jeff benton monday
1-1 yesterday MINUS 10 dimes or $160..overall, 7073-3 minus 40 dimes.
Monday's Winners ... 15 DIME selection on the
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES over the Cincinnati Reds in the opener of a three-game series from Great American Ballpark. As I pualish today’s plays at about 12:35 p.m. Eastern, the Phillies are a +115 to +125 underdog both here in Las Vegas and offshore. Note that Kyle Kendrick must start this game for Philadelephia or this play is VOID!
5 DIME selection on the
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the opener of a three-game series from AT&T Park in San Francisco. As I publish today’s plays, the line in this game is raning from a pick-em to the Giants as a slight favorite of -115 both here in Las Vegas and offshore. Note that Barry Zito must start this game for San Francisco, or this play is VOID.
Phillies
Before we get to the Phillies, let’s focus on Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto, who has had a roller-coaster ride of a season.
It started off pretty ugly, as he went 1-1 with a 5.33 ERA in five April contests, then turned things around and went 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA in five starts in May. Then June hit and had three straight disastraus performances (17 runs allowed in 17 innings before coming up big in his last two starts (one run allowed in 12 2/3 innings).
However, it’s important to look at Cueto’s competition. For instance, during his dominant May, he faced the Pirates (twice), Brewers, Indians and Mets (before the Mets got hot). Then he got cuffed around by three pretty good hitting teams (St. Louis, San Francisco and Kansas City) before mowing down the offensively challenged Mariners and A’s in his last two outings.
Tonight, Cueto runs up against Rollins, Utley, Howard and the Phillies. It’s a daunting lineup for any pitcher, but it’s especially scary for Cueto. He’s faced Philadelphia twice in his young career – both times last year – and not only did he lose both games, he gave up 13 runs in 7 2/3 innings. That includes a 22-1 loss on July 6, when Cueto lasted just 2/3 of an inning in Philly and gave up nine runs!
Well, Philadelphia comes into this game swinging the heavy lumber again. The Phillies have tallied six runs or more in eight of their last 11 games, including nine runs or more six times in their last nine contests. Over this 11-game stretch, the Phillies are 8-3, and they’re batting nearly .290. By comparison, the Reds’ offense is slumpeing, hitting just .239 in its last 10 games.
That’s good news for Phillies right-hander Kyle Kendrick, who like Cueto has had a bit of an up-and-down season. But Philadelphia is 7-2 in his last nine trips to the mound, including 3-1 on the road. In fact, Kendrick has been much better on the highway this year (2-0, 3.20 ERA) than at home (2-2, 6.62 ERA). The last time Kendrick pitched on the road was 12 days ago at Yankee Stadium, and he dominated the Bronx Bombers in a 7-1 victory, allowing just a run on four hits in seven innings, with Philadelphia cashing as a +200 underdog.
One last note about Kendrick: He’s made three starts against the Reds in his career, and while he gave up four runs in all three contests, the Phillies won all three games by scores of 5-4, 8-4 and 11-4. That’s not much of a surpoise because Philadelphia has had Cincinnati’s number recently, winning 14 of the last 20 meetings overall and 10 of the last 14 at Great American Ballpark. The Phillies are also on upticks of 4-1 on the road and 43-20 against N.L. Central opponents
Giants
The Dodgers are a complete disaster right now. After blowing a 6-2, ninth-inning lead last night and losing to the Yankees 8-6 in 10 innings – easily their worst loss of the season – the Dodgers have now dropped 11 of their last 15 games (including six of their last seven on the road).
Granted, the Giants – who fell 5-1 to Boston on Sunday and cost me my 20 Dime Best Bet – have been spinning their wheels, too, lately (4-7 last 11 games). However, they’re still 15-6 in their last 21 home games and 25-14 at AT&T Park on the season (conversely, the Dodgers are 16-20 away from L.A.).
San Francisco has a solid pitching advantage here, too, with Barry Zito (7-4, 3.45 ERA) matching up against Chad Billingsley (6-4, 4.34 ERA). Billingsley is coming off a two-week stint on the disabled list, which was preceded by four shaky starts in which he gave up 16 runs and 32 hits in 25 innings (5.76 ERA), including a 10-1 home loss to the Angels on June 11 (seven runs allowed in 5 2/3 innings).
Zito has been a beast at home this season (2.82 ERA) and he’s finally figured out the Dodgers (2.29 ERA last three starts against them). Of course, most lefties have had their way with L.A. this season, as the Dodgers are batting just .248 against southpaws, which is why they’ve lost four of their last five overall against left-handed starters and 11 of 16 on the road against lefty starters.
This is a huge game for San Francisco, which has yet to play the Dodgers at home this season and it leads L.A. by a half-game as both teams try to catch the first-place Padres. Given the emotional state of the Dodgers after last night’s debacle against the Yankees, given the uncertainty of Billingsley coming off the DL and given Zito’s success at home in 2010, this is a very reasonable price to lay with the Giants.