NITE OWL SPORTS
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints - Saturday January 16, 2010 4:30 pm
Pick: 3 units ATS: Arizona Cardinals +7 (-110)
We’ve read for years all of this crap about playoff teams playing at home off a bye week against a team that played and won the week before having a big advantage, especially if their opponent won on the road. And we recall once about 10-15 years ago when former LA Rams Head Coach George Allen had all the “talking heads’ at ESPN nodding in agreement as he lectured them about how important it was for playoff teams to get that extra week off, to rest and “heal” before resuming battle in the playoffs, and he predicted that all four “rested” home teams in the second round would “win easily.” Well guess what? Not only did none of those four rested home faves cover ATS, none of them even won SU. And we don’t buy into that “extra rest BS” now any more than we did 20 years ago (which was not at all). Instead, we believe that both positive and negative momentum are much more significant, especially in this round. And this WE, AZ clearly has a ton of positive momentum and confidence after their thrilling OT win over a GB team that had “trashed them in Phoenix the week before, in a game that the Pack obviously cared more about than the Cards, who had nothing to gain (except injuries) with a win in that final regular season game., On the other hand, the NO Saints still appear to be in “no man’s land,” momentum wise, after losing their “perfect” (to that point) season three weeks ago with a home loss to a Dallas team that is suddenly victorious in “playoff time” TY, followed by a “no show’ the following week, a shocking OT loss AT HOME to the lowly Tampa Bay Bucs, one of their three wins TY. And no momentum was regained in losing their regular season finale at Carolina, a game where Saints’ HC Sean Payton decided to rest most of his starters and protect them from injury. And while we have no doubt that the NO players are more healthy now than they have been in awhile, this team has totally lost all of the positive momentum they had earlier in the season, which they started out like a house on fire, putting up numbers and racking up ATS covers that rivaled the 2007 New England Patriots. But they peaked too soon, especially on offense, having scored 40> points on four of their first six opponents, but not reaching the 40 point mark the rest of the season. And since week 13, they have failed to even get to 27 over the last four weeks. But like NE in 2007, the Saints’ troubles at the ‘pay window” actually started in mid-season, as after week six, the Saints went just 2-8 ATS! Sound familiar? In 2007, NE was everybody’s point spread darling in September and October, going 8-0 ATS in the first half of the season, with no point spread to large of an obstacle for them, but then cooled off along with the NE weather in November, going just 2-6 ATS in the second half of the season, followed by a money-burning 0-3 ATS in the playoffs. And now that NO offense which was so productive early in the season, but fell off after the mid-point in the season and dramatically in the last quarter of the season, tries to re-create that early season “magic,” after three weeks of not having any competitive action. And as most astute sports cappers know, and the betting public was reminded by NE in 2007, momentum is best built up naturally over time, and is very difficult to turn on “with a switch.”
But if any team can “flip the momentum switch” for the playoffs, it has to be the Arizona Cardinals, who played with only moderate success in a weak division the last two years, but have ‘turned it on” vs. the top teams, LY at home vs. Dallas, and TY vs. Minnesota, again at home. And LY they rode three straight playoff upset wins (two at home and one away) into the Super Bowl, which they were 30 seconds and a spectacular catch (by Steeler WR Hines Ward) away from victorious “the big one” as well. The Cards recently have been “money in the bank” as underdogs, as they are now a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 in that role, and 8-2 straight-up as well in those same ten games! Moreover, the Cards have improved significantly TY over LY on the road, TY going an impressive 6-2 SU away this season, and giving up just 17 points per game in those 8 roadies. But looking at their road record TY, they played nobody even close to the Saints’ talent level, and LY they were 1-2-1 ATS away vs playoff caliber teams, with their only SU and ATS win out of the four being that playoff game in Carolina which was “gift-wrapped” for them by Panther QB “shaky Jake” Delhomme, who tossed five INTs, three in the 1H, as Cards bolted to a 20 point HT lead on their way to that 33-13 “upset” win. So we are not totally sold on Cards in this road dog role, especially given that these two teams hooked up in the Superdome not that long ago, in December 2007, with NO coming away with a 7 point win and ATS cover as 4 point faves. And in that game, the “numbers” were pretty even, with the main differences being that Brees threw for about 80 more YP than Warner, and AZ was penalized ten times for 78 yards, compared to just 3 for 15 yards for NO (some Creole home cooking?).
Bottom line, AZ and veteran QB Curt Warner (who has played in 3 Super Bowls and is as good as it comes in crunch time) are more experienced in the playoffs than the Saints and Drew Brees (just two playoff games L2Y, at end of 2006 season, and 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS in those two), and Cards have proven they can win playoffs games, but keep in mind that all of those playoff wins but one were at home, not on the road in front of a throng of noisy hostile fans like the Superdome is sure to have for this game. So while we like Saints’ QB Drew Brees as a “clutch” performer, the Saints seem to have more question marks here than Arizona. And it will be interesting to see if Kurt Warner can outperform Drew Brees here and lead his team to another playoff victory. While we have not yet decided if we will take the Cards and the big plus ML odds to win this game SU, we will take them ATS with this comfy 7 point “cushion,” knowing that AZ is 15-6 ATS over the past three seasons vs. victorious teams, including 8-1 ATS vs. top teams (those with a W-L record of .750 or better).
So based on the above, we’ll take the Cards and the 7 points here for 3 units.
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints - Saturday January 16, 2010 4:30 pm
Pick: 3 units ATS: Arizona Cardinals +7 (-110)
We’ve read for years all of this crap about playoff teams playing at home off a bye week against a team that played and won the week before having a big advantage, especially if their opponent won on the road. And we recall once about 10-15 years ago when former LA Rams Head Coach George Allen had all the “talking heads’ at ESPN nodding in agreement as he lectured them about how important it was for playoff teams to get that extra week off, to rest and “heal” before resuming battle in the playoffs, and he predicted that all four “rested” home teams in the second round would “win easily.” Well guess what? Not only did none of those four rested home faves cover ATS, none of them even won SU. And we don’t buy into that “extra rest BS” now any more than we did 20 years ago (which was not at all). Instead, we believe that both positive and negative momentum are much more significant, especially in this round. And this WE, AZ clearly has a ton of positive momentum and confidence after their thrilling OT win over a GB team that had “trashed them in Phoenix the week before, in a game that the Pack obviously cared more about than the Cards, who had nothing to gain (except injuries) with a win in that final regular season game., On the other hand, the NO Saints still appear to be in “no man’s land,” momentum wise, after losing their “perfect” (to that point) season three weeks ago with a home loss to a Dallas team that is suddenly victorious in “playoff time” TY, followed by a “no show’ the following week, a shocking OT loss AT HOME to the lowly Tampa Bay Bucs, one of their three wins TY. And no momentum was regained in losing their regular season finale at Carolina, a game where Saints’ HC Sean Payton decided to rest most of his starters and protect them from injury. And while we have no doubt that the NO players are more healthy now than they have been in awhile, this team has totally lost all of the positive momentum they had earlier in the season, which they started out like a house on fire, putting up numbers and racking up ATS covers that rivaled the 2007 New England Patriots. But they peaked too soon, especially on offense, having scored 40> points on four of their first six opponents, but not reaching the 40 point mark the rest of the season. And since week 13, they have failed to even get to 27 over the last four weeks. But like NE in 2007, the Saints’ troubles at the ‘pay window” actually started in mid-season, as after week six, the Saints went just 2-8 ATS! Sound familiar? In 2007, NE was everybody’s point spread darling in September and October, going 8-0 ATS in the first half of the season, with no point spread to large of an obstacle for them, but then cooled off along with the NE weather in November, going just 2-6 ATS in the second half of the season, followed by a money-burning 0-3 ATS in the playoffs. And now that NO offense which was so productive early in the season, but fell off after the mid-point in the season and dramatically in the last quarter of the season, tries to re-create that early season “magic,” after three weeks of not having any competitive action. And as most astute sports cappers know, and the betting public was reminded by NE in 2007, momentum is best built up naturally over time, and is very difficult to turn on “with a switch.”
But if any team can “flip the momentum switch” for the playoffs, it has to be the Arizona Cardinals, who played with only moderate success in a weak division the last two years, but have ‘turned it on” vs. the top teams, LY at home vs. Dallas, and TY vs. Minnesota, again at home. And LY they rode three straight playoff upset wins (two at home and one away) into the Super Bowl, which they were 30 seconds and a spectacular catch (by Steeler WR Hines Ward) away from victorious “the big one” as well. The Cards recently have been “money in the bank” as underdogs, as they are now a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 in that role, and 8-2 straight-up as well in those same ten games! Moreover, the Cards have improved significantly TY over LY on the road, TY going an impressive 6-2 SU away this season, and giving up just 17 points per game in those 8 roadies. But looking at their road record TY, they played nobody even close to the Saints’ talent level, and LY they were 1-2-1 ATS away vs playoff caliber teams, with their only SU and ATS win out of the four being that playoff game in Carolina which was “gift-wrapped” for them by Panther QB “shaky Jake” Delhomme, who tossed five INTs, three in the 1H, as Cards bolted to a 20 point HT lead on their way to that 33-13 “upset” win. So we are not totally sold on Cards in this road dog role, especially given that these two teams hooked up in the Superdome not that long ago, in December 2007, with NO coming away with a 7 point win and ATS cover as 4 point faves. And in that game, the “numbers” were pretty even, with the main differences being that Brees threw for about 80 more YP than Warner, and AZ was penalized ten times for 78 yards, compared to just 3 for 15 yards for NO (some Creole home cooking?).
Bottom line, AZ and veteran QB Curt Warner (who has played in 3 Super Bowls and is as good as it comes in crunch time) are more experienced in the playoffs than the Saints and Drew Brees (just two playoff games L2Y, at end of 2006 season, and 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS in those two), and Cards have proven they can win playoffs games, but keep in mind that all of those playoff wins but one were at home, not on the road in front of a throng of noisy hostile fans like the Superdome is sure to have for this game. So while we like Saints’ QB Drew Brees as a “clutch” performer, the Saints seem to have more question marks here than Arizona. And it will be interesting to see if Kurt Warner can outperform Drew Brees here and lead his team to another playoff victory. While we have not yet decided if we will take the Cards and the big plus ML odds to win this game SU, we will take them ATS with this comfy 7 point “cushion,” knowing that AZ is 15-6 ATS over the past three seasons vs. victorious teams, including 8-1 ATS vs. top teams (those with a W-L record of .750 or better).
So based on the above, we’ll take the Cards and the 7 points here for 3 units.
