VegasButcher
Tigers +103
David Price is coming off the WORST outing of his life, though it could be classified as the WORST inning of his life. Through two innings, Price allowed 0 ER’s and had 3 K’s. Then things went sour in the 3rd: single, double, single, double, single, single, single, single, single. After 9 straight hits and 6 runs (2 more ER’s after that) Prices was pulled. But it’s not like his velocity was down or he was making a ton of bad pitches. His FIP was 1.6 for the game with a 3.6 SIERA. Of course the 0.857 BABIP and the 43% LD-rate didn’t help (he averaged a 16% LD-rate in the previous 4 starts (league average is about 19%)). Clearly it was a just a bad start and I don’t think there’s anything to worry about here. The good thing to come out of it is that Price threw only 68 pitches and should be much fresher for tonight’s bounce-back. By comparison, Corey Kluber is coming off another phenomenal start where he allowed 3 ER’s but had 8K’s through 6.1 innings. He’s now registered 86K in his last 75.1 innings of work. That’s absolutely phenomenal, but it also has come at the price of a high pitch counts. In those starts he’s averaged over 108 pitches thrown, and is coming off an outing where he threw 118, the most he’s thrown all season. Normally that’s not a big concern for a power-pitcher, but Cleveland’s bullpen isn’t in the best of shape today. Their closer Cody Allen pitched 2 straight days and 3 of the last 4, Shaw pitched yesterday and appeared in 4 of the last 6, and the rest of the bullpen had a day off yesterday bthough most key guys pitched 2+ days prior to Sunday. There’s a lot of pressure on Kluber today not just to pitch well, but to pitch well deep into the game. And he’ll have to do it against Tigers’ 5th ranked offense against righties (wRC+ of 105, 8th in ISO). By comparison, Indians’ offense ranks 27th against lefties (wRC+ of 87, 28th in ISO). That’s a +18% wRC+ variance in Detroit’s favor today. As far as Detroit’s BP, their key relieves are all well rested. Bottom line is that the Tigers could have an advantage with their starter in today’s matchup, as Kluber (he’s at 192 innings this year by the way, after throwing for 160 last year) could potentially be in a fatigue spot. He’ll also be facing the Tigers for the 4th time this year, while Price hasn’t seen Cleveland since 2013. Even if Kluber is ON his game, the starting pitching is equal here and Detroit’s advantages in the BP and offensively should be the differenc. I think the Tigers have a lot of different ways to win this one while the Indians must rely on a dominant outing by their starter. Price is 5-1 when facing Cleveland in his career, while Kluber is only 2-4 against the Tigers.
Tigers +103
David Price is coming off the WORST outing of his life, though it could be classified as the WORST inning of his life. Through two innings, Price allowed 0 ER’s and had 3 K’s. Then things went sour in the 3rd: single, double, single, double, single, single, single, single, single. After 9 straight hits and 6 runs (2 more ER’s after that) Prices was pulled. But it’s not like his velocity was down or he was making a ton of bad pitches. His FIP was 1.6 for the game with a 3.6 SIERA. Of course the 0.857 BABIP and the 43% LD-rate didn’t help (he averaged a 16% LD-rate in the previous 4 starts (league average is about 19%)). Clearly it was a just a bad start and I don’t think there’s anything to worry about here. The good thing to come out of it is that Price threw only 68 pitches and should be much fresher for tonight’s bounce-back. By comparison, Corey Kluber is coming off another phenomenal start where he allowed 3 ER’s but had 8K’s through 6.1 innings. He’s now registered 86K in his last 75.1 innings of work. That’s absolutely phenomenal, but it also has come at the price of a high pitch counts. In those starts he’s averaged over 108 pitches thrown, and is coming off an outing where he threw 118, the most he’s thrown all season. Normally that’s not a big concern for a power-pitcher, but Cleveland’s bullpen isn’t in the best of shape today. Their closer Cody Allen pitched 2 straight days and 3 of the last 4, Shaw pitched yesterday and appeared in 4 of the last 6, and the rest of the bullpen had a day off yesterday bthough most key guys pitched 2+ days prior to Sunday. There’s a lot of pressure on Kluber today not just to pitch well, but to pitch well deep into the game. And he’ll have to do it against Tigers’ 5th ranked offense against righties (wRC+ of 105, 8th in ISO). By comparison, Indians’ offense ranks 27th against lefties (wRC+ of 87, 28th in ISO). That’s a +18% wRC+ variance in Detroit’s favor today. As far as Detroit’s BP, their key relieves are all well rested. Bottom line is that the Tigers could have an advantage with their starter in today’s matchup, as Kluber (he’s at 192 innings this year by the way, after throwing for 160 last year) could potentially be in a fatigue spot. He’ll also be facing the Tigers for the 4th time this year, while Price hasn’t seen Cleveland since 2013. Even if Kluber is ON his game, the starting pitching is equal here and Detroit’s advantages in the BP and offensively should be the differenc. I think the Tigers have a lot of different ways to win this one while the Indians must rely on a dominant outing by their starter. Price is 5-1 when facing Cleveland in his career, while Kluber is only 2-4 against the Tigers.
