Al DeMarco
Monday's Plays
5 Dime play on Phoenix and Los Angeles to go Over the posted price. As I release this selection at 10:30 AM Pacific, the Over/Under is 210 1/2 to 211 here in Vegas and offshore.
5 Dime play on Atlanta and Lowe over New York and Pelfrey. Specitfy both pitchers in this contest, otherwise the play is null and void. As this play is released, I see the Braves are about a -150 favorite.
5 Dime play on Detroit and Porcello over Chicago and Garcia. Again, specify both starters. The Tigers are surprisingoy only -140 to -145. I would have thought they would be in the -175 to -180 range.
ANALYSIS
One key for me when it comes to handicapping baseball is reading every single boxscore on a daily basis and when something stands out, making note of it. In Mike Pelfrey's last start for the Mets against Washington, he needed 119 pitches to get through 5.2 innings. That's was a red flag for a guy battling shoulder fatigue of late and right then I decided to go against him in his next start, which is tonight in Atlanta. The fact that he's 1-2 in his last three starts against the Braves, allowing 23 hits and 12 earned runs, walking nine in 15.1 innings pitched, is just an added bonus.
The Mets, riding so high just a few short weeks ago, are floundering. They just got swept in a four-game set at Florida and have lost 11 of their last 15 overall. On the road they've struggied all season, going 4-12 outside of New York, losing eight of their last nine on the highway. And Atlanta has been a house of horrors for them as they're 4-14 since the start of the 2008 campaign in Georgia with Pelfrey personally going 0-2 in three starts with an 11.30 ERA. Considering his last three starts this season have resulted in a linescore reading 23 hits and 13 earned runs allowed over 17 innings pitched - and factoring in his 119-pitch performance in his last trip to the mound - I'll go against New York tonight. Plus, the Braves are on a 5-1 tear at home, scoring 48 runs in that stretch.
Do you realize the Tigers have taken consecutive home series against the Red Sox (2-1), Yankees (3-1), Twins (2-1) and Angels (3-0) - all playoff teams - to improve to 14-5 on the season at home with 10 wins in their last 13 games in Motown?
One guy who loves the home cooking is Rick Porcello. At Comercia Park he's 3-0 in four starts with a 3.86 ERA. Compare that to his 0-3 record and 9.88 earned run average on the road. Ouch.
In his last start at home Porcello blanked the Yankees over seven innings, allowitng just four hits. If he could hold New York's potent attack in check, he can certainly stop Chicago's impotent line-up.
Yes, Freddie Garcia has some impressive career numbers against Detroit, but the majority of those were compiled long before his career was derailed by shoulder and arm injuries. And yes, he's won his last two starts against the Twins and Royals, but take a look at the linescores for those two games: 19 hits allowed in 13 innings. No surprise considerong he's allowed 56 baserunners in 36 innings this season.
How the Tigers aren't a -185 favorite - or higher - in this spot is a surprise to me.
Both of these teams love to run. Both are rested. And yet this total is sitting at 211.
Yesterday I gave you a Bonus Play winner on the Celtics-Magic Under. These teams aren't Boston and Orlando; they want to get out and run the floor and with Nash and Kobe both rested, that's what they're going to do. And frankly, that's what each has to do to be successful.
Take a look at the regular season match-ups: The first on November 21 resulted in 223 points being scored. The second on December 6 only had 196 total points, but I think that had much to do with the fact the Suns were tired, playing their sixth road game in a 10-day stretch. In a rematch December 28, they combined for 221 points. In the final meeting on March 12, they combined for only 198, but the Suns were out of synch that game, falling behind early by 15 in the first half after being idle for six days. Plus they were minus one of their key bench contributors, Channing Frye, and you see how valuable he's been in the postseason.
Bottom line: When I look at this game I believe the percentages are greater for both teams getting into the 105-110 range than for either to be held under the century mark in scoring. Thus the over is the play as I projected this total to be somewhere in the vicinity of 217, not the 211 or so it actually is priced.
Also, consider that against a slower, plodding team like the Spurs in Round Two, the Suns scored 111, 110, 110 and 107 points in sweeping the series. And in the three of the six games against Portland in Round One they scored 107 points or more, settling for 99 and 100 and two of the others.
