Dr Bob Monday Plays
NBA
3 Star Selection
New Orleans (-7 points or less) 103 WASHINGTON 89
01-Mar-04 04:05 PM Pacific Time
The Wizards are starting to point fingers at each other and they shouldn’t put up too much of a fight tonight against a Hornets team that have dominated them this season with a pair of double-digit wins that averaged 16 points. Both of those games were in New Orleans, but the Hornets ought to be able to win comfortably here on the road, especially given their loss at Memphis on Saturday, which will give them the proper motivation to take this game seriously. New Orleans qualifies in a very good 74-24-3 ATS big road favorite bounce-back situation and a 46-9-2 ATS subset of that angle applies. The Hornets also qualify in a solid 70-33 ATS road dominance situation. My ratings (with Stackhouse out for Washington) favor the Hornets by 6 ½ points and I’ll lay 7 points or less with them in a Best Bet while making them a 3-Star at -6 points or less.
Downgrade New Orleans to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are favored by more than 6 points.
COLLEGE
2 Star Selection
NORTHERN IOWA (+2 points or more) 70 Southern Illinois 65
01-Mar-04 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Southern Illinois is 17-0 in conference play and 24-2 overall, but the Panthers of Northern Iowa will not be intimated. Northern Iowa is a very experienced team (5 returning starters from last year’s team) and they’ve thrived in the underdog role since last February, going 15-4 ATS when getting points, including 4-0 ATS as a home underdog. The Panthers played competitively in their 10 point loss at Southern Illinois (as an 11 point underdog) and coach Greg McDermott will make the necessary adjustments to get his team to play well in this rematch. McDermott’s team is 10-2 ATS in same-season regular season revenge games in his 3 seasons as head coach, including 7-0 ATS as an underdog and Southern Illinois applies to a couple of negative situations tonight. The Salukis are coming off 3 home games and a narrow win in their last home game on Saturday, and they qualify in a negative 30-71-1 ATS post-last home game situation and a negative 37- 81-6 ATS situation that plays against very good teams on the road after 3 or more consecutive home games. The record is 0-5 ATS for such teams when both angles apply in the same game and my ratings favor Southern Illinois by 2 ½ points, so the line is fair. I’ll take 2 points or more with Northern Iowa in a 2-Star Best Bet.
2 Star Selection
AIR FORCE (-10 points or less) 66 San Diego State 49
01-Mar-04 06:00 PM Pacific Time
Air Force is an incredible 53-28-2 ATS in 4 seasons under coach Joe Scott and the surprising Falcons qualify in a very strong 46-12-2 ATS last home game situation that plays on teams that are unbeaten at home for the season when hosting another good team. My ratings favor Air Force by 10 ½ points in this game and I see no reason why the Falcons can’t repeat their effort at San Diego State, which resulted in a 57-43 victory. I’ll lay 10 points or less with the Falcons in a 2-Star Best Bet.
3 Star Selection
BYU 70 Utah 53
01-Mar-04 09:00 PM Pacific Time
BYU has one of the nation’s strongest home courts and the Cougars are now 33-8-2 ATS at home when not favored by more than 16 points. I expect another good effort at home tonight, as the Cougars will be fired up for Senior night and seeking revenge for an 8 point loss at Utah at the end of January. The Cougars apply to a very good 46-12-2 ATS last home game situation that plays on teams that are unbeaten at home for the season when hosting another good team and they also apply in a solid 115-58-8 ATS home revenge situation tonight. My ratings favor BYU by 8 ½ points in this game, so we also have plenty of line value on our side as well. The Cougars look like a very good play tonight.
Upgrade BYU to a 4-