INDIAN COWBOY:
4 Unit Play. Take Baylor +5.5 over Missouri (Saturday @ 6pm est). You might be even able to get +6 or even +6.5 if you just wait before the evening tip-off for this game. We are going to ride the coattails of Baylor today. For starters, Baylor is on a mission and they are the darlings of the Refs as well. Why wouldn't they be...lol...they need this game to go to the Dance and they will certainly get all the help from the Big12 who will want them to win this game so they can sneak one more team in. Like I said in the above analysis, that is what is happening with Syracuse, Auburn, Miss. State, USC, Maryland, Temple and everywhere else - this is what conferences do to take their bubble teams and let the rise so they can fit that one to two extra teams in. Baylor is also playing lights out. This team put up 76 points against a Texas team that is known more for defense. The last time these two teams met, yes, Missouri beat this team by double-digits on the road. But, that Baylor team and this Baylor team are different. After all, that Baylor team lost to Kansas by 10 at home, this Baylor team beat Kansas by 7. That Baylor team lost to Nebraska by 4 at home, this Baylor team beat Nebraska by 16 away from home. That Baylor team lost to Texas by 6 at home and 16 on the road and this Baylor team beat Texas by 6 at home. So, please don't tell me what Baylor has done in the regular season as that is irrelevant and what they have done winning as Outright dogs over the last 3 games shows that - This team was +1 against Nebraska, +8 against Kansas and +4.5 against Texas. So, why would we be on Baylor today at +5 with 70% of the public riding Missouri. Missouri is beatable. They have been shaky on the road of late losing to A&M, getting beat by 25 to Kansas on the road, losing to Nebraska on the road earlier this year as well as Kansas State. Yes, this team beat Texas Tech and had a good game against Oklahoma State, but I have Baylor as a 45% shot at an Outright Winner here. Plus, I like the 5.5 points here as that gives us an additional 10% chance of covering according to my spreadsheets and I will gladly take the 55% shaved coin in our favor as we ride the Dog that I believe can win Outright.
4 Unit Play. USC +1.5 over Arizona State (Saturday @ 6pm est). Let's ride Southern Cal in what is a semi-home game on CBS in Staples Arena in Los Angeles. Look, I can give you the long end of the analysis or the short end. The short end is this, the Pac-10 needs another team in there, Southern Cal has the crowd behind them in this contest, will have some home cooking calls, this is why the line is short at +1.5 (if you wait until later in the day you can get +2 or even +2.5) and the public is prime to get buried to a tune of 73%. Arizona State comes off some huge wins, but they did lose to this Southern Cal team earlier in the year by 12 which peole forget on the road. Yes, Arizona State held serve and won by 12 with revenge later in the year at home. Well, guess what, this is not at home. This is on the road, in L.A., at the Staples Center. How else do you think USC made it this far, they are playing basically home games in each one of these tourney games and they are loving it. I like Arizona State as they are a well coached team - but they did loes to Washington on the road in OT, they did lose to Washington State on the road in OT, they did lose to Stanford at home by 10 who is a top 50 team and USC is a top 30 team at that playing a semi-home game. In short, we are fading the public, we are taking the semi-home team, we have the team with the latest revenge angle, Arizona State is "not all that" on the highway this year, and we should get the home calls here as once again the Pac-10 would love to see another one of its teams in and if USC wins here - they roll in and Arizona State is a lock to go to the Dance this year already. Remember when Chattanooga beat App. State for the Southern Conference Championship? This was the same line, the same public percentage. Well, this time, we are on the "potential fix". Yes, I said it. Look for the foul count to be in our favor here. Give me the Trojans who are strong at home to bury the public here.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
4 Unit Play. Take Baylor +5.5 over Missouri (Saturday @ 6pm est). You might be even able to get +6 or even +6.5 if you just wait before the evening tip-off for this game. We are going to ride the coattails of Baylor today. For starters, Baylor is on a mission and they are the darlings of the Refs as well. Why wouldn't they be...lol...they need this game to go to the Dance and they will certainly get all the help from the Big12 who will want them to win this game so they can sneak one more team in. Like I said in the above analysis, that is what is happening with Syracuse, Auburn, Miss. State, USC, Maryland, Temple and everywhere else - this is what conferences do to take their bubble teams and let the rise so they can fit that one to two extra teams in. Baylor is also playing lights out. This team put up 76 points against a Texas team that is known more for defense. The last time these two teams met, yes, Missouri beat this team by double-digits on the road. But, that Baylor team and this Baylor team are different. After all, that Baylor team lost to Kansas by 10 at home, this Baylor team beat Kansas by 7. That Baylor team lost to Nebraska by 4 at home, this Baylor team beat Nebraska by 16 away from home. That Baylor team lost to Texas by 6 at home and 16 on the road and this Baylor team beat Texas by 6 at home. So, please don't tell me what Baylor has done in the regular season as that is irrelevant and what they have done winning as Outright dogs over the last 3 games shows that - This team was +1 against Nebraska, +8 against Kansas and +4.5 against Texas. So, why would we be on Baylor today at +5 with 70% of the public riding Missouri. Missouri is beatable. They have been shaky on the road of late losing to A&M, getting beat by 25 to Kansas on the road, losing to Nebraska on the road earlier this year as well as Kansas State. Yes, this team beat Texas Tech and had a good game against Oklahoma State, but I have Baylor as a 45% shot at an Outright Winner here. Plus, I like the 5.5 points here as that gives us an additional 10% chance of covering according to my spreadsheets and I will gladly take the 55% shaved coin in our favor as we ride the Dog that I believe can win Outright.
4 Unit Play. USC +1.5 over Arizona State (Saturday @ 6pm est). Let's ride Southern Cal in what is a semi-home game on CBS in Staples Arena in Los Angeles. Look, I can give you the long end of the analysis or the short end. The short end is this, the Pac-10 needs another team in there, Southern Cal has the crowd behind them in this contest, will have some home cooking calls, this is why the line is short at +1.5 (if you wait until later in the day you can get +2 or even +2.5) and the public is prime to get buried to a tune of 73%. Arizona State comes off some huge wins, but they did lose to this Southern Cal team earlier in the year by 12 which peole forget on the road. Yes, Arizona State held serve and won by 12 with revenge later in the year at home. Well, guess what, this is not at home. This is on the road, in L.A., at the Staples Center. How else do you think USC made it this far, they are playing basically home games in each one of these tourney games and they are loving it. I like Arizona State as they are a well coached team - but they did loes to Washington on the road in OT, they did lose to Washington State on the road in OT, they did lose to Stanford at home by 10 who is a top 50 team and USC is a top 30 team at that playing a semi-home game. In short, we are fading the public, we are taking the semi-home team, we have the team with the latest revenge angle, Arizona State is "not all that" on the highway this year, and we should get the home calls here as once again the Pac-10 would love to see another one of its teams in and if USC wins here - they roll in and Arizona State is a lock to go to the Dance this year already. Remember when Chattanooga beat App. State for the Southern Conference Championship? This was the same line, the same public percentage. Well, this time, we are on the "potential fix". Yes, I said it. Look for the foul count to be in our favor here. Give me the Trojans who are strong at home to bury the public here.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
I really think thats the only reason we are getting the line value and its in California, not trying to play Mr. Capper, but I was thinking ASU was going to be -4.5 not -1.5
USC did have one hell of a game last night and I was somewhat looking forward to the UCLA Arizona State rematch because I thought we would get excellent value with UCLA, but it didnt happen
Me either, I understand. I was simply agreeing that USC has some great athletes, but a lot of times when it seems every capper is on one team its not too bad of an idea to take the other side and I do find this line low and we had a USC team that played great yesterday and an Arizona State team that really blew the big lead and did not look that good yesterday so we will have to watch this game and see who shows up
Both teams certainly have the ability
