Sports Insurance Adjusters 340-283-12 YTDBonus Play: Miami -110 vs Arizona
Monday 7/7 Service Plays
Another big day yesterday as we went 3-1!!! Last week was the week we needed!!! Let's repeat the same performance this week so we can inch closer to our 20K goal!! Today we only have 2 play's due to the unfriendly board. If we can get the 2-0 sweep then the day will be worth while!! Let's keep this train rolling!!
MLB
Reds RL -1.5 +125
Seattle RL -1.5 Even
Monday 7/7 Service Plays
Another big day yesterday as we went 3-1!!! Last week was the week we needed!!! Let's repeat the same performance this week so we can inch closer to our 20K goal!! Today we only have 2 play's due to the unfriendly board. If we can get the 2-0 sweep then the day will be worth while!! Let's keep this train rolling!!
MLB
Reds RL -1.5 +125
Seattle RL -1.5 Even
Major League Baseball-Tips
Match: Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals
Selection: Kansas City Royals
Handicap: Win match
Odd: 2.05
Match: Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies
Selection: Milwaukee Brewers
Handicap: Win match
Odd: 1.88
Match: St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Selection: St. Louis Cardinals
Handicap: -1 AH
Odd: 1.80
Match: Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals
Selection: Kansas City Royals
Handicap: Win match
Odd: 2.05
Match: Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies
Selection: Milwaukee Brewers
Handicap: Win match
Odd: 1.88
Match: St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Selection: St. Louis Cardinals
Handicap: -1 AH
Odd: 1.80
Wunderdog Sports Free Pick
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays
Time: Monday 07/07 7:10 PM Eastern
Pick: Kansas City +116 (moneyline)
The Tampa Bay Rays come home off a successful road trip, and they will open a series against former teammate James Shields and the Kansas City Royals. The Royals have played well on the road where they are 4-1-1 in their last six road series. Shields is certainly comfortable on the mound in Tampa Bay where he was 72-45 as a member of the Rays staff when pitching at home, and his last 24 starts here when with the Rays show them at 18-6. His only appearance against his former team shows a win where he worked seven innings, striking out seven, and allowing two runs on just five hits. The Rays are just 5-14 in their last 19 at home vs. a team with a winning record, and Kansas City is 20-6 on the road in Shields’ last 26 starts. Make the play on Kansas City.
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays
Time: Monday 07/07 7:10 PM Eastern
Pick: Kansas City +116 (moneyline)
The Tampa Bay Rays come home off a successful road trip, and they will open a series against former teammate James Shields and the Kansas City Royals. The Royals have played well on the road where they are 4-1-1 in their last six road series. Shields is certainly comfortable on the mound in Tampa Bay where he was 72-45 as a member of the Rays staff when pitching at home, and his last 24 starts here when with the Rays show them at 18-6. His only appearance against his former team shows a win where he worked seven innings, striking out seven, and allowing two runs on just five hits. The Rays are just 5-14 in their last 19 at home vs. a team with a winning record, and Kansas City is 20-6 on the road in Shields’ last 26 starts. Make the play on Kansas City.
SPORTS WAGERS
CINCINNATI -1½ +134 over Chicago
Edwin Jackson is very capable of throwing a strong game when his head is in it. Unfortunately, Jackson’s head is in it only about 50% of the time and this is one of those games that he may show up in body only. Jackson is coming off a 2-1 victory in Boston. A few days later the Cubbies would unload two of his buddies to the Athletics and that’s enough to upset this guy. There’s a reason that Jackson is pitching on his eighth team in the past 11 years and one of the reasons is his lack of focus. In his last three starts at Citizens Bank Park, Jackson is 0-3 with a 6.50 ERA after allowing 24 hits and 13 earned runs in 18 innings. His BAA at this venue is .348. The Cubbies are 0-2 since the trade and have been outscored 15-1 in those two games.
Mike Leake may only have a 6-7 record on the season but he’s having his best season skills wise, as his 3.32 xERA, 54% groundball rate and command (23 walks in 114 innings) are all career bests. He is yet to have a pure disaster outing in 17 starts this season. In 14 career starts versus the Cubs, he is 7-2 with a 3.04 ER in 94.2 IP. All of a sudden Leake is striking out more too, as his 32 K’s in in his last 32 innings will attest to. Leake has become an extremely reliable mid-rotation starter. His skills the first time through lineups give hope that he hasn't reached his ceiling yet. The Cubs have hit poorly versus right handed pitching this season, as they have a .229 BA and .656 OPS and they don’t figure to wake up here.
BOSTON -1½ +104 over Chicago
In Scott Carroll’s last two starts the White Sox are 0-2 and have been outscored 14-5. Carroll has made seven starts this season and has yet to record a pure quality one and that doesn’t figure to change here. As a starter, Carroll has been terrible, going 1-5 with a 6.75 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and 15/14 K/BB in 37.1 IP. The South Side has just 18 wins in 44 road games and they are a combined 22 for 95 (.232) lifetime against Clay Buchholz. Take out Paul Konerko’s 7 for 15 against Buchholz (Konerko can’t hit anymore) and that average dips under .200.
Boston woke up this morning in last place in the AL East. They have also scored the fewest runs in the American League. With guys like Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Mike Napoli and Brock Holt at the top of their lineup, how can that be? The Red Sox are a frustrated team that rallied from a 6-1 deficit yesterday against the O’s to send it to extra innings but still lost. However, they’ve scored 22 times in the last four games and also hung an eight up last week against New York. This team is built to score runs and they figure to take out their frustrations against this extremely weak starter. Clay Buchholz pitched 6.1 innings Tuesday, allowing only one run on five hits (no walks) while striking out two batters and taking a no-decision in the Red Sox' 2-1 loss to the Cubs. Buchholz now makes his third start since coming off the DL and he’s been pretty solid both games. In fact, since coming off the DL, Buchholz has not walked a batter in 13.1 innings and that’s a significant improvement after he walked 24 batters in his first 50 innings before he was sidelined. When his health cooperates, Buchholz can pitch. He had a 60% groundball rate in his last start and let’s not forget the incredible first half he had in 2013. Buchholz appears to be healthy and getting stronger and has a great chance to keep it going here. The total in this game is 10 and if the oddsmakers are close to that number, which they usually are, Boston is likely going to cover the run-line.
Pittsburgh +148 over ST. LOUIS
The Pirates have won an NL-best 12 of 15 and are 11-5 away from home since May 29. Pittsburgh has won three straight and six of its past seven. Charlie Morton is on a nice run, throwing a pure quality start in five of his last six starts, over which he has a 44/12 K/BB in 38 IP. In fact, Morton was absolutely electric in June, reminding us why he entered the season as a premium breakout target. His huge surge in strikeouts was supported by his 12% swing and miss rate. Only Clayton Kershaw had a higher K rate than Morton's 11.0/9 mark among pitchers with a 50%+ groundball rate. Backing groundball pitchers with a high K rate is a beautiful thing when being offered a price like this one.
Adam Wainwright's return from Tommy John surgery last year was a mixed bag at best. But he's leaving little doubt about his status as the club's ace so far this season. In his first 17 starts, Wainwright has an ERA of 1.89 and 106 Ks to go with just 24 walks in 124 IP. Wainwright is not the problem. The problem for Cardinals backers is that St. Louis is averaging just 2½ runs a game over their past 10 games. Without run support, it’s very difficult to win (see Cole Hamels) and that makes the Cardinals a huge risk when spotting a tag like this, especially against the hottest team in baseball.
CINCINNATI -1½ +134 over Chicago
Edwin Jackson is very capable of throwing a strong game when his head is in it. Unfortunately, Jackson’s head is in it only about 50% of the time and this is one of those games that he may show up in body only. Jackson is coming off a 2-1 victory in Boston. A few days later the Cubbies would unload two of his buddies to the Athletics and that’s enough to upset this guy. There’s a reason that Jackson is pitching on his eighth team in the past 11 years and one of the reasons is his lack of focus. In his last three starts at Citizens Bank Park, Jackson is 0-3 with a 6.50 ERA after allowing 24 hits and 13 earned runs in 18 innings. His BAA at this venue is .348. The Cubbies are 0-2 since the trade and have been outscored 15-1 in those two games.
Mike Leake may only have a 6-7 record on the season but he’s having his best season skills wise, as his 3.32 xERA, 54% groundball rate and command (23 walks in 114 innings) are all career bests. He is yet to have a pure disaster outing in 17 starts this season. In 14 career starts versus the Cubs, he is 7-2 with a 3.04 ER in 94.2 IP. All of a sudden Leake is striking out more too, as his 32 K’s in in his last 32 innings will attest to. Leake has become an extremely reliable mid-rotation starter. His skills the first time through lineups give hope that he hasn't reached his ceiling yet. The Cubs have hit poorly versus right handed pitching this season, as they have a .229 BA and .656 OPS and they don’t figure to wake up here.
BOSTON -1½ +104 over Chicago
In Scott Carroll’s last two starts the White Sox are 0-2 and have been outscored 14-5. Carroll has made seven starts this season and has yet to record a pure quality one and that doesn’t figure to change here. As a starter, Carroll has been terrible, going 1-5 with a 6.75 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and 15/14 K/BB in 37.1 IP. The South Side has just 18 wins in 44 road games and they are a combined 22 for 95 (.232) lifetime against Clay Buchholz. Take out Paul Konerko’s 7 for 15 against Buchholz (Konerko can’t hit anymore) and that average dips under .200.
Boston woke up this morning in last place in the AL East. They have also scored the fewest runs in the American League. With guys like Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Mike Napoli and Brock Holt at the top of their lineup, how can that be? The Red Sox are a frustrated team that rallied from a 6-1 deficit yesterday against the O’s to send it to extra innings but still lost. However, they’ve scored 22 times in the last four games and also hung an eight up last week against New York. This team is built to score runs and they figure to take out their frustrations against this extremely weak starter. Clay Buchholz pitched 6.1 innings Tuesday, allowing only one run on five hits (no walks) while striking out two batters and taking a no-decision in the Red Sox' 2-1 loss to the Cubs. Buchholz now makes his third start since coming off the DL and he’s been pretty solid both games. In fact, since coming off the DL, Buchholz has not walked a batter in 13.1 innings and that’s a significant improvement after he walked 24 batters in his first 50 innings before he was sidelined. When his health cooperates, Buchholz can pitch. He had a 60% groundball rate in his last start and let’s not forget the incredible first half he had in 2013. Buchholz appears to be healthy and getting stronger and has a great chance to keep it going here. The total in this game is 10 and if the oddsmakers are close to that number, which they usually are, Boston is likely going to cover the run-line.
Pittsburgh +148 over ST. LOUIS
The Pirates have won an NL-best 12 of 15 and are 11-5 away from home since May 29. Pittsburgh has won three straight and six of its past seven. Charlie Morton is on a nice run, throwing a pure quality start in five of his last six starts, over which he has a 44/12 K/BB in 38 IP. In fact, Morton was absolutely electric in June, reminding us why he entered the season as a premium breakout target. His huge surge in strikeouts was supported by his 12% swing and miss rate. Only Clayton Kershaw had a higher K rate than Morton's 11.0/9 mark among pitchers with a 50%+ groundball rate. Backing groundball pitchers with a high K rate is a beautiful thing when being offered a price like this one.
Adam Wainwright's return from Tommy John surgery last year was a mixed bag at best. But he's leaving little doubt about his status as the club's ace so far this season. In his first 17 starts, Wainwright has an ERA of 1.89 and 106 Ks to go with just 24 walks in 124 IP. Wainwright is not the problem. The problem for Cardinals backers is that St. Louis is averaging just 2½ runs a game over their past 10 games. Without run support, it’s very difficult to win (see Cole Hamels) and that makes the Cardinals a huge risk when spotting a tag like this, especially against the hottest team in baseball.
Vince Akins
VegasInsider
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
-- The Red Sox are 10-0 since June 29, 2007 as a home favorite after an extra inning loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
-- When Mike Minor starts the Braves are 10-0 since September 10, 2010 after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start for a net profit of $1110.
MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Rockies are 11-1 (+$975) since 2013 as a favorite when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher that season.
CHOICE TREND:
-- The Indians are 10-0 since August 12, 2011 as a favorite when their starter went less than four innings in his last start for a net profit of $1000.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
-- When Kevin Correia starts the Twins are 1-12 since June 25, 2013 in the first game of a series for a net profit of $1030 when playing against.
VegasInsider
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
-- The Red Sox are 10-0 since June 29, 2007 as a home favorite after an extra inning loss and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
-- When Mike Minor starts the Braves are 10-0 since September 10, 2010 after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start for a net profit of $1110.
MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Rockies are 11-1 (+$975) since 2013 as a favorite when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher that season.
CHOICE TREND:
-- The Indians are 10-0 since August 12, 2011 as a favorite when their starter went less than four innings in his last start for a net profit of $1000.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
-- When Kevin Correia starts the Twins are 1-12 since June 25, 2013 in the first game of a series for a net profit of $1030 when playing against.
BOB BALFE
BOSTON RED SOX/CHICAGO WHITE SOX – OVER 10
(Buchholz/Carroll)
I don’t know how these pitchers still are in the rotation for these two teams. Both of these guys have been rocked this year. With the wind blowing out gusting to center field tonight what are the chances of both of them throwing a gem? Look for a lot of runs early and often this evening. Take the Over.
BOSTON RED SOX/CHICAGO WHITE SOX – OVER 10
(Buchholz/Carroll)
I don’t know how these pitchers still are in the rotation for these two teams. Both of these guys have been rocked this year. With the wind blowing out gusting to center field tonight what are the chances of both of them throwing a gem? Look for a lot of runs early and often this evening. Take the Over.
BOB BALFE
BOSTON RED SOX/CHICAGO WHITE SOX – OVER 10
(Buchholz/Carroll)
I don’t know how these pitchers still are in the rotation for these two teams. Both of these guys have been rocked this year. With the wind blowing out gusting to center field tonight what are the chances of both of them throwing a gem? Look for a lot of runs early and often this evening. Take the Over.
BOSTON RED SOX/CHICAGO WHITE SOX – OVER 10
(Buchholz/Carroll)
I don’t know how these pitchers still are in the rotation for these two teams. Both of these guys have been rocked this year. With the wind blowing out gusting to center field tonight what are the chances of both of them throwing a gem? Look for a lot of runs early and often this evening. Take the Over.
NonStopSportsPicks
Thought I would periodically start posting some thoughts on a few of the games as I go through them for the client card. I typically go through the card and make my "own lines" and from there see what the lines the books hang are and compare for variances. Then I try to see WHY the lines are so off and if there's merit to the books or where I put the lines. It helps a lot especially in terms of public teams. I don't care about WHO bets the Yankees (a huge public team), and so often we get VALUE on those. Remember, Vegas doesn't set lines for who they think wins….they set lines for where they think the bets will come in. In most cases, the books don't care WHO wins…they simply want to have split action with juice on either side to make money. Sometimes, the books do take a position, but it's rare.
Anyways, here's a couple MLB games I've started digging into:
- Phillies vs Brewers – The Phillies are a team who underachieves and Hamels has actually been impressive this season. That being said, where does the offense come from? They're absolutely anemic! And that's not to mention that after Hamels goes 6-7 if he has a good start, the Phillies bullpen is putrid. Early money in this one to the OVER and Brewers, which I agree with the Brewers move. If that total is coming up, that HAS to mean "they" think the Brewers can and will score off Hamels.
- KC/Tampa Bay – Off of a big win last night where Price pitched a gem (for those of you who follow me on Twitter we ca$hed a 2* bet on the UNDER 10.5 in live betting we placed after the 1st inning), the Rays have to travel home off a road trip and got in VERY late to Tampa Bay. The Royals played earlier in the day and are much more fresh. And this is the point in the season where we like to fade home teams off a road trip and the players are just like everyone else in the sense that they have families, issues to deal with, and stresses at home. So we're going to most likely have a play on KC later today, but we'll wait for the public to push this line closer to -130 and we can get + money on the Royals.
Also looking into greater detail, in no particular order, for the Rockies/Padres UNDER 10.5, CW Sox +150 and/or +1.5 R/L (who is Buckholtz to be -180 this season), the Braves, and a couple others as well.
The Giants got it done yesterday as a dog & it was posted as a FREE WINNER
I'm actually looking at them again today, but will need to find more substantiave facts to back them against Chavez (who I think has peaked and now regression sets is). Can I get the cahones to back Vogelsong?!? Looking hard into it.
Thought I would periodically start posting some thoughts on a few of the games as I go through them for the client card. I typically go through the card and make my "own lines" and from there see what the lines the books hang are and compare for variances. Then I try to see WHY the lines are so off and if there's merit to the books or where I put the lines. It helps a lot especially in terms of public teams. I don't care about WHO bets the Yankees (a huge public team), and so often we get VALUE on those. Remember, Vegas doesn't set lines for who they think wins….they set lines for where they think the bets will come in. In most cases, the books don't care WHO wins…they simply want to have split action with juice on either side to make money. Sometimes, the books do take a position, but it's rare.
Anyways, here's a couple MLB games I've started digging into:
- Phillies vs Brewers – The Phillies are a team who underachieves and Hamels has actually been impressive this season. That being said, where does the offense come from? They're absolutely anemic! And that's not to mention that after Hamels goes 6-7 if he has a good start, the Phillies bullpen is putrid. Early money in this one to the OVER and Brewers, which I agree with the Brewers move. If that total is coming up, that HAS to mean "they" think the Brewers can and will score off Hamels.
- KC/Tampa Bay – Off of a big win last night where Price pitched a gem (for those of you who follow me on Twitter we ca$hed a 2* bet on the UNDER 10.5 in live betting we placed after the 1st inning), the Rays have to travel home off a road trip and got in VERY late to Tampa Bay. The Royals played earlier in the day and are much more fresh. And this is the point in the season where we like to fade home teams off a road trip and the players are just like everyone else in the sense that they have families, issues to deal with, and stresses at home. So we're going to most likely have a play on KC later today, but we'll wait for the public to push this line closer to -130 and we can get + money on the Royals.
Also looking into greater detail, in no particular order, for the Rockies/Padres UNDER 10.5, CW Sox +150 and/or +1.5 R/L (who is Buckholtz to be -180 this season), the Braves, and a couple others as well.
The Giants got it done yesterday as a dog & it was posted as a FREE WINNER
I'm actually looking at them again today, but will need to find more substantiave facts to back them against Chavez (who I think has peaked and now regression sets is). Can I get the cahones to back Vogelsong?!? Looking hard into it.
Primetime Insiders
3* Plays
Atlanta -125
Surprised to see this number only at -125 with the surging Braves agains the Mets tonight at Citi Field. The Braves bring lefty throwing Mike Minor to the mound while the Mets bring Diasuke Matsuzaka. Minor has struggled on the mound thus far this season with a record of 2-5 and an ERA sitting just south of 5 but per our system is bound for a rebound against the Mets. Diasuke was battered last time against the Braves giving up 5 earned runs and it is pointing to a similar outcome tonight. Atlanta 5 Mets 2
San Diego and Colorado Under 10.5
This number is coming in very inflated. We have the best hitting team in baseball against the worst hitting team in baseball. We know the game is at Coors Field but the wind is blowing in very strong. Kennedy is very underrated per our system and should be able to fan quite a few batters tonight as he is striking out 9.5 batters per nine innings. Matzek is also underrated per our system and should be able to limit the damage against the poor hitting Padres. Colorado 4 Padres 3
2* Plays
Miami and Arizona Under 9
1* Plays
Colorado -115
Kansas City +111
Chicago and Cincinnati Under 7.5
3* Plays
Atlanta -125
Surprised to see this number only at -125 with the surging Braves agains the Mets tonight at Citi Field. The Braves bring lefty throwing Mike Minor to the mound while the Mets bring Diasuke Matsuzaka. Minor has struggled on the mound thus far this season with a record of 2-5 and an ERA sitting just south of 5 but per our system is bound for a rebound against the Mets. Diasuke was battered last time against the Braves giving up 5 earned runs and it is pointing to a similar outcome tonight. Atlanta 5 Mets 2
San Diego and Colorado Under 10.5
This number is coming in very inflated. We have the best hitting team in baseball against the worst hitting team in baseball. We know the game is at Coors Field but the wind is blowing in very strong. Kennedy is very underrated per our system and should be able to fan quite a few batters tonight as he is striking out 9.5 batters per nine innings. Matzek is also underrated per our system and should be able to limit the damage against the poor hitting Padres. Colorado 4 Padres 3
2* Plays
Miami and Arizona Under 9
1* Plays
Colorado -115
Kansas City +111
Chicago and Cincinnati Under 7.5
