STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB PITCHING REPORT
MONDAY, JUNE 2ND 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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#951 PITTSBURGH @ #952 SAN DIEGO - 10:10 PM
•Pirates RH Charlie Morton (1-7, 3.29 ERA, WHIP: 1.288) - Morton lasted just 5 1/3 innings in his last start, allowing three runs (two earned) against the Mets on Wednesday. The 30-year-old yielded two or fewer runs in five of his six starts last month, but still enters Monday’s contest with just one victory. Seth Smith is 3-for-6 with a homer against Morton, who is 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in three career starts against San Diego, including eight innings of one-run ball last Sept. 18.
--KEY STAT: MORTON is 15-36 (-17.8 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was MORTON 3.1, OPPONENT 5.1.
•Padres RH Tim Stauffer (2-1, 4.50 ERA, WHIP: 1.500) - Stauffer saw his ERA climb from 1.90 to 4.50 on Wednesday against Arizona, when he allowed seven runs in the first inning and exited after recording just one out. The 31-year-old, who is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four career games (one start) against the Pirates, was moved into the rotation after Andrew Cashner and Robbie Erlin landed on the disabled list. Stauffer has been part of the Padres organization since being drafted fourth overall in 2003.
--KEY STAT: STAUFFER is 16-5 UNDER (+10.2 Units) in home games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was STAUFFER 3.4, OPPONENT 2.8.
--STAUFFER is 16-3 UNDER (+12.5 Units) in home games after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was STAUFFER 2.6, OPPONENT 2.3 - (Rating = 2*)
#953 BOSTON @ #954 CLEVELAND - 7:05 PM
•Red Sox RH John Lackey (6-3, 3.27 ERA, WHIP: 1.242) - Lackey struck out nine in 6 1/3 scoreless innings to earn a win over the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday and has not allowed a run in 13 1/3 frames over his last two starts. The veteran surrendered two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven outings. Lackey made one start against Cleveland last season and allowed just one unearned run on two hits in seven innings to pick up a win.
--KEY STAT: LACKEY is 20-9 UNDER (+10.0 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 3.9, OPPONENT 4.0.
--LACKEY is 11-1 UNDER (+9.8 Units) after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 2.9, OPPONENT 3.7.
--LACKEY is 1-7 against the run line (-9.4 Units) in road games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 3.0, OPPONENT 5.3.
•Indians RH Justin Masterson (2-4, 5.21 ERA, WHIP: 1.545) - Masterson was limited to three innings due to a lengthy rain delay on Tuesday but suffered the loss at the Chicago White Sox after yielding a run on four hits. The former Boston farmhand has been knocked around for 18 runs in 18 1/3 innings while going 0-3 in his last four starts. Masterson made two starts against the Red Sox in 2013 and lost both, allowing a total of nine runs and 17 hits in 11 innings.
--KEY STAT: MASTERSON is 12-1 (+11.6 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MASTERSON 4.3, OPPONENT 2.2.
--MASTERSON is 17-6 UNDER (+10.7 Units) versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MASTERSON 3.8, OPPONENT 4.0.
#955 TAMPA BAY @ #956 MIAMI - 7:10 PM
•Rays RH Alex Cobb (1-2, 2.93 ERA, WHIP: 1.043) - Cobb was pushed back one day to get some extra rest as he continues to build strength following a lengthy stint on the disabled list. The 26-year-old posted 24 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings before the fourth inning of a start at Toronto last Tuesday and ended up charged with six runs on nine hits in a loss. Cobb is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in two career starts against Miami.
•Marlins LH Randy Wolf (0-1, 4.50 ERA, WHIP: 1.400) - Wolf was picked up last month when the Marlins were hit with injuries to their starting rotation and built some length with a pair of appearances out of the bullpen before making his first start on May 25. The 37-year-old surrendered six runs - four earned - on nine hits over five innings to suffer a loss against Milwaukee. Wolf does not have a long track record against Tampa Bay but has held shortstop Yunel Escobar to 2-for-11 in his career.
--KEY STAT: WOLF is 23-9 (+14.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7.5 or less since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WOLF 4.6, OPPONENT 4.0.
--WOLF is 0-10 against the run line (-12.4 Units) versus American League teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WOLF 3.0, OPPONENT 5.3.
#957 MINNESOTA @ #958 MILWAUKEE - 7:20 PM
•Twins RH Kyle Gibson (4-4, 4.18 ERA, WHIP: 1.375) - Gibson was brilliant his last time out with six scoreless innings, but he got a no-decision as the Twins were on the wrong end of a 1-0 game. He has had trouble stringing together strong outings though, and hasn't recorded consecutive quality starts since mid-April. The 26-year-old has never faced the Brewers.
•Brewers RH Matt Garza (2-4, 4.84 ERA, WHIP: 1.313) - Garza is winless in his last four starts but has recorded quality starts in three of his last five outings. He allowed only three earned runs over 6 2/3 innings last time out, but he was derailed by three unearned runs in the seventh. The 30-year-old is 0-1 with a 2.57 ERA in two matchups against his former team -- both quality starts.
--KEY STAT: GARZA is 15-2 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GARZA 5.4, OPPONENT 3.5.
--GARZA is 39-86 against the run line (-39.1 Units) as a favorite when the run line price is -190 to +175 since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was GARZA 4.3, OPPONENT 4.1.
#959 KANSAS CITY @ #960 ST LOUIS - 8:10 PM
•Royals LH Danny Duffy (2-5, 3.57 ERA, WHIP: 1.246) - Duffy's transition to the starting rotation got off to a stellar beginning, but he has been roughed up in consecutive losses. The 25-year-old has allowed 11 runs (10 earned) and 16 hits in 10 innings over his last two starts and was hurt by five walks in Wednesday's loss to Houston. Duffy made one start against St. Louis in 2011 and allowed two runs in 3 2/3 innings while striking out nine.
•Cardinals RH Shelby Miller (6-4, 3.94 ERA, WHIP: 1.460) - Miller's streakiness continues, as he has followed a run of six straight wins with consecutive losses. His last outing was his worst of the season as the Yankees tagged him for seven runs and nine hits over five frames. The 23-year-old has never faced the Royals, but he's 2-3 with a 6.99 ERA in six starts during interleague play.
--KEY STAT: MILLER is 13-7 against the run line (+9.3 Units) at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MILLER 4.7, OPPONENT 3.3.
#961 CHI WHITE SOX @ #962 LA DODGERS - 10:10 PM
•White Sox LH Jose Quintana (3-4, 3.61 ERA, WHIP: 1.262) - Quintana has been a model of consistency this season while allowing three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 11 starts. “He might give up a hit per inning, but he always keeps you in a game,” Indians manager Terry Francona said after watching Quintana hold his team to two runs over six innings last Monday. The 25-year-old is making his first start against the Dodgers since June 17, 2012, when he tossed eight shutout innings in Chicago’s 2-1 victory.
--KEY STAT: QUINTANA is 23-10 UNDER (+11.8 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was QUINTANA 3.8, OPPONENT 3.5.
--QUINTANA is 13-4 UNDER (+8.7 Units) when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was QUINTANA 3.0, OPPONENT 3.8.
•Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (3-2, 3.57 ERA, WHIP: 1.217) - Kershaw bounced back from a dismal outing against Arizona with two strong starts, including Wednesday against Cincinnati when he allowed three runs over seven frames. The two-time Cy Young award winner is 6-3 with a 2.67 ERA in 17 career interleague games, including a 0-1 mark and 5.40 ERA in two starts against the White Sox. Adam Dunn is 8-for-13 with four homers against Kershaw, who owns a 46-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
--KEY STAT: KERSHAW is 10-23 against the run line (-13.9 Units) as a home favorite when the run line price is +135 to -190 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KERSHAW 3.1, OPPONENT 2.6.
--KERSHAW is 3-12 against the run line (-10.0 Units) in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KERSHAW 2.7, OPPONENT 2.9.
#963 NY METS @ #964 PHILADELPHIA - 7:05 PM
•Mets RH Bartolo Colon (4-5, 4.73 ERA, WHIP: 1.283) - Colon has defeated the Nationals and Pirates during his winning streak, firing eight innings of two-run ball against Washington before pitching 7 1/3 shutout innings with a season-high nine strikeouts Wednesday against Pittsburgh. He is pitching to contact – opponents are hitting .286 against him, but the veteran has walked only seven hitters in 64 2/3 innings. Colon owns a 1-2 record and 4.65 ERA in five career starts against the Phillies.
--KEY STAT: COLON is 12-2 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was COLON 6.1, OPPONENT 3.7.
--COLON is 28-14 (+14.0 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COLON 4.7, OPPONENT 3.4.
•Phillies RH Roberto Hernandez (2-2, 3.76 ERA, WHIP: 1.556) - Hernandez has made two appearances against the Mets this season, surrendering one run on six hits in five innings May 9 and pitching two-third of an inning of scoreless relief two days later. He got a no-decision against the Rockies on Wednesday, allowing two runs on six hits with five walks in 5 2/3 innings. Hernandez has made three career appearances against New York, posting a 1.50 ERA.
--KEY STAT: HERNANDEZ is 33-16 UNDER (+14.8 Units) in home games versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HERNANDEZ 3.4, OPPONENT 4.2.
--HERNANDEZ is 39-19 UNDER (+17.3 Units) versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HERNANDEZ 3.8, OPPONENT 4.0.
#965 SEATTLE @ #966 NY YANKEES - 7:05 PM
•Mariners RH Felix Hernandez (7-1, 2.57 ERA, WHIP: 1.024) - Hernandez has worked eight or more innings in each of his last three starts, allowing only four runs and 16 hits during the stretch. He struck out nine and gave up one run and four hits in 8 2/3 innings against the Los Angeles Angels in his last turn. Hernandez is 8-5 with a 2.89 ERA and two shutouts in 16 career starts against the Yankees.
--KEY STAT: HERNANDEZ is 20-6 UNDER (+13.3 Units) as a road favorite of -125 to -150 since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HERNANDEZ 3.5, OPPONENT 3.0.
--HERNANDEZ is 35-80 against the run line (-36.5 Units) as a favorite when the run line price is +115 to +160 since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HERNANDEZ 3.6, OPPONENT 3.7.
•Yankees RH David Phelps (1-2, 3.38 ERA, WHIP: 1.425) - Phelps has lost consecutive starts to the Chicago White Sox and St. Louis. He gave up five runs (three earned) and eight hits in six innings against the Cardinals on Tuesday in his last turn. Phelps is 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA in two career appearances (one start) against Seattle.
--KEY STAT: PHELPS is 1-11 against the run line (-10.9 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was PHELPS 4.3, OPPONENT 5.0.
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