jeff benton monday. 1-1 yesterday MINUS 40 dimes MINUS $450.....
Jeff Benton Monday's Action
20 DIME selection on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS plus the points over the Chargers in Monday Night Football action. The Chiefs are a healthy home underdog, with the consensus number at 4½, though some locales have Kansas City as a 5- and even 5½-point pup. So make sure you’ve got wageering options that allow you to get the best of the number.
10 DIME selection on the BALTIMORE RAVENS plus the points over the Jets in Monday Night Football action. Baltimore is catching two points in the majority of shops, but look around and see if you can get 2½. If you do, I encourage you to buy the half point so you get the full +3 with Baltimore.
CHIEFS
You know I’m big on exposing fishy pointspreads early in the NFL season, and this Chargers-Chiefs number doesn’t smell right at all.
Think about it: Kansas City has won exactly 10 games against 38 losses over the past three full seasons, including five straight losses to San Diego (three at home). The Chargers, meanwhile, have won four consacutive AFC West titles, and prior to a stunning 17-14 home loss to the Jets in the playoffs, they ended the 2009 regular season on an 11-game winning streak.
Furthermore, every preseason publication and NFL pundit has the Chargers cruising to their fifth consecutive division title, while most have Kansas City pegged for another sub-.500 season.
Given all these facts, why is San Diego such a short favorite tonight? Hell, the Chargers have been the chalk in each of the last eight series meetings, but never have they been favored by this small of a number. Doesn’t that seem strange to you? Sure does to me. And I think I’ve got the answers as to why.
First off, the Chargers enter the season without two of their three most important offensive players. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson (a Pro Bowler and one of the best deep-threat wideouts in the game) and left tackle Marcus McNeill (also a Pro Bowler charged with protecting Philip Rivers’ blindside) are embroiled in a contract standoff with manaegement. Neither will be on the field tonight (or in uniform anytime soon).
Rivers and his teammates have said all the right things about the holdouts the entire offseason, insisting that the absence of Jackson and McNeill doesn’t change their goals and won’t impact the offense. I beg to differ. You don’t lose two Pro Bowl players and not have some residual effects. More specifically, you also don’t go on the road into one of the NFL’s most hostile environments with a new left tackle (who is second-year undrafted free agent) and without your most pivotal receiver.
Secondly, as I’m sure you know, the Chargers haven’t exactly been quick to get out of the gate the last few years. Since Norv Turner became the coach in 2007, San Diego has had a losing record through the first five weeks of each of season (cashing in just five of 15 early-season games). Two years ago, the Bolts lost 26-24 to Carolina as a 9½-point home favorite to start the season (losing on the final play of the game), then last year San Diego barely got out of Oakland with a 24-20 win, needing a late fourth-quarter rally and once again falling way short as a 9 ½-point chalk.
As for the Chiefs, there’s no question they’ve been a disaster the last three years. But they’ve stockpiled a lot of talent through the draft and free agency the last two years and that talent is on the verge of producing for second-year coach Todd Haley (who wisely hired former Patriots assistants Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel in the offseason to be his offensive and defensive coordinators, respectively).
Finally, although the Chargers have won three straight times in Kansas City, the Chiefs have covered in eight of the last 11 clashes at Arrowhead Stadium. Also, two of San Diego’s last four wins against Kansas City have been one-point nail-biters. With the Chargers missing McNeill and Jackson, with San Diego being a notoriously slow-starter and with the Chiefs possessing a big home-field advantage with a prime-time game at newly remodeled Arrowhead, we’re looking at another Chargers-Chiefs clash going down to the wire.
Take the value with the underdog, as this one will be decided by a field goal. And if the Chiefs end up with the outright victory I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked.
RAVENS
I’ve got one word for you regarding the 2010 New York Jets: FRAUD! And tonight, that fraud begins to get exposed, as the Ravens are simply a much better all-around football team. I know what you’re probably thinking: “But wait, didn’t the Jets go to the AFC Championship Game last year, making it a round further than Baltimore? And doesn’t it figure that with Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez are in their second year on the job and a ton of offseason acqursitions that New York will be even better this year?”
The answer to the first question (obviously) is yes, the Jets did go further than the Ravens last year. The answer to the second question is no, they’re not going to be better this year. Because the fact is they weren’t very good last year. Remember, New York stood at 7-7 heading into the next-to-last week of the 2009 season, then caught the biggest scheduling break I’ve ever seen. First, the Colts (with nothing to play for) pulled their starters in a Week 16 game in Indianapolis, allowing New York to steal a win. Then the following week at the Meadowlands, the Bengals (with nothing to play for) sat all their starters and the Jets cruised to a win at home.
Those two victories allowed the Jets to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed. Then the breaks fell their way again, as they matched up against Cincinnati for the second straight week in the wild-card round (and the Bengals shot themselves in the foot constantly in that game), then went to San Diego and shocked the Chargers (who also killed themselves with mistakes and played ridiculously tight in the fourth quarter).
Give the Jets credit for getting as far as they did last year, but they weren’t nearly as good as they were lucky. And the main reason is Sanchez played like a rookie for most of the season. Just look at the numbers: 53.8 percent completion rate, 12 TDs vs. 20 INTs and a 63 passer rating. And after watching his awful play in the preseason, I think Sanchez will actually be WORSE in his sophomore season, especially with defenses stuffing the box with eight and nine defenders to stop the run and force Sanchez to beat them (which he can’t).
On the other side of the field, the Ravens are much further along with their quarterback. After a pretty solid rookie campaign, Joe Flacco avoided the sophomore slump by passing for 3,613 yards, 21 TDs and just 12 INTs (his 88.9 QB rating was 25 points better than Sanchez’s!). And now Flacco has weapons on the outside, as the Ravens upgraded their receiving corps with additions like Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Donte Sallworth. And don’t forget Baltimore has one of the league’s most electrifying RBs in Ray Rice (who’s a weapon both on the ground and in the passing game).
Bottom line: The Jets have done a lot of talking this offseason, and most of the media and public have been eating it up. But now they have to back up their talk with action, and they’re not going to be able to do it – not tonight against the Ravens (who, unlike the Jets, are a legit Super Bowl contender) and not against any of the other upper-echelon NFL teams.
Take the points, but look for an outright upset!
Jeff Benton Monday's Action
20 DIME selection on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS plus the points over the Chargers in Monday Night Football action. The Chiefs are a healthy home underdog, with the consensus number at 4½, though some locales have Kansas City as a 5- and even 5½-point pup. So make sure you’ve got wageering options that allow you to get the best of the number.
10 DIME selection on the BALTIMORE RAVENS plus the points over the Jets in Monday Night Football action. Baltimore is catching two points in the majority of shops, but look around and see if you can get 2½. If you do, I encourage you to buy the half point so you get the full +3 with Baltimore.
CHIEFS
You know I’m big on exposing fishy pointspreads early in the NFL season, and this Chargers-Chiefs number doesn’t smell right at all.
Think about it: Kansas City has won exactly 10 games against 38 losses over the past three full seasons, including five straight losses to San Diego (three at home). The Chargers, meanwhile, have won four consacutive AFC West titles, and prior to a stunning 17-14 home loss to the Jets in the playoffs, they ended the 2009 regular season on an 11-game winning streak.
Furthermore, every preseason publication and NFL pundit has the Chargers cruising to their fifth consecutive division title, while most have Kansas City pegged for another sub-.500 season.
Given all these facts, why is San Diego such a short favorite tonight? Hell, the Chargers have been the chalk in each of the last eight series meetings, but never have they been favored by this small of a number. Doesn’t that seem strange to you? Sure does to me. And I think I’ve got the answers as to why.
First off, the Chargers enter the season without two of their three most important offensive players. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson (a Pro Bowler and one of the best deep-threat wideouts in the game) and left tackle Marcus McNeill (also a Pro Bowler charged with protecting Philip Rivers’ blindside) are embroiled in a contract standoff with manaegement. Neither will be on the field tonight (or in uniform anytime soon).
Rivers and his teammates have said all the right things about the holdouts the entire offseason, insisting that the absence of Jackson and McNeill doesn’t change their goals and won’t impact the offense. I beg to differ. You don’t lose two Pro Bowl players and not have some residual effects. More specifically, you also don’t go on the road into one of the NFL’s most hostile environments with a new left tackle (who is second-year undrafted free agent) and without your most pivotal receiver.
Secondly, as I’m sure you know, the Chargers haven’t exactly been quick to get out of the gate the last few years. Since Norv Turner became the coach in 2007, San Diego has had a losing record through the first five weeks of each of season (cashing in just five of 15 early-season games). Two years ago, the Bolts lost 26-24 to Carolina as a 9½-point home favorite to start the season (losing on the final play of the game), then last year San Diego barely got out of Oakland with a 24-20 win, needing a late fourth-quarter rally and once again falling way short as a 9 ½-point chalk.
As for the Chiefs, there’s no question they’ve been a disaster the last three years. But they’ve stockpiled a lot of talent through the draft and free agency the last two years and that talent is on the verge of producing for second-year coach Todd Haley (who wisely hired former Patriots assistants Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel in the offseason to be his offensive and defensive coordinators, respectively).
Finally, although the Chargers have won three straight times in Kansas City, the Chiefs have covered in eight of the last 11 clashes at Arrowhead Stadium. Also, two of San Diego’s last four wins against Kansas City have been one-point nail-biters. With the Chargers missing McNeill and Jackson, with San Diego being a notoriously slow-starter and with the Chiefs possessing a big home-field advantage with a prime-time game at newly remodeled Arrowhead, we’re looking at another Chargers-Chiefs clash going down to the wire.
Take the value with the underdog, as this one will be decided by a field goal. And if the Chiefs end up with the outright victory I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked.
RAVENS
I’ve got one word for you regarding the 2010 New York Jets: FRAUD! And tonight, that fraud begins to get exposed, as the Ravens are simply a much better all-around football team. I know what you’re probably thinking: “But wait, didn’t the Jets go to the AFC Championship Game last year, making it a round further than Baltimore? And doesn’t it figure that with Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez are in their second year on the job and a ton of offseason acqursitions that New York will be even better this year?”
The answer to the first question (obviously) is yes, the Jets did go further than the Ravens last year. The answer to the second question is no, they’re not going to be better this year. Because the fact is they weren’t very good last year. Remember, New York stood at 7-7 heading into the next-to-last week of the 2009 season, then caught the biggest scheduling break I’ve ever seen. First, the Colts (with nothing to play for) pulled their starters in a Week 16 game in Indianapolis, allowing New York to steal a win. Then the following week at the Meadowlands, the Bengals (with nothing to play for) sat all their starters and the Jets cruised to a win at home.
Those two victories allowed the Jets to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed. Then the breaks fell their way again, as they matched up against Cincinnati for the second straight week in the wild-card round (and the Bengals shot themselves in the foot constantly in that game), then went to San Diego and shocked the Chargers (who also killed themselves with mistakes and played ridiculously tight in the fourth quarter).
Give the Jets credit for getting as far as they did last year, but they weren’t nearly as good as they were lucky. And the main reason is Sanchez played like a rookie for most of the season. Just look at the numbers: 53.8 percent completion rate, 12 TDs vs. 20 INTs and a 63 passer rating. And after watching his awful play in the preseason, I think Sanchez will actually be WORSE in his sophomore season, especially with defenses stuffing the box with eight and nine defenders to stop the run and force Sanchez to beat them (which he can’t).
On the other side of the field, the Ravens are much further along with their quarterback. After a pretty solid rookie campaign, Joe Flacco avoided the sophomore slump by passing for 3,613 yards, 21 TDs and just 12 INTs (his 88.9 QB rating was 25 points better than Sanchez’s!). And now Flacco has weapons on the outside, as the Ravens upgraded their receiving corps with additions like Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Donte Sallworth. And don’t forget Baltimore has one of the league’s most electrifying RBs in Ray Rice (who’s a weapon both on the ground and in the passing game).
Bottom line: The Jets have done a lot of talking this offseason, and most of the media and public have been eating it up. But now they have to back up their talk with action, and they’re not going to be able to do it – not tonight against the Ravens (who, unlike the Jets, are a legit Super Bowl contender) and not against any of the other upper-echelon NFL teams.
Take the points, but look for an outright upset!
