Dave Cokin
White Sox/Pirates Under 7 -115 (Rodon/Liriano)
This should be a pitching duel. White Sox are pretty awful vs. lefties and they see a good one here in Francisco Liriano. Liriano has a high ERA at home, but that's pretty misleading. Carlos Rodon walks are going to be an issue, but his stuff is pretty unhittable at times and it's not like the Bucs are a monster against southpaws. Bullpens are both actually pretty fresh even with some innings logged by Pittsburgh over the weekend. Pitching should dominate hitting here and I'll play this Under.
Rockies/Astros Under 7.5 -120 (Bettis/Keuchel)
Astros had two double digit explosions last three days, but with the way surprising Chad Bettis has pitched recently, willing to take my chances that won't happen again tonight. Good luck to the Rockies trying to solve the Dallas Keuchel riddle. He's very tough, especially at home, and for a lineup that most;y has never seen him, I make Keuchel a strong favorite to have a shutdown night. The Rox don't exactly crush lefties on the road anyway. Good shot this one is tight and low scoring, and I'll take the game to stay Under.
Twins/Cardinals Under 7.5 -120 (May/Lackey)
Trevor May is coming along nicely for the Twins. I liked him as a prospect and his troubles last season were more inexperience than a lack of talent. May has started to put things together lately and while he's not a future ace, I think he's going to be a solid #2-3 option. John Lackey has been awful on the road, but very good at Busch. I also like Lackey coming off one of the worst starts of his career. The guy remains an absolute bulldog and he ought to rebound here. The Twins have not been good with the bats on the road vs. righties. Cardinals ca blow this up by themselves, but I'll bank on May's recent performances and will look for the game to stay Under.
White Sox/Pirates Under 7 -115 (Rodon/Liriano)
This should be a pitching duel. White Sox are pretty awful vs. lefties and they see a good one here in Francisco Liriano. Liriano has a high ERA at home, but that's pretty misleading. Carlos Rodon walks are going to be an issue, but his stuff is pretty unhittable at times and it's not like the Bucs are a monster against southpaws. Bullpens are both actually pretty fresh even with some innings logged by Pittsburgh over the weekend. Pitching should dominate hitting here and I'll play this Under.
Rockies/Astros Under 7.5 -120 (Bettis/Keuchel)
Astros had two double digit explosions last three days, but with the way surprising Chad Bettis has pitched recently, willing to take my chances that won't happen again tonight. Good luck to the Rockies trying to solve the Dallas Keuchel riddle. He's very tough, especially at home, and for a lineup that most;y has never seen him, I make Keuchel a strong favorite to have a shutdown night. The Rox don't exactly crush lefties on the road anyway. Good shot this one is tight and low scoring, and I'll take the game to stay Under.
Twins/Cardinals Under 7.5 -120 (May/Lackey)
Trevor May is coming along nicely for the Twins. I liked him as a prospect and his troubles last season were more inexperience than a lack of talent. May has started to put things together lately and while he's not a future ace, I think he's going to be a solid #2-3 option. John Lackey has been awful on the road, but very good at Busch. I also like Lackey coming off one of the worst starts of his career. The guy remains an absolute bulldog and he ought to rebound here. The Twins have not been good with the bats on the road vs. righties. Cardinals ca blow this up by themselves, but I'll bank on May's recent performances and will look for the game to stay Under.
DAVE COKIN – MLB
2* White Sox/Pirates Under 7 -115 (Rodon/Liriano)
This should be a pitching duel. White Sox are pretty awful vs. lefties and they see a good one here in Francisco Liriano. Liriano has a high ERA at home, but that’s pretty misleading. Carlos Rodon walks are going to be an issue, but his stuff is pretty unhittable at times and it’s not like the Bucs are a monster against southpaws. Bullpens are both actually pretty fresh even with some innings logged by Pittsburgh over the weekend. Pitching should dominate hitting here and I’ll play this Under.
2* Rockies/Astros Under 7.5 -120 (Bettis/Keuchel)
Astros had two double digit explosions last three days, but with the way surprising Chad Bettis has pitched recently, willing to take my chances that won’t happen again tonight. Good luck to the Rockies trying to solve the Dallas Keuchel riddle. He’s very tough, especially at home, and for a lineup that most;y has never seen him, I make Keuchel a strong favorite to have a shutdown night. The Rox don’t exactly crush lefties on the road anyway. Good shot this one is tight and low scoring, and I’ll take the game to stay Under.
2* Twins/Cardinals Under 7.5 -120 (May/Lackey)
Trevor May is coming along nicely for the Twins. I liked him as a prospect and his troubles last season were more inexperience than a lack of talent. May has started to put things together lately and while he’s not a future ace, I think he’s going to be a solid #2-3 option. John Lackey has been awful on the road, but very good at Busch. I also like Lackey coming off one of the worst starts of his career. The guy remains an absolute bulldog and he ought to rebound here. The Twins have not been good with the bats on the road vs. righties. Cardinals ca blow this up by themselves, but I’ll bank on May’s recent performances and will look for the game to stay Under.
ROYALS (Volquez) @ BREWERS (Lohse)
Bonus Play – Take: ROYALS -118
Kyle Lohse is now 13 starts into his 2015 season and I guess it’s safe to say that it’s been a struggle for the veteran righty. Lohse has really only had two high quality starts, and a couple others that rated as decent. Aside from that, Lohse has been mostly mediocre. His home run rate is the second worst of any starting pitcher. His ERA is the worst among all qualifying pitchers and while there are more revealing stats than ERA, 6.27 is terrible any way you want to break it down.
It’s not as though there are red flags on the charts. Lohse still doesn’t walk many batters, his velocity is pretty much the same, and his K rate is actually up a tick. His hard hit rate hasn’t spiked at all. In fact, if you look at all the numbers, it’s hard to distinguish the 2015 version of Lohse from the one we’ve seen in several prior campaigns. But the results have been pretty horrific and metrics aside, I can guarantee you that opposing hitters are striding to the plate with great confidence against Lohse. Sometimes the mental aspect of the game doesn’t get illustrated by the data.
Edinson Volquez will throw for Kansas City. Volquez has been steady for the Royals. Control is always a concern with this righty, but he’s been good enough for the most part and really impressive at times. Volquez, like all the Kansas City starters, owns a built in advantage heading into each start. He knows he just needs to get six okay innings in and he can then hand things off to that sensational Royals bullpen. Again, a mental part of the equation that doesn’t show up in the stats, but absolutely exists.
The Royals have been a bit unsteady recently. They’re only 6-11 over the last 17 games and they will be short one bat, most likely Kendrys Morales, with no DH available tonight in a National League park. The Brewers have played more respectably since Craig Counsell stepped into the managerial seat and they’re in okay form lately, winning eight of their last 14 outings.
But Lohse is more liability than asset at this juncture and he would not seem to match up especially well with the aggressive Royals. They’re going to arrive at the plate swinging like they usually do and with how hittable Lohse has been, this could be a good night for the Kansas City batters.
The number is reasonable enough here, and in fact it’s very safe to say the Royals will be an attractive public side tonight, perhaps the squarest option on the board when it’s all said and done. But I also think they’re justifiably priced and the matchup being what I think it is here, I’ll side with the Royals to notch the win this evening
2* White Sox/Pirates Under 7 -115 (Rodon/Liriano)
This should be a pitching duel. White Sox are pretty awful vs. lefties and they see a good one here in Francisco Liriano. Liriano has a high ERA at home, but that’s pretty misleading. Carlos Rodon walks are going to be an issue, but his stuff is pretty unhittable at times and it’s not like the Bucs are a monster against southpaws. Bullpens are both actually pretty fresh even with some innings logged by Pittsburgh over the weekend. Pitching should dominate hitting here and I’ll play this Under.
2* Rockies/Astros Under 7.5 -120 (Bettis/Keuchel)
Astros had two double digit explosions last three days, but with the way surprising Chad Bettis has pitched recently, willing to take my chances that won’t happen again tonight. Good luck to the Rockies trying to solve the Dallas Keuchel riddle. He’s very tough, especially at home, and for a lineup that most;y has never seen him, I make Keuchel a strong favorite to have a shutdown night. The Rox don’t exactly crush lefties on the road anyway. Good shot this one is tight and low scoring, and I’ll take the game to stay Under.
2* Twins/Cardinals Under 7.5 -120 (May/Lackey)
Trevor May is coming along nicely for the Twins. I liked him as a prospect and his troubles last season were more inexperience than a lack of talent. May has started to put things together lately and while he’s not a future ace, I think he’s going to be a solid #2-3 option. John Lackey has been awful on the road, but very good at Busch. I also like Lackey coming off one of the worst starts of his career. The guy remains an absolute bulldog and he ought to rebound here. The Twins have not been good with the bats on the road vs. righties. Cardinals ca blow this up by themselves, but I’ll bank on May’s recent performances and will look for the game to stay Under.
ROYALS (Volquez) @ BREWERS (Lohse)
Bonus Play – Take: ROYALS -118
Kyle Lohse is now 13 starts into his 2015 season and I guess it’s safe to say that it’s been a struggle for the veteran righty. Lohse has really only had two high quality starts, and a couple others that rated as decent. Aside from that, Lohse has been mostly mediocre. His home run rate is the second worst of any starting pitcher. His ERA is the worst among all qualifying pitchers and while there are more revealing stats than ERA, 6.27 is terrible any way you want to break it down.
It’s not as though there are red flags on the charts. Lohse still doesn’t walk many batters, his velocity is pretty much the same, and his K rate is actually up a tick. His hard hit rate hasn’t spiked at all. In fact, if you look at all the numbers, it’s hard to distinguish the 2015 version of Lohse from the one we’ve seen in several prior campaigns. But the results have been pretty horrific and metrics aside, I can guarantee you that opposing hitters are striding to the plate with great confidence against Lohse. Sometimes the mental aspect of the game doesn’t get illustrated by the data.
Edinson Volquez will throw for Kansas City. Volquez has been steady for the Royals. Control is always a concern with this righty, but he’s been good enough for the most part and really impressive at times. Volquez, like all the Kansas City starters, owns a built in advantage heading into each start. He knows he just needs to get six okay innings in and he can then hand things off to that sensational Royals bullpen. Again, a mental part of the equation that doesn’t show up in the stats, but absolutely exists.
The Royals have been a bit unsteady recently. They’re only 6-11 over the last 17 games and they will be short one bat, most likely Kendrys Morales, with no DH available tonight in a National League park. The Brewers have played more respectably since Craig Counsell stepped into the managerial seat and they’re in okay form lately, winning eight of their last 14 outings.
But Lohse is more liability than asset at this juncture and he would not seem to match up especially well with the aggressive Royals. They’re going to arrive at the plate swinging like they usually do and with how hittable Lohse has been, this could be a good night for the Kansas City batters.
The number is reasonable enough here, and in fact it’s very safe to say the Royals will be an attractive public side tonight, perhaps the squarest option on the board when it’s all said and done. But I also think they’re justifiably priced and the matchup being what I think it is here, I’ll side with the Royals to notch the win this evening
SHARP MOVES – MLB
Steam Rot#: 929 Team: Seattle/San Francisco – OVER 7
Steam Rot#: 925 Team: Arizona/LA Angels – OVER 7½
Steam Rot#: 923 Team: Minnesota/St. Louis – UNDER 7½
Steam Rot#: 921 Team: Kansas City/Milwaukee – OVER 8
Steam Rot#: 919 Team: Colorado+185
Steam Rot#: 915 Team: Cleveland/Chicago Cubs – OVER 7½
Steam Rot#: 917 Team: LA Dodgers/Texas – OVER 8½
Steam Rot#: 909 Team: Boston-145
Steam Rot#: 909 Team: Atlanta/Boston – UNDER 8½
Steam Rot#: 913 Team: NY Yankees/Miami – UNDER 7
Steam Rot#: 905 Team: Philadelphia/Baltimore – UNDER 8½
Steam Rot#: 901 Team: Pittsburgh-255
Steam Rot#: 905 Team: Baltimore-200
Steam Rot#: 929 Team: Seattle/San Francisco – OVER 7
Steam Rot#: 925 Team: Arizona/LA Angels – OVER 7½
Steam Rot#: 923 Team: Minnesota/St. Louis – UNDER 7½
Steam Rot#: 921 Team: Kansas City/Milwaukee – OVER 8
Steam Rot#: 919 Team: Colorado+185
Steam Rot#: 915 Team: Cleveland/Chicago Cubs – OVER 7½
Steam Rot#: 917 Team: LA Dodgers/Texas – OVER 8½
Steam Rot#: 909 Team: Boston-145
Steam Rot#: 909 Team: Atlanta/Boston – UNDER 8½
Steam Rot#: 913 Team: NY Yankees/Miami – UNDER 7
Steam Rot#: 905 Team: Philadelphia/Baltimore – UNDER 8½
Steam Rot#: 901 Team: Pittsburgh-255
Steam Rot#: 905 Team: Baltimore-200
