Pacific 66 _____ _____
(8:00) EVANSVILLE 72 - Indiana State 61 (ESPNU) _____ _____
(8:00) Drake 69 - BRADLEY 62 _____ _____
(8:00) ARKANSAS 85 - Texas-San Antonio 64 _____ _____
(9:00) BYU 76 - San Diego 55 _____ _____
(9:00) BOISE STATE 73 - Fresno State 53 _____ _____
(9:00) UTAH STATE 68 - San Jose State 57 _____ _____
(10:00) Saint Marys 61 - PORTLAND 56 _____ _____
(10:00) UNLV 75 - Air Force 61 _____ _____
BEST BETS
TEXAS TECH
DEPAUL
FLORIDA
UTAH
CLEMSON (2)
FLORIDA STATE
WEST VIRGINIA
YALE
OAKLAND (1)
OKLAHOMA
EVANSVILLE
DRAKE (5)
SAINT MARYS
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
OAKLAND over Valparaiso (Sat) RATING: 1
CLEMSON over Boston College (Sat) RATING: 2
DRAKE over Bradley (Sat) RATING: 5
(12:00) Pittsburgh 70 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 66 _____ _____
(12:00) OHIO STATE 75 - Nebraska 53 (BIG10) _____ _____
(12:00) MEMPHIS 69 - Cincinnati 66 (ESPN2) _____ _____
(1:00) TULSA 76 - Cal-Fullerton 61 _____ _____
(1:00) Western Kentucky 68 - TROY 59 _____ _____
(1:00) GEORGETOWN 71 - St Johns 60 (FOX1) _____ _____
(1:45) TEXAS TECH 69 - Iowa State 64 _____ _____
(2:00) Connecticut 77- SMU 72 (ESPNU) _____ _____
(2:00) SYRACUSE 85 - Miami-Florida 67 _____ _____
(2:00) VANDERBILT 72 - Northeastern 58 _____ _____
(2:00) MARYLAND 70 - Georgia Tech 65 _____ _____
(2:00) ARIZONA 73 - Washington 52 _____ _____
(2:00) DELAWARE 68 - Cal-Poly Slo 57 _____ _____
(2:00) MARQUETTE 81 - DePaul 75 (CBSC) _____ _____
(2:00) INDIANA 72 - Michigan State 71 (CBS) _____ _____
(2:00) ST BONAVENTURE 77 - Cornell 52 (NBCS) _____ _____
(2:00) WISC-GREEN BAY 69 - Youngstown State 59 _____ _____
(2:00) DETROIT 68 - Wright State 67 _____ _____
(2:00) XAVIER 73 - Butler 72 _____ _____
(2:15) ILLINOIS 67 - Penn State 55 _____ _____
(3:00) NORTH TEXAS 71 - Cal-Riverside 64 _____ _____
(3:00) SETON HALL 76 - Creighton 72 (FOX1) _____ _____
(3:00) FLORIDA 84 - Richmond 61 _____ _____
(4:00) UTAH 79 - Oregon State 62 _____ _____
(4:00) SAN FRANCISCO 78 - Pepperdine 66 _____ _____
(4:00) SOUTH FLORIDA 75 - Houston 61 (CBSC) _____ _____
(4:00) Clemson 67 - BOSTON COLLEGE 58 _____ _____
(4:00) NOTRE DAME 74 - Duke 73 (CBS) _____ _____
(4:00) CENTRAL FLORIDA 81 - Temple 70 (ESPNN) _____ _____
(4:00) West Virginia 67 - TCU 57 _____ _____
(4:00) Oklahoma State 72 - KANSAS STATE 71 (ESPNU) _____ _____
(5:00) FLORIDA STATE 63 - Virginia 56 (ESPN2) _____ _____
(5:00) SOUTH ALABAMA 70 - Georgia State 69 _____ _____
(5:00) MISSOURI 84 - Long Beach State 57 (FSN) _____ _____
(5:00) La-Lafayette 79 - LA-MONROE 70 _____ _____
(5:30) TEXAS STATE 62- Arkansas State 61 _____ _____
(8:30) SAINT LOUIS 76 - Yale 72 (NBCS) _____ _____
(8:00) OAKLAND 77 - Valparaiso 66 _____ _____
(6:00) Louisville 80 - RUTGERS 57 (CBSC) _____ _____
(6:00) TEXAS-ARLINGTON 70 - Arkansas-Little Rock 59 _____ _____
(6:00) Loyola-Marymount 64 - SANTA CLARA 62 _____ _____
(6:00) NEW MEXICO 83 - Colorado State 64 (ESPNU) _____ _____
(6:00) Wyoming 66 - NEVADA 58 (BIG10) _____ _____
(7:00) George Mason 81 - OLD DOMINION 73 _____ _____
(7:00) UNC-WILMINGTON 67 - James Madison 62 _____ _____
(7:00) MASSACHUSETTS 76 - Miami-Ohio 56 _____ _____
(7:00) PENNSYLVANIA 58 - LaSalle 55 _____ _____
(8:00) LSU 73 - Rhode Island 54 _____ _____
(8:00) MISSISSIPPI 66 - Dayton 61 _____ _____
(8:00) Harvard 87 - RICE 65 (CBSC) _____ _____
(8:00) TEXAS 78 - Oklahoma 77 _____ _____
(8:00) WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE 74 - Cleveland State 72 _____ _____
(8:00) GONZAGA 83 - Pacific 66 _____ _____
(8:00) EVANSVILLE 72 - Indiana State 61 (ESPNU) _____ _____
(8:00) Drake 69 - BRADLEY 62 _____ _____
(8:00) ARKANSAS 85 - Texas-San Antonio 64 _____ _____
(9:00) BYU 76 - San Diego 55 _____ _____
(9:00) BOISE STATE 73 - Fresno State 53 _____ _____
(9:00) UTAH STATE 68 - San Jose State 57 _____ _____
(10:00) Saint Marys 61 - PORTLAND 56 _____ _____
(10:00) UNLV 75 - Air Force 61 _____ _____
BEST BETS
TEXAS TECH
DEPAUL
FLORIDA
UTAH
CLEMSON (2)
FLORIDA STATE
WEST VIRGINIA
YALE
OAKLAND (1)
OKLAHOMA
EVANSVILLE
DRAKE (5)
SAINT MARYS
StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets
CBB TENNESSEE TECH at BELMONT
Play On - Underdogs of 10 or more points (TENNESSEE TECH) poor three point shooting team (<=32%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO) after 15+ games
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )
CBB CINCINNATI at MEMPHIS
Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game, after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half
209-41 since 1997. ( 83.6% 83.0 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% -6.6 units )
CBB GEORGE MASON at OLD DOMINION
Play Against - A favorite vs. the 1rst half line (OLD DOMINION) a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after a loss by 6 points or less
67-31 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.4% 32.9 units )
CBB TENNESSEE TECH at BELMONT
Play On - Underdogs of 10 or more points (TENNESSEE TECH) poor three point shooting team (<=32%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO) after 15+ games
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )
CBB CINCINNATI at MEMPHIS
Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game, after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half
209-41 since 1997. ( 83.6% 83.0 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% -6.6 units )
CBB GEORGE MASON at OLD DOMINION
Play Against - A favorite vs. the 1rst half line (OLD DOMINION) a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after a loss by 6 points or less
67-31 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.4% 32.9 units )
StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets
NHL VANCOUVER at LOS ANGELES
Play On - Home Favorites against the money line (LOS ANGELES) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season
48-7 since 1997. ( 87.3% 36.9 units )
NHL VANCOUVER at LOS ANGELES
Play On - Home teams against the money line (LOS ANGELES) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season
51-13 since 1997. ( 79.7% 34.0 units )
NHL VANCOUVER at LOS ANGELES
Play On - A favorite against the money line (LOS ANGELES) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season
58-15 since 1997. ( 79.5% 37.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )
NHL VANCOUVER at LOS ANGELES
Play On - Home Favorites against the money line (LOS ANGELES) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season
48-7 since 1997. ( 87.3% 36.9 units )
NHL VANCOUVER at LOS ANGELES
Play On - Home teams against the money line (LOS ANGELES) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season
51-13 since 1997. ( 79.7% 34.0 units )
NHL VANCOUVER at LOS ANGELES
Play On - A favorite against the money line (LOS ANGELES) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season
58-15 since 1997. ( 79.5% 37.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )
No. 5 MSU travels to Indiana on Saturday
by Mark Kern
Assembly Hall - Bloomington, IN
Tip-off: Saturday, 2:00 p.m. ET
Line: TBD
No. 5 Michigan State looks for its second consecutive road victory to start Big Ten play as it visits Indiana Saturday afternoon.
Last season, these teams played two thrilling games, with the Hoosiers winning both matchups, including a 75-70 victory in Assembly Hall. That gives them three straight wins in this series following a six-game series win streak by the Spartans. Michigan State (7-5 ATS) has bounced back nicely since its lone loss of the season to North Carolina on Dec. 4, winning five straight games by an average of 23.4 PPG. In their last game against Penn State on Tuesday, the Spartans found themselves down seven points at halftime, but cranked up the defensive intensity in the second half to pull away for the easy 79-63 victory, outscoring the Nittany Lions 39-16 after the break. While MSU's offense has been excellent this season with 83.3 PPG (20th in nation), it will be facing an Indiana team that is nearly as potent on the offensive end with 82.0 PPG (28th in D-I). The Hoosiers (6-6-1 ATS) are coming off an 83-80 overtime loss at Illinois on New Year's Eve. While the Hoosiers have done a nice job scoring, they are still gelling as a cohesive offensive unit with only 12.2 APG (234th in nation). If they are going to beat the Spartans on Saturday, they must play together on the offensive end, as Michigan State does not give up many easy baskets.
The Spartans are one of the most balanced teams in the country, with four guys averaging double figures in points. The backcourt of SG Gary Harris (17.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.0 APG) and PG Keith Appling (15.8 PPG, 4.8 APG, 47% threes) may the be very best in all of college basketball. Appling is an extension of head coach Tom Izzo, directing the Spartans offense to 19.2 APG (2nd in nation) and a strong 48.7% FG clip (31st in D-I). He has grown as a point guard throughout his career, with an impressive 2.6 Ast/TO ratio this season. However, it is not just the terrific backcourt for the Spartans that makes the team so good, as there is a lot of talent in the frontcourt as well. C Adreian Payne (17.0 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 44% threes) and SF Branden Dawson (11.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 2.4 APG) do an outstanding job of controlling the pain on both ends of the court, as the Spartans rank 15th in the nation in rebounding (41.5 RPG). Payne has proven to be the type of guy that plays his best in the biggest games, as he averaged 17.5 PPG and 8.0 RPG in the two matchups against the Hoosiers last season. Dawson does a great job of understanding his role for the Spartans, and not trying to do anything more than that, making 59.2% FG. His rebounding has improved mightily this season, as he is averaging 3.4 more rebounds per game than he did last season. Michigan State has national title aspirations, as well as Big Ten title aspirations. For the Spartans to achieve these goals, these are the types of hostile environments that they must be able to win in. It will not be easy though, as they are facing an Indiana team looking to avoid an 0-2 start in conference play.
In the loss to Illinois, PG Yogi Ferrell (17.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4.1 APG) almost single-handedly willed the Hoosiers to a victory. In that game, he scored 30 points (9-of-15 FG), including 5-of-8 from the three-point line with five rebounds and four assists. However, as the case has been this season, the Hoosiers relied too much on one-on-one offense. They had only 11 assists on their 23 field goals, which has been a problem all season. The biggest strength of Indiana this season has been its ability to dominate the glass, ranking 4th in the country with 45.4 rebounds per game. That will be a huge key in this game as the Spartans are once again one of the most physical teams in all of the country. Indiana is a young team, but the talent is there to become a force in the Big Ten. Freshman PF Noah Vonleh (12.3 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 1.1 BPG) is emerging as a legitimate second scorer for the Hoosiers. In the loss against Illinois, he had 16 points, nine rebounds, four blocks and two steals before fouling out. The lone veteran on the team, senior SF Will Sheehey (10.7 PPG, 4.1 RPG) is to the Hoosiers what Dawson is to the Spartans as a versatile player able to contribute in many different ways. But after making 38% of his threes as a sophomore and 35% as a junior, he currently carries a 24% three-point clip (9-for-37) in his senior season. It is still too early to say that the Hoosiers are on the NCAA Tournament bubble, but a win against a national title contender like Michigan State would go a long way in proving that the Hoosiers deserve a berth this season.
by Mark Kern
Assembly Hall - Bloomington, IN
Tip-off: Saturday, 2:00 p.m. ET
Line: TBD
No. 5 Michigan State looks for its second consecutive road victory to start Big Ten play as it visits Indiana Saturday afternoon.
Last season, these teams played two thrilling games, with the Hoosiers winning both matchups, including a 75-70 victory in Assembly Hall. That gives them three straight wins in this series following a six-game series win streak by the Spartans. Michigan State (7-5 ATS) has bounced back nicely since its lone loss of the season to North Carolina on Dec. 4, winning five straight games by an average of 23.4 PPG. In their last game against Penn State on Tuesday, the Spartans found themselves down seven points at halftime, but cranked up the defensive intensity in the second half to pull away for the easy 79-63 victory, outscoring the Nittany Lions 39-16 after the break. While MSU's offense has been excellent this season with 83.3 PPG (20th in nation), it will be facing an Indiana team that is nearly as potent on the offensive end with 82.0 PPG (28th in D-I). The Hoosiers (6-6-1 ATS) are coming off an 83-80 overtime loss at Illinois on New Year's Eve. While the Hoosiers have done a nice job scoring, they are still gelling as a cohesive offensive unit with only 12.2 APG (234th in nation). If they are going to beat the Spartans on Saturday, they must play together on the offensive end, as Michigan State does not give up many easy baskets.
The Spartans are one of the most balanced teams in the country, with four guys averaging double figures in points. The backcourt of SG Gary Harris (17.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.0 APG) and PG Keith Appling (15.8 PPG, 4.8 APG, 47% threes) may the be very best in all of college basketball. Appling is an extension of head coach Tom Izzo, directing the Spartans offense to 19.2 APG (2nd in nation) and a strong 48.7% FG clip (31st in D-I). He has grown as a point guard throughout his career, with an impressive 2.6 Ast/TO ratio this season. However, it is not just the terrific backcourt for the Spartans that makes the team so good, as there is a lot of talent in the frontcourt as well. C Adreian Payne (17.0 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 44% threes) and SF Branden Dawson (11.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 2.4 APG) do an outstanding job of controlling the pain on both ends of the court, as the Spartans rank 15th in the nation in rebounding (41.5 RPG). Payne has proven to be the type of guy that plays his best in the biggest games, as he averaged 17.5 PPG and 8.0 RPG in the two matchups against the Hoosiers last season. Dawson does a great job of understanding his role for the Spartans, and not trying to do anything more than that, making 59.2% FG. His rebounding has improved mightily this season, as he is averaging 3.4 more rebounds per game than he did last season. Michigan State has national title aspirations, as well as Big Ten title aspirations. For the Spartans to achieve these goals, these are the types of hostile environments that they must be able to win in. It will not be easy though, as they are facing an Indiana team looking to avoid an 0-2 start in conference play.
In the loss to Illinois, PG Yogi Ferrell (17.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4.1 APG) almost single-handedly willed the Hoosiers to a victory. In that game, he scored 30 points (9-of-15 FG), including 5-of-8 from the three-point line with five rebounds and four assists. However, as the case has been this season, the Hoosiers relied too much on one-on-one offense. They had only 11 assists on their 23 field goals, which has been a problem all season. The biggest strength of Indiana this season has been its ability to dominate the glass, ranking 4th in the country with 45.4 rebounds per game. That will be a huge key in this game as the Spartans are once again one of the most physical teams in all of the country. Indiana is a young team, but the talent is there to become a force in the Big Ten. Freshman PF Noah Vonleh (12.3 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 1.1 BPG) is emerging as a legitimate second scorer for the Hoosiers. In the loss against Illinois, he had 16 points, nine rebounds, four blocks and two steals before fouling out. The lone veteran on the team, senior SF Will Sheehey (10.7 PPG, 4.1 RPG) is to the Hoosiers what Dawson is to the Spartans as a versatile player able to contribute in many different ways. But after making 38% of his threes as a sophomore and 35% as a junior, he currently carries a 24% three-point clip (9-for-37) in his senior season. It is still too early to say that the Hoosiers are on the NCAA Tournament bubble, but a win against a national title contender like Michigan State would go a long way in proving that the Hoosiers deserve a berth this season.
No. 7 Duke visits Notre Dame on Saturday
by Robert Livingston
Purcell Pavilion at the Joyce Center - South Bend, IN
Tip-off: Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET
Line: TBD
Notre Dame begins its first season of ACC play on Saturday against one of the conference’s toughest teams when No. 7 Duke makes its way to South Bend.
The Irish have suffered some disappointing losses to start the season, notably falling to unranked foes Indiana State and North Dakota State, both at home. They also lost to their only two ranked opponents (Ohio State and Iowa), and currently sit at 4-6-1 ATS overall, including a terrible 1-6-1 ATS at home. Duke's two losses have come against Kansas and Arizona, who were both ranked in the top five in the nation when the defeats occurred. Since the loss to the Wildcats, the Blue Devils have won five in a row (4-1 ATS) and are now 8-5 ATS this season. Their past two wins, against Eastern Michigan and Elon, came by a combined 61 points, but they have not played a true road game all season. Duke's offense ranks 14th nationally with 85.2 PPG, and it is making 50.2% of its shots (9th in nation). These two programs have met only once since Mike Brey, an assistant at Duke under head coach Mike Krzyzewski, took over as the Notre Dame head coach. That meeting occurred in the Round of 32 in the 2002 NCAA Tournament when the top-seeded Blue Devils overcame a seven-point deficit with about six minutes to play and beat the eighth-seeded Irish by a score of 84-77.
Duke’s offense is led by dominant freshman PF Jabari Parker (21.4 PPG, 8.0 RPG), who often plays down low for the Blue Devils but has the athleticism to score from anywhere on the floor. He leads the team in rebounding and is also hitting an impressive 46% of his three-pointers, making 53% FG overall. SF Rodney Hood (17.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG) also has height and versatility (53% FG, 43% threes), and he and Parker form one of the nation’s top-scoring duos. PG Quinn Cook (13.5 PPG, 6.3 APG) runs the offense for the Blue Devils, helping push the pace and make sure everybody gets their touches. He carries an impressive 3.2 Ast/TO ratio and also has at least two steals in five consecutive games and 16 in his past three contests. And off the bench, SG Andre Dawkins (9.6 PPG) is lethal from three-point range, hitting 51% of his tries (30-of-59). Although he hasn't gotten the playing time against top competition, averaging just 3.5 PPG in 7.3 MPG versus large-conference schools (Alabama, Arizona, Michigan and UCLA), he has feasted on smaller schools by averaging a hefty 16.5 PPG in 20.7 MPG against Florida Atlantic, UNC-Asheville, Vermont, Gardner-Webb, Eastern Michigan and Elon. Dawkins has not attempted a two-point basket in any of his past three games, and is averaging 17.5 PPG on 11-of-17 threes (65%) over his past two contests.
Notre Dame lost its leading scorer and passer when it suspended point guard Jerian Grant, who through the team’s first 12 games averaged 19.0 PPG and 6.2 APG. Now the offense should run through more through the post, where C Garrick Sherman (14.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG) and SF Pat Connaughton (13.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG) are both capable of putting up points. Sherman, a 6-foot-11 center, is more of a traditional post player with a 54% FG clip, while Connaughton, a swingman, can stretch defenses, hitting 2.5 threes per game on a 43% accuracy rate. On the perimeter, the loss of Grant will only place more pressure on G Eric Atkins (13.2 PPG, 4.5 APG, 3.4 RPG). In the team’s lone game without Grant, a scary 87-81 overtime win against 12-point underdog Canisius, Atkins was tremendous, scoring 30 points on 10-of-14 shooting, including 6-for-8 from beyond the arc. He also had seven assists, but turned it over seven times in that game too, so others like freshman G Demetrius Jackson (7.3 PPG, 2.0 APG) will have to pick up the slack. In his past five games, Jackson has only two turnovers in 135 minutes on the court, but has just eight assists in this span.
by Robert Livingston
Purcell Pavilion at the Joyce Center - South Bend, IN
Tip-off: Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET
Line: TBD
Notre Dame begins its first season of ACC play on Saturday against one of the conference’s toughest teams when No. 7 Duke makes its way to South Bend.
The Irish have suffered some disappointing losses to start the season, notably falling to unranked foes Indiana State and North Dakota State, both at home. They also lost to their only two ranked opponents (Ohio State and Iowa), and currently sit at 4-6-1 ATS overall, including a terrible 1-6-1 ATS at home. Duke's two losses have come against Kansas and Arizona, who were both ranked in the top five in the nation when the defeats occurred. Since the loss to the Wildcats, the Blue Devils have won five in a row (4-1 ATS) and are now 8-5 ATS this season. Their past two wins, against Eastern Michigan and Elon, came by a combined 61 points, but they have not played a true road game all season. Duke's offense ranks 14th nationally with 85.2 PPG, and it is making 50.2% of its shots (9th in nation). These two programs have met only once since Mike Brey, an assistant at Duke under head coach Mike Krzyzewski, took over as the Notre Dame head coach. That meeting occurred in the Round of 32 in the 2002 NCAA Tournament when the top-seeded Blue Devils overcame a seven-point deficit with about six minutes to play and beat the eighth-seeded Irish by a score of 84-77.
Duke’s offense is led by dominant freshman PF Jabari Parker (21.4 PPG, 8.0 RPG), who often plays down low for the Blue Devils but has the athleticism to score from anywhere on the floor. He leads the team in rebounding and is also hitting an impressive 46% of his three-pointers, making 53% FG overall. SF Rodney Hood (17.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG) also has height and versatility (53% FG, 43% threes), and he and Parker form one of the nation’s top-scoring duos. PG Quinn Cook (13.5 PPG, 6.3 APG) runs the offense for the Blue Devils, helping push the pace and make sure everybody gets their touches. He carries an impressive 3.2 Ast/TO ratio and also has at least two steals in five consecutive games and 16 in his past three contests. And off the bench, SG Andre Dawkins (9.6 PPG) is lethal from three-point range, hitting 51% of his tries (30-of-59). Although he hasn't gotten the playing time against top competition, averaging just 3.5 PPG in 7.3 MPG versus large-conference schools (Alabama, Arizona, Michigan and UCLA), he has feasted on smaller schools by averaging a hefty 16.5 PPG in 20.7 MPG against Florida Atlantic, UNC-Asheville, Vermont, Gardner-Webb, Eastern Michigan and Elon. Dawkins has not attempted a two-point basket in any of his past three games, and is averaging 17.5 PPG on 11-of-17 threes (65%) over his past two contests.
Notre Dame lost its leading scorer and passer when it suspended point guard Jerian Grant, who through the team’s first 12 games averaged 19.0 PPG and 6.2 APG. Now the offense should run through more through the post, where C Garrick Sherman (14.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG) and SF Pat Connaughton (13.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG) are both capable of putting up points. Sherman, a 6-foot-11 center, is more of a traditional post player with a 54% FG clip, while Connaughton, a swingman, can stretch defenses, hitting 2.5 threes per game on a 43% accuracy rate. On the perimeter, the loss of Grant will only place more pressure on G Eric Atkins (13.2 PPG, 4.5 APG, 3.4 RPG). In the team’s lone game without Grant, a scary 87-81 overtime win against 12-point underdog Canisius, Atkins was tremendous, scoring 30 points on 10-of-14 shooting, including 6-for-8 from beyond the arc. He also had seven assists, but turned it over seven times in that game too, so others like freshman G Demetrius Jackson (7.3 PPG, 2.0 APG) will have to pick up the slack. In his past five games, Jackson has only two turnovers in 135 minutes on the court, but has just eight assists in this span.
WINNING POINTS
COMPASS BOWL (Birmingham, AL)
Houston over Vanderbilt by 1
Houston opened 5-0 SU/ATS and ended the season on a sweet note, routing SMU
34-0. Their four losses were by 20 points total, two coming on the road vs. top 20
teams. The upgrade over last year’s 5-7 mark was fueled by newcomers. OC Doug
Meacham and DC David Gibbs were smart hires. Meacham is gone, wooed away by
TCU, but the man assuming his play-calling duties, holdover Travis Bush, assumed
that role last year when Mike Nesbitt was forced out in early September. Other newcomers of note were true freshmen John O’Korn and Greg Ward, the latter of whom
will see snaps as a red-zone QB and as a WR. Abetted by a disruptive defense that led
the nation in turnovers gained, giving the offense many short fields, UH had 31 scoring
drives under two minutes. Vanderbilt rebounded from a lopsided loss to Texas A
& M, winning their last four starts while displaying a gnarly defense. James Franklin
is an excellent coach, RB Jerron Seymour has elevated his game, cushioning the departure of Zac Stacy, hyper-productive WR Jordan Matthews will play on Sundays, and the Commodores have two studs in the secondary in Kenny Ladler and Andre Hall.
But Vanderbilt played a weak schedule by SEC standards, opposing only five teams
with winning records, and injuries have left relatively inexperienced Patton Robinette
as the only quarterback on the roster with game experience. If the precocious O’Korn
avoids interceptions (he had only 8 in 399 throws), the Cougars will likely prevail.
HOUSTON 27-26.
COMPASS BOWL (Birmingham, AL)
Houston over Vanderbilt by 1
Houston opened 5-0 SU/ATS and ended the season on a sweet note, routing SMU
34-0. Their four losses were by 20 points total, two coming on the road vs. top 20
teams. The upgrade over last year’s 5-7 mark was fueled by newcomers. OC Doug
Meacham and DC David Gibbs were smart hires. Meacham is gone, wooed away by
TCU, but the man assuming his play-calling duties, holdover Travis Bush, assumed
that role last year when Mike Nesbitt was forced out in early September. Other newcomers of note were true freshmen John O’Korn and Greg Ward, the latter of whom
will see snaps as a red-zone QB and as a WR. Abetted by a disruptive defense that led
the nation in turnovers gained, giving the offense many short fields, UH had 31 scoring
drives under two minutes. Vanderbilt rebounded from a lopsided loss to Texas A
& M, winning their last four starts while displaying a gnarly defense. James Franklin
is an excellent coach, RB Jerron Seymour has elevated his game, cushioning the departure of Zac Stacy, hyper-productive WR Jordan Matthews will play on Sundays, and the Commodores have two studs in the secondary in Kenny Ladler and Andre Hall.
But Vanderbilt played a weak schedule by SEC standards, opposing only five teams
with winning records, and injuries have left relatively inexperienced Patton Robinette
as the only quarterback on the roster with game experience. If the precocious O’Korn
avoids interceptions (he had only 8 in 399 throws), the Cougars will likely prevail.
HOUSTON 27-26.
WINNING POINTS
NFL WILDCARDS
*Indianapolis over Kansas City by 7
There was a sneak preview of this matchup only two weeks ago and Indianapolis
won, 23-7, at Kansas City. The key question is has anything changed from then?
Not likely. The Colts didn't just win they dominated. Indianapolis not only held
Kansas City to one score, but recorded four sacks, picked off Alex Smith twice and
stopped the Colts on eight of nine third down attempts. Now the Colts are at
Lucas Oil Stadium where they went 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS this season and are 13-3 SU,
12-4 ATS during the two-year Andrew Luck era. The Colts received their playoff
baptism last season in Luck's rookie season. Kansas City last made the playoffs during
the 2010 season. The Chiefs covered seven of their eight road games, but are
an outdoor grass team that will be playing in a dome for the first time this season.
They lack Indy's playoff experience as new coach Andy Reid has turned over much
of the roster. The Chiefs have feasted on weak teams and their defense has
declined. If you discount their Week 14 game against the hapless Redskins, the
Chiefs have surrendered 184 points in their last six games, which comes out to
30.6 points per game. Kansas City peaked during September and October. The
only teams they have managed to beat during their last six games are Oakland and
Washington. Since their bye in Week 10 and discounting the Redskins game, the
Chiefs have managed only a combined five sacks in six games. That's not going to
cut it against Luck, an elite talent. By contrast, Colts star pass rusher Robert
Mathis led the NFL in sacks with 19.5 and forced eight fumbles. The Chiefs
haven't beaten a top team all season while the Colts knocked of three of the best
teams in the NFL – Denver, San Francisco and Seattle – while proving they can
win in a shootout or in a physical battle. The best team the Chiefs defeated was the
Eagles. Their other victories came against all non-playoff teams - Jaguars,
Cowboys, Giants, Titans, Raiders twice, Texans, Browns, Bills and Redskins. A big
part of Kansas City's success was a plus 22 turnover ratio. Turnovers are hard to
predict, but the Colts were plus 13 in takeaways/giveaways. The Colts committed
the fewest turnovers in the league losing the ball just 14 times. Jamaal Charles is a
magnificent talent. But even with Charles producing a strong game, the Chiefs
managed only seven points against the Colts. Smith is just a glorified game manager,
not the playmaker Luck is. Quarterback matters the most, especially when it
comes to the playoffs. Also, Smith's top downfield threat, Dwayne Bowe, missed
last Sunday with a concussion.
INDIANAPOLIS 27-20.
New Orleans over *Philadelphia by 4
The Saints' road woes are well documented. Still, we're talking about an underdog
that has a top-three quarterback and a much superior defense. Rarely do you find
those kind of pluses when taking points. Keep in mind, too, that while the Saints
own a losing road record, the Eagles didn't post a winning home mark.
Philadelphia also is 3-10-1 ATS the past 14 times when taking on opponents with
an overall winning record. Nick Foles has an insane 27-to-2 touchdown-to-interception
ratio. But the Saints have Drew Brees, who doesn't exactly have shady
quarterback numbers either with a 39-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Do
you want Brees or Foles, who is unproven in the postseason, going for you? Our
clear choice is Brees. No knock on Foles and LeSean McCoy, who led the league
in rushing with 1,607 yards and set a team record with 2,146 yards from scrimmage.
It's just a question of trust. The Eagles are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 26 games
at Lincoln Financial Field. They won four games last season. Chip Kelly came from
Oregon, build an exciting offense and took advantage of a terrible division. Now
the Eagles have a chance to win their first playoff game since 2008. The Saints
annually make the postseason under Sean Payton and have a Super Bowl title in
their collection. We like Kelly. We like Foles. We just trust Payton and Brees more.
This is especially so given the Saints' defensive superiority. Rob Ryan should be
defensive coordinator of the year for straightening out a huge mess. The Saints
ranked fourth defensively in fewest yards allowed per game at 305.7 and also were
No. 4 in fewest points given up at 305.7. Foles was lucky enough to face soft NFC
East Division defenses. Now he has to deal with Ryan's various blitzes. On the flip
side, the Eagles were terrible defensively in 2012 and they weren't that much better
this season ranking 29th in total defense yielding 394 per game. That's nearly
90 yards per game more than New Orleans. Yes, the Saints are one-dimensional.
They can't run the ball. In today's NFL, which so favors passing and is skewed
toward offense, that's not necessarily a fatal flaw. The Saints can get away with this
facing an Eagles secondary that ranked dead last in pass defense surrendering
almost 290 yards passing per game. Brees not only has a deep set of wide receiving
threats, but also the premier tight end in Jimmy Graham. Nobody caught more
touchdowns this season than Graham, who hauled in 16. Payton also makes up for
a below average ground attack with a deadly array of screen passes that Brees executes to perfection.
NEW ORLEANS 28-24.
NFL WILDCARDS
*Indianapolis over Kansas City by 7
There was a sneak preview of this matchup only two weeks ago and Indianapolis
won, 23-7, at Kansas City. The key question is has anything changed from then?
Not likely. The Colts didn't just win they dominated. Indianapolis not only held
Kansas City to one score, but recorded four sacks, picked off Alex Smith twice and
stopped the Colts on eight of nine third down attempts. Now the Colts are at
Lucas Oil Stadium where they went 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS this season and are 13-3 SU,
12-4 ATS during the two-year Andrew Luck era. The Colts received their playoff
baptism last season in Luck's rookie season. Kansas City last made the playoffs during
the 2010 season. The Chiefs covered seven of their eight road games, but are
an outdoor grass team that will be playing in a dome for the first time this season.
They lack Indy's playoff experience as new coach Andy Reid has turned over much
of the roster. The Chiefs have feasted on weak teams and their defense has
declined. If you discount their Week 14 game against the hapless Redskins, the
Chiefs have surrendered 184 points in their last six games, which comes out to
30.6 points per game. Kansas City peaked during September and October. The
only teams they have managed to beat during their last six games are Oakland and
Washington. Since their bye in Week 10 and discounting the Redskins game, the
Chiefs have managed only a combined five sacks in six games. That's not going to
cut it against Luck, an elite talent. By contrast, Colts star pass rusher Robert
Mathis led the NFL in sacks with 19.5 and forced eight fumbles. The Chiefs
haven't beaten a top team all season while the Colts knocked of three of the best
teams in the NFL – Denver, San Francisco and Seattle – while proving they can
win in a shootout or in a physical battle. The best team the Chiefs defeated was the
Eagles. Their other victories came against all non-playoff teams - Jaguars,
Cowboys, Giants, Titans, Raiders twice, Texans, Browns, Bills and Redskins. A big
part of Kansas City's success was a plus 22 turnover ratio. Turnovers are hard to
predict, but the Colts were plus 13 in takeaways/giveaways. The Colts committed
the fewest turnovers in the league losing the ball just 14 times. Jamaal Charles is a
magnificent talent. But even with Charles producing a strong game, the Chiefs
managed only seven points against the Colts. Smith is just a glorified game manager,
not the playmaker Luck is. Quarterback matters the most, especially when it
comes to the playoffs. Also, Smith's top downfield threat, Dwayne Bowe, missed
last Sunday with a concussion.
INDIANAPOLIS 27-20.
New Orleans over *Philadelphia by 4
The Saints' road woes are well documented. Still, we're talking about an underdog
that has a top-three quarterback and a much superior defense. Rarely do you find
those kind of pluses when taking points. Keep in mind, too, that while the Saints
own a losing road record, the Eagles didn't post a winning home mark.
Philadelphia also is 3-10-1 ATS the past 14 times when taking on opponents with
an overall winning record. Nick Foles has an insane 27-to-2 touchdown-to-interception
ratio. But the Saints have Drew Brees, who doesn't exactly have shady
quarterback numbers either with a 39-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Do
you want Brees or Foles, who is unproven in the postseason, going for you? Our
clear choice is Brees. No knock on Foles and LeSean McCoy, who led the league
in rushing with 1,607 yards and set a team record with 2,146 yards from scrimmage.
It's just a question of trust. The Eagles are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 26 games
at Lincoln Financial Field. They won four games last season. Chip Kelly came from
Oregon, build an exciting offense and took advantage of a terrible division. Now
the Eagles have a chance to win their first playoff game since 2008. The Saints
annually make the postseason under Sean Payton and have a Super Bowl title in
their collection. We like Kelly. We like Foles. We just trust Payton and Brees more.
This is especially so given the Saints' defensive superiority. Rob Ryan should be
defensive coordinator of the year for straightening out a huge mess. The Saints
ranked fourth defensively in fewest yards allowed per game at 305.7 and also were
No. 4 in fewest points given up at 305.7. Foles was lucky enough to face soft NFC
East Division defenses. Now he has to deal with Ryan's various blitzes. On the flip
side, the Eagles were terrible defensively in 2012 and they weren't that much better
this season ranking 29th in total defense yielding 394 per game. That's nearly
90 yards per game more than New Orleans. Yes, the Saints are one-dimensional.
They can't run the ball. In today's NFL, which so favors passing and is skewed
toward offense, that's not necessarily a fatal flaw. The Saints can get away with this
facing an Eagles secondary that ranked dead last in pass defense surrendering
almost 290 yards passing per game. Brees not only has a deep set of wide receiving
threats, but also the premier tight end in Jimmy Graham. Nobody caught more
touchdowns this season than Graham, who hauled in 16. Payton also makes up for
a below average ground attack with a deadly array of screen passes that Brees executes to perfection.
NEW ORLEANS 28-24.
FYI: 8 up-to-date newsletters are available in the Newsletter Thread in the Rubber Room
Andre Gomes
NFL Wild Card - 101 Kansas City Chiefs @ 102 Indianapolis Colts
***FREE Premium Play***
I expect this contest to be a low scoring game due to the nature of both team’s offensive mindsets and their improved defenses going to today’s matchup.
It’s no secret that KC will try to establish their running game w/ Jamal Charles and control the flow of the game w/ Alex Smith. Meanwhile, the Colts are also a run-heavy oriented team, although lately they are more a pass-control offensive team. Both teams simply don’t want to commit Turnovers and they were great during the regular season in this department w/ IND ranked #1 w/ 0.88 TO/game while IND was #2 w/ 1.12 TO/game.
The h2h between these two teams a couple of weeks ago was exactly decided in the TO battle, because the Colts played a free game, while KC committed a season high 4 TO’s that prevented them to control the clock (only 21:40 vs. 38:20 from IND) and naturally they lost the game.
After some bizarre and humiliating losses against inferior level teams, the Colts played better down the stretch and it was their defense the main catalyst for such improved play as they have allowed only 3, 7 and 10 pts L3 games.
KC defense had a natural letdown in the last weeks as their competition got stronger, but I it’s impossible to ignore the fact that two of their best defensive players Tamba Hali and Justin Houston got injured. The good news is that both will play today and so, we can expect a KC improved defense on the field that had basically two weeks to prepare for today’s game.
With two offenses focused in not committing TO’s and manage the game & two improved defenses, I feel that we are dealing w/ an inflated totals line and that’s why I’m taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 101/102 Under 46 @ -110 / 1.91 on BetOnline
NFL Wild Card - 101 Kansas City Chiefs @ 102 Indianapolis Colts
***FREE Premium Play***
I expect this contest to be a low scoring game due to the nature of both team’s offensive mindsets and their improved defenses going to today’s matchup.
It’s no secret that KC will try to establish their running game w/ Jamal Charles and control the flow of the game w/ Alex Smith. Meanwhile, the Colts are also a run-heavy oriented team, although lately they are more a pass-control offensive team. Both teams simply don’t want to commit Turnovers and they were great during the regular season in this department w/ IND ranked #1 w/ 0.88 TO/game while IND was #2 w/ 1.12 TO/game.
The h2h between these two teams a couple of weeks ago was exactly decided in the TO battle, because the Colts played a free game, while KC committed a season high 4 TO’s that prevented them to control the clock (only 21:40 vs. 38:20 from IND) and naturally they lost the game.
After some bizarre and humiliating losses against inferior level teams, the Colts played better down the stretch and it was their defense the main catalyst for such improved play as they have allowed only 3, 7 and 10 pts L3 games.
KC defense had a natural letdown in the last weeks as their competition got stronger, but I it’s impossible to ignore the fact that two of their best defensive players Tamba Hali and Justin Houston got injured. The good news is that both will play today and so, we can expect a KC improved defense on the field that had basically two weeks to prepare for today’s game.
With two offenses focused in not committing TO’s and manage the game & two improved defenses, I feel that we are dealing w/ an inflated totals line and that’s why I’m taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 101/102 Under 46 @ -110 / 1.91 on BetOnline
