MTi Sports
Minnesota at Portland
Play: Minnesota +13
The Blazers have won seven straight over the Timberwolves, but this is not reason to play on them. Portland is 0-5 ATS (-8.2 ppg) as a home favorite vs any team they beat four straight and 0-4 ATS (-8.8 ppg) at home vs any team they beat six straight.The Trailblazers are off a 106-90 loss to the Nuggets in which they allowed Denver to shoot 53.1% from the field. The loss broke a three-game winning streak which started when Portland beat these Timberwolves 102-82 in Minnesota on 2/27.Unlike many top-echelon teams, the Blazers have a lot of trouble in this spot. Portland is 0-5 ATS at home with at most one day of rest off a loss that broke at least a three-game winning streak. They lost every single game straight up and they have failed to cover by an average of 15.6 ppg. In addition, Portland is 0-7 ATS (-8.3 ppg) as a home favorite with at most one day of rest after a game in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. They won each of their last four straight up in this spot, but the winning margins were 3, 3, 1 and 1 point respectively. It will be a challenge to cover this big number.The Timberwolves shot terribly from the field against the Lakers, but they did make 26 free throws. Since early last November, the T-Wolves are a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road after a game in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line, winning four of the games straight up and covering by an average of 13.1 ppg.Yes, the T-Wolves are on a SU and ATS losing streak. However, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS as a road dog with at most one day of rest when they have lost their last three games SU and ATS and allowed more than 100 points in their last game. In the T-Wolves last game in this spot, they beat the Heat 111-104 getting 9’ in Miami on 2/18.Finally, the Blazers simply can’t maintain their intensity when experiencing a big class drop. This season, the Blazers are 0-4 ATS when their line is at least 12 points lower than it was in the previous game.The pesky T-Wolves will not go easily. Grab the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: PORTLAND 103 Minnesota 101