SPORTS ADVISORS
Baltimore (2-0 SU and ATS) at Pittsburgh (2-1, 1-2 ATS)
The surprising Ravens try to make it three in a row to open the season as they travel to Heinz Field to take on the Steelers in an AFC North showdown.
Baltimore has opened with home wins over Cincinnati in Week 1 (17-10 as one-point ‘dogs) and Cleveland in Week 3 (28-10 as one-point favorites), while a Week 2 game at the Texans postponed because of Hurricane Ike. As usual, it’s the defense doing the damage for the Ravens, who lead the NFL in total defense at 161.5 yards per game allowed. Pittsburgh has the second stingiest defense, giving up 234 ypg.
The Steelers got knocked around at Philadelphia last week, losing 15-6 as 3½-point ‘dogs. QB Ben Roethlisberger was sacked eight times and left with a hand injury in the fourth quarter but is scheduled to be in the lineup tonight. However, RB Willie Parker, who sprained his knee against the Eagles, will not play, leaving the ball-carrying duties in the hands of rookie Rashard Mendenhall.
Baltimore has won four of the last five SU and ATS against the Steelers and six of the last nine SU and ATS dating back to 2003. However, the home team is 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) in the last 10 series clashes, with the host winning and cashing in both battles last year. That includes the Steelers’ 38-7 rout at home as a 9½-point favorite in 2007.
The Ravens are just 1-5 (3-3 ATS) on the road in Monday Night Football, while Pittsburgh is an astounding 22-5 (19-8 ATS) in the Steel City on Mondays and 35-22 (34-22-1 ATS) overall in this showcase contest. However, the Steelers have failed to cash in four of their last five on Monday.
Baltimore is 9-3 ATS in Week 4 the last 12 seasons, but otherwise the Ravens are on pointspread slides of 5-14 overall, 6-21 on the road, 4-11 against the AFC and 2-5 in September. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is only 3-7 ATS in its last 10 against the AFC, but the Steelers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 at Heinz Field and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a non-cover.
The under is 9-4-3 in the Ravens’ last 16 September games, but otherwise the over is on runs for Baltimore of 7-2 overall, 7-2-1 against AFC North foes, 7-1 on Mondays and 5-1 against teams with a winning record. For Pittsburgh, the over is on runs of 41-15-2 at home, 5-2 overall, 4-1 against the AFC and 13-3-1 at home against teams with a winning road record.
Finally, the over is 10-4 in the last 14 series clashes between these rivals, including 6-1 in Pittsburgh. So far this season, the over is 4-0 in the Monday night spotlight.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER