WUNDERDOG SPORTS Bonus Play
MLB Game: New York Mets (951) @ Miami Marlins (952)
Time: Monday 04/27 7:10 PM Eastern
Pick: New York +111 (moneyline)
The Mets are off to a torid start at 14-5 and have already proven they can beat the Marlins, having swept them once already this season. The starting pitching matchup favors Miami, but I don’t think the Marlins have the bats to exploit Gee, and I really like the Mets’ bullpen over Miami’s. The Marlins bullpen has posted a 4.96 ERA at home this season (compared to New York’s 2.02 on the road). Miami is averaging just 3.9 runs per game and .312 OBP in their home gaems this season, and they have gone just 5-10 vs. RHP so far. Dating back to last season, New York is 31-21 on the road in expected close games (line of -125 to +125). And Gee is 25-19 as a road underdog. Take the Mets here.
MLB Game: New York Mets (951) @ Miami Marlins (952)
Time: Monday 04/27 7:10 PM Eastern
Pick: New York +111 (moneyline)
The Mets are off to a torid start at 14-5 and have already proven they can beat the Marlins, having swept them once already this season. The starting pitching matchup favors Miami, but I don’t think the Marlins have the bats to exploit Gee, and I really like the Mets’ bullpen over Miami’s. The Marlins bullpen has posted a 4.96 ERA at home this season (compared to New York’s 2.02 on the road). Miami is averaging just 3.9 runs per game and .312 OBP in their home gaems this season, and they have gone just 5-10 vs. RHP so far. Dating back to last season, New York is 31-21 on the road in expected close games (line of -125 to +125). And Gee is 25-19 as a road underdog. Take the Mets here.
VegasButcher
Texas Rangers -113
Seattle is sending Taijuan Walker to the mound, who is coming off a pretty solid outing, his first ‘good’ start of the year. It wasn’t perfect (he gave up 4 BB’s) but he did register 8 K’s and threw a season-high 102 pitches, after throwing 77 and 76 in the previous two starts. By comparison Gallardo is coming off his worst start, where he allowed 5 runs (3 earned). I expect him to bounce-back while I think Walker comes back down to earth here. Both starters have strong K-rates this season (23% for Gallardo and 21% for Walker) but Walker’s BB-rate of 15% is 3X Gallardo’s 5% mark. In addition, Walker has a 29% LD-rate and a 4.9 SIERA, marks that indicate that teams are hitting him fairly hard so far this season. He’s gotten rocked in his two road starts allowing 14 ER’s in 7.1 innings of work, and now he’s pitching away from home again tonight. Ranges aren’t a great team either but they are at home and have a better starter on the mound. My model has this one at -136 odds. I’ll grab the 20+ cents of value with the home team in this one.
Texas Rangers -113
Seattle is sending Taijuan Walker to the mound, who is coming off a pretty solid outing, his first ‘good’ start of the year. It wasn’t perfect (he gave up 4 BB’s) but he did register 8 K’s and threw a season-high 102 pitches, after throwing 77 and 76 in the previous two starts. By comparison Gallardo is coming off his worst start, where he allowed 5 runs (3 earned). I expect him to bounce-back while I think Walker comes back down to earth here. Both starters have strong K-rates this season (23% for Gallardo and 21% for Walker) but Walker’s BB-rate of 15% is 3X Gallardo’s 5% mark. In addition, Walker has a 29% LD-rate and a 4.9 SIERA, marks that indicate that teams are hitting him fairly hard so far this season. He’s gotten rocked in his two road starts allowing 14 ER’s in 7.1 innings of work, and now he’s pitching away from home again tonight. Ranges aren’t a great team either but they are at home and have a better starter on the mound. My model has this one at -136 odds. I’ll grab the 20+ cents of value with the home team in this one.
