Pick #1: Your pick will be graded at: -4 Belmont
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 9* Insiders Blowout - Oregon State (-) vs. Oregon, 7:30 PM EST
Oregon State has been playing very well as of late. Winners of three straight, including two tough road wins; a 15 point victory @Stanford, and a 4 point victory @California. New Coach Craig Robinson, who is brother-in-law to new President Barack Obama; must be taking some motivational speech lessons from the President as he has his Beavers club playing very smart basketball, committing 7.6 turnovers per game the past 5 games, and shooting 47.5% field goals this season. We view this as a very opportunistic pick, and are giving the edge to the Beavers on Saturday in this inner-state rivalry.
Oregon is just bad, plain and simple. They have lost 8 straight games in bad fashion; losing by 7, 22, 12, 17, 18, 15, 9, and 21 points in those 8 games. As a team, they shoot just 40% on offense, and give up 48% field goals on the defensive end. Their “best player,” Tajuan Porter, averages 13.9 points per game, and shoots just 37% from the floor. They are just 1-6 on the road this season and we see that moving to 1-7 against Oregon State.
I mentioned before how Oregon State recently beat Stanford and California on the road; Oregon also recently played both of those teams on the road and lost both games. Oregon is just 6-13 ATS this season, and they have 9 “bad” losses (10 points or more). The Ducks are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Beavers. We’ll give the advantage to the well-coached team in Oregon. Go with the Beavers.
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Pick #2: Your pick will be graded at: -12 Belmont
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 9* Horizon League Game of the Month - UW Green Bay (-) vs. Loyola, 8:00 PM EST
The Phoenix sit at 8-2 in the Horizon League, all alone in second place just behind Butler. Their two losses came @ Butler and @ Loyola, the team they host tonight. Their 9-point loss @ Butler was expected, however they are far superior to Loyola and that loss was one they want back. It was not a great situation at the time for UWGB as they were playing their fourth straight road game and they had in-state rival UW Milwaukee on deck. Despite those difficult factors staring them in the face, the Phoenix still nearly pulled off the road win losing 62-60. GB shot just 43% in that game and allowed the Ramblers to hit an uncharacteristic 54% of their shots. Even worse, the Phoenix, who are the 6th best three point shooting team in the nation at 40.6%, could hit the broadside in that loss making only 3 of 18 (18%) from beyond the arc. Definitely the sign of a tired team and who could blame them playing four straight away from home. However, even with all of that, the game was close throughout and Green Bay had a chance at the win.
Ironically, the roles are directly reversed in this game. Now it is Loyola playing their fourth straight road game in the span of only 10 days. They are tired right now just as UWGB was in round one. That was never more evident on Thursday night when Loyola traveled to UW Milwaukee and were creamed on the glass getting out rebounded by 33. The Panthers grabbed 32 OFFENSIVE BOARDS in that game. And because of that, despite shooting only 35%, UWM won the game 72-58 because they had 30 more shot attempts. If the Panthers even shoot at an average clip in that game they win by 20+ points. Loyola is a team that sits with a 10-8 overall record, however vs. the upper echelon teams in the Horizon, they’ve had no luck at all. In fact, they’ve been whipped in each of those games sans their first match up vs. an exhausted Green Bay team. Other than that, the Ramblers have lost by 11 @ Wright State, by 23 at home to Butler, by 26 @ Cleveland State, by 14 both home and away vs. Milwaukee and by 14 @ Illinois Chicago. All double digit losses vs. the upper half teams in the Horizon.
As poor as Milwaukee shot on Thursday (and still won by 14), don’t look for that type of performance from UWGB. The Phoenix are the #1 shooting team in the conference and as we mentioned the 6th best 3-points shooting team in the country. They also hit 78% of their free throws which is good for 4th nationally. They are averaging over 80 PPG at home in conference play and will eclipse that tonight vs. a Loyola team that is 10th in the league in defensive points per possession allowing 1.094.
UWGB is now 9-1-1 ATS last 11 at home dating back to last season and they get anther one here. They are rested and ready for revenge. BLOWOUT!
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Pick #3: Your pick will be graded at: 7 Belmont
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 5* Idaho State + vs. Weber State, 9:00 PM EST
These two teams are meeting for the first time in… 2 days. They played each other on Thursday night in Idaho and Weber State came out on top in overtime, 76-67. Idaho State out-rebounded the Wildcats by 10, but committed 7 more turnovers that ultimately cost them the game. Before the overtime loss to Weber State, Idaho State also lost to Sacramento State by 3. Both of these losses came after a season high 3 game winning streak by 8, 21, and 10 points. Weber State comes into this game as a 7.5 point favorite at home, but we don’t see them covering against Idaho State for a 2nd game 3 days.
Idaho State’s record doesn’t do justice to how talented they may be. They boast just a 7-15 record, but with games against big time programs such as Washington State, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona State, Kansas State and Wisconsin Green-Bay; they can’t be faulted for a high number of losses. Weber State has a far better record on paper, but they haven’t played anywhere near the talent that Idaho State has this season.
Weber State has won 7 of their last 10, but 5 of those wins were by 10 points or less, and two came in overtime. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the past 5 meetings between these two clubs, and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the past 5 meetings. We see these trends continuing and for the road Idaho State Bengals to come away with the ATS win. Go with the Bengals.
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Pick #4:Your pick will be graded at: 197.5 SPORTSBETTING
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
REASON FOR PICK: 8* UNDER 195 Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks - 8:35 pm EST
Tonight we side with the UNDER 197 in the Atlanta Hawks @ Milwaukee Bucks game. Bucks head coach Scott Skiles threw us a curve ball recently when he proclaimed he was going to try and play up tempo because his offense is/was struggling to score so he wanted easy baskets. That obviously isn’t the case as he attempted just 75 shots last night in Toronto and scored 0 (ZERO) fast break points. Milwaukee did play some outstanding defense though as they allowed just 55 total points in the last 3 quarters last night to the Raptors. The return of 7-ft center Andrew Bogut will have a positive effect on the Bucks ‘D’ with him in the lineup.
The Hawks are also coming off a game last night in which they attempted just 70 shots but they still managed to score 105 points. Reason being, they shot an uncharacteristic 51.4% from the field. That won’t happen tonight against a Milwaukee team which ranks 13th in the league in defensive efficiency. The Hawks played some defense of their own last night against New Jersey as they limited the Nets to just 40% shooting and 35-points in the second half.
These teams should both be fatigued tonight as this is their 3rd game in four nights and the second night of a back-to-back for both. When playing second night of consecutive nights, the Hawks and their foes average 197 ppg while the Bucks and their opponents average 190 ppg in the same situation. Based on our mathematical simulations we project a total of just 189 on this game. Play the UNDER!<!-- / message -->