Al DeMarco
Saturday's Play
5 Dime - LA Lakers
Interesting line in tonight's game. Los Angeles toys with Utah in Games One and Two at home and in Thursday's Game Three is only a 1 1/2 to 2-point favorite. The Lakers rally from 10 points down early, blow a 13-point, third-quarter lead, and end up losing 88-86. Yet tonight in Game Four, the oddsmakers have price LA at around 4 1/2 points.
As I've noted many times here and in media appearances, the biggest mistake gamblers make is how they perceive lines. Always keep in mind the linemakers want two-sided action on the game; that's how they maximize their earnings. Obviously, the public is going to be on Los Angeles today because A) they're the Lakers and B) they're the favorite and basic human nature finds us always leaning toward the chalk. But clearly the oddsmakers are begging you, enticing you, to take the Jazz by dangling those generous points, nearly 2 1/2 more than Utah got in Game Three, a game it won.
With the exception of Lamar Odom (21 points, 14 rebounds) and Pau Gasol (20 points, 9 rebounds), the Lakers were awful in Game Three. Kobe shot 5-for-24 from the floor and scored only 18 points. Andrew Bynum (4 points, 2 rebounds) was nearly invisible, playing just seven minutes because of foul trouble. As a team, LA shot just 36.8% and got crushed on the boards 55-40.
All that being said, the Jazz needed a Deron Williams' jumper with 2.2 seconds to play and a monster game from Carlos Boozer (23 points, 22 rebounds) to escape with the home win.
There's a reason I stay away, generally speaking, from the third game of an NBA playoff series -- especially those where the road team is already up 2-0. I want to see how the favorite, the Lakers in this case, and the team playing in desperation, obviously the Jazz here, respond. But more importantly, I want to see how the game plays out so I can get an edge in Game Four.
The same way the oddsmakers are betting on the public being unable to resist the lure of those 4 1/2 points being dangled in their direction, I'm willing to bet that Kobe doesn't shoot 5-for-24 again, that the Lakers don't get hammered as badly on the boards (yes, they will get outrebounded, but not by 15), and LA realizes it does not want to have this series extended any further than need be with a tough Western Conference playoff schedule ahead of it.
The Jazz were a team that rarely played with much heart this season against favored opponents. They had a heartbeat on Thursday. I'm betting that even with the possible return of Mehmet Okur, who has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury, Utah is sent back to the critical care unit tonight by a decisive LA victory.