GINA
Saturday, January 24th, 7:30 p.m. est.
Orlando Magic (33-9) at Miami Heat (22-19)
Orlando Magic has not lost two in a row since the start of this season. Go with Orlando to recover! The Magic have won 10 straight against the Heat, going 8-1-1 ATS and the last five at American Airlines Arena, going 4-1 ATS. Miami is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games overall at home.
Orlando Magic -5½
Saturday, January 24th, 7:30 p.m. est.
Orlando Magic (33-9) at Miami Heat (22-19)
Orlando Magic has not lost two in a row since the start of this season. Go with Orlando to recover! The Magic have won 10 straight against the Heat, going 8-1-1 ATS and the last five at American Airlines Arena, going 4-1 ATS. Miami is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games overall at home.
Orlando Magic -5½
Matt Fargo
Wisconsin-Green Bay v/s Valparaiso
Predicted Winner: Wisconsin-Green Bay
**10** Horizon Game of the Year 10* Won LW Wisconsin-Green Bay was 6-1 in the Horizon League before meeting Butler on Thursday. The Phoenix lost by nine points but put forth a great effort in the defeat as they limited Butler to just 7-of-25 shooting in the first half. The Bulldogs proved to be just too tough on their home floor as they pulled away late but now is the time to bounce back. After starting the season 0-2, Wisconsin-Green Bay went 14-3 in its next 17 games and that one league loss came by just a single bucket at Loyola-Chicago. This is no fluke as it was poised to be at the top of the conference this season as it brought back all five starters from last season, the only team in the conference that can say that. Last year was a disappointment as the Phoenix lost six of their final eight games including the final game which was in the first round of the Horizon League Tournament to Valparaiso. This does bring in a revenge angle although that is not part of the reason for this take. Coming off that loss against Butler will have them ready for a big bounce back. While the Phoenix were losing, Valparaiso was winning as it took out Wisconsin-Milwaukee on Thursday. The Panthers did not have much going for them as the Crusaders were playing with revenge from a 14-point loss in Milwaukee earlier in the season and it was likely in lookahead mode to Butler on Saturday. While the win was nice, I think it was more of a loss by the Panthers than anything. That victory snapped a three-game losing streak and it has been a tough season and one that has been the exact opposite of Wisconsin-Green Bay. Valparaiso started the season 2-0 but went on a 3-14 run before Thursday’s victory. One of those victories came against North Park, a small Division III university while the other came against Marian College, an NAIA school out of Indianapolis. The only other victories came against Youngstown St. and Detroit who are a combined 10-27 this season. The Crusaders have yet to put together two good back-to-back games against Division I teams and it likely will not happen here. Not only do the situations favor the Phoenix but they have advantages in almost every pertinent statistic. Green Bay ranks first in the Horizon League in scoring offense at 70.4 ppg, free throw percentage at 79.3 percent, field goal percentage at 43.3 percent and three-point percentage at 39.3 percent. The Phoenix are second nationally in free throw percentage and 23rd in three-point shooting. Valparaiso is hitting just 62.7 percent of its free throws, which is 310th in the nation and 30.8 percent from long range which is tied for 282nd in the country. It doesn’t end there. Wisconsin-Green Bay has an offensive efficiency rating of 106.6 which is 2nd in the conference and 82nd overall while the Crusaders have a 91.8 rating which is 9th in the 10-team conference and 291st in the nation. Wisconsin-Green Bay also has a 1.01 assist/turnover ratio compared to a 0.82 ratio for Valparaiso. To the Crusaders credit, they have played a tougher schedule overall but it has not done much to help in the win column. The Phoenix are an extremely deep team as well as they have had eight different leading scorers and seven different leading rebounders this season. In addition, five players are averaging at least 9.0 ppg, and four are in double figures. Wisconsin-Green Bay has feasted on these types of opponents in the past as they are 12-3 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last three seasons. Valparaiso is just 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games off a win against a conference rival and it is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against teams with a winning record. The Phoenix are also 9-0 ATS after having won three of their last four games over the last two seasons showing that they just don’t put together back-to-back poor efforts. That will be case again here. 10* Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix
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Wisconsin-Green Bay v/s Valparaiso
Predicted Winner: Wisconsin-Green Bay
**10** Horizon Game of the Year 10* Won LW Wisconsin-Green Bay was 6-1 in the Horizon League before meeting Butler on Thursday. The Phoenix lost by nine points but put forth a great effort in the defeat as they limited Butler to just 7-of-25 shooting in the first half. The Bulldogs proved to be just too tough on their home floor as they pulled away late but now is the time to bounce back. After starting the season 0-2, Wisconsin-Green Bay went 14-3 in its next 17 games and that one league loss came by just a single bucket at Loyola-Chicago. This is no fluke as it was poised to be at the top of the conference this season as it brought back all five starters from last season, the only team in the conference that can say that. Last year was a disappointment as the Phoenix lost six of their final eight games including the final game which was in the first round of the Horizon League Tournament to Valparaiso. This does bring in a revenge angle although that is not part of the reason for this take. Coming off that loss against Butler will have them ready for a big bounce back. While the Phoenix were losing, Valparaiso was winning as it took out Wisconsin-Milwaukee on Thursday. The Panthers did not have much going for them as the Crusaders were playing with revenge from a 14-point loss in Milwaukee earlier in the season and it was likely in lookahead mode to Butler on Saturday. While the win was nice, I think it was more of a loss by the Panthers than anything. That victory snapped a three-game losing streak and it has been a tough season and one that has been the exact opposite of Wisconsin-Green Bay. Valparaiso started the season 2-0 but went on a 3-14 run before Thursday’s victory. One of those victories came against North Park, a small Division III university while the other came against Marian College, an NAIA school out of Indianapolis. The only other victories came against Youngstown St. and Detroit who are a combined 10-27 this season. The Crusaders have yet to put together two good back-to-back games against Division I teams and it likely will not happen here. Not only do the situations favor the Phoenix but they have advantages in almost every pertinent statistic. Green Bay ranks first in the Horizon League in scoring offense at 70.4 ppg, free throw percentage at 79.3 percent, field goal percentage at 43.3 percent and three-point percentage at 39.3 percent. The Phoenix are second nationally in free throw percentage and 23rd in three-point shooting. Valparaiso is hitting just 62.7 percent of its free throws, which is 310th in the nation and 30.8 percent from long range which is tied for 282nd in the country. It doesn’t end there. Wisconsin-Green Bay has an offensive efficiency rating of 106.6 which is 2nd in the conference and 82nd overall while the Crusaders have a 91.8 rating which is 9th in the 10-team conference and 291st in the nation. Wisconsin-Green Bay also has a 1.01 assist/turnover ratio compared to a 0.82 ratio for Valparaiso. To the Crusaders credit, they have played a tougher schedule overall but it has not done much to help in the win column. The Phoenix are an extremely deep team as well as they have had eight different leading scorers and seven different leading rebounders this season. In addition, five players are averaging at least 9.0 ppg, and four are in double figures. Wisconsin-Green Bay has feasted on these types of opponents in the past as they are 12-3 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last three seasons. Valparaiso is just 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games off a win against a conference rival and it is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against teams with a winning record. The Phoenix are also 9-0 ATS after having won three of their last four games over the last two seasons showing that they just don’t put together back-to-back poor efforts. That will be case again here. 10* Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix
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The VSE Friday Hoops Power Plays are:
VSE NCAA Power Plays
10* Take Xavier (+3) over LSU (NCAA Power Play)
Xavier
• 6-0 SU & ATS over the last 6 games
• 5-0 SU in all road games this season
• 4-0 SU when the line is between +3 to -3
• 14-2 SU coming off a road win over the last 3 seasons
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5* Take Baylor (+7.5) over Oklahoma (NCAA Bonus Play)
Baylor
• 7-0 SU when playing on a Saturday this season
• 3-0 SU & ATS as an underdog this season
• 7-1 SU coming off a road win by 10 points or more
Bonus Hoops & NHL Plays are:
3* Take Utah (+4.5) over UNLV (NCAA)
3* Take Philadelphia (-8) over New York (NBA
VSE NCAA Power Plays
10* Take Xavier (+3) over LSU (NCAA Power Play)
Xavier
• 6-0 SU & ATS over the last 6 games
• 5-0 SU in all road games this season
• 4-0 SU when the line is between +3 to -3
• 14-2 SU coming off a road win over the last 3 seasons
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5* Take Baylor (+7.5) over Oklahoma (NCAA Bonus Play)
Baylor
• 7-0 SU when playing on a Saturday this season
• 3-0 SU & ATS as an underdog this season
• 7-1 SU coming off a road win by 10 points or more
Bonus Hoops & NHL Plays are:
3* Take Utah (+4.5) over UNLV (NCAA)
3* Take Philadelphia (-8) over New York (NBA
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
Maryland (13-5, 6-4-2 ATS) at (2) Duke (17-1, 9-7-1 ATS)
Streaking Duke, looking to ascend to No. 1 in the rankings, takes on Maryland in an ACC battle at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
The Blue Devils rolled over North Carolina State 73-56 Tuesday for their ninth straight win, but they fell short of covering as a heavy 20-point home chalk in dropping to 1-3-1 ATS in their last five outings. For the season, Duke has averaged 80.1 points per game on 47.2 percent shooting, but those numbers have dipped over the past five games to 72.8 ppg on 44.7 percent shooting. Defensively, the Blue Devils are yielding just 60.8 ppg in their last five contests, nearly matching their season average of 60.3.
The Terrapins beat Virginia 84-78 Tuesday night to end a two-game SU skid, but they failed to cover laying 9½ points at home, halting a two-game ATS uptick. Over the last five games, Maryland has narrowly outscored its opponents (70.0-68.6 ppg), well off its average margin of nearly 10 ppg for the entire season (73.2-63.6), primarily due to the Terps shooting just 39.8 percent from the floor – including a dismal 25.6 percent from three-point range.
Duke won both of last year’s meetings, going 1-0-1 ATS, with the push coming in a 77-65 home win as a 12-point favorite. This rivalry has been pretty even in recent years, as the two squads have split the last 10 contests, with Maryland holding a 5-4-1 ATS edge.
The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after a non-cover, but they are on pointspread skids of 1-6-1 on Saturday and 4-9-1 in conference. The Terrapins are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven ACC tilts, but they are on pointspread runs of 5-1-1 after a SU win, 4-1 on the highway and 7-2-1 in Saturday games.
The under for Duke is on tears of 19-7 overall, 8-0 in the ACC, 6-1 after a SU win, 11-5 after a non-cover and 16-5 at Cameron Indoor. Likewise, the under for Maryland is on rolls of 14-6 overall, 6-1 after a SU win, 4-1 on the road, 11-3 against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 7-3 in conference play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Kentucky (15-4, 9-4-1 ATS ) at Alabama (12-6, 6-7 ATS)
Kentucky aims to continue its run of success when it travels to Tuscaloosa for an SEC contest against Alabama at Coleman Coliseum.
The Wildcats topped Auburn 73-64 Wednesday for their 10th win in the last 11 games, but they fell short of covering as an 11-point home chalk, which ended a five-game ATS surge. Kentucky is off to a 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) start in conference play, with the win over the Tigers being the closest of those contests, as the Wildcats have averaged 75.25 ppg while giving up just 60.25. That includes blowout road wins against Georgia (68-45) and a ranked Tennessee squad (90-72). Over the last five games, Kentucky is shooting a solid 49.4 percent, including 42.3 percent from three-point range
The Crimson Tide edged Mississippi 76-73 as a 6½-point home favorite Wednesday, ending a two-game SU hiccup but failing to cash for the third straight contest. Alabama has gone 2-3 SU and ATS in its last five games, working at a deficit in averaging 69.0 ppg while giving up 73.2. The Crimson Tide are shooting 44.3 percent from the field in that span, which is actually better than their season-long average of 43.8, but they have struggled from long distance in shooting just 25.8 percent over the past five games.
Kentucky is 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight clashes between these two teams, winning each of the past two years on its home floor, including a 62-52 victory giving 6½ points last February. The favorite has cashed in the last four meetings.
The Wildcats are on several positive pointspread streaks, including 5-1 overall, 4-0 in roadies, 8-1 after a non-cover, 6-1 against winning teams, 9-3 on Saturday and 6-2 in SEC play. The Tide are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games versus teams with a winning percentage above .600, but they are on a 2-5 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road mark.
The under for Kentucky is on runs of 6-1 after an ATS loss, 4-1 in the SEC, 8-3 on Saturday and 7-3 against winning teams, and in this rivalry, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings at Coleman and 7-3 in the last 10 contests overall. However, the over for Alabama is on stretches of 8-2 overall, 6-1 at home, 5-1 after a SU win and 4-1 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY
(22) Memphis (15-3, 10-7 ATS) at Tennessee (12-5, 7-7-1 ATS)
Instate rivals square off in a non-conference clash when red-hot Memphis makes the trip to Knoxville to face Tennessee at Thompson-Boling Arena.
The Tigers fried Rice 80-52 Wednesday, narrowly covering as an overwhelming 26-point home chalk as they ran their winning streak to nine games (6-2 ATS in lined contests). For the season, Memphis has outscored opponents by an average of more than 16 ppg (77.4-61.20); however, on the road, the Tigers average 66.0 ppg while giving up a shade more than that at 66.3.
The Volunteers are coming off a victory over another instate rival, knocking off SEC foe Vanderbilt 76-63 laying two points on the road Tuesday to end a two-game ATS hiccup. Tennessee is among the top scoring teams in the nation, putting up 82.9 ppg (eighth), and the Vols are even better on their home floor, averaging 85.9 ppg in outscoring opponents by just over 11 ppg (allowing 74.8 ppg).
Tennessee has cashed in the last four clashes between these two (2-2 SU), including a 66-62 road win last February catching 6½ points. The underdog is on a 6-0 ATS tear in this series, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests.
The Tigers are on ATS upticks of 6-2 overall and 5-2 after a SU win, but they also carry negative ATS trends of 0-4 against the SEC, 1-5 on the highway, 2-6 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 3-8 after a SU win of more than 20 points. The Volunteers are on ATS dips of 1-5-1 after a spread-cover and 1-4 against teams with a win percentage above .600, but they sport positive ATS streaks of 7-1 against Conference USA and 7-3 at home against teams with a winning road record.
The under for Memphis is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 4-1 after a SU win and 7-2 after a spread-cover, but the over for Tennessee is on stretches of 5-2 overall, 5-1 on Saturday, 4-1 after a SU win and 4-1 in non-conference play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Baylor (15-3, 6-4 ATS) at (6) Oklahoma (18-1, 8-6 ATS)
Oklahoma goes after its seventh straight victory when it hosts Baylor in a Big 12 meeting at the Lloyd Noble Center.
The Sooners turned back Nebraska 72-61 Wednesday as a 13-point home favorite, notching their sixth win in a row but ending a 3-0 ATS run. Oklahoma has had solid numbers on offense recently, averaging 76.0 ppg on 47.2 percent shooting (35.9 percent from three-point range) over the past five games. But defense has been the key in that stretch, as the Sooners are holding opponents to a stifling 35.6 percent from the floor (60.8 ppg).
The Bears ripped Kansas State 83-65 as a 3½-point road pup Wednesday for their second straight win and cover, following an 0-3 ATS stretch (1-2 SU). Baylor has averaged 82.0 ppg on 48.1 percent shooting in its last five starts, including 42.6 percent from long distance, but they’ve also given up 77 ppg on 45.5 percent shooting, with opponents hitting three-pointers at a 44 percent clip.
Oklahoma has owned this rivalry, winning the last 28 games SU, including all 24 since the formation of the Big 12. Last year, these two teams split the cash, with the Sooners winning 77-71 at Baylor getting 4½ points, then eking out a 92-91 overtime home win as a 5½-point chalk. Oklahoma is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the favorite is on an 11-5-2 ATS roll.
The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record, and they are on a 5-2 ATS run in Saturday games. The Bears are on a handful of positive ATS runs, including 5-1 on Saturday, 14-5 on the road, 13-5 in roadies against teams with a winning home mark, 21-9 after a spread-cover and 17-8 following a SU win.
The under for Oklahoma is on runs of 7-0 on Saturday and 9-2 in Big 12 play, but the over is 6-1 in the Sooners’ last seven at home, and the over for Baylor is on sprees of 21-7 overall, 6-1 against winning teams, 12-3 on the highway, 20-7 on Saturday and 36-16 against the Big 12. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four straight meetings in Norman and six of the last seven overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA and OVER
(13) UCLA (15-3, 8-9 ATS) at Washington (14-4, 10-6 ATS)
UCLA, coming off a tight victory across the state in Pullman, heads to Seattle for a Pac-10 clash with surging Washington.
The Bruins nearly blew a 13-point halftime lead at Washington State on Thursday, barely holding on for a 61-59 victory, falling short as a five-point road chalk. The win came on the heels of last Saturday’s 61-58 overtime home loss to Arizona State. For the season, UCLA has outscored opponents by more than 16 ppg (74.7-58.6), but that margin has been tighter on the road (68.2-61.4) and over the last five games (69.8-62..
The Huskies beat Southern Cal 78-73 as a 6½-point home chalk Thursday for their third straight win (2-1 ATS) and their 12th victory in the last 13 games (7-4 ATS in lined contests). Washington has been racking up the points in Pac-10 play, averaging 80.7 ppg while giving up 69.7 in six contests so far, and for the season, the Huskies have outscored opponents by an average of more than 15 ppg (80.4-65.2) on their home floor.
Washington has covered in the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-1 SU), including a 71-61 home win last February as a nine-point underdog. In fact, the ‘dog has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams.
The Bruins are on ATS rolls of 36-16-1 on the road, 35-16-1 in roadies against teams with a winning home mark, 38-18 after a pointspread setback and 6-2 against winning teams. The Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last five Saturday games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games after a non-cover, but they are on ATS declines of 1-7 at home against teams with a winning road record and 1-4 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
The under is on a 6-1 streak for both UCLA and Washington when they face winning teams, and in this rivalry, the total has gone low in six of the last seven meetings overall and four straight in Seattle. However, the over for the Huskies is on runs of 5-0 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 10-1 in Pac-10 play, 10-2 on Saturday and 4-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Wisconsin (12-6, 7-9 ATS) at (25) Illinois (16-3, 11-4 ATS)
Wisconsin takes a three-game losing skid to Assembly Hall for a Big Ten battle with Illinois, which has lost five in a row in this rivalry.
The Badgers started Big Ten play with three straight wins (2-1 ATS), but have since dropped three consecutive league contests, including back-to-back overtime losses to Minnesota at home (78-74 as a 6½-point favorite) and Iowa on the road (73-69 as a 3½-point chalk). Prior to those two setbacks, Wisconsin had allowed more than 70 points just three times in its first 15 games.
Illinois improved to 4-2 (5-1 ATS) in conference action with Tuesday’s 67-49 rout of Ohio State, easily cashing as a 7½-point home chalk. The Illini have covered the spread in four straight games, including all three Big Ten home games. Over their last five contests, they’re averaging just 66 ppg (46.3 percent shooting) but allowing only 56.4 ppg (40.2 percent). Illinois has held 16 of 19 opponents to less than 65 points, with nine of the last 12 foes scoring less than 60.
Wisconsin has won five in a row against Illinois (4-1 ATS), including two straight victories in Assembly Hall. Last season, the Badgers posted three double-digit victories over the Illini, prevailing 70-60 but falling short as a 10½-point home favorite, 71-57 as a one-point road chalk and 61-48 as a seven-point favorite in the Big Ten tournament title game. The visitor has cashed in six straight regular-season meetings in this series, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
Although they’ve failed to cash in four of their last five games overall, the Badgers are on positive ATS runs of 12-5 on the road, 4-1 on Saturday and 8-2 after a non-cover. Illinois carries nothing but strong ATS streaks into this game, including 5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 7-0 on Saturday, 8-3 after a victory and 6-1 against teams with a winning record.
The over is 6-2 in Wisconsin’s last eight games overall, but otherwise the under is on stretches of 16-5 for Wisconsin on Saturday, 6-2 for the Illini overall, 4-0 for the Illini at home, 5-2 for the Illini in Big Ten play, 8-0 for the Illini on Saturday and 36-16-1 for the Illini following an ATS win. Lastly, the under has hit in five of the last seven head-to-head meetings at Assembly Hall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(3) UConn (17-1, 6-7 ATS) at (19) Notre Dame (12-5, 4-7 ATS)
Notre Dame continues a grueling run of games against Top 25 opponents when it returns to South Bend, Ind., in search of its 44th straight home win when it hosts streaking Connecticut, which has won six in a row.
The Fighting Irish are coming off back-to-back Big East road losses to No. 23 Louisville (83-73 in overtime as a 6½-point underdog) and No. 8 Syracuse (93-74 as a 3½-point underdog). Notre Dame is in the midst of a stretch where it is playing five straight games against ranked foes – all Big East teams – and seven of eight against Top 25 competition.
The Huskies ran their winning streak to six in a row with Wednesday’s 89-83 victory over Villanova, but they came up short as a 9½-point home favorite, their third consecutive non-cover, which follows a three-game ATS winning streak. UConn has won its first three Big East road games (2-1 ATS) by an average of 12.3 ppg.
UConn, which lost its league opener to Georgetown at home, is 6-1 in the Big East (3-4 ATS), while the Irish is now 3-3 in league play (2-4 ATS).
The host has won seven consecutive meetings in this series (5-2 ATS), and Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes in South Bend. Last season, the Irish prevailed 73-67 at home, barely covering as a 5½-point chalk, but UConn got revenge with an 84-78 win as a 4½-point favorite. The last three games were decided by a total of 13 points and five of the last six had single-digit margins of victory.
Notre Dame puts up 80 ppg on 45.3 percent shooting (40.3 percent on three-pointers), while the Huskies net 79.3 ppg on 49.6 percent shooting (38 percent on three-pointers). Defensively, UConn surrenders just 62.6 ppg (38.7 percent) and the Irish yield 69.8 ppg (43 percent), but they’re allowing 79.8 ppg (47.7 percent) in Big East action.
The Huskies are in ATS funks of 3-5 overall (all in Big East play), 3-5 after a SU win and 1-4 after a non-cover, but they have cashed in seven of their last nine games on Saturday. Notre Dame is 0-5 ATS in its last five Saturday outings, but 4-1 ATS in its last five after an outright loss and 5-2 ATS in its last seven following a non-cover.
The under is 5-2 in UConn’s last seven games overall, but the over is on runs of 4-1 for UConn on Saturday, 20-9 for Notre Dame overall, 22-7 for Notre Dame in Big East play and 22-10 for Notre Dame on Saturday. Also, three of the last four series meetings in South Bend have hurdled the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(15) Xavier (16-2, 10-6 ATS) at LSU (15-3, 6-4 ATS)
Off to a perfect start in Atlantic 10 Conference play, Xavier takes a break from league action when it visits the Maravich Assembly Center in Baton Rouge for a clash with LSU.
Since suffering back-to-back blowout losses to Duke and Butler, Xavier has ripped off seven consecutive victories, going 6-0 ATS in lined action during this run. During the winning streak, the Musketeers have posted six double-digit routs, including five wins by 20 points or more. On Wednesday, they went to St. Bonaventure and rolled to an 84-64 win as an 11-point road chalk, improving to 5-0 SU and ATS in the Atlantic 10.
LSU is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run, with double-digit routs of SEC foes South Carolina (85-68), Ole Miss (83-51) and Mississippi State (81-57). The Tigers have won seven of their last nine, with five of the last six victories coming by double digits. Also, since an ugly 91-61 loss at Utah, LSU has turned up the heat on defense, allowing only 60.3 ppg in its first four SEC contests.
These squads, who have not faced each other recently, are very similar statistically. The Musketeers average 73.3 ppg (46.4 percent shooting) and give up 62.1 ppg (37.3 percent), while LSU puts up 76.1 ppg (46.4 percent) and allows 61.1 ppg (39 percent).
The Tigers have won 17 consecutive home games, going 14-0 at the Maravich Center this season (5-1 ATS in lined action). Meanwhile, Xavier is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS on the highway, including 5-0 SU and ATS in true road games. Going back to last season, the Musketeers have covered in six consecutive games on an opponent’s home court.
In addition to its ATS streaks of 6-0 overall and 6-0 on the road, Xavier is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 games against winning teams, but it has failed to cash in nine of its last 13 Saturday contests. LSU is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games, but otherwise is on positive pointspread streaks of 11-5 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-1 on Saturday, 9-3 after an outright win, 7-2 after a spread-cover and 7-3 against winning teams.
For Xavier, the over is on runs of 7-3 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-1 on Saturday, 5-0 in non-conference games and 5-2-1 versus the SEC. LSU has topped the total in four of its last five at home, but the under is 9-3 in its last 12 non-conference contests and 36-15 in its last 51 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Texas A&M (15-4, 5-6 ATS) at (14) Texas (13-4, 7-7 ATS)
Texas returns to Austin after consecutive Big 12 road games when it entertains rival Texas A&M, which has lost three of its first four league contests.
The Longhorns have alternated wins and losses in their last four and are just 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS) in their last seven. However, they followed up an uninspired 78-63 loss at Oklahoma as a 4½-point road underdog with Saturday’s 71-49 rout of Texas Tech as a 6½-point road favorite, halting an 0-3 ATS slide. Texas has held six of its last seven opponents under 70 points, but it is averaging just 69.3 ppg during this stretch.
The Aggies went to Lawrence, Kan., on Monday and got steamrolled by the Jayhawks, losing 73-53 as a 10½-point road underdog. Texas A&M has followed up a 10-game non-conference winning streak by starting the Big 12 season 1-3 SU and ATS, but the one victory came at home against then-No. 21 Baylor, an 84-73 romp as a 1½-point pup.
This rivalry has belonged to the home team, which has won nine straight regular-season meetings, going 7-1-1 ATS, including 5-0 ATS in the last five. Also, the favorite has cashed in each of the past four meetings. Last year, Texas A&M cruised to an 80-63 victory as a 3½-point home chalk, then went to Austin and got blasted 77-50 as a five-point underdog. The Aggies have lost five straight times in Austin, going 1-3-1 ATS, but they’re 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 series meetings overall.
The Longhorns have won 18 consecutive home games, including nine in a row hosting Big 12 foes. But they’re just 8-7 ATS during this stretch, including 5-4 ATS in league home games. Texas A&M is just 4-3 SU and ATS in road/neutral-site games, and they’ve lost four of their last five Big 12 roadies going back to last year’s visit to Texas, with all four defeats being by double digits.
Texas A&M is on ATS streaks of 7-3 on the road, 5-2 on Saturday, 7-1 after a non-cover, 6-1 after a loss and 25-12 when playing on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Longhorns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on Saturday, but otherwise are in pointspread funks of 1-4 at home, 2-6-1 in Big 12 play, 2-6 after a SU win and 2-7 after an ATS setback.
The over has been the play in four of the last five matchups in this rivalry. However, the under is 5-2 in A&M’s last seven overall, 17-7 in its last 24 on the road, 8-2 in its last 10 conference games and 4-1 in Texas’ last five after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
NBA
Cleveland (33-8, 28-13 ATS) at Utah (25-18, 22-21 ATS)
One night after a thrilling buzzer-beating victory at Golden State, the Cavaliers conclude a four-game Western Conference road swing when they pay a visit to EnergySolutions Arena for a clash with the Jazz.
LeBron James drained a 20-foot jump shot right as the buzzer sounded Friday night to lead Cleveland past the Warriors 106-105, though it came up short as a 6½-point road favorite. The Cavaliers are on a 6-2 run (5-3 ATS), and last night’s result ended a string of 10 straight Cleveland contests where the SU winner had covered the spread.
Utah has been idle since Wednesday, when it went to Houston and lost 108-99 as a 5½-point road underdog. Jerry Sloan’s squad has alternated SU wins and losses in its last six games, but it is 1-5 ATS during this stretch, including three consecutive non-covers. The Jazz are 17-4 at Energy Solutions Arena, but just 12-9 ATS, including consecutive non-covers against the TWolves and Pacers in their last two at home.
The Jazz have scored 99 points or more in 11 of their last 12 games, including the last three in a row. However, they’ve allowed 107 points or more in three straight contests, five of their last six and seven of their last 10. Tonight, Utah runs up against an opponent that is giving up only 90 ppg overall and 91.9 ppg on the road. In fact, the Warriors on Friday became just the seventh team to crack triple digits against the Cavaliers this season.
Cleveland has been money in the bank against Utah in recent years, going 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS the last five years in Salt Lake City. Back on Nov. 15, the Cavaliers rolled to a 105-93 victory over Utah as a 10½-point home chalk, as the home team improved to 5-0 SU in the last five series meetings. The Jazz won the last two at EnergySolutions Arena by a total of three points.
The Cavaliers are on ATS runs of 38-16 overall, 11-3 against the Western Conference, 7-1 versus Northwest Division foes, 5-1 on Saturday, 5-1 when playing back-to-back nights and 14-6 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, in addition to their 1-5 ATS slump overall, the Jazz have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 against the Central Division. However, despite their mediocre pointspread record at home this year, Utah is 51-25-2 ATS in its last 78 at Energy Solutions Arena dating back to 2006.
For Cleveland, the under is on runs of 8-3 against the Western Conference, 4-1 against the Northwest Division and 5-2 when playing on back-to-back nights. Otherwise, though, the over is on streaks of 6-2 for Cleveland on Saturday, 10-2 for Utah overall, 5-1 for Utah at home, 5-2 in this rivalry overall and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Salt Lake City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and OVER
Maryland (13-5, 6-4-2 ATS) at (2) Duke (17-1, 9-7-1 ATS)
Streaking Duke, looking to ascend to No. 1 in the rankings, takes on Maryland in an ACC battle at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
The Blue Devils rolled over North Carolina State 73-56 Tuesday for their ninth straight win, but they fell short of covering as a heavy 20-point home chalk in dropping to 1-3-1 ATS in their last five outings. For the season, Duke has averaged 80.1 points per game on 47.2 percent shooting, but those numbers have dipped over the past five games to 72.8 ppg on 44.7 percent shooting. Defensively, the Blue Devils are yielding just 60.8 ppg in their last five contests, nearly matching their season average of 60.3.
The Terrapins beat Virginia 84-78 Tuesday night to end a two-game SU skid, but they failed to cover laying 9½ points at home, halting a two-game ATS uptick. Over the last five games, Maryland has narrowly outscored its opponents (70.0-68.6 ppg), well off its average margin of nearly 10 ppg for the entire season (73.2-63.6), primarily due to the Terps shooting just 39.8 percent from the floor – including a dismal 25.6 percent from three-point range.
Duke won both of last year’s meetings, going 1-0-1 ATS, with the push coming in a 77-65 home win as a 12-point favorite. This rivalry has been pretty even in recent years, as the two squads have split the last 10 contests, with Maryland holding a 5-4-1 ATS edge.
The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after a non-cover, but they are on pointspread skids of 1-6-1 on Saturday and 4-9-1 in conference. The Terrapins are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven ACC tilts, but they are on pointspread runs of 5-1-1 after a SU win, 4-1 on the highway and 7-2-1 in Saturday games.
The under for Duke is on tears of 19-7 overall, 8-0 in the ACC, 6-1 after a SU win, 11-5 after a non-cover and 16-5 at Cameron Indoor. Likewise, the under for Maryland is on rolls of 14-6 overall, 6-1 after a SU win, 4-1 on the road, 11-3 against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 7-3 in conference play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Kentucky (15-4, 9-4-1 ATS ) at Alabama (12-6, 6-7 ATS)
Kentucky aims to continue its run of success when it travels to Tuscaloosa for an SEC contest against Alabama at Coleman Coliseum.
The Wildcats topped Auburn 73-64 Wednesday for their 10th win in the last 11 games, but they fell short of covering as an 11-point home chalk, which ended a five-game ATS surge. Kentucky is off to a 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) start in conference play, with the win over the Tigers being the closest of those contests, as the Wildcats have averaged 75.25 ppg while giving up just 60.25. That includes blowout road wins against Georgia (68-45) and a ranked Tennessee squad (90-72). Over the last five games, Kentucky is shooting a solid 49.4 percent, including 42.3 percent from three-point range
The Crimson Tide edged Mississippi 76-73 as a 6½-point home favorite Wednesday, ending a two-game SU hiccup but failing to cash for the third straight contest. Alabama has gone 2-3 SU and ATS in its last five games, working at a deficit in averaging 69.0 ppg while giving up 73.2. The Crimson Tide are shooting 44.3 percent from the field in that span, which is actually better than their season-long average of 43.8, but they have struggled from long distance in shooting just 25.8 percent over the past five games.
Kentucky is 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight clashes between these two teams, winning each of the past two years on its home floor, including a 62-52 victory giving 6½ points last February. The favorite has cashed in the last four meetings.
The Wildcats are on several positive pointspread streaks, including 5-1 overall, 4-0 in roadies, 8-1 after a non-cover, 6-1 against winning teams, 9-3 on Saturday and 6-2 in SEC play. The Tide are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games versus teams with a winning percentage above .600, but they are on a 2-5 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road mark.
The under for Kentucky is on runs of 6-1 after an ATS loss, 4-1 in the SEC, 8-3 on Saturday and 7-3 against winning teams, and in this rivalry, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings at Coleman and 7-3 in the last 10 contests overall. However, the over for Alabama is on stretches of 8-2 overall, 6-1 at home, 5-1 after a SU win and 4-1 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY
(22) Memphis (15-3, 10-7 ATS) at Tennessee (12-5, 7-7-1 ATS)
Instate rivals square off in a non-conference clash when red-hot Memphis makes the trip to Knoxville to face Tennessee at Thompson-Boling Arena.
The Tigers fried Rice 80-52 Wednesday, narrowly covering as an overwhelming 26-point home chalk as they ran their winning streak to nine games (6-2 ATS in lined contests). For the season, Memphis has outscored opponents by an average of more than 16 ppg (77.4-61.20); however, on the road, the Tigers average 66.0 ppg while giving up a shade more than that at 66.3.
The Volunteers are coming off a victory over another instate rival, knocking off SEC foe Vanderbilt 76-63 laying two points on the road Tuesday to end a two-game ATS hiccup. Tennessee is among the top scoring teams in the nation, putting up 82.9 ppg (eighth), and the Vols are even better on their home floor, averaging 85.9 ppg in outscoring opponents by just over 11 ppg (allowing 74.8 ppg).
Tennessee has cashed in the last four clashes between these two (2-2 SU), including a 66-62 road win last February catching 6½ points. The underdog is on a 6-0 ATS tear in this series, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests.
The Tigers are on ATS upticks of 6-2 overall and 5-2 after a SU win, but they also carry negative ATS trends of 0-4 against the SEC, 1-5 on the highway, 2-6 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 3-8 after a SU win of more than 20 points. The Volunteers are on ATS dips of 1-5-1 after a spread-cover and 1-4 against teams with a win percentage above .600, but they sport positive ATS streaks of 7-1 against Conference USA and 7-3 at home against teams with a winning road record.
The under for Memphis is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 4-1 after a SU win and 7-2 after a spread-cover, but the over for Tennessee is on stretches of 5-2 overall, 5-1 on Saturday, 4-1 after a SU win and 4-1 in non-conference play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Baylor (15-3, 6-4 ATS) at (6) Oklahoma (18-1, 8-6 ATS)
Oklahoma goes after its seventh straight victory when it hosts Baylor in a Big 12 meeting at the Lloyd Noble Center.
The Sooners turned back Nebraska 72-61 Wednesday as a 13-point home favorite, notching their sixth win in a row but ending a 3-0 ATS run. Oklahoma has had solid numbers on offense recently, averaging 76.0 ppg on 47.2 percent shooting (35.9 percent from three-point range) over the past five games. But defense has been the key in that stretch, as the Sooners are holding opponents to a stifling 35.6 percent from the floor (60.8 ppg).
The Bears ripped Kansas State 83-65 as a 3½-point road pup Wednesday for their second straight win and cover, following an 0-3 ATS stretch (1-2 SU). Baylor has averaged 82.0 ppg on 48.1 percent shooting in its last five starts, including 42.6 percent from long distance, but they’ve also given up 77 ppg on 45.5 percent shooting, with opponents hitting three-pointers at a 44 percent clip.
Oklahoma has owned this rivalry, winning the last 28 games SU, including all 24 since the formation of the Big 12. Last year, these two teams split the cash, with the Sooners winning 77-71 at Baylor getting 4½ points, then eking out a 92-91 overtime home win as a 5½-point chalk. Oklahoma is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the favorite is on an 11-5-2 ATS roll.
The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record, and they are on a 5-2 ATS run in Saturday games. The Bears are on a handful of positive ATS runs, including 5-1 on Saturday, 14-5 on the road, 13-5 in roadies against teams with a winning home mark, 21-9 after a spread-cover and 17-8 following a SU win.
The under for Oklahoma is on runs of 7-0 on Saturday and 9-2 in Big 12 play, but the over is 6-1 in the Sooners’ last seven at home, and the over for Baylor is on sprees of 21-7 overall, 6-1 against winning teams, 12-3 on the highway, 20-7 on Saturday and 36-16 against the Big 12. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four straight meetings in Norman and six of the last seven overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA and OVER
(13) UCLA (15-3, 8-9 ATS) at Washington (14-4, 10-6 ATS)
UCLA, coming off a tight victory across the state in Pullman, heads to Seattle for a Pac-10 clash with surging Washington.
The Bruins nearly blew a 13-point halftime lead at Washington State on Thursday, barely holding on for a 61-59 victory, falling short as a five-point road chalk. The win came on the heels of last Saturday’s 61-58 overtime home loss to Arizona State. For the season, UCLA has outscored opponents by more than 16 ppg (74.7-58.6), but that margin has been tighter on the road (68.2-61.4) and over the last five games (69.8-62..
The Huskies beat Southern Cal 78-73 as a 6½-point home chalk Thursday for their third straight win (2-1 ATS) and their 12th victory in the last 13 games (7-4 ATS in lined contests). Washington has been racking up the points in Pac-10 play, averaging 80.7 ppg while giving up 69.7 in six contests so far, and for the season, the Huskies have outscored opponents by an average of more than 15 ppg (80.4-65.2) on their home floor.
Washington has covered in the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-1 SU), including a 71-61 home win last February as a nine-point underdog. In fact, the ‘dog has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams.
The Bruins are on ATS rolls of 36-16-1 on the road, 35-16-1 in roadies against teams with a winning home mark, 38-18 after a pointspread setback and 6-2 against winning teams. The Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last five Saturday games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games after a non-cover, but they are on ATS declines of 1-7 at home against teams with a winning road record and 1-4 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
The under is on a 6-1 streak for both UCLA and Washington when they face winning teams, and in this rivalry, the total has gone low in six of the last seven meetings overall and four straight in Seattle. However, the over for the Huskies is on runs of 5-0 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 10-1 in Pac-10 play, 10-2 on Saturday and 4-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Wisconsin (12-6, 7-9 ATS) at (25) Illinois (16-3, 11-4 ATS)
Wisconsin takes a three-game losing skid to Assembly Hall for a Big Ten battle with Illinois, which has lost five in a row in this rivalry.
The Badgers started Big Ten play with three straight wins (2-1 ATS), but have since dropped three consecutive league contests, including back-to-back overtime losses to Minnesota at home (78-74 as a 6½-point favorite) and Iowa on the road (73-69 as a 3½-point chalk). Prior to those two setbacks, Wisconsin had allowed more than 70 points just three times in its first 15 games.
Illinois improved to 4-2 (5-1 ATS) in conference action with Tuesday’s 67-49 rout of Ohio State, easily cashing as a 7½-point home chalk. The Illini have covered the spread in four straight games, including all three Big Ten home games. Over their last five contests, they’re averaging just 66 ppg (46.3 percent shooting) but allowing only 56.4 ppg (40.2 percent). Illinois has held 16 of 19 opponents to less than 65 points, with nine of the last 12 foes scoring less than 60.
Wisconsin has won five in a row against Illinois (4-1 ATS), including two straight victories in Assembly Hall. Last season, the Badgers posted three double-digit victories over the Illini, prevailing 70-60 but falling short as a 10½-point home favorite, 71-57 as a one-point road chalk and 61-48 as a seven-point favorite in the Big Ten tournament title game. The visitor has cashed in six straight regular-season meetings in this series, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
Although they’ve failed to cash in four of their last five games overall, the Badgers are on positive ATS runs of 12-5 on the road, 4-1 on Saturday and 8-2 after a non-cover. Illinois carries nothing but strong ATS streaks into this game, including 5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 7-0 on Saturday, 8-3 after a victory and 6-1 against teams with a winning record.
The over is 6-2 in Wisconsin’s last eight games overall, but otherwise the under is on stretches of 16-5 for Wisconsin on Saturday, 6-2 for the Illini overall, 4-0 for the Illini at home, 5-2 for the Illini in Big Ten play, 8-0 for the Illini on Saturday and 36-16-1 for the Illini following an ATS win. Lastly, the under has hit in five of the last seven head-to-head meetings at Assembly Hall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(3) UConn (17-1, 6-7 ATS) at (19) Notre Dame (12-5, 4-7 ATS)
Notre Dame continues a grueling run of games against Top 25 opponents when it returns to South Bend, Ind., in search of its 44th straight home win when it hosts streaking Connecticut, which has won six in a row.
The Fighting Irish are coming off back-to-back Big East road losses to No. 23 Louisville (83-73 in overtime as a 6½-point underdog) and No. 8 Syracuse (93-74 as a 3½-point underdog). Notre Dame is in the midst of a stretch where it is playing five straight games against ranked foes – all Big East teams – and seven of eight against Top 25 competition.
The Huskies ran their winning streak to six in a row with Wednesday’s 89-83 victory over Villanova, but they came up short as a 9½-point home favorite, their third consecutive non-cover, which follows a three-game ATS winning streak. UConn has won its first three Big East road games (2-1 ATS) by an average of 12.3 ppg.
UConn, which lost its league opener to Georgetown at home, is 6-1 in the Big East (3-4 ATS), while the Irish is now 3-3 in league play (2-4 ATS).
The host has won seven consecutive meetings in this series (5-2 ATS), and Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes in South Bend. Last season, the Irish prevailed 73-67 at home, barely covering as a 5½-point chalk, but UConn got revenge with an 84-78 win as a 4½-point favorite. The last three games were decided by a total of 13 points and five of the last six had single-digit margins of victory.
Notre Dame puts up 80 ppg on 45.3 percent shooting (40.3 percent on three-pointers), while the Huskies net 79.3 ppg on 49.6 percent shooting (38 percent on three-pointers). Defensively, UConn surrenders just 62.6 ppg (38.7 percent) and the Irish yield 69.8 ppg (43 percent), but they’re allowing 79.8 ppg (47.7 percent) in Big East action.
The Huskies are in ATS funks of 3-5 overall (all in Big East play), 3-5 after a SU win and 1-4 after a non-cover, but they have cashed in seven of their last nine games on Saturday. Notre Dame is 0-5 ATS in its last five Saturday outings, but 4-1 ATS in its last five after an outright loss and 5-2 ATS in its last seven following a non-cover.
The under is 5-2 in UConn’s last seven games overall, but the over is on runs of 4-1 for UConn on Saturday, 20-9 for Notre Dame overall, 22-7 for Notre Dame in Big East play and 22-10 for Notre Dame on Saturday. Also, three of the last four series meetings in South Bend have hurdled the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(15) Xavier (16-2, 10-6 ATS) at LSU (15-3, 6-4 ATS)
Off to a perfect start in Atlantic 10 Conference play, Xavier takes a break from league action when it visits the Maravich Assembly Center in Baton Rouge for a clash with LSU.
Since suffering back-to-back blowout losses to Duke and Butler, Xavier has ripped off seven consecutive victories, going 6-0 ATS in lined action during this run. During the winning streak, the Musketeers have posted six double-digit routs, including five wins by 20 points or more. On Wednesday, they went to St. Bonaventure and rolled to an 84-64 win as an 11-point road chalk, improving to 5-0 SU and ATS in the Atlantic 10.
LSU is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run, with double-digit routs of SEC foes South Carolina (85-68), Ole Miss (83-51) and Mississippi State (81-57). The Tigers have won seven of their last nine, with five of the last six victories coming by double digits. Also, since an ugly 91-61 loss at Utah, LSU has turned up the heat on defense, allowing only 60.3 ppg in its first four SEC contests.
These squads, who have not faced each other recently, are very similar statistically. The Musketeers average 73.3 ppg (46.4 percent shooting) and give up 62.1 ppg (37.3 percent), while LSU puts up 76.1 ppg (46.4 percent) and allows 61.1 ppg (39 percent).
The Tigers have won 17 consecutive home games, going 14-0 at the Maravich Center this season (5-1 ATS in lined action). Meanwhile, Xavier is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS on the highway, including 5-0 SU and ATS in true road games. Going back to last season, the Musketeers have covered in six consecutive games on an opponent’s home court.
In addition to its ATS streaks of 6-0 overall and 6-0 on the road, Xavier is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 games against winning teams, but it has failed to cash in nine of its last 13 Saturday contests. LSU is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games, but otherwise is on positive pointspread streaks of 11-5 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-1 on Saturday, 9-3 after an outright win, 7-2 after a spread-cover and 7-3 against winning teams.
For Xavier, the over is on runs of 7-3 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-1 on Saturday, 5-0 in non-conference games and 5-2-1 versus the SEC. LSU has topped the total in four of its last five at home, but the under is 9-3 in its last 12 non-conference contests and 36-15 in its last 51 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Texas A&M (15-4, 5-6 ATS) at (14) Texas (13-4, 7-7 ATS)
Texas returns to Austin after consecutive Big 12 road games when it entertains rival Texas A&M, which has lost three of its first four league contests.
The Longhorns have alternated wins and losses in their last four and are just 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS) in their last seven. However, they followed up an uninspired 78-63 loss at Oklahoma as a 4½-point road underdog with Saturday’s 71-49 rout of Texas Tech as a 6½-point road favorite, halting an 0-3 ATS slide. Texas has held six of its last seven opponents under 70 points, but it is averaging just 69.3 ppg during this stretch.
The Aggies went to Lawrence, Kan., on Monday and got steamrolled by the Jayhawks, losing 73-53 as a 10½-point road underdog. Texas A&M has followed up a 10-game non-conference winning streak by starting the Big 12 season 1-3 SU and ATS, but the one victory came at home against then-No. 21 Baylor, an 84-73 romp as a 1½-point pup.
This rivalry has belonged to the home team, which has won nine straight regular-season meetings, going 7-1-1 ATS, including 5-0 ATS in the last five. Also, the favorite has cashed in each of the past four meetings. Last year, Texas A&M cruised to an 80-63 victory as a 3½-point home chalk, then went to Austin and got blasted 77-50 as a five-point underdog. The Aggies have lost five straight times in Austin, going 1-3-1 ATS, but they’re 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 series meetings overall.
The Longhorns have won 18 consecutive home games, including nine in a row hosting Big 12 foes. But they’re just 8-7 ATS during this stretch, including 5-4 ATS in league home games. Texas A&M is just 4-3 SU and ATS in road/neutral-site games, and they’ve lost four of their last five Big 12 roadies going back to last year’s visit to Texas, with all four defeats being by double digits.
Texas A&M is on ATS streaks of 7-3 on the road, 5-2 on Saturday, 7-1 after a non-cover, 6-1 after a loss and 25-12 when playing on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Longhorns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on Saturday, but otherwise are in pointspread funks of 1-4 at home, 2-6-1 in Big 12 play, 2-6 after a SU win and 2-7 after an ATS setback.
The over has been the play in four of the last five matchups in this rivalry. However, the under is 5-2 in A&M’s last seven overall, 17-7 in its last 24 on the road, 8-2 in its last 10 conference games and 4-1 in Texas’ last five after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
NBA
Cleveland (33-8, 28-13 ATS) at Utah (25-18, 22-21 ATS)
One night after a thrilling buzzer-beating victory at Golden State, the Cavaliers conclude a four-game Western Conference road swing when they pay a visit to EnergySolutions Arena for a clash with the Jazz.
LeBron James drained a 20-foot jump shot right as the buzzer sounded Friday night to lead Cleveland past the Warriors 106-105, though it came up short as a 6½-point road favorite. The Cavaliers are on a 6-2 run (5-3 ATS), and last night’s result ended a string of 10 straight Cleveland contests where the SU winner had covered the spread.
Utah has been idle since Wednesday, when it went to Houston and lost 108-99 as a 5½-point road underdog. Jerry Sloan’s squad has alternated SU wins and losses in its last six games, but it is 1-5 ATS during this stretch, including three consecutive non-covers. The Jazz are 17-4 at Energy Solutions Arena, but just 12-9 ATS, including consecutive non-covers against the TWolves and Pacers in their last two at home.
The Jazz have scored 99 points or more in 11 of their last 12 games, including the last three in a row. However, they’ve allowed 107 points or more in three straight contests, five of their last six and seven of their last 10. Tonight, Utah runs up against an opponent that is giving up only 90 ppg overall and 91.9 ppg on the road. In fact, the Warriors on Friday became just the seventh team to crack triple digits against the Cavaliers this season.
Cleveland has been money in the bank against Utah in recent years, going 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS the last five years in Salt Lake City. Back on Nov. 15, the Cavaliers rolled to a 105-93 victory over Utah as a 10½-point home chalk, as the home team improved to 5-0 SU in the last five series meetings. The Jazz won the last two at EnergySolutions Arena by a total of three points.
The Cavaliers are on ATS runs of 38-16 overall, 11-3 against the Western Conference, 7-1 versus Northwest Division foes, 5-1 on Saturday, 5-1 when playing back-to-back nights and 14-6 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, in addition to their 1-5 ATS slump overall, the Jazz have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 against the Central Division. However, despite their mediocre pointspread record at home this year, Utah is 51-25-2 ATS in its last 78 at Energy Solutions Arena dating back to 2006.
For Cleveland, the under is on runs of 8-3 against the Western Conference, 4-1 against the Northwest Division and 5-2 when playing on back-to-back nights. Otherwise, though, the over is on streaks of 6-2 for Cleveland on Saturday, 10-2 for Utah overall, 5-1 for Utah at home, 5-2 in this rivalry overall and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Salt Lake City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and OVER
Larry Ness Saturday
Larry Ness' LEGEND Play
I lost a big play on Michigan last Saturday, when the Wolverines collapsed at home against Ohio St (led 44-40 and lost 65-58). However, if there is one thing I've learned in 25 years in this business is to NOT let one play affect another. I believe Michigan's in a terrific spot tonight, so "here we go again!" Bill Carmody is a well respected head coach and is used to coaching at a school with high academic standards like Northwestern (see Princeton). That being said, last year's 8-22 mark (1-17 in the Big 10) could not have been a pleasant experience. In contrast, this year's 7-1 start (lone loss being 57-53 at Butler) had to put a smile on his face. The Wildcats have some size, with a 7-0 center in Rowley (4,2) plus two 6-8 forwards, Coble (15.6-5.1) and Shurna (7.6-3.3). The starting backcourt is sound with Moore (13.9-3.3-2.8) and Thompson (10.3-2.6-3.7) but there is little depth. By late December Northwestern began slumping and from 12/31-1/15 lost four straight which gave them five losses in six games after that 7-1 start. Then last Sunday, they upset then-No. 18 Minnesota 74-65, ending the Wildcats' 18-game losing slide against ranked opponents (last win over ranked opponent came in Feb of 2006). Minnesota led that game by three points at the half but missed 12 of its first 13 shots in the second half and watched as Northwestern scored 16 straight points. A 27 to 11 edge in FT attempts for Northwestern in the game didn't hurt either. That win was only a mild surprise but this past Wednesday, the Wildcats followed their win over Minnesota by upsetting No. 7 Michigan State 70-65 in East Lansing, ending the Spartans' 28-game home winning streak. What's going on here? Northwestern had not only had no success against ranked opponents as of late (see above) but entering the Minnesota game, had dropped 26 of its previous 27 Big 10 contests as well. Now, all of a sudden, it's two straight wins over ranked conference foes! The 'madness' stops here. Michigan has been ranked at times this year but comes into this game on a three-game losing streak. The Wolverines lost at Illinois prior to losing to Ohio State last Saturday and earlier this week, played a terrible game at Penn State, losing 73-58 (made just 5-of-30 three pointers). However, I fully expect John Beilein to have things straightened out here. Michigan is still 13-6 on the season, owning wins over two teams ranked fourth in the nation at the time, beating UCLA in Madison Square Garden in late November and Duke (here at Crisler Arena) on December 6. Last year's 10-22 season (5-13 in the Big 10) is a distant memory and I expect the Wolves' will have a few more "big wins" in them this year. A win over Northwestern is big only in terms of "stopping the bleeding," which is a must. Swingman Harris (18.1-7.4-4.6) and the 6-8 Sims (15.8-8.1) will be the two most talented players on the floor and with Arizona transfer Lucas-Perry now eligible (he's averaged 9.9 PPG in his 10 games), the Michigan backcourt is solid. Joining Perry are freshman Novak (6.7) and Douglass (5.1) plus sophomore Grady (5.5). Northwestern's offense is one of dribble penetration and Beilein's 1-3-1 zone should handle that just fine, playing with bigger and quicker athletes. Michigan really needs a confidence builder, while Northwestern is 'flying' way too high after back-to-back wins over ranked opponents. Beilein has been stuck on 499 career wins for three games now and his team gets him win No. 500 in a rout!
LEGEND play on Michigan
Larry's Daytime Dominator
Doc Sadler's 'Huskers are an odd team, which basically starts five guards. The 6-5 Dagunduro (10.6-3.6) and the 6-4 Anderson (5.8-4.6) are the team's best rebounders and six players average 23-plus minutes (McCray gets about 18 minutes, averaging 6.8-3.4), The 5-11 Harley (12.3-3.6-2.4) is the team's leading scorer, followed by Dagunduro, the 6-3 Henry (9.5-3.4-2.3) and the 6-2 Velander (9.5). Nebraska is 11-1 at home this year, with its lone loss coming right before Christmas (12/23), when Maryland-Balt Co. came to Lincoln and shot 57.1 percent in a two-point win. That was just "one of those games." Nebraska is coming off a Wednesday loss at Norman, where the 'Huskers gave the No. 6 Sooners all they wanted. Nebraska led 38-32 at the half but finally succumbed, as Blake Griffin was too much. The 6-10 sophomore had 27 points and 18 rebounds for his 15th double-double on the year. Nebraska's defense frustrated Oklahoma for a good part of the game but Griffin was just relentless. The good news here is that Oklahoma State has no Blake Griffin. In fact, the Cowboys look a lot like the 'Huskers. OSU lost its best big man from LY, the 6-9 Dove (9.5-5.7) and this year's lone big man of any consequence, the 6-11 Thomas (averaging 8.3-3.9 in about 20 minutes per game), decided to leave the team after seven games and transfer. Travis Ford (former Kentucky player and a successful head coach at U Mass) is in his first year at Stillwater and this year's team is much like the last few OSU ones. The Cowboys are a tough 'out' at home but get them away from Stillwater and they are very vulnerable. When OSU beat Texas A&M last Feb 16, the victory ended a 19-game road losing streak for the Cowboys and Ford hasn't been able to do much to change things this year. The Cowboys lost 83-71 to Gonzaga and 94-79 to Michigan State in a November tourney in Orlando, before beating Siena 77-68. The team's only true road games this year have been a win at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi plus losses at Washington (not close) and Baylor. The 6-6 Anderson (17.9-5.5) and two 6-5 players, Muonelo (15.9-9.8) and Harris (14.7-4.9) are a very talented trio (Muonelo is quite a rebounder!). PG Eaton (13.7-3.5-5.8) and freshman guard Page (10.2) round out the team's main players. Ford 'loved' to shoot the 'three' as a player at Kentucky and this team is in his mold, as the Cowboys average 86.0 PPG (4th) and shoot 42.0 percent from beyond the arc (2nd). However, Sadler's team can play defense (allows 56.8 PPG / 31.3 percent on threes!) and OSU's effectiveness drops considerably away from Stillwater. Nebraska can and will dictate a slower and more methodical pace than OSU would like. Just see its game vs Missouri on Jan 10, where the 'Huskers beat the Tigers 56-51, while not allowing a single fast-break point (Tigers are averaging 84.8 PPG). OSU won 77-63 last year in Stillwater but here in the friendly confines of the Devaney Sports Center ('Huskers are 25-4 SU at home since the beginning of last year), it will be a much different 'story.'
Daytime Dominator on Nebraska
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider
Lorenzo Romar has had some memorable years in Seattle with three straight NCAA teams (two Sweet 16s) but two years ago his 19-13 team went uninvited to the postseason and last year's 16-16 team lost at home 72-71 to Valparaiso in the new CBI tourney to end the year 16-17. However, Washington has an NCAA bid in their sights this year, opening 14-4 (5-1 in the Pac 10). The guard combo is one of old and new, with senior Dentmon (14.2-2.9-2.3) being joined by 5-8 freshman Thomas (15.9-3.1-3.1), who is reminding many of Nate Robinson. Overton (4.7) and Turner (3.9) are the top reserves. The 6-7 Brockman (15.1-10.8) is now a senior (seems like he's been there forever!) and is having a superb season, despite going 0-for-8 from the floor on Thursday vs USC (four points). The 6-6 Pondexter (10.1-5.8) and 6-8 freshman Gant (3.4-3.7) join him in the starting lineup with 6-9 sophomore Bryan-Amaning (8.9-5.4) providing excellent play off the bench. While Washington didn't cover vs USC (missed by a point!), the fact that the Huskies won with Brockman having such an awful game, should give Romar great comfort. Guards Thomas and Dentmon combined for 39 points vs the Trojans and here Washington goes for a sweep of the LA schools against the Bruins. No. 13 UCLA is 15-3 (also 5-1 in the Pac 10) and comes off a hardly inspiring 61-59 win in Pullman over Washington State. However, let's not underestimate the Bruins or head coach Ben Howland. Collison (14.6-5.4 APG) is joined by freshman Holiday (9.5-3.7-2.9) in the starting backcourt with swingman Shipp (11.6) and two 6-9 players, Aboya (9.0-5.3) and Dragovic (7.9-3.4) rounding out the starting lineup. Dragovic is off a career-high 20 points vs WSU and Aboya has made excellent strides this year, after averaging 2.9-2.2 LY. The same can be said about the 6-5 Roll (7.8), who is up from 2.8 PPG last season. The 6-8 Keefe (3.9-4.3) and 6-5 freshman Lee (4.5) are also solid contributors, although Lee has been bothered by an injury, playing in just two of the team's last seven games. UCLA's victory at Pullman makes it 11 wins in its last 12 (since a 68-64 loss at Texas), with that only loss coming at home to ASU, 61-58 in OT. UCLA is known for its defense (58.6 PPG allowed) but Ben Howland's style of play (rough and tumble) is not always as effective on the road as it is in Pauley Pavilion, where the refs are more tolerant. There's no denying UCLA's three consecutive appearances in the Final Four under Howland but this Washington team he'll face today is the school's "most complete" team since Brandon Roy left for the NBA in 2006. The Huskies have won 12 of 13 games overall and are 11-1 SU at home (lone loss was 88-85 in OT to Cal) and Washington has beaten UCLA four consecutive times here in Seattle, including last year's upset of the then-No. 5 Bruins. The Bruins look vulnerable, having lost at home in OT to Arizona State last weekend and at Washington State on Thursday, the Cougars missed a potentially winning shot at the end of that two-point UCLA win. Led by Brockman, Washington is tops in the nation in rebound margin (plus-11) and LY's 16-17 team beat UCLA 71-61 at this site. This year's version, which is "new and improved," should do the same.
Las Vegas Insider on Washington
Larry's Oddsmaker Error
Steve Alford won 24 games in his first year at New Mexico but his team was still regulated to the NIT and the Lobos fell in the first round, at home no less. Gone from LY's team is the 6-6 Giddens, who led in both scoring (16.3) and rebounding (8.8). He did get the 6-5 Danridge back this year (missed all of last season with a broken leg) and the 6-5 senior is leading the team in scoring (13.3-4.2). New Mexico doesn't lack talent, although the Lobos don't have too much size. The best inside player is the 6-9 Faris (11.5-5.9), while the 6-7 Toppert (10.6-3.1) is a quality sixth-man. Swingman Martinez (10.2-3.1) is another solid contributor but Alford's backcourt is young. Last year's star freshman was PG Gary (7.6-4.1 APG) and he returns to join two freshman in TY's backcourt, 6-5 big guard McDonald (8.8-3.9) and PG Garth (4.7-3.7 APG). However, the deal with New Mexico is really the same, the Lobos are a tough home team in "the Pit," but are a very vulnerable one away from Albuquerque. TCU knew it was time for change in Fort Worth, as in six years, head coach Neil Daugherty had produced just ONE winning season and a 75-108 overall mark. In came Jim Christian from Kent State, which over the last 10 seasons, is one of just SEVEN Division I programs with at least 20 wins in each season. Christian was in charge for the last six, going 138-58 overall. His challenge in Fort Worth was that LY's team was just 14-16 and lost 48.7 PPG and 25.0 RPG from nine players no longer on this year's team. So what? After a 1-3 start, Christian has led the Horned Frogs to 12 wins in their last 15 games and with a 4-1 conference mark, TCU sits atop the MWC standings. Seven players have participated in all 19 games and four of them are completely new to the program. Two JUCO transfers have been very good up front, the 6-9 Buljan (12.1-7.6) and the 6-6 Ruzgas (11.3-3.4). Two freshman guards have been a major help in the backcourt, Moss (9.4-2.3-2.5) and the 6-5 Butler (3.8-3.6). Returning from LY's team are the 6-8 Langford (14.0-5.3) plus guards Ebie (6.1-4.1 APG) and Mitchem (6.1). While Alford has more name recognition, insiders of CBB would readily acknowledge that Christian is the far better coach. Since the first of the year, TCU has won at Texas Tech and upset UNLV here in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs lost their first home game of the season to Nebraska but have since won NINE straight in Daniel-Meyer Coliseum. TCU knows how to play defense, allowing 61.8 PPG and is holding opponents to just 30.3 percent from behind the line. New Mexico's "three-point gunners" won't back off and that should be the Lobos' undoing. The host has won and covered the last four in this series and nothing should change tonight! Why are the Lobos favored in this one?
Oddsmaker's Error on TCU
Larry Ness' LEGEND Play
I lost a big play on Michigan last Saturday, when the Wolverines collapsed at home against Ohio St (led 44-40 and lost 65-58). However, if there is one thing I've learned in 25 years in this business is to NOT let one play affect another. I believe Michigan's in a terrific spot tonight, so "here we go again!" Bill Carmody is a well respected head coach and is used to coaching at a school with high academic standards like Northwestern (see Princeton). That being said, last year's 8-22 mark (1-17 in the Big 10) could not have been a pleasant experience. In contrast, this year's 7-1 start (lone loss being 57-53 at Butler) had to put a smile on his face. The Wildcats have some size, with a 7-0 center in Rowley (4,2) plus two 6-8 forwards, Coble (15.6-5.1) and Shurna (7.6-3.3). The starting backcourt is sound with Moore (13.9-3.3-2.8) and Thompson (10.3-2.6-3.7) but there is little depth. By late December Northwestern began slumping and from 12/31-1/15 lost four straight which gave them five losses in six games after that 7-1 start. Then last Sunday, they upset then-No. 18 Minnesota 74-65, ending the Wildcats' 18-game losing slide against ranked opponents (last win over ranked opponent came in Feb of 2006). Minnesota led that game by three points at the half but missed 12 of its first 13 shots in the second half and watched as Northwestern scored 16 straight points. A 27 to 11 edge in FT attempts for Northwestern in the game didn't hurt either. That win was only a mild surprise but this past Wednesday, the Wildcats followed their win over Minnesota by upsetting No. 7 Michigan State 70-65 in East Lansing, ending the Spartans' 28-game home winning streak. What's going on here? Northwestern had not only had no success against ranked opponents as of late (see above) but entering the Minnesota game, had dropped 26 of its previous 27 Big 10 contests as well. Now, all of a sudden, it's two straight wins over ranked conference foes! The 'madness' stops here. Michigan has been ranked at times this year but comes into this game on a three-game losing streak. The Wolverines lost at Illinois prior to losing to Ohio State last Saturday and earlier this week, played a terrible game at Penn State, losing 73-58 (made just 5-of-30 three pointers). However, I fully expect John Beilein to have things straightened out here. Michigan is still 13-6 on the season, owning wins over two teams ranked fourth in the nation at the time, beating UCLA in Madison Square Garden in late November and Duke (here at Crisler Arena) on December 6. Last year's 10-22 season (5-13 in the Big 10) is a distant memory and I expect the Wolves' will have a few more "big wins" in them this year. A win over Northwestern is big only in terms of "stopping the bleeding," which is a must. Swingman Harris (18.1-7.4-4.6) and the 6-8 Sims (15.8-8.1) will be the two most talented players on the floor and with Arizona transfer Lucas-Perry now eligible (he's averaged 9.9 PPG in his 10 games), the Michigan backcourt is solid. Joining Perry are freshman Novak (6.7) and Douglass (5.1) plus sophomore Grady (5.5). Northwestern's offense is one of dribble penetration and Beilein's 1-3-1 zone should handle that just fine, playing with bigger and quicker athletes. Michigan really needs a confidence builder, while Northwestern is 'flying' way too high after back-to-back wins over ranked opponents. Beilein has been stuck on 499 career wins for three games now and his team gets him win No. 500 in a rout!
LEGEND play on Michigan
Larry's Daytime Dominator
Doc Sadler's 'Huskers are an odd team, which basically starts five guards. The 6-5 Dagunduro (10.6-3.6) and the 6-4 Anderson (5.8-4.6) are the team's best rebounders and six players average 23-plus minutes (McCray gets about 18 minutes, averaging 6.8-3.4), The 5-11 Harley (12.3-3.6-2.4) is the team's leading scorer, followed by Dagunduro, the 6-3 Henry (9.5-3.4-2.3) and the 6-2 Velander (9.5). Nebraska is 11-1 at home this year, with its lone loss coming right before Christmas (12/23), when Maryland-Balt Co. came to Lincoln and shot 57.1 percent in a two-point win. That was just "one of those games." Nebraska is coming off a Wednesday loss at Norman, where the 'Huskers gave the No. 6 Sooners all they wanted. Nebraska led 38-32 at the half but finally succumbed, as Blake Griffin was too much. The 6-10 sophomore had 27 points and 18 rebounds for his 15th double-double on the year. Nebraska's defense frustrated Oklahoma for a good part of the game but Griffin was just relentless. The good news here is that Oklahoma State has no Blake Griffin. In fact, the Cowboys look a lot like the 'Huskers. OSU lost its best big man from LY, the 6-9 Dove (9.5-5.7) and this year's lone big man of any consequence, the 6-11 Thomas (averaging 8.3-3.9 in about 20 minutes per game), decided to leave the team after seven games and transfer. Travis Ford (former Kentucky player and a successful head coach at U Mass) is in his first year at Stillwater and this year's team is much like the last few OSU ones. The Cowboys are a tough 'out' at home but get them away from Stillwater and they are very vulnerable. When OSU beat Texas A&M last Feb 16, the victory ended a 19-game road losing streak for the Cowboys and Ford hasn't been able to do much to change things this year. The Cowboys lost 83-71 to Gonzaga and 94-79 to Michigan State in a November tourney in Orlando, before beating Siena 77-68. The team's only true road games this year have been a win at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi plus losses at Washington (not close) and Baylor. The 6-6 Anderson (17.9-5.5) and two 6-5 players, Muonelo (15.9-9.8) and Harris (14.7-4.9) are a very talented trio (Muonelo is quite a rebounder!). PG Eaton (13.7-3.5-5.8) and freshman guard Page (10.2) round out the team's main players. Ford 'loved' to shoot the 'three' as a player at Kentucky and this team is in his mold, as the Cowboys average 86.0 PPG (4th) and shoot 42.0 percent from beyond the arc (2nd). However, Sadler's team can play defense (allows 56.8 PPG / 31.3 percent on threes!) and OSU's effectiveness drops considerably away from Stillwater. Nebraska can and will dictate a slower and more methodical pace than OSU would like. Just see its game vs Missouri on Jan 10, where the 'Huskers beat the Tigers 56-51, while not allowing a single fast-break point (Tigers are averaging 84.8 PPG). OSU won 77-63 last year in Stillwater but here in the friendly confines of the Devaney Sports Center ('Huskers are 25-4 SU at home since the beginning of last year), it will be a much different 'story.'
Daytime Dominator on Nebraska
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider
Lorenzo Romar has had some memorable years in Seattle with three straight NCAA teams (two Sweet 16s) but two years ago his 19-13 team went uninvited to the postseason and last year's 16-16 team lost at home 72-71 to Valparaiso in the new CBI tourney to end the year 16-17. However, Washington has an NCAA bid in their sights this year, opening 14-4 (5-1 in the Pac 10). The guard combo is one of old and new, with senior Dentmon (14.2-2.9-2.3) being joined by 5-8 freshman Thomas (15.9-3.1-3.1), who is reminding many of Nate Robinson. Overton (4.7) and Turner (3.9) are the top reserves. The 6-7 Brockman (15.1-10.8) is now a senior (seems like he's been there forever!) and is having a superb season, despite going 0-for-8 from the floor on Thursday vs USC (four points). The 6-6 Pondexter (10.1-5.8) and 6-8 freshman Gant (3.4-3.7) join him in the starting lineup with 6-9 sophomore Bryan-Amaning (8.9-5.4) providing excellent play off the bench. While Washington didn't cover vs USC (missed by a point!), the fact that the Huskies won with Brockman having such an awful game, should give Romar great comfort. Guards Thomas and Dentmon combined for 39 points vs the Trojans and here Washington goes for a sweep of the LA schools against the Bruins. No. 13 UCLA is 15-3 (also 5-1 in the Pac 10) and comes off a hardly inspiring 61-59 win in Pullman over Washington State. However, let's not underestimate the Bruins or head coach Ben Howland. Collison (14.6-5.4 APG) is joined by freshman Holiday (9.5-3.7-2.9) in the starting backcourt with swingman Shipp (11.6) and two 6-9 players, Aboya (9.0-5.3) and Dragovic (7.9-3.4) rounding out the starting lineup. Dragovic is off a career-high 20 points vs WSU and Aboya has made excellent strides this year, after averaging 2.9-2.2 LY. The same can be said about the 6-5 Roll (7.8), who is up from 2.8 PPG last season. The 6-8 Keefe (3.9-4.3) and 6-5 freshman Lee (4.5) are also solid contributors, although Lee has been bothered by an injury, playing in just two of the team's last seven games. UCLA's victory at Pullman makes it 11 wins in its last 12 (since a 68-64 loss at Texas), with that only loss coming at home to ASU, 61-58 in OT. UCLA is known for its defense (58.6 PPG allowed) but Ben Howland's style of play (rough and tumble) is not always as effective on the road as it is in Pauley Pavilion, where the refs are more tolerant. There's no denying UCLA's three consecutive appearances in the Final Four under Howland but this Washington team he'll face today is the school's "most complete" team since Brandon Roy left for the NBA in 2006. The Huskies have won 12 of 13 games overall and are 11-1 SU at home (lone loss was 88-85 in OT to Cal) and Washington has beaten UCLA four consecutive times here in Seattle, including last year's upset of the then-No. 5 Bruins. The Bruins look vulnerable, having lost at home in OT to Arizona State last weekend and at Washington State on Thursday, the Cougars missed a potentially winning shot at the end of that two-point UCLA win. Led by Brockman, Washington is tops in the nation in rebound margin (plus-11) and LY's 16-17 team beat UCLA 71-61 at this site. This year's version, which is "new and improved," should do the same.
Las Vegas Insider on Washington
Larry's Oddsmaker Error
Steve Alford won 24 games in his first year at New Mexico but his team was still regulated to the NIT and the Lobos fell in the first round, at home no less. Gone from LY's team is the 6-6 Giddens, who led in both scoring (16.3) and rebounding (8.8). He did get the 6-5 Danridge back this year (missed all of last season with a broken leg) and the 6-5 senior is leading the team in scoring (13.3-4.2). New Mexico doesn't lack talent, although the Lobos don't have too much size. The best inside player is the 6-9 Faris (11.5-5.9), while the 6-7 Toppert (10.6-3.1) is a quality sixth-man. Swingman Martinez (10.2-3.1) is another solid contributor but Alford's backcourt is young. Last year's star freshman was PG Gary (7.6-4.1 APG) and he returns to join two freshman in TY's backcourt, 6-5 big guard McDonald (8.8-3.9) and PG Garth (4.7-3.7 APG). However, the deal with New Mexico is really the same, the Lobos are a tough home team in "the Pit," but are a very vulnerable one away from Albuquerque. TCU knew it was time for change in Fort Worth, as in six years, head coach Neil Daugherty had produced just ONE winning season and a 75-108 overall mark. In came Jim Christian from Kent State, which over the last 10 seasons, is one of just SEVEN Division I programs with at least 20 wins in each season. Christian was in charge for the last six, going 138-58 overall. His challenge in Fort Worth was that LY's team was just 14-16 and lost 48.7 PPG and 25.0 RPG from nine players no longer on this year's team. So what? After a 1-3 start, Christian has led the Horned Frogs to 12 wins in their last 15 games and with a 4-1 conference mark, TCU sits atop the MWC standings. Seven players have participated in all 19 games and four of them are completely new to the program. Two JUCO transfers have been very good up front, the 6-9 Buljan (12.1-7.6) and the 6-6 Ruzgas (11.3-3.4). Two freshman guards have been a major help in the backcourt, Moss (9.4-2.3-2.5) and the 6-5 Butler (3.8-3.6). Returning from LY's team are the 6-8 Langford (14.0-5.3) plus guards Ebie (6.1-4.1 APG) and Mitchem (6.1). While Alford has more name recognition, insiders of CBB would readily acknowledge that Christian is the far better coach. Since the first of the year, TCU has won at Texas Tech and upset UNLV here in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs lost their first home game of the season to Nebraska but have since won NINE straight in Daniel-Meyer Coliseum. TCU knows how to play defense, allowing 61.8 PPG and is holding opponents to just 30.3 percent from behind the line. New Mexico's "three-point gunners" won't back off and that should be the Lobos' undoing. The host has won and covered the last four in this series and nothing should change tonight! Why are the Lobos favored in this one?
Oddsmaker's Error on TCU
Great Lakes Sports
Utah State at Hawaii
Play: 4* Utah State
The Utah State Aggies are a very solid 4-1 ATS when playing on the road this year, and they are a perfect 5-0 ATS when playing on Saturday's this year. The Hawaii Rainbows is a dismal 4-8 ATS when playing at home this year, and they are a terrible 2-4 ATS after a conference game this year. We look for the Utah State Aggies to grab the road ATS Win & Cover tonight.
Utah State at Hawaii
Play: 4* Utah State
The Utah State Aggies are a very solid 4-1 ATS when playing on the road this year, and they are a perfect 5-0 ATS when playing on Saturday's this year. The Hawaii Rainbows is a dismal 4-8 ATS when playing at home this year, and they are a terrible 2-4 ATS after a conference game this year. We look for the Utah State Aggies to grab the road ATS Win & Cover tonight.
