THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL Preseason
Cincinnati at Green Bay
With the Brett Favre soap opera finally behind them, the Packers and new No. 1 quarterback Aaron Rodgers take the field at Lambeau Field tonight for a preseason contest against the Bengals.
Rodgers, who served as Favre?s backup each of the last three years, is expected to play the entire first quarter for Green Bay before giving way to rookie Brian Brohm, who will lead the team in the middle two quarters with fellow rookie Matt Flynn slated to see fourth-quarter action.
Mike McCarthy?s squad is thin on the defensive line tonight with four defensive tackles and two defensive ends sitting this one out.
The Bengals will play starting QB Carson Palmer and the first-string offense for about 15 plays before Palmer gives way to Ryan Fitzpatrick for the rest of the half. Jeff Rowe will likely play the third quarter and expect to see Palmer?s brother, Jordan Palmer, get some mop-up action late in the game. Cincinnati will be without its top two WRs, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
Cincinnati is a mediocre 10-10 SU and 11-9 ATS in preseason action since Marvin Lewis took over as coach in 2003, including 3-7 on the road (5-5 ATS). Last August, the Bengals lost three of their four summer contests, going 0-2 on the highway (1-1 ATS).
The Packers are 3-5 SU and ATS under McCarthy the last two preseasons, including 2-2 SU and ATS at home. However, Green Bay has cashed in each of its two games as a favorite the past two Augusts.
These two met in the 2006 preseason in Cincinnati with the Bengals demolishing the Packers 48-17 as five-point favorites.
The over is 5-2 in Green Bay?s last seven preseason games overall, 3-1 in its last four at Lambeau and 5-1 in Cincinnati?s last six August road games dating to 2005.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (64-53) at L.A. Dodgers (58-59)
The N.L. East-leading Phillies head west to Dodger Stadium, where they?ll send Kyle Kendrick (10-5, 4.37 ERA) to the mound to face veteran Derek Lowe (8-10, 4.10) in the first matchup of the season between these squads.
Philadelphia leads New York by two games in the race for the N.L. East crown while the Dodgers sit 1? games behind Arizona in the N.L. West. The Phillies beat Pittsburgh 6-3 on Sunday to wrap up a brief six-game homestand at 3-3. Meanwhile Los Angeles went 2-4 on its just-completed road trip, including excruciating walk-off losses to the rival Giants on Saturday (3-2 in 10 innings) and Sunday (5-4).
The Phillies have won five of their last six against N.L. West opponents and five of their last six on the road. They?re also on impressive streaks of 40-19 in series openers, 15-5 when Kendrick starts and 13-3 when Kendrick works on the road. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 8-3 in its last 11 home games and 5-1 in Lowe?s last six versus the N.L. East.
Kendrick is 2-1 with a 1.45 ERA in his last three outings, and he?s gone 6-2 on the road this year. He blanked the Marlins on four hits over six innings in Wednesday?s 5-0 home victory. Kendrick faced the Dodgers twice last season and gave up a combined nine runs on 14 hits in 12 innings, splitting a pair of games that ended with identical 5-4 final scores.
Lowe had his worst outing of the season on Wednesday when he gave up eight runs on 13 hits in just 3 1/3 innings of a 9-6 loss in St. Louis. He?s just 6-5 at home despite a solid 2.72 ERA. For his career, he?s 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA and two saves in 10 appearances against the Phillies.
The over is 7-1 in Kendrick?s last eight starts against N.L. West teams and 4-1 in his last five road starts. Also, in this series, the over is on runs of 7-2-1 overall, 6-0-1 in Los Angeles and 4-1 when Lowe pitches. However, as a team, the Phillies have stayed under the total in five straight, while the Dodgers are on under streaks of 12-5 overall, 30-12 as a favorite, 27-11 at home, 7-3 with Lowe on the mound overall and 5-0 in Lowe?s last five at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (67-51) at Chicago White Sox (65-51)
The White Sox try to make it three of four against the Red Sox when they give the ball to lefty John Danks (9-4, 3.21) opposite Boston ace Josh Beckett (10-8, 4.08) at U.S. Cellular Field.
The teams have alternated wins and losses in the first three games of this four-game set, with Chicago holding on for a 6-5 victory on Sunday. The White Sox are 39-18 at home this year, and they?re 22-10 in their last 32 games against right-handed starters and 6-2 in Danks? last eight starts.
Boston has won six of its last nine, but the Red Sox are still on a 17-38 slide on the road against winning teams. This is the first series of the year between these two teams, but Boston is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings going back to 2007, including 5-2 in Chicago.
Beckett is just 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in his last three starts, and the Red Sox have lost five of his last eight outings. On Tuesday, he held the Royals to two runs on four hits in 6 2/3 innings of an 8-2 victory in Kansas City. He?s 3-0 with a 4.64 ERA in four career starts (21 1/3 innings) against Chicago.
Danks is 2-0 with a 4.34 ERA in his last three starts and was superb against the Tigers on Wednesday, allowing just one run on four hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 5-1 victory. He?s only seen Boston twice in his career, both last season, and gave up nine runs in 9 1/3 innings in a pair of defeats.
Boston is on runs of 19-8 with Beckett pitching on the road, 34-16 when he takes the hill as a favorite and 5-0 when he faces A.L. Central teams. Meanwhile, the White Sox are 8-3 in Danks? last 11 as an underdog and 5-2 in his last seven in Chicago, but just 2-5 in his last seven versus A.L. East squads.
The over is 17-6-1 in Chicago?s last 24 overall, 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two overall and 7-2 in the past nine clashes in Chicago.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER