THE SPORTS ADVISORS
EAST REGION
(at Greensboro, N.C.)
(7) Texas (23-11, 12-18-1 ATS) vs. (2) Duke (29-6, 17-16-1 ATS)
Duke drubbed 15th-seeded Binghamton 86-62 to open the tournament Thursday, narrowly covering as a heavy 23½-point chalk. The Blue Devils had six players reach double-figure scoring, paced by Jon Scheyer’s 15 points, and they were particularly effective from 3-point range, going 9-for-20 (45 percent). Duke also nearly doubled up Binghamton on the glass, with a 35-18 rebounding edge, improving to 9-1 SU (6-4 ATS) in its last 10 starts.
Texas topped Minnesota 76-62 laying 4½ points Thursday, covering for the first time in its last five games (1-3-1 ATS). The Longhorns were even more effective than Duke with the long ball, racking up 33 points on 11-for-20 shooting (55 percent), with A.J. Abrams connecting on eight 3-pointers en route to 26 points. Despite the win and cover, though, Texas is still just 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 games.
Duke is 3-0 SU and ATS in three meetings this decade with Texas, winning all three by at least 26 points, including a 97-66 pounding as a 2½-point home chalk in December 2005.
Duke, in its 33rd NCAA Tournament, bowed out in the second round last year with a 73-67 loss to West Virginia as a four-point favorite – a year after getting shocked in the first round by Virginia Commonwealth – so the Blue Devils are looking to get a second NCAA win for the first time since 2006. Texas, on its 26th NCAA trip, is now 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) in its last five tourney starts, having reached the Elite Eight last year.
Despite Thursday’s effort, the Blue Devils are still on ATS slides of 2-8 in the NCAAs and 2-9 as a chalk in the Big Dance, but they sport positive pointspread streaks of 6-2 after a SU win and 5-2 at neutral sites. The Longhorns remain in ATS ruts of 4-10-1 overall, 2-12 after a spread-cover, 1-5 getting points and 7-19-2 after a SU win.
Favorites went 10-6 SU but just 5-10-1 ATS on Friday, giving the chalks a 22-10 SU mark for the first round, but the underdogs went 19-12-1 ATS.
The under for Duke is on tears of 10-3 at neutral sites, 9-3 with the Blue Devils a Tournament favorite and 13-6 after a SU win. On the flip side, the over for Texas is on runs of 4-0 in the Tournament, 8-0-1 with the ‘Horns a neutral-site pup, 5-1 against the ACC and 7-2 following a SU win.
The under was 10-5-1 in Friday’s games and is 16-15-1 through the first round.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE
EAST REGION
(at Philadelphia)
(6) UCLA (26-8, 16-16-1 ATS) vs. (3) Villanova (27-7, 16-14 ATS)
Villanova, playing ostensibly home games this weekend at the Wachovia Center, got all it could handle from 14th-seeded American in the opening round Thursday. The Wildcats fell behind by 14 points before rallying in the second half for an 80-67 victory, falling just short as a 15-point chalk. Dante Cunningham and Dwayne Anderson each scored 25, but Villanova failed to cover for the third straight game and is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 starts (7-3 SU).
UCLA was on the brink of speedy elimination until Virginia Commonwealth’s Eric Maynor came up short on a last-second jumper, giving the Bruins a 65-64 win laying 8½-points. Josh Shipp (16 points) led five players in double figures for UCLA, which hit 17 of 19 free throws (89.5 percent) to improve to 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games.
These two programs played a home-and-home in 2001 and 2002, with the home team winning each time and UCLA going 1-0-1 ATS.
Villanova, in its 29th NCAA tourney, will look to reach the third round for the second straight year today, having beaten Siena 84-72 as a 5½-point favorite in the second round last year. UCLA, on its 43rd NCAA trip, is seeking its fourth consecutive trip to the Final Four. Last year, the Bruins escaped the second round with a 51-49 win over Texas A&M as a 9½-point chalk.
The Wildcats are still 10-5 ATS in their last 15 starts against winning teams, but they are on ATS dips of 2-6 at neutral sites (0-4 this year), 1-6 as a Tournament chalk and 2-7 overall in the Tournament. The Bruins are on a 23-9-1 run in their last 32 starts from the underdog role, but they are on pointspread purges of 0-4-1 after a non-cover, 1-4 in the Tournament and 2-5-1 against winning teams.
The over for Villanova is on rolls of 9-4 overall, 8-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 7-2 as a neutral-site chalk, and the over for UCLA is on runs of 13-4 overall, 5-0 with the Bruins a ‘dog and 8-3 after a SU win. However, the under is 8-1 in the Wildcats’ last nine non-conference outings, 4-1 in the Bruins’ last five on neutral floors and 9-3 in UCLA’s last 12 games against Big East foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA
SOUTH REGION
(at Greensboro, N.C.)
(8) LSU (27-7, 14-12-1 ATS) vs. (1) North Carolina (29-4, 12-19-0 ATS)
North Carolina was without star guard Ty Lawson (toe) for its NCAA opener, but still rumbled to a 101-58 win over Radcliffe laying 25 points, snapping a four-game ATS slide. Wayne Ellington and Tyler Hansbrough had 25 and 22 points, respectively, and Danny Green doubled up with 15 points and 10 rebounds for the Tar Heels, who covered for just the second time in their last nine starts – all from the favorite’s role.
LSU held off No. 9 seed Butler 75-71 to cover as a 1½-point favorite, halting a 1-3 SU and ATS skid in the process. Marcus Thornton went off for 30 points on 10-for-15 shooting (3-for-4 from 3-point range) and added six rebounds, four assists and four steals for the Tigers, who shot nearly seven percent better than the Bulldogs (49.1 percent-42.3 percent).
North Carolina, playing in the Big Dance for the 41st time, is pursuing its second straight Final Four berth. Last year, the Heels won their first four NCAA starts SU and ATS, including a 108-77 second-round blitzing of Arkansas as a 9½-point favorite. LSU, which missed the Tournament the past two years, is looking to reach the second week after getting to the Final Four in 2006.
The Tar Heels remain on ATS dives of 1-10 after a spread-cover, 1-7 against winning teams and 4-17 following a SU win, but they carry positive ATS streaks of 8-0 against the SEC, 5-1 in the NCAAs, 7-3 at neutral sites and 41-18 outside the ACC. The Tigers, meanwhile, are on pointspread skids of 2-7 on neutral courts, 11-30-1 on Saturday, 2-5 after a SU win and 4-9 in non-conference action.
The over for Carolina is on streaks of 9-4 after a SU win, 12-5-1 after a spread-cover and 6-2 against the SEC, and the over for LSU is on rolls of 4-0 outside the SEC, 4-1 after a SU win, 12-4 after a spread-cover and 8-3 on neutral floors.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER
SOUTH REGION
(at Kansas City, Mo.)
(10) Michigan (21-13, 16-11 ATS) vs. (2) Oklahoma (28-5, 14-13-1 ATS)
Oklahoma shook off a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS skid to rip Morgan State 82-54 Thursday in the first round, easily covering as a 15-point favorite to halt a three-game pointspread dip. Double-double stud Blake Griffin had 28 points and 13 rebounds on 11-for-12 shooting as the Sooners hit a scorching 60.4 percent from the floor (29 of 48), while holding the Bears to a dismal 28.6 percent (22-for-77).
Michigan got the mini-upset over seventh-seeded Clemson with a 62-59 victory as a 4½-point underdog, giving the Wolverines a 5-1 ATS mark (4-2 SU) in their last six games. Michigan got whipped on the boards (40-28), giving up 20 offensive rebounds, but the Wolverines hit 10 of their 26 3-pointers and held the Tigers to just 32.3 percent shooting, including 5 of 22 from long distance (22.7 percent).
These two teams last met in the second round of the 2004 NIT, with Michigan winning 63-52 as a 3½-point home favorite.
Oklahoma is in its 26th NCAA Tournament and looking to reach the Sweet 16 after getting drubbed in the second round last year, losing to Louisville 78-48 catching seven points. Michigan is just hoping to extend its first NCAA appearance since 1998, when the Wolverines bowed out in the second round.
Despite the Sooners’ effort Thursday, they are still mired in ATS funks of 2-5 overall, 1-5 against winning teams, 8-19 on neutral courts and 6-13 as a neutral-site chalk. The Wolverines have gone 3-7 ATS in their last 10 starts as a neutral-court pup, but along with their current 5-1 ATS run, they are on pointspread upswings of 4-0 outside the Big Ten, 5-1 against winning teams and 4-1 getting points.
The under has hit in Michigan’s last three starts and is on further rolls of 12-5-1 overall, 7-0 on neutral floors, 7-2 after a SU win, 16-5-1 with the Wolverines a ‘dog and 6-0 with the Wolverines a neutral-site pup.
Likewise, the under for Oklahoma is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 8-3-1 at neutral sites and 5-1 with the Sooners a neutral-floor chalk, but the over is on runs of 11-5-1 in Oklahoma’s last 17 non-conference starts and 9-4 with the Sooners favored.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
SOUTH REGION
(at Portland, Ore.)
(12) W. Kentucky (25-8, 17-12-1 ATS) vs. (4) Gonzaga (27-5, 15-14 ATS)
Western Kentucky sprung the seemingly annual 12-5 upset, holding off Illinois 76-72 Thursday as a 5½-point ‘dog to move to 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games. The Hilltoppers hit 9 of 19 3-pointers (47.4 percent), compared with 5 of 18 for Illinois (27.8 percent), and had five players in double-figure scoring, led by Steffphon Pettigrew’s 17 points. Western Kentucky also beat the Illini on the boards 35-28, including 9-4 on the offensive end.
Gonzaga got pushed around into the second half against Akron before finally taking control with a 24-4 run en route to a 77-64 victory, narrowly failing to cover as a 13½-point chalk but improving to 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) at neutral sites this season. Forward Josh Heytvelt finished with 22 points and eight rebounds, and the Bulldogs shot 52.3 percent for the game while holding the Zips to just 36.8 percent.
These two teams got together early last season, with Gonzaga eking out a 74-71 home win but Western Kentucky getting the cash as a six-point pup.
The Zags are in their 12th Tournament, shaking off one-and-done performances in each of their past two NCAA appearances to reach the second round for the first time since 2006, when they picked up two wins to earn a Sweet 16 berth. Western Kentucky, in its 21st Tournament, is looking to reach the third round for the second straight year, as it won a pair of games in 2008 before falling to UCLA in the round of 16.
The Hilltoppers are on several ATS hot streaks, including 6-0 overall, 5-0 in the Tournament, 17-5 on neutral courts, 6-1 as a neutral-site ‘dog, 20-7-1 against winning teams and 41-17-1 outside the Sun Belt Conference. On the flip side, the Bulldogs are on pointspread purges of 2-7 in the NCAAs, 1-5 as a Tournament favorite, 1-6 in non-conference action and 4-10 against winning teams.
The under for Western Kentucky is on a 4-1 run, but the over is on rolls of 5-1 with the Hilltoppers a neutral-site pup and 4-1 with the ‘Toppers a Tournament ‘dog. In addition, the over for Gonzaga is on streaks of 7-2 overall, 5-1 in the Tournament and 6-2 after a SU win. Plus, both these team’s first-round games cleared the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WESTERN KENTUCKY and OVER
WEST REGION
(at Kansas City, Mo.)
(10) Maryland (21-13, 16-10-2 ATS) vs. (2) Memphis (32-3, 22-12 ATS)
Memphis stretched the nation’s longest active winning streak to 26 games, but with much more of a fight than it expected in an 81-70 victory over Cal State-Northridge as a 20-point chalk. The Tigers led by just three at the half and needed a monster game from reserve guard Roburt Sallie, who had averaged just 4.5 ppg, but hit 10 of 15 3-pointers on his way to a 35-point effort against the Matadors. Memphis had held four straight opponents under 50 points prior to Thursday, and it was the first time in nearly a month that the Tigers gave up more than 60 points.
Maryland dropped seventh-seeded California 84-71 Thursday as a 1½-point pup, notching its fourth straight spread-cover (3-1 ATS) after a 2-4 SU and ATS skid. Greivis Vasquez led the way with 27 points as four Terrapins scored in double figures, and Maryland outshot the Golden Bears by nearly seven percent, going 31 of 63 from the floor (49.2 percent), while holding Cal to 25 of 59 from the field (42.4 percent).
These two squads haven’t squared off since November 2004, when Maryland earned an 84-61 rout as a 3½-point home favorite.
Memphis, which brought the nation’s fourth-ranked defense to its 22nd NCAA Tournament, reached the national championship game last year before falling short to Kansas in overtime. The Tigers have made it to at least the Elite Eight each of the last three years. Maryland, in its 23rd Tournament after missing out last year, looks to get past the second round, where it lost to Butler in 2007.
Despite failing to cash Thursday, the Tigers remain on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 14-5 overall, 5-1 in non-conference play, 11-3 against winning teams, 14-5 after a SU win and 5-0 after a non-cover. Likewise, the Terrapins are on pointspread rolls of 4-0 overall, 5-0 on neutral floors, 4-1 catching points and 8-3-2 in non-conference action.
The over is on a 7-1 tear for Memphis in NCAA Tournament play, and the over was the play in the first-round game for both these teams. But the under for the Tigers is on streaks of 19-7 overall, 8-1 after a SU win, 4-1 on neutral courts and 5-2 outside Conference USA, and the under for the Terps is on pushes of 6-2 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 5-1 with Maryland a ‘dog and 7-2 at neutral sites.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MEMPHIS and UNDER
WEST REGION
(at Philadelphia)
(9) Texas A&M (24-9, 16-9 ATS) vs. (1) Connecticut (28-4, 13-15 ATS)
UConn, playing its first game since suffering a heartbreaking six-overtime loss to Syracuse in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament on March 12, completely annihilated Chattanooga 103-47 as a 20½-point favorite for its first postseason win in three years. With coach Jim Calhoun watching from a hospital bed because of an illness, the Huskies outshot the Mocs 52.1 percent to 25.8 percent in posting the third-largest margin of victory in Tournament history.
Texas A&M jumped out to a 26-8 lead against eighth-seeded BYU in Thursday’s first-round contest at the Rose Garden and was never really threatened en route to a 79-66 upset win as a three-point underdog. It marked the second straight year that the Aggies eliminated BYU in a first-round Tournament matchup. Going back to the regular season, A&M has now won seven of its last eight games and is also riding an 11-3 ATS hot streak.
UConn, which is in the Tournament for the 29th time in school history, had lost two straight NCAA Tournament and three consecutive Big East tournament games before Thursday’s blowout win. The Huskies last advanced past the first round of the Big Dance in 2006, when they lost 86-84 to Cinderella story George Mason as an eight-point favorite in the Elite Eight.
Texas A&M, which is in the Tournament for the fourth consecutive year, gave top-seeded UCLA all it could handle in the second round last year but came up short 51-49, cashing as a 9½-point underdog.
UConn had failed to cover in 13 consecutive postseason games before easily getting the cash against Chattanooga, including going 0-7 ATS in the Big Dance (all as a favorite). Still, the Huskies remain on ATS droughts of 3-7 overall, 7-15 in non-conference play, 7-19 at neutral sites, 2-5 as a favorite, 1-4 when laying 7 to 12½ points, 5-16 when favored at neutral venues and 0-5 on Saturday.
In addition to their 11-3 ATS streak overall, the Aggies are on a plethora of positive pointspread runs, including 18-5 at neutral sites, 9-3 in non-conference play, 7-0 as an underdog, 7-1 in the NCAA Tournament, 11-1 as a neutral-site ‘dog, 54-26 against teams with a winning record and 4-0 on Saturday.
Both teams topped the total in their first-round games. Also, the Aggies are now on a 5-0 “over” streak overall, and UConn is on “over” stretches of 20-7 at neutral sites and 5-0 in the NCAA Tournament. However, the under is still 14-7 in the Huskies’ last 21 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M and OVER
WEST REGION
(at Portland, Ore.)
(5) Purdue (26-9, 14-17 ATS) vs. (4) Washington (26-8, 18-11-2 ATS)
Washington dominated 13th-seeded Mississippi State in Thursday’s opening round, rolling 71-58 as a six-point favorite at the Rose Garden. Quincy Pondexter had a game-high 23 points and seven rebounds, and the Huskies held the Bulldogs to just 34.5 percent shooting. They’re now on a 10-2 SU run, going 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11.
Purdue won its 11th consecutive first-round NCAA Tournament game Thursday, holding off frisky Northern Iowa 61-56, but it came up short as an 8½-point favorite. The Boilermakers, who nearly blew a 12-point halftime lead and led by just two points with 17 seconds left, shot only 41.2 percent from the field (3-for-15 from 3-point range), yet still won their fourth in a row. However, Purdue is now just 5-9 ATS in its last 14 outings.
Washington is in its 14th NCAA Tournament but its first since 2006, when it won its first two games before falling to UConn in the Sweet 16. Purdue, whose 11 consecutive first-round tourney wins date back to 1993, have bowed out of the Big Dance in the second round each of the last two years, including last year’s 85-78 loss to Xavier as a 2½-point underdog.
Purdue is in ATS ruts of 2-6 in non-conference play, 1-5 after a SU victory and 1-4 against teams from the Pac-10, but the Boilermakers have cashed in 11 of their last 15 on Saturday and they’re 4-1 ATS in the Tournament as an underdog of less than six points.
Washington is on pointspread runs of 7-3-1 overall, 4-0 in the Tournament, 6-1 in non-conference play, 5-1-1 on Saturday and 4-0 as a favorite at neutral sites.
Despite staying way under the total in Thursday’s win over Mississippi State, the Huskies are still on strong “over” runs of 17-6 overall, 5-1 at neutral sites, 5-3 in the Tournament, 14-3 as a favorite, 9-1 when laying less than seven points, 10-1 after a spread-cover and 14-4 on Saturday.
Purdue’s first-round game also stayed low, making the under 5-1 in its last six non-conference games, but otherwise the Boilermakers are still on “over” streaks of 7-3 at neutral sites, 6-2-1 in the Tournament and 7-2 as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
