Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-CFB bowls (Duke/A&M) (Duke/A&M)
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Duke at 8:00 ET.
Texas A&M had super-high expectations coming into 2013, off last year's 11-2 season which included a shocking 29-24 upset win at Alabama, a 41-13 rout of Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl plus of course, the Aggies had "Johnny Football," the first-ever freshman to win the Heisman Trophy coming back. "Johnny Football" sure didn't disappoint (his numbers this year are even better than when he won the Heisman, last year) but that A&M defense just wasn't up to the challenge.
This may just be Manziel's final game (I'm on record as saying he WON'T be an NFL starter) and I'm NOT convinced well see a highly-aroused effort from the Aggies, similar to the one we saw last year in the team's Cotton Bowl "beatdown" of an overrated Oklahoma team ("Big Game Blob" struck again!).
A&M's opponent in tonight's Chick-Fil-A Bowl is Duke, one of CFB's best 'storylines' in 2013. Right out of the "who'da thunk it department," Duke won 10 games for the first time in school history, as well as the ACC's Coastal Division title, outright. Yes, the "Dookies" were in over their heads vs Florida St in the ACC championship game but A&M is no FSU!
A&M went 0-4 ATS in road games this year and that defense allowed 28-plus points in NINE of12 games, SEVEN times allowing 31 points or more. David Cutcliffe is a terrific head coach and his Duke contingent should be VERY determined to prove it belongs on the big stage vs an elite opponent, after its 45-7 thumping against top-ranked Florida State in the ACC title game.
Duke has excellent balanced on offense, passing for 234.4 YPG and running for 173.7 YPG. Cutcliffe has been able to pull off the almost impossible task of successfully rotating QBs, with the duo Anthony Boone (9-1 as a starter) and Brandon Connette. Boone completed 63.9% of his throws and Connette 62.1%, with the two combining for 23 TD passes. Connette is a short-yardage specialist and has 13 rushing TDs.
A&M's rout of Oklahoma in last year's Cotton Bowl ended the school's run of SIX consecutive ATS bowl losses and let me add that A&M has a VERY bowl bowl history going 4-12 SU since an 'ugly' 10-2 loss to Fla St in the 1990 Cotton Bowl.
Duke played terribly in a 38-14 home loss to Ga Tech back on Sep 14 but from that point, until it got crushed by FSU in the ACC title game, the school had an 8-1 ATS run, including 5-0 as an underdog. "Front door" and "back door" opportunities for an ATS win are both viable options in this one. Take the points.