Cajun-Sports Executive NFL Report- Monday
5-2 NFL Thur-Sun
Time / Date: 7:00 EST / Monday September 8 (ESPN)
Game: Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 1:22 EST September 7
Grade / Prediction: 3* Minnesota Vikings +2.5
Analysis:
The Green Bay Packers begin the 2008 campaign with a new leader, QB Aaron Rodgers and he begins his era on the NFL’s second largest stage, Monday Night Football.
Rodgers and the Pack will face Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field on Monday night. This divisional series was dominated by the Packers last season as they won 34 to 20 at home. That was their first SU/ATS win in this series at Lambeau since 2000.
There is a lot of excitement in Minnesota as fans anticipate what they believe will be a Vikings team that will make a run into the playoffs. The Vikings added All-Pro DE Jared Allen to an already stout defensive line to make the Vikings defense among the best in the NFL. The Vikings have two of the league’s best defensive tackles in Pat Williams and Kevin Williams and teams have simply stopped trying to run the ball against them.
Last season the Vikings allowed just 3.2 yards per rush and opponents only tried running the ball thirty-five percent of the time, which is below the NFL average of forty-three percent.
Minnesota’s offense revolves around second year back Adrian Peterson, who averaged 5.6 yards per rush while backup Chester Taylor ran for 848 yards at 5.4 yards per carry. While we do not believe they can keep up those incredible numbers they should still average around 5 yards per carry.
Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson posted pretty decent numbers for a first time starter, averaging 6.0 yards per pass play. QB Jackson should improve in his second full season as the starter and adding WR Bernard Berrian upgrades the receiving corps. Jackson needs to cut down on his interception rate, but it’s not a huge problem since the Vikings don’t throw the ball as much as most teams.
Rodgers looked good last season when he played against the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has a solid defensive unit and Rodgers averaged 6.3 yards per play in that contest. Rodgers has also looked good in the preseason, completing 68.5% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt on just one INT on 54 pass attempts. One complaint against Rodgers is he tends to hold onto the ball too long which has allowed him to be sacked 7 times in only 61 pass plays this preseason.
Ryan Grant became the Packs full time running back in Week 4 of the season last year and he averaged 4.7 yards per rush during that time. We don’t expect him to have that kind of success versus this Vikings defensive unit which is solid against the run, they allowed a league best 73.8 yards rushing per contest last season.
With the Packers thin at defensive tackle and having to contend with Adrian Peterson could spell trouble for this Packers team on Monday night. Too many questions for the Packers overall and a Vikings team with another year under their belts with Jackson and Peterson should have the advantage here.
On the technical front we see that in this series the underdog is 23-9 ATS. While the underdog when Minnesota plays on Monday night has a record of 12-2 ATS and the Vikings are 5-1 ATS their last six season openers.
Finally we have a system that tells us to Play Against teams that outgained their opponents by 0.75 yards per play last season, the record for this system is 36-12 ATS and tells us to Play On the Minnesota Vikings.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* MINNESOTA VIKINGS +2.5
Time / Date: 10:15 EST / Monday September 8 (ESPN)
Game: Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders
Line Origin: BetCris @ 2:45 EST September 7
Grade / Prediction: 4* Denver Broncos -3
Analysis:
The Denver Broncos and the Oakland Raiders wrap up Week One of the NFL season. These divisional rivals square-off in California for the second game of Monday nights featured double-header.
Its common knowledge that Denver Coach Mike Shanahan takes great pride in defeating the “Silver and Black” whenever the opportunity arises. Coach Shanahan is actually 20-6 SU versus Oakland including 5-1 ATS when seeking revenge. If his Broncos are installed as a favorite in that role they are a perfect 4-0 ATS and average winning by 17 points per game.
The Broncos out-gained their opponents 5.8 yards per play to 5.5 yards per play and were plus one in turnover margin but somehow managed to be out-scored by 5.6 points per game. Quarterback Jay Cutler took advantage of his first full season as the starting quarterback, averaging 6.8 yards per pass play. We expect him to have another solid season especially when his top receiver Brandon Marshall returns from his one-game suspension.
The Broncos defense with strong safety Ferguson starting allowed 7.4 yards per pass play during the first eight games of the season. We saw a much improved Denver defense when Ferguson was replaced by Hamza Abdullah. With Abdullah in the lineup the Broncos “D” on allowed 5.5 yards per pass play the final eight games of the season. Abdullah’s presence in the lineup allowed cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Dre Bly to play more bump and run coverage rather than wasting their man-to-man skills in zone defenses.
The Raiders are coming in off a 4-12 season and didn’t take advantage of their position in the draft. They chose RB Darrin McFadden who will more than likely be a terrific running back but that is not where they needed improvement. The Raiders need help on the defensive front and also in the wide receiving department where they are awful.
Raiders WR Jevon Walker was signed to a free agent deal that was truly a waste of money especially since he has limited abilities at this time in his career. Walker averaged a meager 5.7 yards per pass play and that for a WR is horrible. Once again the Raiders owner and front office have made terrible personnel decisions.
JaMarcus Russell get’s the starting job at QB for the Raiders and from all reports he is not close to being ready for the NFL. Last season Russell only averaged 4.6 yards per pass on seventy-two pass plays and was terrible during this preseason. He had a 52% completion rate during the preseason averaging only 3.2 yards per pass play.
For Raider’s fans they certainly cannot be optimistic by the team’s performance in Game Three of the preseason when their first team got blanked 24 to 0 by Arizona. That particular game in the preseason is used to get the starters ready for Game One of the regular season and if that is any indication of what to expect this game wont be close.
The Raiders defense was not good last season allowing 5.9 yards per play. Although they should see some overall improvement as they acquired Gibril Wilson via free agency to play strong safety. Wilson was a solid rush defender for the Giants last season and will be a huge upgrade from Huff who will be moved to free safety which is his natural position. That one change helps their defense overall because Wilson can help with run defense and Huff will be able to help defend against the pass.
Even with these changes they will not be enough to offset this Broncos team that is certainly focused on improving their record from last season and getting back to the playoffs in 08. The Raiders are not coming off one or two rough seasons but five, they have a long way to go and tonight will not be the beginning of their new start.
On the technical front we see that Oakland is 0-10 ATS at home when facing a divisional opponent for the first time in the season. They average losing against the spread in these games by 11.0 points per game. The Raiders also struggle when the line is within three of pick’em going 0-4 ATS last season in this role and 3-25-1 ATS their last 29. If the game is against a divisional rival they are even worse they have posted a record of 0-9 both SU and ATS losing by an average of 13.4 points per game.
Oakland is also 24-49 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992, 7-19 ATS as a home underdog of 7 or less points, 66-91 ATS against conference opponents since 1992 and 16-30 ATS versus division opponents since 1992.
The Broncos on the other hand are a perfect 5-0 ATS since 03 on the road facing a divisional rival and the line is within three of pick, covering the spread in these contests by more than 15 points per game.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that says; In Game 1, play ON an AFC road favorite of 3 points or less with a TOTAL of 38+ points. This system is 8-0 ATS since 2001 and averages covering the spread by 8.8 points per game.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* DENVER BRONCOS -3
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5-2 NFL Thur-Sun
Time / Date: 7:00 EST / Monday September 8 (ESPN)
Game: Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 1:22 EST September 7
Grade / Prediction: 3* Minnesota Vikings +2.5
Analysis:
The Green Bay Packers begin the 2008 campaign with a new leader, QB Aaron Rodgers and he begins his era on the NFL’s second largest stage, Monday Night Football.
Rodgers and the Pack will face Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field on Monday night. This divisional series was dominated by the Packers last season as they won 34 to 20 at home. That was their first SU/ATS win in this series at Lambeau since 2000.
There is a lot of excitement in Minnesota as fans anticipate what they believe will be a Vikings team that will make a run into the playoffs. The Vikings added All-Pro DE Jared Allen to an already stout defensive line to make the Vikings defense among the best in the NFL. The Vikings have two of the league’s best defensive tackles in Pat Williams and Kevin Williams and teams have simply stopped trying to run the ball against them.
Last season the Vikings allowed just 3.2 yards per rush and opponents only tried running the ball thirty-five percent of the time, which is below the NFL average of forty-three percent.
Minnesota’s offense revolves around second year back Adrian Peterson, who averaged 5.6 yards per rush while backup Chester Taylor ran for 848 yards at 5.4 yards per carry. While we do not believe they can keep up those incredible numbers they should still average around 5 yards per carry.
Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson posted pretty decent numbers for a first time starter, averaging 6.0 yards per pass play. QB Jackson should improve in his second full season as the starter and adding WR Bernard Berrian upgrades the receiving corps. Jackson needs to cut down on his interception rate, but it’s not a huge problem since the Vikings don’t throw the ball as much as most teams.
Rodgers looked good last season when he played against the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has a solid defensive unit and Rodgers averaged 6.3 yards per play in that contest. Rodgers has also looked good in the preseason, completing 68.5% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt on just one INT on 54 pass attempts. One complaint against Rodgers is he tends to hold onto the ball too long which has allowed him to be sacked 7 times in only 61 pass plays this preseason.
Ryan Grant became the Packs full time running back in Week 4 of the season last year and he averaged 4.7 yards per rush during that time. We don’t expect him to have that kind of success versus this Vikings defensive unit which is solid against the run, they allowed a league best 73.8 yards rushing per contest last season.
With the Packers thin at defensive tackle and having to contend with Adrian Peterson could spell trouble for this Packers team on Monday night. Too many questions for the Packers overall and a Vikings team with another year under their belts with Jackson and Peterson should have the advantage here.
On the technical front we see that in this series the underdog is 23-9 ATS. While the underdog when Minnesota plays on Monday night has a record of 12-2 ATS and the Vikings are 5-1 ATS their last six season openers.
Finally we have a system that tells us to Play Against teams that outgained their opponents by 0.75 yards per play last season, the record for this system is 36-12 ATS and tells us to Play On the Minnesota Vikings.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* MINNESOTA VIKINGS +2.5
Time / Date: 10:15 EST / Monday September 8 (ESPN)
Game: Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders
Line Origin: BetCris @ 2:45 EST September 7
Grade / Prediction: 4* Denver Broncos -3
Analysis:
The Denver Broncos and the Oakland Raiders wrap up Week One of the NFL season. These divisional rivals square-off in California for the second game of Monday nights featured double-header.
Its common knowledge that Denver Coach Mike Shanahan takes great pride in defeating the “Silver and Black” whenever the opportunity arises. Coach Shanahan is actually 20-6 SU versus Oakland including 5-1 ATS when seeking revenge. If his Broncos are installed as a favorite in that role they are a perfect 4-0 ATS and average winning by 17 points per game.
The Broncos out-gained their opponents 5.8 yards per play to 5.5 yards per play and were plus one in turnover margin but somehow managed to be out-scored by 5.6 points per game. Quarterback Jay Cutler took advantage of his first full season as the starting quarterback, averaging 6.8 yards per pass play. We expect him to have another solid season especially when his top receiver Brandon Marshall returns from his one-game suspension.
The Broncos defense with strong safety Ferguson starting allowed 7.4 yards per pass play during the first eight games of the season. We saw a much improved Denver defense when Ferguson was replaced by Hamza Abdullah. With Abdullah in the lineup the Broncos “D” on allowed 5.5 yards per pass play the final eight games of the season. Abdullah’s presence in the lineup allowed cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Dre Bly to play more bump and run coverage rather than wasting their man-to-man skills in zone defenses.
The Raiders are coming in off a 4-12 season and didn’t take advantage of their position in the draft. They chose RB Darrin McFadden who will more than likely be a terrific running back but that is not where they needed improvement. The Raiders need help on the defensive front and also in the wide receiving department where they are awful.
Raiders WR Jevon Walker was signed to a free agent deal that was truly a waste of money especially since he has limited abilities at this time in his career. Walker averaged a meager 5.7 yards per pass play and that for a WR is horrible. Once again the Raiders owner and front office have made terrible personnel decisions.
JaMarcus Russell get’s the starting job at QB for the Raiders and from all reports he is not close to being ready for the NFL. Last season Russell only averaged 4.6 yards per pass on seventy-two pass plays and was terrible during this preseason. He had a 52% completion rate during the preseason averaging only 3.2 yards per pass play.
For Raider’s fans they certainly cannot be optimistic by the team’s performance in Game Three of the preseason when their first team got blanked 24 to 0 by Arizona. That particular game in the preseason is used to get the starters ready for Game One of the regular season and if that is any indication of what to expect this game wont be close.
The Raiders defense was not good last season allowing 5.9 yards per play. Although they should see some overall improvement as they acquired Gibril Wilson via free agency to play strong safety. Wilson was a solid rush defender for the Giants last season and will be a huge upgrade from Huff who will be moved to free safety which is his natural position. That one change helps their defense overall because Wilson can help with run defense and Huff will be able to help defend against the pass.
Even with these changes they will not be enough to offset this Broncos team that is certainly focused on improving their record from last season and getting back to the playoffs in 08. The Raiders are not coming off one or two rough seasons but five, they have a long way to go and tonight will not be the beginning of their new start.
On the technical front we see that Oakland is 0-10 ATS at home when facing a divisional opponent for the first time in the season. They average losing against the spread in these games by 11.0 points per game. The Raiders also struggle when the line is within three of pick’em going 0-4 ATS last season in this role and 3-25-1 ATS their last 29. If the game is against a divisional rival they are even worse they have posted a record of 0-9 both SU and ATS losing by an average of 13.4 points per game.
Oakland is also 24-49 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992, 7-19 ATS as a home underdog of 7 or less points, 66-91 ATS against conference opponents since 1992 and 16-30 ATS versus division opponents since 1992.
The Broncos on the other hand are a perfect 5-0 ATS since 03 on the road facing a divisional rival and the line is within three of pick, covering the spread in these contests by more than 15 points per game.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that says; In Game 1, play ON an AFC road favorite of 3 points or less with a TOTAL of 38+ points. This system is 8-0 ATS since 2001 and averages covering the spread by 8.8 points per game.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* DENVER BRONCOS -3
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Gina
Monday, September 8, 7:00 p.m. est.
Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-0)
The Packers went 7-1 straight-up and 6-1 against the spread at home last season. They have beaten the Vikings in the last four meetings, 3-1 ATS, but went just 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games versus the Vikings at Lambeau Field.
Go with the Packers at home. Green Bay's quarterback Aaron Rodgers has a capable crew to take their fifth straight victory over the Vikings.
Green Bay Packers - 2½
MLB
Monday, September 8, 2008 7:05 p.m. est.
Tampa Bay Rays (85-56) at Boston Red Sox (84-58)
(R) Edwin Jackson (11-9, 4.07 ERA) vs. (L) Jon Lester (13-5, 3.37)
Boston has won 14 of their last 18 games overall and the last eight against Tampa Bay at Fenway Park. The Rays have lost five of their last six games.
Go with the Red Sox to continue their authority at home over the Rays. Boston has won Jon Lester last 6 starts versus the Rays, 4-0 in the southpaw’s last four against them at home. The Rays counter with Edwin Jackson. The right-hander is 2-3 with a 5.70 ERA in 10 career outings, including 7 starts against the Red Sox.
Boston Red Sox -200
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Monday, September 8, 7:00 p.m. est.
Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-0)
The Packers went 7-1 straight-up and 6-1 against the spread at home last season. They have beaten the Vikings in the last four meetings, 3-1 ATS, but went just 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games versus the Vikings at Lambeau Field.
Go with the Packers at home. Green Bay's quarterback Aaron Rodgers has a capable crew to take their fifth straight victory over the Vikings.
Green Bay Packers - 2½
MLB
Monday, September 8, 2008 7:05 p.m. est.
Tampa Bay Rays (85-56) at Boston Red Sox (84-58)
(R) Edwin Jackson (11-9, 4.07 ERA) vs. (L) Jon Lester (13-5, 3.37)
Boston has won 14 of their last 18 games overall and the last eight against Tampa Bay at Fenway Park. The Rays have lost five of their last six games.
Go with the Red Sox to continue their authority at home over the Rays. Boston has won Jon Lester last 6 starts versus the Rays, 4-0 in the southpaw’s last four against them at home. The Rays counter with Edwin Jackson. The right-hander is 2-3 with a 5.70 ERA in 10 career outings, including 7 starts against the Red Sox.
Boston Red Sox -200
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JB's Computer Plays
Monday, September 8, 2008
Time Game Selections
7:05 p.m. Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
(R) Edwin Jackson (11-9) vs. (L) Jon Lester (13-5) Boston Red Sox -210
8:05 p.m. Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
(R) Edinson Volquez (16-5) vs. (R) Dave Bush (9-10) Cincinnati Reds +120
10:15 p.m. Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
(R) Yusmeiro Petit (3-4) vs. (R) Tim Lincecum (15-3) San Francisco Giants -175
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Monday, September 8, 2008
Time Game Selections
7:05 p.m. Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
(R) Edwin Jackson (11-9) vs. (L) Jon Lester (13-5) Boston Red Sox -210
8:05 p.m. Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
(R) Edinson Volquez (16-5) vs. (R) Dave Bush (9-10) Cincinnati Reds +120
10:15 p.m. Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
(R) Yusmeiro Petit (3-4) vs. (R) Tim Lincecum (15-3) San Francisco Giants -175
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Mr A's
Monday, September 8th, 2008 8:05 PM EST.
Pittsburgh Pirates (60-82) at Houston Astros (76-67)
(R) Ian Snell (6-10) vs. (R) Alberto Arias (0-0)
Houston Astros have lost seven of the last nine meetings versus the Astros. However, Houston is on a roll. They have won ten of their last 11 games and the last five at home. Meanwhile, the Pirates have cave in, dropping 13 of their last 16 games.
Pittsburgh's Ian Snell (6-10, 5.59) is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 0-0 with an 8.10 ERA in two starts against the Astros this season.
Houston's Alberto Arias (0-0, 2.63 ERA) makes his first major league start. The right-hander allowed four runs and 12 hits over 13 2/3 innings in 12 relief appearances this season.
Ride the hot Astros. Houston continues to win and Pittsburgh keeps losing. The Pirates have won Snell's last 5 starts versus the Astros, but have lost 9 of his last 13 on the road.
Houston Astros -120
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Monday, September 8th, 2008 8:05 PM EST.
Pittsburgh Pirates (60-82) at Houston Astros (76-67)
(R) Ian Snell (6-10) vs. (R) Alberto Arias (0-0)
Houston Astros have lost seven of the last nine meetings versus the Astros. However, Houston is on a roll. They have won ten of their last 11 games and the last five at home. Meanwhile, the Pirates have cave in, dropping 13 of their last 16 games.
Pittsburgh's Ian Snell (6-10, 5.59) is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 0-0 with an 8.10 ERA in two starts against the Astros this season.
Houston's Alberto Arias (0-0, 2.63 ERA) makes his first major league start. The right-hander allowed four runs and 12 hits over 13 2/3 innings in 12 relief appearances this season.
Ride the hot Astros. Houston continues to win and Pittsburgh keeps losing. The Pirates have won Snell's last 5 starts versus the Astros, but have lost 9 of his last 13 on the road.
Houston Astros -120
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John Ryan
Cleveland Indians vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on the Baltimore Orioles – The only way I have found to make consistent returns in the money line sports of the NHL and MLB is identify DOGS that win. AiS does that and also assesses that the risk/reward profile is acceptable. Let’s take a look at the technical side where systems and angles reinforce the AiS graded play. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 112-82 making 70.3 units for 58% since 1997. Play on home dogs with a money line of +100 or higher with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game and with a cold starting pitcher sporting an ERA >= 6.50 over his last 10 starts. Baltimore starter Garett Olsen has been struggling, but Cleveland has not consistently taken advantage of these situations in past seasons. Note that Cleveland is 68-65 (-35.1 Units) against the money line versus an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse since 1997. Baltimore has lost 8 straight and has essentially packed in the season, but you have to always remember that nearly all of these players on this roster are still trying to perform at a high level to ensure a spot on next year’s roster. Plus, with the losing ways the public jumps on board and almost assumes these losing ways will continue indefinitely.
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Cleveland Indians vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on the Baltimore Orioles – The only way I have found to make consistent returns in the money line sports of the NHL and MLB is identify DOGS that win. AiS does that and also assesses that the risk/reward profile is acceptable. Let’s take a look at the technical side where systems and angles reinforce the AiS graded play. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 112-82 making 70.3 units for 58% since 1997. Play on home dogs with a money line of +100 or higher with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game and with a cold starting pitcher sporting an ERA >= 6.50 over his last 10 starts. Baltimore starter Garett Olsen has been struggling, but Cleveland has not consistently taken advantage of these situations in past seasons. Note that Cleveland is 68-65 (-35.1 Units) against the money line versus an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse since 1997. Baltimore has lost 8 straight and has essentially packed in the season, but you have to always remember that nearly all of these players on this roster are still trying to perform at a high level to ensure a spot on next year’s roster. Plus, with the losing ways the public jumps on board and almost assumes these losing ways will continue indefinitely.
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SPORTS ADVISORS
Minnesota at Green Bay
The post-Brett Favre era begins at Lambeau Field in Green Bay when the Packers host the rival Vikings in a season-opening battle between teams thinking they have a chance at the NFC North title.
Green Bay (13-3, 12-3-1 ATS in 2007) made it all the way to the NFC Championship Game last year, losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants 23-20 in overtime as a nine-point favorite. Favre retired two months after the defeat before un-retiring in July and being traded to the Jets. That leaves the offense in the hands of Aaron Rodgers, the first quarterback since 1992 to start a game for the Packers other than Favre.
Rodgers has attempted just 59 passes in his career and has just one TD pass, but he’s got some weapons at WR in Donald Driver and Greg Jennings who both had more than 900 yards receiving a year ago with Jennings catching 12 TD passes. However, it’s the defense that could carry Mike McCarthy’s squad, led by defensive-line anchor Aaron Kampman whose 27½ sacks is the most of the NFC in the last two seasons. Overall, the Packers’ defense ranked second in the NFL last year, giving up 18.2 points a game.
The Vikings (8-8 SU, 7-7-2 ATS) struggled down the stretch last season, losing their final two games to the Redskins (32-21 as six-point favorites) and at Denver (22-19 in overtime as three-point favorites) to cost themselves a playoff spot. Those two losses followed a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS).
Minnesota certainly relies heavily on its defense and has added pro-bowler Jared Allen and his 15½ sacks to the defensive line to go along with Kevin Williams and Pat Williams. Brad Childress’ offense is led by third-year QB Tarvaris Jackson, who has thrown more INTs (16) than TDs (11) in his 14 career starts, and RB Adrian Peterson, who ran for 1,341 yards and 13 TDs in his rookie campaign last year.
Minnesota is on ATS runs of 11-5-1 against the NFC North rivals, 5-1 in season openers and 5-1-2 in September contests. Meanwhile, Green Bay is on ATS streaks of 16-5-1 overall, 13-6-1 on Mondays, 8-3 against division foes, 5-1 at home and 5-0 in September kickoffs.
Green Bay has won four straight over the Vikings (3-1 ATS) and seven of the last 10 series clashes (5-5 ATS). The underdog owns a 16-5 ATS advantage in this rivalry over the past decade and the road team has gone 10-2 ATS in the last 12. Last season at Lambeau, the Packers scored a 34-0 blowout victory as a 5½-point chalk. Finally, the straight-up winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 in this rivalry.
The under is 6-2-1 in Minnesota’s last nine on the road and 15-6-1 in its last 22 on grass. Meanwhile the over is 8-0 in the Packers’ last eight against NFC competition and 14-3 in their last 17 overall. Lastly, the under is 5-1-1 in this rivalry the last three-plus seasons.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
Denver at Oakland
A classic AFC West rivalry is renewed on the opening Monday night when the Broncos pay a visit to McAfee Coliseum to take on the Raiders.
Denver (7-9, 5-11 ATS) started strong with consecutive victories last year, but then went on a five-game losing skid and failed to make the playoffs for the second straight season. Broncos’ QB Jay Cutler completed 63.6 percent of his throws in his first full season running the offense and threw for 3,497 yards, 20 TDs and 14 INTs. The biggest change for Mike Shanahan’s squad is the on offensive line, as no starter from a season ago is back to block for RBs Selvin Young and Andre Hall.
Oakland (4-12, 6-10 ATS) endured its fifth consecutive losing campaign in 2007 and now has lost 61 games during this stretch that dates to their appearance in the 2002 Super Bowl. The Raiders will try to turn things around behind QB JaMarcus Russell, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft who takes over a sluggish offense. In his only start last season, Russell went 23-for-31 for 224 yards and a TD in the season finale against San Diego. In the backfield, coach Lane Kiffin has the choice of Justin Fargas (1,009 yards rushing last season) or dynamic rookie Darren McFadden.
The Broncos are on ATS slides of 7-19 overall, 2-10 against AFC West rivals, 0-4 on the highway and 0-4 in September games. Oakland also has been a betting disaster the last five years, sporting ATS skids of 26-54-1 overall, 19-40-1 against the AFC, 8-22 at home, 0-6 on Mondays and 5-11 in September.
These teams split their two matchups a season ago with the home team winning each. Oakland scored a 34-20 win over the Broncos as a 3½-point home ‘dog in December. In fact, the Raiders are 4-0 ATS over the last two seasons against Denver, but they are just 2-8 SU (5-5 ATS) in the last 10, with the straight-up winner going 7-3 ATS in those 10 contests.
For Denver, the over is on runs of 19-7-1 overall, 9-2 against the AFC, 6-1 against the AFC West and 5-2 on the road. For Oakland, the over streaks include 6-1 overall, 4-1 against the AFC and 4-0 in September, but the under is 13-5 in the Raiders’ last 18 against AFC West rivals. Also, the under is 6-1 in the Raiders’ last seven Monday Night appearances, 5-1 in Denver’s last six on Mondays and 9-4 in the past 13 meetings between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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Minnesota at Green Bay
The post-Brett Favre era begins at Lambeau Field in Green Bay when the Packers host the rival Vikings in a season-opening battle between teams thinking they have a chance at the NFC North title.
Green Bay (13-3, 12-3-1 ATS in 2007) made it all the way to the NFC Championship Game last year, losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants 23-20 in overtime as a nine-point favorite. Favre retired two months after the defeat before un-retiring in July and being traded to the Jets. That leaves the offense in the hands of Aaron Rodgers, the first quarterback since 1992 to start a game for the Packers other than Favre.
Rodgers has attempted just 59 passes in his career and has just one TD pass, but he’s got some weapons at WR in Donald Driver and Greg Jennings who both had more than 900 yards receiving a year ago with Jennings catching 12 TD passes. However, it’s the defense that could carry Mike McCarthy’s squad, led by defensive-line anchor Aaron Kampman whose 27½ sacks is the most of the NFC in the last two seasons. Overall, the Packers’ defense ranked second in the NFL last year, giving up 18.2 points a game.
The Vikings (8-8 SU, 7-7-2 ATS) struggled down the stretch last season, losing their final two games to the Redskins (32-21 as six-point favorites) and at Denver (22-19 in overtime as three-point favorites) to cost themselves a playoff spot. Those two losses followed a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS).
Minnesota certainly relies heavily on its defense and has added pro-bowler Jared Allen and his 15½ sacks to the defensive line to go along with Kevin Williams and Pat Williams. Brad Childress’ offense is led by third-year QB Tarvaris Jackson, who has thrown more INTs (16) than TDs (11) in his 14 career starts, and RB Adrian Peterson, who ran for 1,341 yards and 13 TDs in his rookie campaign last year.
Minnesota is on ATS runs of 11-5-1 against the NFC North rivals, 5-1 in season openers and 5-1-2 in September contests. Meanwhile, Green Bay is on ATS streaks of 16-5-1 overall, 13-6-1 on Mondays, 8-3 against division foes, 5-1 at home and 5-0 in September kickoffs.
Green Bay has won four straight over the Vikings (3-1 ATS) and seven of the last 10 series clashes (5-5 ATS). The underdog owns a 16-5 ATS advantage in this rivalry over the past decade and the road team has gone 10-2 ATS in the last 12. Last season at Lambeau, the Packers scored a 34-0 blowout victory as a 5½-point chalk. Finally, the straight-up winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 in this rivalry.
The under is 6-2-1 in Minnesota’s last nine on the road and 15-6-1 in its last 22 on grass. Meanwhile the over is 8-0 in the Packers’ last eight against NFC competition and 14-3 in their last 17 overall. Lastly, the under is 5-1-1 in this rivalry the last three-plus seasons.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
Denver at Oakland
A classic AFC West rivalry is renewed on the opening Monday night when the Broncos pay a visit to McAfee Coliseum to take on the Raiders.
Denver (7-9, 5-11 ATS) started strong with consecutive victories last year, but then went on a five-game losing skid and failed to make the playoffs for the second straight season. Broncos’ QB Jay Cutler completed 63.6 percent of his throws in his first full season running the offense and threw for 3,497 yards, 20 TDs and 14 INTs. The biggest change for Mike Shanahan’s squad is the on offensive line, as no starter from a season ago is back to block for RBs Selvin Young and Andre Hall.
Oakland (4-12, 6-10 ATS) endured its fifth consecutive losing campaign in 2007 and now has lost 61 games during this stretch that dates to their appearance in the 2002 Super Bowl. The Raiders will try to turn things around behind QB JaMarcus Russell, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft who takes over a sluggish offense. In his only start last season, Russell went 23-for-31 for 224 yards and a TD in the season finale against San Diego. In the backfield, coach Lane Kiffin has the choice of Justin Fargas (1,009 yards rushing last season) or dynamic rookie Darren McFadden.
The Broncos are on ATS slides of 7-19 overall, 2-10 against AFC West rivals, 0-4 on the highway and 0-4 in September games. Oakland also has been a betting disaster the last five years, sporting ATS skids of 26-54-1 overall, 19-40-1 against the AFC, 8-22 at home, 0-6 on Mondays and 5-11 in September.
These teams split their two matchups a season ago with the home team winning each. Oakland scored a 34-20 win over the Broncos as a 3½-point home ‘dog in December. In fact, the Raiders are 4-0 ATS over the last two seasons against Denver, but they are just 2-8 SU (5-5 ATS) in the last 10, with the straight-up winner going 7-3 ATS in those 10 contests.
For Denver, the over is on runs of 19-7-1 overall, 9-2 against the AFC, 6-1 against the AFC West and 5-2 on the road. For Oakland, the over streaks include 6-1 overall, 4-1 against the AFC and 4-0 in September, but the under is 13-5 in the Raiders’ last 18 against AFC West rivals. Also, the under is 6-1 in the Raiders’ last seven Monday Night appearances, 5-1 in Denver’s last six on Mondays and 9-4 in the past 13 meetings between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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