Service Plays Monday 3/7/11

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Write-Up


Monday, March 7

Hot Teams
-- Orlando won four of its last five games. Portland won its last five road games (4-0-1 vs spread).
-- Knicks won three of their last four home games.
-- Bulls won/covered nine of their last eleven games. Hornets won last two games, allowing 81-91 points, but Paul got a concussion last night and will miss this game.
-- Mavericks won 18 of their last 20 games.
-- Oklahoma City won five of its last seven games. Grizzlies won eight of last 11 games (7-2 vs spread last nine).
-- Rockets won their last seven games (6-1 vs spread).

Cold Teams
-- Bobcats lost last four games, by 14-40-8-24 points; hosts covered six of their last seven games. Clippers lost five of last six games.
-- Jazz lost eight of its last ten games.
-- Minnesota lost 10 of its last 12 games.
-- Sacramento lost seven of its last nine games- they're 7-5-1 vs spread in last 13 games as a home dog.

Totals
-- Last four Charlotte games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Orlando games stayed under total.
-- Over is 7-4-1 in New York's last dozen home games.
-- Last six Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 9-1-1 in last eleven Dallas games.
-- Four of last five Memphis games went over the total.
-- Over is 12-2 in Sacramento's last fourteen games.

Back-to-Back
-- Knicks are 9-2-2 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Bulls are 9-6 vs spread if they played night before, 9-6, 5-3 at home. New Orleans is 5-8 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Dallas is 7-3 vs spread on road if it played night before. Oklahoma City is 6-3 vs spread when it played night before.
-- Memphis is 13-3-1 vs spread if it played night before.
 

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NBA Dunkel


Houston at Sacramento
The Rockets look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games as a road favorite from 1 to 4 1/2 points. Houston is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, MARCH 7

Game 501-502: LA Clippers at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 113.481; Charlotte 111.957
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 1 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 1 1/2; 189 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+1 1/2); Under

Game 503-504: Portland at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 118.227; Orlando 126.991
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 9; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 2 1/2; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-2 1/2); Over

Game 505-506: Utah at New York (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 116.202; New York 117.708
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 1 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 507-508: New Orleans at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 113.037; Chicago 128.301
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 15 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 509-510: Dallas at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 123.977; Minnesota 113.344
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 10 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 6 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-6 1/2); Under

Game 511-512: Oklahoma City at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 121.395; Memphis 121.473
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 2; 203
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+2); Over

Game 513-514: Houston at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 120.296; Sacramento 112.382
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 8; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 4; 216 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4); Under
 
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Chris Jordan 200* Chicago Bulls -8. (This is for the winning week... something he hasnt had since before the super bowl). -150 for week.
 

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OffshoreInsiders Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a winner Monday is on the Portland Trail Blazers (+2) at Orlando.

This may be the simplest write-up that I have ever had, truly. The Trailblazers aren't great at all but with Dwight Howard out suspended who on the Magic has any chance of slowing down LaMarcus Aldridge? Orlando is an extremely small team that has Howard in the paint and pretty much nothing else. They made the flurry of trades a few months ago after that losing streak and really became a ton smaller limiting themselves in a major way if anything ever happened to Howard.

Well it now happened as the big man is out suspended for accumulating all of the technical fouls.

Orlando does have a ton of guys that are somewhat quick and can shoot in Arenas, Richardson, Turkoglu, Redick and Anderson but the deficiency in the paint is just beyond belief and would rival Gulliver against the Liliputians or whoever he was against. If I was smart enough to know that I probably wouldn't be doing this.

Plus Portland has really manned up through all of the injuries and is a team that has to be taken seriously by all right now. The Blazers have won two in a row and 9 of their last 12 games to get to the current 35-27 mark.

Stan Van Gundy will have no choice but to go small and that will mean a lot of long range shooting for the home Magic. If they can consistently knock down those three's then all I can do is tip my cap. But the advantage with a guy that has been blowing up in Aldridge tonight in the middle is just much too good to overlook.

Aldridge is a superstar, Brandon Roy is still somewhat around, Andre Miller is a bit rejuvenated and after 48 minutes I will gladly fade the well undersized Magic without their star in Howard.

Top expert pick on this game: Portland from the real Matt Rivers

Senior Writer Vegas Matty previews previews the Portland Trail Blazers at Orlando Magic from an NBA spread standpoint.

The Orlando Magic (40-23) will again get to find out what life is like without their NBA MVP candidate on Monday when they host the Portland Trail Blazers (35-27). The Magic (-3) will not have All-Star center Dwight Howard in the lineup due to a one-game suspension he received after picking up his 16th technical foul of the season on Friday in an 89-81 home loss to Chicago.

Howard scored a team-high 20 points and grabbed a team-high 10 rebounds against the Bulls, who outrebounded Orlando by a 50-30 margin. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak for the Magic that included key victories against Miami (99-96) and New York (116-110). The team split two games earlier this season against Detroit and Milwaukee that Howard missed with a stomach virus, but those two teams combined have just 11 more wins than the Trail Blazers.

Meanwhile, Portland has won consecutive games after losing two in a row and begins a four-game road trip in Orlando. The Trail Blazers have won their last five road games – going 4-0-1 against the spread – and are coming off a 93-69 rout of Charlotte at home on Saturday, limiting the Bobcats to 1 of 10 shooting from behind the 3-point arc. LaMarcus Aldridge also continued his strong play despite being snubbed from the All-Star Game, scoring a game-high 26 points in addition to totaling seven rebounds.

Aldridge has scored 20 points or more in 10 of the team’s last 12 games, averaging nearly 27 points per game during that stretch. He figures to be the biggest beneficiary of Howard’s absences after making just 5 of 15 shots and scoring 14 points in a 97-83 home win against the Magic in their only regular-season meeting back on December 9. Howard enjoyed a monster game of 39 points and 15 rebounds in that game, but the Blazers still outscored Orlando in the paint 50-30 and had a 10-0 edge in fast-break points.

The UNDER has cashed in three of Portland’s last four games along with the last three meetings with the Magic, who have also seen the UNDER go 11-2 in their past 13 games overall. The Trail Blazers have won and covered each of the last two meetings as home underdogs, and the home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the past 11 games between the teams. Portland has lost in four of its last five trips to Orlando.
 
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SPORTS WAGERS

TAMPA BAY -½ +142 over WASHINGTON

The Caps won again yesterday to stretch their winning streak to four and in the process they leapfrogged over the Bolts for first place. They Lightning can take back first place with a win here but let’s get back to the Caps. They beat Florida yesterday in OT and were badly outplayed in the first and third periods. Washington’s previous three wins were over the Islanders twice and Blue Notes once, all by a single goal. Against the Islanders they trailed 2-0 in the first game and they trailed 1-0 in the second game with under a minute to go. The Caps have found ways to escape by the hair on their chinny-chin chins against three teams that are booking tee-off times in April and two of those teams, the Panthers and Blue Notes are reeling. Now they’ll play a real team that has dropped three in a row but completely dominated the Habs on Saturday. In fact, the Bolts last five games have come against the Canadiens, Bruins, Devils twice and the Rangers. So, while the Caps were barely squeaking by against a bunch of also rans, the Lightning was playing four of the hottest teams in the NHL. Once again the Caps are getting way too much credit and as long as they continue to be overvalued we’ll keep wagering against them and make no exception here. Play: Tampa Bay -½ +142 (Risking 2 units).
 
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Randy Bruce
of bookie assassin

NCAA BB:
10 dimes Oakland -3.5
10 dimes Gonzaga -1.5
10 dimes Oral Roberts -1.5


NBA:
10 dimes Dallas Mavericks -7
 
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GC NBA System Play

Monday NBA 100% Non Conference Total of the Month with system that beats the line by 16 points + 98% System Side and 20-0 NCAAB Conference Tourney Angle. NCAAB on 15-5 run and NBA 17 Games over .500. Bonus Play and radio show info below

On Monday the NBA Free system play is on the Sacramento Kings. Game 514 at 10:00 eastern. The Kings fit a solid home dog system here tonight. What we want to do is play on home dogs of 4.5 or less with 1 or more day of rest with a total of 190 or higher and scored 100 or more as a road dog vs an opponent that scored 110 or more as a home favorite. Home dogs in this system actually win the game outright 14 of 18 times and cover to a 15-3 mark. Houston is just 4-9 off a win of 10 or more points. Look for the Kings to ground the Rockets. On Monday I have the NBA Non Conference Total of the Month with a 100% Totals system that beats the line by 16 points + 98% NBA System side and an NCAAB Conference Tournament Pure Power 20-0 Angle. Jump on and Cash Big tonight. NCABB On a 15-5 run after Cashing Florida St and NBA 17 Games over winning with Milwaukee. On Monday night I will have an additional Bonus Play on the weekly sports talk radio show at 8:05 eastern. Listen online at 88.9 wsia.fm. For the Bonus Play take the Sacramento Kings. GC
 

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