Craig Davis Saturday's Lineup
30 Dime ---- CALIFORNIA
15 Dime ---- NC STATE
10 Dime ---- UCLA
CALIFORNIA --- I’ve really enjoyed watching this team recently as they seem to be getting production in all the right places at all the right times. It seems that the Pac 10 has become quite an interesting conference as of late, with Washington, UCLA, Arizona State and Cal now in a four-way battle for the top spot and the #1 seed in the conference tourney. Cal has been ultra-impressive in their last two home games, beating two very good teams from the state of Washington (the Huskies and Cougars) en route to a 7-4 conference record and 18-6 overall mark. PG Jerome Randle has held this team together, not only shooting the ball extremely well (over 50% shooting his last two games), but also dishing out assists and grabbing the occasional steal. And you know that when a point guard is playing well, the rest of the team usually responds. Cal is an amazing 14-1 at home, with their only loss coming a few weeks ago in a fluky game with Oregon State. This team responds well to their home crowd and has covered nine of 12 lined home games so far this season. Tough spot for Stanford here.
The Cardinal appear to be getting a shot in the arm tonight, however, as they get all-world guard Anthony Goods back from a viral infection that kept him out of Tuesday’s game against Cal State Bakersfield. That’s important because the Bears are a guard-oriented team and they’re going to need all the “little man” help they can get to keep the aforementioned Randle, Theo Robertson, and Patrick Christopher from going nuts. Still, this game is likely going to come down to which team plays better in the paint, and I believe (after watching Cal the last two games) the Golden Bears have improved dramatically with their post presence since these two last met and will be able to get the better of 6-8 F/C Lawrence Hill. Hill scored a career-high 25 points (11-15 shooting) in the last meeting because Cal had absolutely no one who could stop him. Not even Jamal Boykin, also 6-8, was any sort of challenge for Hill in that game, so you can bet he’ll take it personally to do everything in his power to shut down the Stanford big man.
Stanford has absolutely owned the Bears in recent years, winning 20 of the last 24, mainly because they dominated in the paint and at the free throw line. Not so this year. Cal has hit 74% of their free throws this season while the Cardinal has struggled to hit even 67% of their attempts from the stripe and if you haven’t noticed, Stanford is having its worst season in quite some time when asked to score in the low post. Cal will take full advantage of that as they wrap up this three-game homestand with another impressive win. Stanford has been miserable since it entered conference play this year, winning just four of their first 11 games in the Pac 10, and even with Goods coming back from that illness, he won’t be 100% and won’t believe his eyes when facing the Cal guards. Bears are on an 8-2 ATS run over their last 10 home games and have so much revenge on their minds it’s not even funny. They will give the home crowd something to cheer about with an 83-71 win.
NC STATE --- Yes, I’m fully aware that the Wolfpack haven’t exactly been successful on the road this season, losing five of six in their true road games. But has anyone noticed how they’ve been playing lately? Aside from their impressive 6-point win over Wake Forest Wednesday, the ‘Pack have played one of the toughest road schedules of anyone in the country over the past two months… and those games are going to prepare them for what Georgia Tech has in store for them this afternoon. NC State’s last four road games were losses at V. Tech (in overtime), at Boston College, at Duke, and at Clemson. That’s a tough schedule for anyone, let alone an average team like the Wolfpack. But like I said, that schedule has made this team stronger and will prove costly for the Jackets at home.
The Jackets stand at 10-13 overall and 1-9 in conference play, with their only win coming two weeks ago against Wake Forest… a game that if played today would have a totally different outcome. G. Tech has lost three straight and eight of their last nine, so it’s going to take a near-perfect game in order for them to pull off the win at home. Other than a small rebounding advantage, NC State owns every major category including PPG, shooting percentage and FT shooting percentage. Georgia Tech has basically cashed it in and is already building for next year while the Wolfies believe they can still compete with the top dogs in the ACC. NC State won the earlier meeting between the two at home and should find this matchup even more to their liking as Georgia Tech hasn’t made that “second half of the season” move like many thought they would. The underdog has covered seven of the last eight H2H meetings and I see no reason why this one won’t be different. Take the points and watch the Wolfpack win this game SU.
UCLA --- We all know Ben Howland’s crew is better than they showed Thursday night in Phoenix and they’ll prove it today in Tucson with a big, much-needed win. Arizona has been playing great basketball since their come-from-behind, OT win over Houston a few weeks ago. Since then they’ve reeled off five more wins over both Washington schools, both Oregon schools and USC. But I believe their luck runs out today as they simply don’t rebound the basketball well enough to continue winning. While Arizona has been outrebounded in four of their last five wins, UCLA has been dominating the boards and, aside from Thursday’s loss to ASU, they’ve been dominating opponents. Prior to Thursday night, UCLA won four straight games by an average of over 20 PPG.
Arizona’s recent run has been nothing short of unbelievable, but it ends this afternoon as they are simply out-matched at just about every position. Defensively, UCLA allows just over 60 PPG and is one of only a few teams in NCAA Division I basketball that can say they shoot better than 50% from the field on the season. Bruins are 6-2 ATS in the last eight H2H meetings vs. Arizona and after today you can make it 7-2 because Arizona is going to run out of gas in the second half. In their last 58 games following an ATS loss, the Bruins have covered more than two-thirds of those contests while Arizona finds themselves in a 1-4 ATS slump when getting between one and 6.5 points. UCLA gets back on track with a 10-point road win.
30 Dime ---- CALIFORNIA
15 Dime ---- NC STATE
10 Dime ---- UCLA
CALIFORNIA --- I’ve really enjoyed watching this team recently as they seem to be getting production in all the right places at all the right times. It seems that the Pac 10 has become quite an interesting conference as of late, with Washington, UCLA, Arizona State and Cal now in a four-way battle for the top spot and the #1 seed in the conference tourney. Cal has been ultra-impressive in their last two home games, beating two very good teams from the state of Washington (the Huskies and Cougars) en route to a 7-4 conference record and 18-6 overall mark. PG Jerome Randle has held this team together, not only shooting the ball extremely well (over 50% shooting his last two games), but also dishing out assists and grabbing the occasional steal. And you know that when a point guard is playing well, the rest of the team usually responds. Cal is an amazing 14-1 at home, with their only loss coming a few weeks ago in a fluky game with Oregon State. This team responds well to their home crowd and has covered nine of 12 lined home games so far this season. Tough spot for Stanford here.
The Cardinal appear to be getting a shot in the arm tonight, however, as they get all-world guard Anthony Goods back from a viral infection that kept him out of Tuesday’s game against Cal State Bakersfield. That’s important because the Bears are a guard-oriented team and they’re going to need all the “little man” help they can get to keep the aforementioned Randle, Theo Robertson, and Patrick Christopher from going nuts. Still, this game is likely going to come down to which team plays better in the paint, and I believe (after watching Cal the last two games) the Golden Bears have improved dramatically with their post presence since these two last met and will be able to get the better of 6-8 F/C Lawrence Hill. Hill scored a career-high 25 points (11-15 shooting) in the last meeting because Cal had absolutely no one who could stop him. Not even Jamal Boykin, also 6-8, was any sort of challenge for Hill in that game, so you can bet he’ll take it personally to do everything in his power to shut down the Stanford big man.
Stanford has absolutely owned the Bears in recent years, winning 20 of the last 24, mainly because they dominated in the paint and at the free throw line. Not so this year. Cal has hit 74% of their free throws this season while the Cardinal has struggled to hit even 67% of their attempts from the stripe and if you haven’t noticed, Stanford is having its worst season in quite some time when asked to score in the low post. Cal will take full advantage of that as they wrap up this three-game homestand with another impressive win. Stanford has been miserable since it entered conference play this year, winning just four of their first 11 games in the Pac 10, and even with Goods coming back from that illness, he won’t be 100% and won’t believe his eyes when facing the Cal guards. Bears are on an 8-2 ATS run over their last 10 home games and have so much revenge on their minds it’s not even funny. They will give the home crowd something to cheer about with an 83-71 win.
NC STATE --- Yes, I’m fully aware that the Wolfpack haven’t exactly been successful on the road this season, losing five of six in their true road games. But has anyone noticed how they’ve been playing lately? Aside from their impressive 6-point win over Wake Forest Wednesday, the ‘Pack have played one of the toughest road schedules of anyone in the country over the past two months… and those games are going to prepare them for what Georgia Tech has in store for them this afternoon. NC State’s last four road games were losses at V. Tech (in overtime), at Boston College, at Duke, and at Clemson. That’s a tough schedule for anyone, let alone an average team like the Wolfpack. But like I said, that schedule has made this team stronger and will prove costly for the Jackets at home.
The Jackets stand at 10-13 overall and 1-9 in conference play, with their only win coming two weeks ago against Wake Forest… a game that if played today would have a totally different outcome. G. Tech has lost three straight and eight of their last nine, so it’s going to take a near-perfect game in order for them to pull off the win at home. Other than a small rebounding advantage, NC State owns every major category including PPG, shooting percentage and FT shooting percentage. Georgia Tech has basically cashed it in and is already building for next year while the Wolfies believe they can still compete with the top dogs in the ACC. NC State won the earlier meeting between the two at home and should find this matchup even more to their liking as Georgia Tech hasn’t made that “second half of the season” move like many thought they would. The underdog has covered seven of the last eight H2H meetings and I see no reason why this one won’t be different. Take the points and watch the Wolfpack win this game SU.
UCLA --- We all know Ben Howland’s crew is better than they showed Thursday night in Phoenix and they’ll prove it today in Tucson with a big, much-needed win. Arizona has been playing great basketball since their come-from-behind, OT win over Houston a few weeks ago. Since then they’ve reeled off five more wins over both Washington schools, both Oregon schools and USC. But I believe their luck runs out today as they simply don’t rebound the basketball well enough to continue winning. While Arizona has been outrebounded in four of their last five wins, UCLA has been dominating the boards and, aside from Thursday’s loss to ASU, they’ve been dominating opponents. Prior to Thursday night, UCLA won four straight games by an average of over 20 PPG.
Arizona’s recent run has been nothing short of unbelievable, but it ends this afternoon as they are simply out-matched at just about every position. Defensively, UCLA allows just over 60 PPG and is one of only a few teams in NCAA Division I basketball that can say they shoot better than 50% from the field on the season. Bruins are 6-2 ATS in the last eight H2H meetings vs. Arizona and after today you can make it 7-2 because Arizona is going to run out of gas in the second half. In their last 58 games following an ATS loss, the Bruins have covered more than two-thirds of those contests while Arizona finds themselves in a 1-4 ATS slump when getting between one and 6.5 points. UCLA gets back on track with a 10-point road win.
