SPORTS WAGERS
San Diego +134 over CHICAGO
Carlos Zambrano is 2-0 in three starts but aside from the W/L record there’s nothing to like about him. The team he pitches for is average at best, the bullpen behind him is one of the weakest in the game and all of Zambrano’s other stats are screaming to stay away. In his three starts covering 18 innings, Zambrano has walked nine and struck out 13. That’s a concerning ratio and so is his groundball/fly-ball ratio of 32%/49%. Zambrano has an ERA of 6.11, a WHIP of 1.58 a BAA of .292 and he’s allowed three bombs already. Carlos Zambrano is not good anymore and he’s very unlikely to get any better. Tim Stauffer went 6-5 with a 1.85 ERA in 82 IP for the Padres last season. Former 1st rounder had huge year in spot starter role. His inflated strand rate helped ERA but xERA confirms he was good. Elite groundball profile last season of 55% has carried over into his three starts this season (54%). Stauffer has a ton of starting pitching upside and could be in the 15 win, 3.50 ERA range. Great price on the much better hurler. Play: San Diego +134 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +118 over BOSTON
The upside that Daisuke Matsuzaka once showed in Japan is as far away as his homeland and the only reason he’s still getting the ball is because the Red Sox are paying him in excess of 10M this season. He only has handful of starts left before the Red Sox admit it was an expensive mistake and move on. Dice K’s decline began three years ago. His velocity is way down, his spring results were awful and his two starts to begin the season have been dreadful. In seven innings, covering those two starts, he’s allowed 14 hits, 10 earned runs, two jacks, he’s walked five and struck out four. He has a BAA of .412, an ERA of 12.86 and a off the charts WHIP of 2.71 and now he’s favored over Ricky Romero. To put this into perspective, if Romero was pitching for Boston and Matsuzaka was throwing for the Blue Jays, Boston would be about an enormous favorite in this game. In 22 innings this season, Romero has walked four and struck out 20. His WHIP of 0.92 and ERA of 1.66 is among the best in baseball. Although it’s early in the year, Romero has posted outstanding April numbers in his two previous years as a starter and all of his skills confirm it’s no fluke. Romero throws strikes, he has an outstanding groundball profile and no matter what the outcome is here, Romero and the Jays offer up huge value against a completely ineffective Dice K.. Play: Toronto +118 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +105 over BALTIMORE
The Twins are in the unfamiliar role of sitting in last place in the AL Central with a 5-10 record. Francisco Liriano is 0-3 with an ERA of 9.42 and when you combine the two, it doesn’t look good on paper but it also provides us with a great opportunity to buy low. Forget Liriano’s 2011 stats. Thus far he’s faced the Yanks, Jays and Royals and that trio ranks among the best in the league in all offensive categories. A combination of poor Twins defense and well placed singles by the Royals resulted in a six-run outburst in the fourth in which none of the hits went past an outfielder. Liriano walked just one batter in that game after walking eight in his first two starts. He’s not getting smacked around, he’s just uncharacteristically walked too many and he’s been very unlucky with a 43% strand rate. Over the last three years, Liriano’s groundball rate, strikeout rate and control have been at elite levels and there’s nothing to suggest that there’s going to be a dramatic drop off this season. Chris Tillman went 2-5 with a 5.87 ERA in 54 IP for the O’s last year. Righties smacked him to the tune of a .940 OPS and things have not improved early on this year. Baltimore's pitching has come back to earth. After giving up only four runs in their first four games, they've given up 61 in the last 10 (including seven straight losses) and they’ll come into this series with a spent bullpen. Play: Minnesota +105 (Risking 2 units). Play: Minnesota +105 (Risking 2 units).
BUFFALO -½ +136 over Philadelphia
These regulation plays in the playoffs are much more appealing than the regular season because teams are not playing for that single point. What we do know is that the Sabres have a big edge in net, they’re at home and the Flyers have a horrible history at this venue, where they have just six wins in the past 24 meetings here. Ryan Miller was not his stellar self in game two but he’s a big bounce-back candidate while the Flyers inconsistent play and goaltending is not. Remember, Philly and Chicago met in last year’s Stanley Cup Final that went well into June. They hit training camp in early September and when you put it all together that’s a ton of hockey in the span of less than a year and it has to take a toll. We’re seeing that with Chicago and the Flyers are not immune. The Sabres have not played their best hockey yet. They won game one and probably should’ve won game two. Now they’ll return home tied 1-1 with a chance to put a stranglehold on the series. Philly laboured down the stretch, laboured in games one and two, they continue to have uncertainty in net and they appear ripe to drop the next pair in upstate New York. Play: Buffalo -½ +136 (Risking 2 units).