NCAAB
Write-Up
Monday, March 21
Missouri State won seven of its last 10 road games; four of their last five games stayed under total. Bears are 3-2 as an underdog but are dog for first time in over a month. Miami covered three of last four as favorite, but hasn't won consecutive games since early February. ACC favorites of 8 or less points at home are 6-10 vs spread. MVC road underdogs of 5 or less points are 7-8.
New Mexico won five of last six games, with four of last five staying under total; Lobos are without PG Gary- they're 3-2 in last five on road, including a win at BYU. Alabama hasn't lost at home this year- they are 10-1 vs spread in last 11 home games. MWC road underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-6 vs spread. SEC home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-6.
Oklahoma State lost its last nine true road games- their last six games overall stayed under total. Cowboys are 3-6 vs spread in last nine games as an underdog. Washington State lost by 5 at home to Kansas State in its only game vs Pac-10 foe. Seven of last nine Wazzu games went over the total. Big 12 single digit road underdogs are 8-13 vs spread. Pac-10 home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-5.
Rhode Island is 5-3 in its last eight road games, including winning by 4 at Richmond; five of last seven URI games went over total. Central Florida is 2-11-1 vs spread in its last 14 games as a favorite- after starting year 14-0, Knights are now 20-11. A-14 road underdogs of 7 or less points are 15-13 vs spread. C-USA home favorites of 7 or less points are 4-8.
Creighton (-12) beat Samford of SoCon 58-40 in its only game against Southern Conference foe this season; Bluejays covered their last five as a favorite- four of their last five games stayed under. Davidson won five of last six games; they're 5-5 this season as a dog. MVC home favorites of less than 8 points are 11-8 vs spread. SoCon single digit road underdogs are 14-6.
Evansville lost last five games away from home by 6-14-25-18-2 points; Purple Aces covered six of last nine games as an underdog. Boise State lost by 3 at Drake in December, its only game vs MVC foe; Broncos are 9-1 in last ten games, losing only by 8 to Utah State in WAC final. WAC single digit home favorites are 14-8 vs spread. MVC single digit road underdogs are 12-14.
Duquesne's 87-76 win at Montana last week was their second win in last seven games; Dukes lost four of last six road games. Well-coached Ducks will be prepared against Dukes' pressure- they split with Washington team that plays lot like Duquesne, only with better athletes. Pac-10 teams are an abysmal 4-16 vs spread this season in non-league games where spread is 3 or less points; A-14 teams are 18-18.
Northern Iowa had lost seven of eight games before pounding Rider by 34 (was 47-20 at half); Panthers covered two of last seven games when favored. MVC home favorites of less than 8 points are 11-8 vs spread. SMU blew 14-point halftime lead Saturday but nipped Jacksonville by a point, now has quick turnaround to road game here. C-USA road dogs of less than 8 points are 13-10.
Write-Up
Monday, March 21
Missouri State won seven of its last 10 road games; four of their last five games stayed under total. Bears are 3-2 as an underdog but are dog for first time in over a month. Miami covered three of last four as favorite, but hasn't won consecutive games since early February. ACC favorites of 8 or less points at home are 6-10 vs spread. MVC road underdogs of 5 or less points are 7-8.
New Mexico won five of last six games, with four of last five staying under total; Lobos are without PG Gary- they're 3-2 in last five on road, including a win at BYU. Alabama hasn't lost at home this year- they are 10-1 vs spread in last 11 home games. MWC road underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-6 vs spread. SEC home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-6.
Oklahoma State lost its last nine true road games- their last six games overall stayed under total. Cowboys are 3-6 vs spread in last nine games as an underdog. Washington State lost by 5 at home to Kansas State in its only game vs Pac-10 foe. Seven of last nine Wazzu games went over the total. Big 12 single digit road underdogs are 8-13 vs spread. Pac-10 home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-5.
Rhode Island is 5-3 in its last eight road games, including winning by 4 at Richmond; five of last seven URI games went over total. Central Florida is 2-11-1 vs spread in its last 14 games as a favorite- after starting year 14-0, Knights are now 20-11. A-14 road underdogs of 7 or less points are 15-13 vs spread. C-USA home favorites of 7 or less points are 4-8.
Creighton (-12) beat Samford of SoCon 58-40 in its only game against Southern Conference foe this season; Bluejays covered their last five as a favorite- four of their last five games stayed under. Davidson won five of last six games; they're 5-5 this season as a dog. MVC home favorites of less than 8 points are 11-8 vs spread. SoCon single digit road underdogs are 14-6.
Evansville lost last five games away from home by 6-14-25-18-2 points; Purple Aces covered six of last nine games as an underdog. Boise State lost by 3 at Drake in December, its only game vs MVC foe; Broncos are 9-1 in last ten games, losing only by 8 to Utah State in WAC final. WAC single digit home favorites are 14-8 vs spread. MVC single digit road underdogs are 12-14.
Duquesne's 87-76 win at Montana last week was their second win in last seven games; Dukes lost four of last six road games. Well-coached Ducks will be prepared against Dukes' pressure- they split with Washington team that plays lot like Duquesne, only with better athletes. Pac-10 teams are an abysmal 4-16 vs spread this season in non-league games where spread is 3 or less points; A-14 teams are 18-18.
Northern Iowa had lost seven of eight games before pounding Rider by 34 (was 47-20 at half); Panthers covered two of last seven games when favored. MVC home favorites of less than 8 points are 11-8 vs spread. SMU blew 14-point halftime lead Saturday but nipped Jacksonville by a point, now has quick turnaround to road game here. C-USA road dogs of less than 8 points are 13-10.
NBA
Write-Up
Monday, March 21
Hot Teams
-- Orlando won three of last four games, but covered one of last eight.
-- Grizzlies won eight of their last ten home games.
-- Bulls won eight of their last nine games (7-1-1 vs spread).
-- Spurs won seven of their last nine games.
-- Denver won its last six home games, covered its last five.
Cold Teams
-- New Jersey lost its last three games, by 11-25-6 points.
-- Pacers lost seven of their last eight games (2-6 vs spread).
-- Celtics lost three of their last four road games. New York lost five of its last six games.
-- Cavaliers lost six of their last seven games (2-5 vs spread).
-- Kings lost eight of last ten road games (4-6 vs spread).
-- Warriors lost last four games, by 9-6-11-28 points.
-- Raptors did win last two games, but covered twice in their last 11 road games.
Totals
-- Under is 5-2 in Indiana's last seven games.
-- Last four Cleveland games stayed under the total.
-- Last six Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 7-2 in last nine Memphis games.
-- Under is 10-3 in Chicago's last thirteen games. Eight of Kings' last ten games went over.
-- Under is 4-1 in Golden State's last five road games. Over is 7-3 in last ten San Antonio games.
-- Under is 8-2 in Denver's last ten games.
Back-to-Back
-- Nets are 6-5 vs spread if they lost the night before.
-- Knicks are 4-1-1 vs spread at home if they played night before.
-- Utah is 6-10 vs spread if it played the night before.
-- Kings are 8-5-1 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Warriors are 4-1 vs spread on road if they lost the night before.
-- Toronto is 7-4 vs spread on road if it played night before.
Write-Up
Monday, March 21
Hot Teams
-- Orlando won three of last four games, but covered one of last eight.
-- Grizzlies won eight of their last ten home games.
-- Bulls won eight of their last nine games (7-1-1 vs spread).
-- Spurs won seven of their last nine games.
-- Denver won its last six home games, covered its last five.
Cold Teams
-- New Jersey lost its last three games, by 11-25-6 points.
-- Pacers lost seven of their last eight games (2-6 vs spread).
-- Celtics lost three of their last four road games. New York lost five of its last six games.
-- Cavaliers lost six of their last seven games (2-5 vs spread).
-- Kings lost eight of last ten road games (4-6 vs spread).
-- Warriors lost last four games, by 9-6-11-28 points.
-- Raptors did win last two games, but covered twice in their last 11 road games.
Totals
-- Under is 5-2 in Indiana's last seven games.
-- Last four Cleveland games stayed under the total.
-- Last six Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 7-2 in last nine Memphis games.
-- Under is 10-3 in Chicago's last thirteen games. Eight of Kings' last ten games went over.
-- Under is 4-1 in Golden State's last five road games. Over is 7-3 in last ten San Antonio games.
-- Under is 8-2 in Denver's last ten games.
Back-to-Back
-- Nets are 6-5 vs spread if they lost the night before.
-- Knicks are 4-1-1 vs spread at home if they played night before.
-- Utah is 6-10 vs spread if it played the night before.
-- Kings are 8-5-1 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Warriors are 4-1 vs spread on road if they lost the night before.
-- Toronto is 7-4 vs spread on road if it played night before.
NHL
Write-Up
Monday, March 21
Hot Teams
-- Red Wings won four of their last five games. Pittsburgh won four of its last six games.
Cold Teams
-- Flames lost four of their last five games. Los Angeles lost its last two games, scoring one goal.
Totals
-- Under is 9-3 in Detroit's last dozen games.
-- Over is 8-1-1 in Calgary's last ten games.
Back-to-Back
-- Penguins are 7-3 on road if they played the night before.
-- Calgary is 3-8 on the road if it played the night before.
Series records
-- Home side won both Detroit-Pittsburgh games last season.
-- Flames are 14-4 in last 18 games against Los Angeles, but lost last two games against the Kings.
Write-Up
Monday, March 21
Hot Teams
-- Red Wings won four of their last five games. Pittsburgh won four of its last six games.
Cold Teams
-- Flames lost four of their last five games. Los Angeles lost its last two games, scoring one goal.
Totals
-- Under is 9-3 in Detroit's last dozen games.
-- Over is 8-1-1 in Calgary's last ten games.
Back-to-Back
-- Penguins are 7-3 on road if they played the night before.
-- Calgary is 3-8 on the road if it played the night before.
Series records
-- Home side won both Detroit-Pittsburgh games last season.
-- Flames are 14-4 in last 18 games against Los Angeles, but lost last two games against the Kings.
SPORTS WAGERS
MIAMI –4½ over Missouri St.
Missouri State was favored to win the Missouri Valley Conference once the conference tournament began but bowed out to the Sycamores right away and had to settle for this instead of an automatic bid to the big stage. That had to be disappointing and with almost a week off for it all to sink in the Bears could be in for a long night here. Missouri State’s best win this season came against, well, nobody. They didn’t beat a single tournament team (other than the Sycamores) and that’s the price you play when you schedule your non-conference games against nothing but cream puffs. The Bears had one of the easiest schedules in the country and now they’re going to Miami to face a Hurricanes team that went 13-4 at home. Miami never really had a chance to make the Big Dance so there is no disappointment of not making it. However, they had a lot of nice wins this season and a whole lot of close losses. Three of the teams that made it to the Sweet Sixteen, North Carolina, Duke and Florida St, the Canes faced twice each. They lost to the Tar Heels by two and three points respectively. Against the best defense in the country, the Seminoles, Miami lost by two points and six points. Against Duke they lost by nine and 10 points. They beat Va Tech, they beat bubble team Boston College twice, they beat Maryland by 14, they beat West Virginia and Akron and in the first round of this event they beat Florida Atlantic by 23. The Bears of Missouri State are likely in for a similar pounding. Play: Miami –4½ (Risking 2 units).
Duquesne +107 over OREGON
The Dukes have been solid on the road all season long with an 8-6 record and are coming off a win in Montana in the opening game of the CBI. This is a pretty decent team that played in the A-10 and that had a 16-5 record at one point. They hit a snag late in the season that ultimately prevented them from going to the Dance but they have a good résumé. Four of Duquesne’s first five losses were to Pittsburgh, Penn State, West Virginia and George Mason, all March Madness qualifiers. They also played other qualifiers, Richmond, Xavier and Temple and didn’t look a bit out of place against any of the aforementioned qualifiers, losing to GMU in double OT, to WVU by three, to Penn State by four and Pitt by 14. The Dukes had four players that scored in double digits in its last game and were first in the country in assists per game. The Ducks went just 12-9 at home. They’re really a very beatable team that ranked 270th in the country with a FG% of just .419 and ranked 380th in the country in rebounding. There’s noting in the Ducks résumé that suggests they can beat the Dukes and if the visitor is ready to play they’re very likely going to beat this host. Play: Duquesne +107 (Risking 2 units).
MIAMI –4½ over Missouri St.
Missouri State was favored to win the Missouri Valley Conference once the conference tournament began but bowed out to the Sycamores right away and had to settle for this instead of an automatic bid to the big stage. That had to be disappointing and with almost a week off for it all to sink in the Bears could be in for a long night here. Missouri State’s best win this season came against, well, nobody. They didn’t beat a single tournament team (other than the Sycamores) and that’s the price you play when you schedule your non-conference games against nothing but cream puffs. The Bears had one of the easiest schedules in the country and now they’re going to Miami to face a Hurricanes team that went 13-4 at home. Miami never really had a chance to make the Big Dance so there is no disappointment of not making it. However, they had a lot of nice wins this season and a whole lot of close losses. Three of the teams that made it to the Sweet Sixteen, North Carolina, Duke and Florida St, the Canes faced twice each. They lost to the Tar Heels by two and three points respectively. Against the best defense in the country, the Seminoles, Miami lost by two points and six points. Against Duke they lost by nine and 10 points. They beat Va Tech, they beat bubble team Boston College twice, they beat Maryland by 14, they beat West Virginia and Akron and in the first round of this event they beat Florida Atlantic by 23. The Bears of Missouri State are likely in for a similar pounding. Play: Miami –4½ (Risking 2 units).
Duquesne +107 over OREGON
The Dukes have been solid on the road all season long with an 8-6 record and are coming off a win in Montana in the opening game of the CBI. This is a pretty decent team that played in the A-10 and that had a 16-5 record at one point. They hit a snag late in the season that ultimately prevented them from going to the Dance but they have a good résumé. Four of Duquesne’s first five losses were to Pittsburgh, Penn State, West Virginia and George Mason, all March Madness qualifiers. They also played other qualifiers, Richmond, Xavier and Temple and didn’t look a bit out of place against any of the aforementioned qualifiers, losing to GMU in double OT, to WVU by three, to Penn State by four and Pitt by 14. The Dukes had four players that scored in double digits in its last game and were first in the country in assists per game. The Ducks went just 12-9 at home. They’re really a very beatable team that ranked 270th in the country with a FG% of just .419 and ranked 380th in the country in rebounding. There’s noting in the Ducks résumé that suggests they can beat the Dukes and if the visitor is ready to play they’re very likely going to beat this host. Play: Duquesne +107 (Risking 2 units).
Gold Sheet
Missouri State 66 - MIAMI-FLORIDA 64—We’re not convinced that one of
Miami’s better efforts of the season (last Wednesday’s 85-62 romp over local
foe Florida Atlantic) should be considered as any sort of a late-season “buy”
signal for the Canes, who were notorious as a low-variance team all campaign
and had covered just 5 of 15 chances as a favorite before that “statement” win
over the nearby, but outgunned, Owls. ACC insiders, however, suspect that
Miami might have a more difficult time summoning that kind of effort and
uncovering the resultant “edge” against a far-away Missouri Valley rep.
It’s worth noting that regional observers took note of Missouri State’s rather
dominating performance in the NIT opener vs. Murray State, showing no ill
effects of being bypassed by the NCAA Selection Committee. Sources say that
HC Cuonzo Martin has convinced his veteran Bears (with four senior starters)
to embrace this opportunity in the NIT, which is not always the case with squads
feeling jilted by the NCAA. Although Miami presents a different obstacle than
Murray State, with mountainous 6-10, 300-lb. “Dancing Bear” Reggie Johnson
on the blocks, the erratic Cane Gs do not always provide proper service, prone
to over-dribbling and poor decisions, reflected in very subpar TO margin
numbers (-1.85 pg; only lowly Wake Forest was worse in the ACC). And if
Johnson doesn’t get enough touches, the chances are reduced that Miami can
get 6-9, 260-lb. Mizzou State C Will Creekmore into foul trouble and expose the
Bears’ lack of frontline depth. What Mizzou State does best (limit turnovers and
create matchup problems with lengthy wings Kyle Weems & Jermaine Mallett)
figures to cause the Canes some discomfort, and a mild upset vs. a flawed
Miami side would come as no surprise.
★★★ALABAMA 71 - New Mexico 57—There’s a much-discussed dynamic
in the NIT that the tournament schedules certain teams at home for a reason.
First, a guarantee of a good crowd; second, the chance for a “name entry” with
a substantial following to make it to the Final Four at Madison Square Garden.
Although Alabama qualifies on both counts, we don’t need to consider any
potentially nefarious scenarios that might make it easier for the host Crimson
Tide to reach the Garden next week. SEC West-winning Bama has done just
fine on its own in Tuscaloosa this season, winning straight up in all 17 of its
home games and covering 11 of 13 on the line at the brightly-decorated
Coleman Coliseum, across from the Bear Bryant Museum and not far from Big
John Bishop’s original Dreamland BBQ, just across I-20.
Making the task for visiting New Mexico even more daunting is the absence
of floor-leader PG Dairese Gary (top scorer at 14.1 ppg), who tore his ACL in the
recent MWC Tourney semifinals. Although the Lobos survived his absence in
the first round at The Pit vs. UTEP (where, to no surprise, the Miners didn’t seem
to get much help from the officials), dealing with the Tide’s accomplished
backcourt stoppers Charvez Davis & Senario Hillman has become an even
more difficult assignment. And though Bama’s Gs are not terribly reliable longrange
shooters (Tide just 32% beyond the arc), the consistency of frontliners
JaMychal Green (15.8 ppg; held to single digits just once all year) and Tony
Mitchell (15.3 ppg) provide unique dual go-to threats for the Tide on the blocks.
Their active presence in the paint also figures to neutralize top UNM rebounder
F Drew Gordon, with the Lobos unlikely to get many second-chance baskets
that will be required if Steve Alford’s team is serious about an upset bid.
WASHINGTON STATE 67 - Oklahoma State 66—Credit Washington State
for putting many of its late-season distractions behind it (as well as the
disappointment of missing out on the NCAA Tournament) when taking care of
business in the opening round last week vs. Long Beach State. But, as is
usually the case in each succeeding round of a knockout format tournament like
the NIT, things are going to get tougher as the process continues. And the
Cougs (especially high-scoring G Klay Thompson) are going to find an
established Big XII entry such as Oklahoma State to be a far more difficult
defensive challenge than the smaller Big West 49ers.
Indeed, the Cowboys seem to be somewhat rejuvenated in recent weeks
after their NCAA at-large hopes disappeared during a particularly barren stretch
of results between mid-January and mid-February. Ever since a Feb. 21 loss at
Kansas, however, OSU hasn’t allowed more than 68 points, including a 1-point
loss in a Big XII Tourney rematch vs. the Jayhawks and a dominant 71-54 win
over upset du jour pick Harvard in first-round NIT action. And Wazzu has not
been used to dealing with the sort of physicality in the finesse-oriented Pac-10
as they’ll see from the Cowboys and their pair of punishing 255-lb.
heavyweights, Marshall Moses and Matt Pilgrim. How tightly the refs blow their
whistles (and keep the Cowboys off the high-scoring Thompson, at 22.2 ppg) is
hard to predict, but OSU’s defensive edge, recent surge, and the ability of
firebrand 5-9 PG Keiton Page to bounce through traffic and create opportunities
on the attack end are more-predictable elements that support the OSU
Missouri State 66 - MIAMI-FLORIDA 64—We’re not convinced that one of
Miami’s better efforts of the season (last Wednesday’s 85-62 romp over local
foe Florida Atlantic) should be considered as any sort of a late-season “buy”
signal for the Canes, who were notorious as a low-variance team all campaign
and had covered just 5 of 15 chances as a favorite before that “statement” win
over the nearby, but outgunned, Owls. ACC insiders, however, suspect that
Miami might have a more difficult time summoning that kind of effort and
uncovering the resultant “edge” against a far-away Missouri Valley rep.
It’s worth noting that regional observers took note of Missouri State’s rather
dominating performance in the NIT opener vs. Murray State, showing no ill
effects of being bypassed by the NCAA Selection Committee. Sources say that
HC Cuonzo Martin has convinced his veteran Bears (with four senior starters)
to embrace this opportunity in the NIT, which is not always the case with squads
feeling jilted by the NCAA. Although Miami presents a different obstacle than
Murray State, with mountainous 6-10, 300-lb. “Dancing Bear” Reggie Johnson
on the blocks, the erratic Cane Gs do not always provide proper service, prone
to over-dribbling and poor decisions, reflected in very subpar TO margin
numbers (-1.85 pg; only lowly Wake Forest was worse in the ACC). And if
Johnson doesn’t get enough touches, the chances are reduced that Miami can
get 6-9, 260-lb. Mizzou State C Will Creekmore into foul trouble and expose the
Bears’ lack of frontline depth. What Mizzou State does best (limit turnovers and
create matchup problems with lengthy wings Kyle Weems & Jermaine Mallett)
figures to cause the Canes some discomfort, and a mild upset vs. a flawed
Miami side would come as no surprise.
★★★ALABAMA 71 - New Mexico 57—There’s a much-discussed dynamic
in the NIT that the tournament schedules certain teams at home for a reason.
First, a guarantee of a good crowd; second, the chance for a “name entry” with
a substantial following to make it to the Final Four at Madison Square Garden.
Although Alabama qualifies on both counts, we don’t need to consider any
potentially nefarious scenarios that might make it easier for the host Crimson
Tide to reach the Garden next week. SEC West-winning Bama has done just
fine on its own in Tuscaloosa this season, winning straight up in all 17 of its
home games and covering 11 of 13 on the line at the brightly-decorated
Coleman Coliseum, across from the Bear Bryant Museum and not far from Big
John Bishop’s original Dreamland BBQ, just across I-20.
Making the task for visiting New Mexico even more daunting is the absence
of floor-leader PG Dairese Gary (top scorer at 14.1 ppg), who tore his ACL in the
recent MWC Tourney semifinals. Although the Lobos survived his absence in
the first round at The Pit vs. UTEP (where, to no surprise, the Miners didn’t seem
to get much help from the officials), dealing with the Tide’s accomplished
backcourt stoppers Charvez Davis & Senario Hillman has become an even
more difficult assignment. And though Bama’s Gs are not terribly reliable longrange
shooters (Tide just 32% beyond the arc), the consistency of frontliners
JaMychal Green (15.8 ppg; held to single digits just once all year) and Tony
Mitchell (15.3 ppg) provide unique dual go-to threats for the Tide on the blocks.
Their active presence in the paint also figures to neutralize top UNM rebounder
F Drew Gordon, with the Lobos unlikely to get many second-chance baskets
that will be required if Steve Alford’s team is serious about an upset bid.
WASHINGTON STATE 67 - Oklahoma State 66—Credit Washington State
for putting many of its late-season distractions behind it (as well as the
disappointment of missing out on the NCAA Tournament) when taking care of
business in the opening round last week vs. Long Beach State. But, as is
usually the case in each succeeding round of a knockout format tournament like
the NIT, things are going to get tougher as the process continues. And the
Cougs (especially high-scoring G Klay Thompson) are going to find an
established Big XII entry such as Oklahoma State to be a far more difficult
defensive challenge than the smaller Big West 49ers.
Indeed, the Cowboys seem to be somewhat rejuvenated in recent weeks
after their NCAA at-large hopes disappeared during a particularly barren stretch
of results between mid-January and mid-February. Ever since a Feb. 21 loss at
Kansas, however, OSU hasn’t allowed more than 68 points, including a 1-point
loss in a Big XII Tourney rematch vs. the Jayhawks and a dominant 71-54 win
over upset du jour pick Harvard in first-round NIT action. And Wazzu has not
been used to dealing with the sort of physicality in the finesse-oriented Pac-10
as they’ll see from the Cowboys and their pair of punishing 255-lb.
heavyweights, Marshall Moses and Matt Pilgrim. How tightly the refs blow their
whistles (and keep the Cowboys off the high-scoring Thompson, at 22.2 ppg) is
hard to predict, but OSU’s defensive edge, recent surge, and the ability of
firebrand 5-9 PG Keiton Page to bounce through traffic and create opportunities
on the attack end are more-predictable elements that support the OSU
Gold Sheet
UCF 75 - Rhode Island 67—Orlando’s many theme parks have nothing on
the stomach-churning, rollercoaster ride UCF fans have enjoyed (endured?) so
far this season. Picked by most preseason pundits to finish near the bottom of
Conference USA, the lightly-regarded Golden Knights unexpectedly cracked
the lofty ranks of the nation’s top 20 after capturing their first 14 games
(including victories over Florida & Miami). But after reaching those heights,
UCF quickly took a steep plunge, losing eight straight games. The Knights
began another ascent in mid February, winning five of six. UCF then suffered
back-to-back double-digit losses, its first-round exit in the conference tourney
relegating the squad to the CBI. Perhaps we should have expected that the
unpredictable Knights would notch their first double-digit victory since
December in Wednesday’s opener against visiting St. Bonaventure.
Atlantic 10 rep Rhode Island has seen its own ups-and-downs, winning at
conference champ Richmond back on Jan. 13, then losing home games to
middle/lower rung La Salle and UMass before that month was finished. And
both teams have potent perimeter-post duos—UCF soph G Marcus Jordan
(Michael’s son) & 6-8 soph F Keith Clanton combine for nearly 30 ppg; same for
Rams’ senior tandem of G Marquis Jones & 6-8 F Delroy James. However, the
Knights’ home crowd, greater defensive resolve, and more judicious shot
selection should ultimately tilt this matchup in their favor, especially if 6-7
Serbian sharpshooter Nikola Malesevic (possible concussion; 47% from
beyond three-point arc) can’t make post for the Rams.
CREIGHTON 80 - Davidson 69—Most college basketball fans will
remember Davidson from its string of three straight NCAA tourney appearances
in 2006-2008, the last of those a feel-good run all the way to the Elite Eight
behind the sublime shooting of superstar G Stephen Curry. Make no mistake,
these are not those Wildcats. Curry is now in his second NBA campaign with
Golden State, a key piece of the rebuilding Warriors’ future plans. Davidson
went just 16-15 last season, then lost 12 of its first 20 games this year. The
‘Cats did capture 9 of their last 10 regular-season games. But a reminder that
Curry was no longer around came in the SoCon tourney, when Davidson hit a
grisly 18 of 75 from the field during its first-round setback against a UNC
Greensboro side that had lost 23 games.
Prefer to lay fair price with home-lovin’ Creighton, which is now 16-3 straight
up at Omaha’s Qwest Center after winning its last six (all but one by doubledigits)
as host. Both teams like to bomb away from three-point land. But the
Bluejays have a little better balance from beyond the arc, as seven different
players have made at least 23 treys so far this season. The Wildcats, on the
other hand, depend on fewer (albeit more-prolific) perimeter gunners. Also
might favor “over” the total points, as neither side is shy about pulling the trigger
on the attack end.
BOISE STATE 78 - Evansville 63—We know this isn’t the Big Dance, but
if you want to see dubious credentials for post-season inclusion, check out
Evansville. The high point of the Aces’ season came in November, when they
won in overtime at Butler. From there, Evansville was a sub-.500 team, going
11-12 the rest of the way, including five losses in its last six games. Despite that
less-than-stellar résumé, the Aces still ended up hosting a first-round CBI
game, and, to their credit, managed a victory over capable Colonial rep Hofstra.
A trip to burgeoning Boise State is a different matter, however, and it’s likely
that Evansville will continue its poor-traveling ways in Idaho. The Aces have lost
five straight (and 10 of their last 12) away from home. Meanwhile, the Broncos
have won five straight at Taco Bell Arena, all but one of those victories by double
digits. And the matchup doesn’t look that much better for Evansville from a
fundamental perspective. BSU has four double-digit scorers (all seniors), while
the Aces feature just one. That superior balance—which has recently been enhanced by the shooting of frosh G Jeff Elorriaga (11 ppg, 10 of 16 treys in the
last three)—along with the Broncos’ more conscientious defense & rebounding,
plus their solid FTing (72%), should equal a cover for favored BSU.
Duquesne 85 - OREGON 81—Although there was no total available on this
game at TGS press time (and it will be high once the price is set), our strongest
recommendation in this matchup is probably the “over.” Both teams like to
press & trap on defense and are inclined to run & gun on offense, which should
result in a fast-paced, high-scoring affair. As to the side, it’s difficult to draw a
bead on erratic Duquesne. After their first game in February, the Dukes were
16-5 straight up, 12-2 vs. the spread, and appeared headed to their first NCAA
tourney bid in more than three decades. But Duquesne faded badly from there,
losing 6 of its last 8 regular-season games (1-7 against the line). So after the
Dukes got dumped by lightly-regarded St. Joe’s as a double-digit favorite in the
first round of the A-10 tourney, we must admit we weren’t expecting much from
them in their CBI opener at capable Big Sky rep Montana. But Duquesne’s
pressure defense had the desired effect on the Grizzlies, as the Dukes shot
54% from the field, thanks to the numerous fastbreak opportunities (14 steals).
Oregon experienced lots of growing pains this season under new head
coach Dana Altman, as the Ducks finished the regular-season just 14-16
straight up. Things brightened a bit with a couple victories in the Pac-10
tourney. And, after a lopsided loss to eventual conference champ Washington
in the semifinals, sub-.500 Oregon did manage to capture its CBI opener at
home against a non-vintage Weber State side. Still, prefer to back visiting
Duquesne at near pick ‘em in this Round 2 matchup, as the Dukes’ far superior
scoring balance (four contribute double-digit points) should allow them to
eventually outdistance the game, but still-developing, Ducks.
UCF 75 - Rhode Island 67—Orlando’s many theme parks have nothing on
the stomach-churning, rollercoaster ride UCF fans have enjoyed (endured?) so
far this season. Picked by most preseason pundits to finish near the bottom of
Conference USA, the lightly-regarded Golden Knights unexpectedly cracked
the lofty ranks of the nation’s top 20 after capturing their first 14 games
(including victories over Florida & Miami). But after reaching those heights,
UCF quickly took a steep plunge, losing eight straight games. The Knights
began another ascent in mid February, winning five of six. UCF then suffered
back-to-back double-digit losses, its first-round exit in the conference tourney
relegating the squad to the CBI. Perhaps we should have expected that the
unpredictable Knights would notch their first double-digit victory since
December in Wednesday’s opener against visiting St. Bonaventure.
Atlantic 10 rep Rhode Island has seen its own ups-and-downs, winning at
conference champ Richmond back on Jan. 13, then losing home games to
middle/lower rung La Salle and UMass before that month was finished. And
both teams have potent perimeter-post duos—UCF soph G Marcus Jordan
(Michael’s son) & 6-8 soph F Keith Clanton combine for nearly 30 ppg; same for
Rams’ senior tandem of G Marquis Jones & 6-8 F Delroy James. However, the
Knights’ home crowd, greater defensive resolve, and more judicious shot
selection should ultimately tilt this matchup in their favor, especially if 6-7
Serbian sharpshooter Nikola Malesevic (possible concussion; 47% from
beyond three-point arc) can’t make post for the Rams.
CREIGHTON 80 - Davidson 69—Most college basketball fans will
remember Davidson from its string of three straight NCAA tourney appearances
in 2006-2008, the last of those a feel-good run all the way to the Elite Eight
behind the sublime shooting of superstar G Stephen Curry. Make no mistake,
these are not those Wildcats. Curry is now in his second NBA campaign with
Golden State, a key piece of the rebuilding Warriors’ future plans. Davidson
went just 16-15 last season, then lost 12 of its first 20 games this year. The
‘Cats did capture 9 of their last 10 regular-season games. But a reminder that
Curry was no longer around came in the SoCon tourney, when Davidson hit a
grisly 18 of 75 from the field during its first-round setback against a UNC
Greensboro side that had lost 23 games.
Prefer to lay fair price with home-lovin’ Creighton, which is now 16-3 straight
up at Omaha’s Qwest Center after winning its last six (all but one by doubledigits)
as host. Both teams like to bomb away from three-point land. But the
Bluejays have a little better balance from beyond the arc, as seven different
players have made at least 23 treys so far this season. The Wildcats, on the
other hand, depend on fewer (albeit more-prolific) perimeter gunners. Also
might favor “over” the total points, as neither side is shy about pulling the trigger
on the attack end.
BOISE STATE 78 - Evansville 63—We know this isn’t the Big Dance, but
if you want to see dubious credentials for post-season inclusion, check out
Evansville. The high point of the Aces’ season came in November, when they
won in overtime at Butler. From there, Evansville was a sub-.500 team, going
11-12 the rest of the way, including five losses in its last six games. Despite that
less-than-stellar résumé, the Aces still ended up hosting a first-round CBI
game, and, to their credit, managed a victory over capable Colonial rep Hofstra.
A trip to burgeoning Boise State is a different matter, however, and it’s likely
that Evansville will continue its poor-traveling ways in Idaho. The Aces have lost
five straight (and 10 of their last 12) away from home. Meanwhile, the Broncos
have won five straight at Taco Bell Arena, all but one of those victories by double
digits. And the matchup doesn’t look that much better for Evansville from a
fundamental perspective. BSU has four double-digit scorers (all seniors), while
the Aces feature just one. That superior balance—which has recently been enhanced by the shooting of frosh G Jeff Elorriaga (11 ppg, 10 of 16 treys in the
last three)—along with the Broncos’ more conscientious defense & rebounding,
plus their solid FTing (72%), should equal a cover for favored BSU.
Duquesne 85 - OREGON 81—Although there was no total available on this
game at TGS press time (and it will be high once the price is set), our strongest
recommendation in this matchup is probably the “over.” Both teams like to
press & trap on defense and are inclined to run & gun on offense, which should
result in a fast-paced, high-scoring affair. As to the side, it’s difficult to draw a
bead on erratic Duquesne. After their first game in February, the Dukes were
16-5 straight up, 12-2 vs. the spread, and appeared headed to their first NCAA
tourney bid in more than three decades. But Duquesne faded badly from there,
losing 6 of its last 8 regular-season games (1-7 against the line). So after the
Dukes got dumped by lightly-regarded St. Joe’s as a double-digit favorite in the
first round of the A-10 tourney, we must admit we weren’t expecting much from
them in their CBI opener at capable Big Sky rep Montana. But Duquesne’s
pressure defense had the desired effect on the Grizzlies, as the Dukes shot
54% from the field, thanks to the numerous fastbreak opportunities (14 steals).
Oregon experienced lots of growing pains this season under new head
coach Dana Altman, as the Ducks finished the regular-season just 14-16
straight up. Things brightened a bit with a couple victories in the Pac-10
tourney. And, after a lopsided loss to eventual conference champ Washington
in the semifinals, sub-.500 Oregon did manage to capture its CBI opener at
home against a non-vintage Weber State side. Still, prefer to back visiting
Duquesne at near pick ‘em in this Round 2 matchup, as the Dukes’ far superior
scoring balance (four contribute double-digit points) should allow them to
eventually outdistance the game, but still-developing, Ducks.
GC NBA Play
Monday Rare Double System NBA Total beats the line by over 20 points + Highest rated NIT 100% Power Angle Play. Radio show info + free NBA System play below
On Monday the Free NBA Totals system play is on the under in the Golden State at San Antonio Sours game. Rotation numbers 611/612 at 8:30 eastern. This game fits a 90% system that dates to 1995 and is illustrated below for your viewing pleasure. What we want to do in this game is play the under for rested home favorites that scored 100 or more in their last game if they were favored by 10 or more points and are now taking on an opponent that scored 80 or less as a road dog of 5 or more in their last game. If the posted total is 190 or higher these games have gone under the total 9 of 10 times with 2 games landing on the number for a push. The Warriors have to take on the Spurs one night after getting pasted by the Dallas Mavericks. We note that the Warriors are have gone under in 10 of 13 games off 3 or more losses, 5 of 7 times as a road dog from +9.5 to +12 and 10 of 14 times in the second of back to back nights. The Spurs have played under in 6 of 7 games this season when the posted total is 210 or higher. Look for this one to play under the total here tonight. On Monday I have a Rare NBA Totals system that beats the Line by over 20 points. I also have the highest rated NIT Play going tonight from a scintillating 100% Power Angle. Unit rated College Tournament plays are cashing over 80% the last week. Jump on and start the week big. Tonight sports talk radio show segment on 88.9 wsia.fm will be moved to 8:30 eastern and I will have a Bonus Play in one of the upcoming sweet 16 Tournament games later this week. . For the Bonus Play take the under in the Golden State at San Antonio game. GC
O/U: 1-9-2 (-10.8) avg total: 199.2
Date
Team Opp Site Final Rest FG% Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
19960318 SEA LAC H 104-101 2&2 45-47 -13' +205 3 -10.5 0.0 -5.2 5.2 W L P
19961222 SEA DAL H 93-79 1&1 42-40 -14 +204 14 0.0 -32.0 -16.0 -16.0 W P U
19971220 SEA GSW H 108-89 1&1 46-42 -17 +195 19 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 W W O
19980416 UTH SAC H 99-86 1&1 45-42 -17' +198 13 -4.5 -13.0 -8.8 -4.2 W L U
20010325 TOR MEM H 102-92 1&1 44-44 -13 +195 10 -3.0 -1.0 -2.0 1.0 W L U
20040113 SAC MIA H 90-86 1&2 48-44 -14 +194' 4 -10.0 -18.5 -14.2 -4.2 W L U
20041123 LAL MIL H 100-96 1&1 49-49 -5' +199' 4 -1.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.0 W L U
20050120 DAL LAC H 99-77 1&0 48-35 -12 +206' 22 10.0 -30.5 -10.2 -20.2 W W U
20071120 DEN CHI H 112-91 2&1 50-40 -8' +203 21 12.5 0.0 6.2 -6.2 W W P
20090112 NOR NYK H 95-101 2&1 38-43 -11 +202' -6 -17.0 -6.5 -11.8 5.2 L L U
20100321 LAL WAS H 99-92 1&1 52-48 -13 +196 7 -6.0 -5.0 -5.5 0.5 W L U
20101201 MIA DET H 97-72 1&0 51-36 -11' +191 25 13.5 -22.0 -4.2 -17.8 W W U
20110321 SAS GSW H 1&0 -11 +211
Monday Rare Double System NBA Total beats the line by over 20 points + Highest rated NIT 100% Power Angle Play. Radio show info + free NBA System play below
On Monday the Free NBA Totals system play is on the under in the Golden State at San Antonio Sours game. Rotation numbers 611/612 at 8:30 eastern. This game fits a 90% system that dates to 1995 and is illustrated below for your viewing pleasure. What we want to do in this game is play the under for rested home favorites that scored 100 or more in their last game if they were favored by 10 or more points and are now taking on an opponent that scored 80 or less as a road dog of 5 or more in their last game. If the posted total is 190 or higher these games have gone under the total 9 of 10 times with 2 games landing on the number for a push. The Warriors have to take on the Spurs one night after getting pasted by the Dallas Mavericks. We note that the Warriors are have gone under in 10 of 13 games off 3 or more losses, 5 of 7 times as a road dog from +9.5 to +12 and 10 of 14 times in the second of back to back nights. The Spurs have played under in 6 of 7 games this season when the posted total is 210 or higher. Look for this one to play under the total here tonight. On Monday I have a Rare NBA Totals system that beats the Line by over 20 points. I also have the highest rated NIT Play going tonight from a scintillating 100% Power Angle. Unit rated College Tournament plays are cashing over 80% the last week. Jump on and start the week big. Tonight sports talk radio show segment on 88.9 wsia.fm will be moved to 8:30 eastern and I will have a Bonus Play in one of the upcoming sweet 16 Tournament games later this week. . For the Bonus Play take the under in the Golden State at San Antonio game. GC
O/U: 1-9-2 (-10.8) avg total: 199.2
Date
Team Opp Site Final Rest FG% Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
19960318 SEA LAC H 104-101 2&2 45-47 -13' +205 3 -10.5 0.0 -5.2 5.2 W L P
19961222 SEA DAL H 93-79 1&1 42-40 -14 +204 14 0.0 -32.0 -16.0 -16.0 W P U
19971220 SEA GSW H 108-89 1&1 46-42 -17 +195 19 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 W W O
19980416 UTH SAC H 99-86 1&1 45-42 -17' +198 13 -4.5 -13.0 -8.8 -4.2 W L U
20010325 TOR MEM H 102-92 1&1 44-44 -13 +195 10 -3.0 -1.0 -2.0 1.0 W L U
20040113 SAC MIA H 90-86 1&2 48-44 -14 +194' 4 -10.0 -18.5 -14.2 -4.2 W L U
20041123 LAL MIL H 100-96 1&1 49-49 -5' +199' 4 -1.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.0 W L U
20050120 DAL LAC H 99-77 1&0 48-35 -12 +206' 22 10.0 -30.5 -10.2 -20.2 W W U
20071120 DEN CHI H 112-91 2&1 50-40 -8' +203 21 12.5 0.0 6.2 -6.2 W W P
20090112 NOR NYK H 95-101 2&1 38-43 -11 +202' -6 -17.0 -6.5 -11.8 5.2 L L U
20100321 LAL WAS H 99-92 1&1 52-48 -13 +196 7 -6.0 -5.0 -5.5 0.5 W L U
20101201 MIA DET H 97-72 1&0 51-36 -11' +191 25 13.5 -22.0 -4.2 -17.8 W W U
20110321 SAS GSW H 1&0 -11 +211
