Wunderdog Sports
SARATOGA Race #2 at 1:35 PM Eastern
Top pick: #6 (ZIPPY LARRY) - Filly by "City Zip" looked sharp winning at Belmont June 23 for $25K and her barn (John Parisella) drops her in an attempt tp make it two in a row. That win was a career best and Dominguez is aboard for the re-ride. The top selection.
2nd pick: #5 (Flaming Punch) - Speed/stalker moves back to the dirt and drops a bit after chasing and tiring last out on the Belmont lawn. Previous race was strong and she's a threat from just off the top.
3rd pick: #7 (Primed to be Ready) - She was involved in a spirited pace-duel last out in a starter-allowance and finished a tired fourth. That snapped a two race winning streak and she's can contend today with a more patirnt ride.
4th pick: #1 (Taza) - Daughter of "Indian Charlie" has good early speed, takes a sizeable drop, and she draws the rail. Cohen abandons for "Punch" but Lexcano has done very well riding for Nick Zito (23%).
SARATOGA Race #2 at 1:35 PM Eastern
Top pick: #6 (ZIPPY LARRY) - Filly by "City Zip" looked sharp winning at Belmont June 23 for $25K and her barn (John Parisella) drops her in an attempt tp make it two in a row. That win was a career best and Dominguez is aboard for the re-ride. The top selection.
2nd pick: #5 (Flaming Punch) - Speed/stalker moves back to the dirt and drops a bit after chasing and tiring last out on the Belmont lawn. Previous race was strong and she's a threat from just off the top.
3rd pick: #7 (Primed to be Ready) - She was involved in a spirited pace-duel last out in a starter-allowance and finished a tired fourth. That snapped a two race winning streak and she's can contend today with a more patirnt ride.
4th pick: #1 (Taza) - Daughter of "Indian Charlie" has good early speed, takes a sizeable drop, and she draws the rail. Cohen abandons for "Punch" but Lexcano has done very well riding for Nick Zito (23%).
COMPS:
1. NSA(The Legend) MLB - White Sox over 6.5
2. Ray "The Playmaker" Bowden MLB - Brewers under 9
3. VegasSI.com MLB - Phillies -125
4. SportsAction365.com MLB - Red Sox -112
5. Gameday Network MLB - Brewers -115
6. William E. Stockton MLB - Marlins under 7.5
7. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino MLB - Yankees -180
8. Lou Panelli MLB - Twins -115
9. Steve "Scoop" Kendall MLB - Rays over 8.5
10. Vincent Pioli MLB - Astros +127
11. John Morrison MLB - Rays under 8.5
12. Tony Campone MLB - Orioles +175
13. Chicago Sports Group MLB - Brewers over 9
14. Hollywood Sportsline MLB - Orioles +175
15. VIP Action MLB - Yankees -180
16. South Beach Sports MLB - Phillies under 9
17. Michigan Sports MLB - Red Sox under 9
18. NY Players Club MLB - Marlins +115
19. Charlies Sports MLB - Astros +127
20. Fred Callahan MLB - Phillies over 9
1. NSA(The Legend) MLB - White Sox over 6.5
2. Ray "The Playmaker" Bowden MLB - Brewers under 9
3. VegasSI.com MLB - Phillies -125
4. SportsAction365.com MLB - Red Sox -112
5. Gameday Network MLB - Brewers -115
6. William E. Stockton MLB - Marlins under 7.5
7. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino MLB - Yankees -180
8. Lou Panelli MLB - Twins -115
9. Steve "Scoop" Kendall MLB - Rays over 8.5
10. Vincent Pioli MLB - Astros +127
11. John Morrison MLB - Rays under 8.5
12. Tony Campone MLB - Orioles +175
13. Chicago Sports Group MLB - Brewers over 9
14. Hollywood Sportsline MLB - Orioles +175
15. VIP Action MLB - Yankees -180
16. South Beach Sports MLB - Phillies under 9
17. Michigan Sports MLB - Red Sox under 9
18. NY Players Club MLB - Marlins +115
19. Charlies Sports MLB - Astros +127
20. Fred Callahan MLB - Phillies over 9
SPORTS WAGERS / RANDEL THE HANDEL
Florida +1.22 over SAN FRANCISCO Pinnacle
First off, the Marlins are much better vs lefties (17-11) than they are vs righties (31-38). They’ll face the misleading numbers of Barry Zito here and while numbers or stats don’t lie, in Zito’s case they do. Zito has had a lot of good games recently and thus the low ERA but a closer look reveals that the only thing you should believe is that “this is still the same Barry Zito”. Zito has pitched very well in five of his last nine starts. He was effective against the Dodgers twice, the Mets, the Blue Jays and Oakland. The Dodgers are batting .225 over its last 12 games and the Mets are batting .211. Against Milwaukee, he allowed just two runs but walked six and surrendered seven hits in 4.2 innings. Against Houston, Cinci and Colorado he was rocked and that’s been his story over the last nine games. Zito has a groundball rate of just 36%, an awfully low number and the reason his ERA is low is because of a lucky strand rate of 74%. His xERA is 4.95 and that means a correction in his actual ERA is forthcoming for sure. Ricky Nolasco is pure quality, end of story. He has 110 K’s and just 25 walks in 124 frames. When he’s on he’s one of the best in the business and lately he’s been on. In fact, Nolasco has pitched at least seven innings or more in five of his last six starts and historically, he’s been wickedly good in the second half. Both these teams are hot (the Marlins have won seven of nine) but we’ll go against the overvalued and very average Zito here plus a tag. Play: Florida +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO –1½ +1.09 over Baltimore Pinnacle
Huge pitching mismatch sees the low skills of Brad Bergeson going up against the highly skilled Brandon Morrow. Bergeson has allowed 115 hits in 83 frames for a BAA of .327. On the road his BAA is .341. In two starts vs the Jays this year, covering just 10.1 innings, Bergeson has allowed 17 hits, two jacks and nine runs for a BAA of .378 and an ERA of 7.59. Overall his ERA is 6.75 and in six road starts his ERA is 6.82. It doesn’t get better either. This stiff has 28 walks and 34 K’s in 83 innings and why he’s pitching at this level is a mystery because he simply cannot retire nor strike out major league hitters. Meanwhile, Brandon Morrow is 5-1 at home with a 3.27 ERA. He has 119 K’s in 107 innings and struck out eight O’s in seven frames last week in Baltimore. Morrow has electric stuff and facing an Orioles team that has won just 13 of 47 road games should be a breeze. Biggest mismatch on the board and it’s not close. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.22 over SAN FRANCISCO Pinnacle
First off, the Marlins are much better vs lefties (17-11) than they are vs righties (31-38). They’ll face the misleading numbers of Barry Zito here and while numbers or stats don’t lie, in Zito’s case they do. Zito has had a lot of good games recently and thus the low ERA but a closer look reveals that the only thing you should believe is that “this is still the same Barry Zito”. Zito has pitched very well in five of his last nine starts. He was effective against the Dodgers twice, the Mets, the Blue Jays and Oakland. The Dodgers are batting .225 over its last 12 games and the Mets are batting .211. Against Milwaukee, he allowed just two runs but walked six and surrendered seven hits in 4.2 innings. Against Houston, Cinci and Colorado he was rocked and that’s been his story over the last nine games. Zito has a groundball rate of just 36%, an awfully low number and the reason his ERA is low is because of a lucky strand rate of 74%. His xERA is 4.95 and that means a correction in his actual ERA is forthcoming for sure. Ricky Nolasco is pure quality, end of story. He has 110 K’s and just 25 walks in 124 frames. When he’s on he’s one of the best in the business and lately he’s been on. In fact, Nolasco has pitched at least seven innings or more in five of his last six starts and historically, he’s been wickedly good in the second half. Both these teams are hot (the Marlins have won seven of nine) but we’ll go against the overvalued and very average Zito here plus a tag. Play: Florida +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO –1½ +1.09 over Baltimore Pinnacle
Huge pitching mismatch sees the low skills of Brad Bergeson going up against the highly skilled Brandon Morrow. Bergeson has allowed 115 hits in 83 frames for a BAA of .327. On the road his BAA is .341. In two starts vs the Jays this year, covering just 10.1 innings, Bergeson has allowed 17 hits, two jacks and nine runs for a BAA of .378 and an ERA of 7.59. Overall his ERA is 6.75 and in six road starts his ERA is 6.82. It doesn’t get better either. This stiff has 28 walks and 34 K’s in 83 innings and why he’s pitching at this level is a mystery because he simply cannot retire nor strike out major league hitters. Meanwhile, Brandon Morrow is 5-1 at home with a 3.27 ERA. He has 119 K’s in 107 innings and struck out eight O’s in seven frames last week in Baltimore. Morrow has electric stuff and facing an Orioles team that has won just 13 of 47 road games should be a breeze. Biggest mismatch on the board and it’s not close. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
