David Malinsky
4* MISSISSIPPI STATE over GEORGIA
Last Sunday we cashed an easy 5* ticket behind Mississippi State, nothing how Rick Stansbury’s team was going to be among the toughest for the oddsmakers to deal with in the weeks ahead. This is more of the same – a marketplace that is anchored down by mathematical power ratings is filled with gibberish that does not apply to the current team in any way.
Yes, if you lose to East Tennessee State and Florida Atlantic at home, and get trounced by 31 vs. Virginia Tech, 26 vs. Washington State and 22 vs. St. Mary’s, you should be around this line range. But those games carry no meaning - Dee Bost and Renardo Sidney were not together on the court yet. Bost did not play at all before SEC play, and Sidney only 25 minutes, and while there was an ugly clunker vs. Alabama in the league opener, since then they have shattered the spread by 26 points in a pair of wins and covers. Bost has scored 48 points, grabbed 12 rebounds and dished out 21 assists in his three games since returning, while Sidney produced 39 points and 11 rebounds in 58 mintues of the last two. Add them to holdover veterans Ravern Johnson and Kodi Augustus, and you have a team that is tournament-worthy once again, although those early defeats may wreck their resume. And in terms of toughness for this kind of setting, note that the Bost-Augustus-Johnson trio has led them to an 8-4 ATS tally as SEC road dogs the past three seasons.
Georgia has excellent front-line talent, but the Bulldogs are going to do a lot of “grinding” this season, lacking the depth to build margins vs. this class. They have been out-scored by 28 points in losing all three meetings vs. State the past two seasons, and this line does not reflect at all the true balance of power between the programs.
4* MISSISSIPPI STATE over GEORGIA
Last Sunday we cashed an easy 5* ticket behind Mississippi State, nothing how Rick Stansbury’s team was going to be among the toughest for the oddsmakers to deal with in the weeks ahead. This is more of the same – a marketplace that is anchored down by mathematical power ratings is filled with gibberish that does not apply to the current team in any way.
Yes, if you lose to East Tennessee State and Florida Atlantic at home, and get trounced by 31 vs. Virginia Tech, 26 vs. Washington State and 22 vs. St. Mary’s, you should be around this line range. But those games carry no meaning - Dee Bost and Renardo Sidney were not together on the court yet. Bost did not play at all before SEC play, and Sidney only 25 minutes, and while there was an ugly clunker vs. Alabama in the league opener, since then they have shattered the spread by 26 points in a pair of wins and covers. Bost has scored 48 points, grabbed 12 rebounds and dished out 21 assists in his three games since returning, while Sidney produced 39 points and 11 rebounds in 58 mintues of the last two. Add them to holdover veterans Ravern Johnson and Kodi Augustus, and you have a team that is tournament-worthy once again, although those early defeats may wreck their resume. And in terms of toughness for this kind of setting, note that the Bost-Augustus-Johnson trio has led them to an 8-4 ATS tally as SEC road dogs the past three seasons.
Georgia has excellent front-line talent, but the Bulldogs are going to do a lot of “grinding” this season, lacking the depth to build margins vs. this class. They have been out-scored by 28 points in losing all three meetings vs. State the past two seasons, and this line does not reflect at all the true balance of power between the programs.
