Kevin's Pick(s):
A bit of good fortunes yesterday afternoon as the Cardinals added on a few runs in their last at bat to help us cash our run line play. A smaller board here in the MLB today, but I've got one play going.
2 UNIT = New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks - DIAMONDBACKS TO WIN (-127)
Listed Pitchers: Wheeler vs Collmenter
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.57 units)
The Diamondbacks have faced a tough schedule early in the season, as they are coming off 3 straight losses vs the Dodgers (making them 0-5 vs Los Angeles this year). The D'backs are 4-11 on the season, with pitching being their main problems thus far. New York is coming off a 14-2 loss yesterday in Los Angeles, dropping them to 5-7 on the season. The Mets are 29th in the MLB hitting just .207 as a team, and dead last (30th) with a team .610 OPS. Arizona ranks 8th and 15th in those two offensive categories. The Mets will send Zach Wheeler to the mound, as he looks for his first win. Wheeler is 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA with batters hitting .326 against him. Josh Collmenter will make his first start since 2012 for the Diamondbacks. So far this year he has pitched in 4 games in relief and holds a 2.25 ERA, .241 OBA and 1.38 WHIP. His latest relief appearance was 4 innings of work allowing 3 hits and 0 runs against with 4 strikeouts and 1 walk. In his two seasons where he started games in the Majors (2011 and 2012) he had a 3.38 ERA and 3.69 ERA, and last year in 49 relief appearances he had a solid 3.13 ERA. Take note that dating back to last season the Mets are 0-5 in Wheelers last 5 starts. The Diamondbacks are 9-4 in their last 13 home games vs the Mets. I expect a solid start from Collmenter tonight against a Mets team that has been pretty awful at the dish this season. I'll lay the short price on Arizona at home.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds - REDS TO WIN (-120)
Listed Pitchers: Rodriguez vs. Bailey
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.67 units)
The familiar pattern continues, as I flip-flop again and lose the OVER 9 despite a good amount of chances in that ball game. I have been between -2 to +2 units for the first couple of weeks, but surpassing 2 units and beyond before the end of the month is the plan.
Wandy Rodriguez of the Pirates was a pitcher I liked to back the last couple seasons with considerable success. I should say I liked to take him when he was at home, not on the road. His home numbers were certainly acceptable last season with a 2.04 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. Great stuff, but take a look when he heads away from Pittsburgh, his numbers drop significantly to 6.26 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. A 6.26 ERA is bad enough, but a 1.65 WHIP is horrible. That is from a good size sample as well. The Reds' offense has been lackadaisical for the most part thus far, but they erupted yesterday in a 12-4 win. There is plenty of hitters in the lineup, so I expect their offense to start to pick up now. Wandy has been shaky in his first two starts, both against the Cubs, allowing 3 in the first at home and then 4 on the road at Wrigley. A 7.20 ERA on the road and 2.40 WHIP with .444 OBP, yeah, sounds about right for him away. Homer Bailey has also been dreadful, but I like him to turn things around. He currently has a 7.71 ERA after getting grilled against the Cards twice. He's a much better pitcher than that, as his 3.49 ERA from a year ago indicates. His at home ERA was also lower, 3.35. Bailey should get back into a groove, but the wheels are starting to fall off of Wandy. I think the bad Bailey games were more a case of bad starts, Rodriguez on the other hand just doesn't have the stuff he once did. I like the Reds at -120 in this matchup.
Cheers,
Kevin
A bit of good fortunes yesterday afternoon as the Cardinals added on a few runs in their last at bat to help us cash our run line play. A smaller board here in the MLB today, but I've got one play going.
2 UNIT = New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks - DIAMONDBACKS TO WIN (-127)
Listed Pitchers: Wheeler vs Collmenter
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.57 units)
The Diamondbacks have faced a tough schedule early in the season, as they are coming off 3 straight losses vs the Dodgers (making them 0-5 vs Los Angeles this year). The D'backs are 4-11 on the season, with pitching being their main problems thus far. New York is coming off a 14-2 loss yesterday in Los Angeles, dropping them to 5-7 on the season. The Mets are 29th in the MLB hitting just .207 as a team, and dead last (30th) with a team .610 OPS. Arizona ranks 8th and 15th in those two offensive categories. The Mets will send Zach Wheeler to the mound, as he looks for his first win. Wheeler is 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA with batters hitting .326 against him. Josh Collmenter will make his first start since 2012 for the Diamondbacks. So far this year he has pitched in 4 games in relief and holds a 2.25 ERA, .241 OBA and 1.38 WHIP. His latest relief appearance was 4 innings of work allowing 3 hits and 0 runs against with 4 strikeouts and 1 walk. In his two seasons where he started games in the Majors (2011 and 2012) he had a 3.38 ERA and 3.69 ERA, and last year in 49 relief appearances he had a solid 3.13 ERA. Take note that dating back to last season the Mets are 0-5 in Wheelers last 5 starts. The Diamondbacks are 9-4 in their last 13 home games vs the Mets. I expect a solid start from Collmenter tonight against a Mets team that has been pretty awful at the dish this season. I'll lay the short price on Arizona at home.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds - REDS TO WIN (-120)
Listed Pitchers: Rodriguez vs. Bailey
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.67 units)
The familiar pattern continues, as I flip-flop again and lose the OVER 9 despite a good amount of chances in that ball game. I have been between -2 to +2 units for the first couple of weeks, but surpassing 2 units and beyond before the end of the month is the plan.
Wandy Rodriguez of the Pirates was a pitcher I liked to back the last couple seasons with considerable success. I should say I liked to take him when he was at home, not on the road. His home numbers were certainly acceptable last season with a 2.04 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. Great stuff, but take a look when he heads away from Pittsburgh, his numbers drop significantly to 6.26 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. A 6.26 ERA is bad enough, but a 1.65 WHIP is horrible. That is from a good size sample as well. The Reds' offense has been lackadaisical for the most part thus far, but they erupted yesterday in a 12-4 win. There is plenty of hitters in the lineup, so I expect their offense to start to pick up now. Wandy has been shaky in his first two starts, both against the Cubs, allowing 3 in the first at home and then 4 on the road at Wrigley. A 7.20 ERA on the road and 2.40 WHIP with .444 OBP, yeah, sounds about right for him away. Homer Bailey has also been dreadful, but I like him to turn things around. He currently has a 7.71 ERA after getting grilled against the Cards twice. He's a much better pitcher than that, as his 3.49 ERA from a year ago indicates. His at home ERA was also lower, 3.35. Bailey should get back into a groove, but the wheels are starting to fall off of Wandy. I think the bad Bailey games were more a case of bad starts, Rodriguez on the other hand just doesn't have the stuff he once did. I like the Reds at -120 in this matchup.
Cheers,
Kevin
StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets
MLB | TAMPA BAY at BALTIMORE
Play Against – Home teams (BALTIMORE) with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL), after allowing 9 runs or more
178-122 over the last 5 seasons. ( 59.3% | 62.7 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.0 units )
MLB | PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI
PITTSBURGH is 38-22 (+22.2 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: PITTSBURGH (4.6) , OPPONENT (3.9)
MLB | TAMPA BAY at BALTIMORE
Play Against – Home teams (BALTIMORE) with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL), after allowing 9 runs or more
178-122 over the last 5 seasons. ( 59.3% | 62.7 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.0 units )
MLB | PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI
PITTSBURGH is 38-22 (+22.2 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: PITTSBURGH (4.6) , OPPONENT (3.9)
StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets
NBA | OKLAHOMA CITY at NEW ORLEANS
Play Against – Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog
54-23 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.1% | 28.7 units )
12-6 this year. ( 66.7% | 5.4 units )
NBA | MEMPHIS at PHOENIX
Play Against – Any team vs the money line (PHOENIX) double revenge – 2 straight losses vs. opponent, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog
266-101 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.5% | 87.0 units )
16-6 this year. ( 72.7% | -4.4 units )
NBA | OKLAHOMA CITY at NEW ORLEANS
Play On – Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (NEW ORLEANS) after 2 or more consecutive losses, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team
227-138 since 1997. ( 62.2% | 75.2 units )
18-7 this year. ( 72.0% | 10.3 units )
NBA | OKLAHOMA CITY at NEW ORLEANS
Play Against – Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog
54-23 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.1% | 28.7 units )
12-6 this year. ( 66.7% | 5.4 units )
NBA | MEMPHIS at PHOENIX
Play Against – Any team vs the money line (PHOENIX) double revenge – 2 straight losses vs. opponent, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog
266-101 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.5% | 87.0 units )
16-6 this year. ( 72.7% | -4.4 units )
NBA | OKLAHOMA CITY at NEW ORLEANS
Play On – Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (NEW ORLEANS) after 2 or more consecutive losses, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team
227-138 since 1997. ( 62.2% | 75.2 units )
18-7 this year. ( 72.0% | 10.3 units )
Today's NBA Picks
Memphis at Phoenix
The Grizzlies come into their contest with the Suns tonight carrying a 4-1 ATS record in the last 5 meetings between the two teams. Memphis is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Grizzlies favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
Memphis at Phoenix
The Grizzlies come into their contest with the Suns tonight carrying a 4-1 ATS record in the last 5 meetings between the two teams. Memphis is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Grizzlies favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
| MONDAY, APRIL 14 Time Posted: 11:00 a.m. EST |
| Game 501-502: Boston at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 113.029; Philadelphia 116.482 Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 206 Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 3 1/2; 212 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3 1/2); Under |
| Game 503-504: Miami at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 123.848; Washington 120.659 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 3; 199 Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 3 1/2; 191 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3 1/2); Over |
| Game 505-506: Milwaukee at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 108.987; Toronto 124.806 Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 16; 209 Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 11; 204 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-11); Over |
| Game 507-508: Charlotte at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 115.716; Atlanta 116.502 Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 203 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 3 1/2; 198 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3 1/2); Over |
| Game 509-510: Oklahoma City at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 115.489; New Orleans 114.212 Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1 1/2; 200 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 203 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+7 1/2); Under |
| Game 511-512: San Antonio at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 122.857; Houston 127.333 Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 4 1/2; 209 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 6; 212 Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+6); Under |
| Game 513-514: Orlando at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 112.419; Chicago 130.517 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 18; 190 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 12; 184 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-12); Over |
| Game 515-516: LA Lakers at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 102.644; Utah 116.481 Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 14; 208 Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 5 1/2; 211 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Utah (-5 1/2); Under |
| Game 517-518: Memphis at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 126.135; Phoenix 125.173 Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 1; 204 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3 1/2; 196 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+3 1/2); Over |
| Game 519-520: Minnesota at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 119.508; Golden State 123.200 Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 3 1/2; 205 Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 7 1/2; 208 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+7 1/2); Under |
