GC: NCAAB Play
Big Monday triple Pack has the 26-1 NBA Total Of the Month System and a Double Perfect NCAAB Big 12 ESPNU Power Side. Lastly a 14-1 NBA League wide system dating to 1995. NBA Remains at or near the top of several Leader boards this season. NCAAB Power angle play below.
On Monday the College Hoops play is on Towson. St. Game 735 at 7:00 eastern. Towson is quietly putting together a nice season sitting 2nd at this point in Colonial Athletic Conference play. They have several indicators on them tonight as they are laying a few here at UNC Wilmington. Towson has won all 5 times with a 4-0-1 spread mark vs teams who average 65 or less points and 10-1 vs losing teams. In the series they have won 4 straight, covering in 3 of those games. In games vs teams ranked outside the top 200 in the RPI Scale they are a solid 12-1. UNC Wilmington is 0-11 off 3+ losses and is winless in Conference play. When installed as an under dog they have failed to cover 9 of 13 times. They have revenge here but have lost to the spread 3 of 4 times with road loss revenge and are a dismal 7-31 vs winning teams. They have a mediocre 273 ranking in the RPI Scale and are 0-6 vs teams ranked from 100 to 200. Look for Towson to get the cash tonight. Monday card has 3 Big plays. The lead is a 26-1 NBA Total Of the Month and a Double Perfect BIG 12 Side on ESPN U. There is also a 14-1 NBA Power system side. NBA Continues to be highly ranked again this season. Jump on now and start the week big. For the free NCAAB Play take Towson St. GC
Big Monday triple Pack has the 26-1 NBA Total Of the Month System and a Double Perfect NCAAB Big 12 ESPNU Power Side. Lastly a 14-1 NBA League wide system dating to 1995. NBA Remains at or near the top of several Leader boards this season. NCAAB Power angle play below.
On Monday the College Hoops play is on Towson. St. Game 735 at 7:00 eastern. Towson is quietly putting together a nice season sitting 2nd at this point in Colonial Athletic Conference play. They have several indicators on them tonight as they are laying a few here at UNC Wilmington. Towson has won all 5 times with a 4-0-1 spread mark vs teams who average 65 or less points and 10-1 vs losing teams. In the series they have won 4 straight, covering in 3 of those games. In games vs teams ranked outside the top 200 in the RPI Scale they are a solid 12-1. UNC Wilmington is 0-11 off 3+ losses and is winless in Conference play. When installed as an under dog they have failed to cover 9 of 13 times. They have revenge here but have lost to the spread 3 of 4 times with road loss revenge and are a dismal 7-31 vs winning teams. They have a mediocre 273 ranking in the RPI Scale and are 0-6 vs teams ranked from 100 to 200. Look for Towson to get the cash tonight. Monday card has 3 Big plays. The lead is a 26-1 NBA Total Of the Month and a Double Perfect BIG 12 Side on ESPN U. There is also a 14-1 NBA Power system side. NBA Continues to be highly ranked again this season. Jump on now and start the week big. For the free NCAAB Play take Towson St. GC
StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets
CBB SOUTHERN UTAH at SACRAMENTO ST.
Play On - Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (SOUTHERN UTAH) revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points, off 2 covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
CBB FURMAN at W CAROLINA
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (FURMAN) in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG), after a loss by 15 points or more
117-161 over the last 5 seasons. ( 42.1% 71.6 units )
22-25 this year. ( 46.8% 18.1 units )
CBB MIAMI at FLORIDA ST
Play Under - Home teams against the total after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%)
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% -1.2 units )
CBB SOUTHERN UTAH at SACRAMENTO ST.
Play On - Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (SOUTHERN UTAH) revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points, off 2 covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
CBB FURMAN at W CAROLINA
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (FURMAN) in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG), after a loss by 15 points or more
117-161 over the last 5 seasons. ( 42.1% 71.6 units )
22-25 this year. ( 46.8% 18.1 units )
CBB MIAMI at FLORIDA ST
Play Under - Home teams against the total after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%)
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% -1.2 units )
Ecks and Bacon
Ben lee lost on Sunday with his three team six point teaser in college basketball.
(1) Connecticut from -6 to Pk/Central Florida (W)
(2) Oregon State from +15 to +21/Arizona (L)
(3) Washington from +7 to +13/Colorado (L)
For Monday E&B are going to college basketball and like Georgetown -4/Providence.
Ecks and Bacon is 53-68-2 -$1548 through fifteen weeks.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
Ben lee lost on Sunday with his three team six point teaser in college basketball.
(1) Connecticut from -6 to Pk/Central Florida (W)
(2) Oregon State from +15 to +21/Arizona (L)
(3) Washington from +7 to +13/Colorado (L)
For Monday E&B are going to college basketball and like Georgetown -4/Providence.
Ecks and Bacon is 53-68-2 -$1548 through fifteen weeks.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/10/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 2/10/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting Notes - Monday
•Hot Teams
-- Pacers won four of their last five games.
-- New Orleans won six of its last nine games; they're 7-1 versus spread in game following their last eight losses.
-- Detroit won its last four home games, but fired its coach yesterday. Spurs won four of their last five games.
-- Celtics won three of their last four games.
-- Rockets won their last five games (4-1 vs. spread).
•Cold Teams
-- Nuggets lost four of their last six games.
-- Raptors lost three of their last four games.
-- Bucks lost eight of last nine games, but covered last four.
-- Timberwolves lost five of their last six games.
-- Golden State is 3-4 in its last seven home games. 76ers lost their last six games (1-5 vs. spread).
•Totals
-- Six of last seven Denver-Indiana games went over total; five of last seven Pacer games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Pelican games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four San Antonio games went over.
-- Six of last eight Boston games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Houston games stayed under.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Philly's last five games.
•Back-To-Backs
-- Pacers are 0-5 versus spread if they played on road night before.
-- New Orleans is 4-6-2 versus spread if it played night before.
-- Celtics are 1-3 versus spread on road if they played at home day before.
-- 76ers are 1-8 versus spread if they lost the night before.
•Series Records
-- Pacers lost five in row, seven of last eight games versus Denver.
-- Raptors won six of last seven games with New Orleans.
-- Spurs won four of their last five games versus Detroit.
-- Bucks won four of last five games with Boston.
-- Rockets won three of last four games versus Minnesota.
-- 76ers won six of last nine games with Golden State.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- PHILADELPHIA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 100.5, OPPONENT 114.2.
-- DETROIT is 17-2 OVER (+14.8 Units) when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season.
The average score was DETROIT 102.8, OPPONENT 104.0.
-- SAN ANTONIO is 45-29 (+13.1 Units) against the 1rst half line after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 50.9, OPPONENT 45.4.
-- SAN ANTONIO is 53-23 UNDER (+27.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 49.1, OPPONENT 46.5.
-- KEVIN MCHALE is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better as the coach of HOUSTON.
The average score was MCHALE 109.7, OPPONENT 100.5.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- DENVER is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 107.9, OPPONENT 99.5.
-- TORONTO is 23-6 UNDER (+16.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 93.6, OPPONENT 91.5.
-- PHILADELPHIA is 12-26 (-16.6 Units) against the 1rst half line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 45.5, OPPONENT 48.7.
-- PHILADELPHIA is 23-8 OVER (+14.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 52.8, OPPONENT 57.8.
-- DWANE CASEY is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season as the coach of TORONTO.
The average score was CASEY 94.4, OPPONENT 90.1.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MILWAUKEE) - cold team - having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, revenging a loss versus opponent, off 2 covers where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog.
(66-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (90.4%, +51.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -204.3
The average score in these games was: Team 103, Opponent 91.5 (Average point differential = +11.5)
The situation's record this season is: (8-0, +8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-6, +18.4 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (208-54, +44.5 units).
-- Play On - Road underdogs of 10 or more points (PHILADELPHIA) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record.
(83-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.5%, +53.3 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (62-50 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.7
The average score in these games was: Team 102.4, Opponent 101.2 (Average point differential = +1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 56 (51.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (25-7).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (48-15).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (188-132).
-- Play Against - Favorites of 10 or more points (GOLDEN STATE) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more, after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games.
(29-7 since 1996.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (4-33)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 11.8
The average score in these games was: Team 93.6, Opponent 101.7 (Average point differential = -8.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (35.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-5).
-- Play Over - Any team (HOUSTON) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.
(26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 195.5
The average score in these games was: Team 103.2, Opponent 98.7 (Total points scored = 201.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (57.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (104-62).
-- Play On - Underdogs versus the 1rst half line (DENVER) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team, in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%).
(32-9 since 1996.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.2, Opponent 48.6 (Average first half point differential = -0.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
-- Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (DENVER) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's).
(140-58 since 1996.) (70.7%, +76.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.6, Opponent 47.6 (Total first half points scored = 95.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-6).
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Betting News & Notes Week #16
We are nearing the NBA’s All-Star break and just passed the midway point in terms of games played - also known as hunting season when it comes to NBA head coaches on the hot seat and we have already lost one coach in Detroit's former bench boss Maurice Cheeks. Sometimes a hot seat can push a coach and his team, giving them added line value. Other times, players quit on their coach and it burns everything to the ground – including your bankroll.
StatSystems Sports Systems Analyst William Stillman looks at four coaches who may be getting the pink slip sooner rather than later. And the one big thing these guys all have in common is a sub .500 ATS record, with the four teams below combining to go 85-112-1 ATS - covering just 43 percent of the time.
•Mike Woodson (New York Knicks)
Record: 19-30 SU, 20-29 ATS
If you believe reports circulating over the last couple of days, the time on Mike Woodson’s tenure could be over before next week's All-Star break. The New York Daily News says owner James Dolan met with Woodson following the team’s loss to the Portland Trail Blazers and a recent loss to the Milwaukee Bucks may have been the final nail for a team floundering at 19-30 with the league’s second-highest payroll.
•Mike Brown (Cleveland Cavaliers)
Record: 16-33 SU, 19-30 ATS
When you’re starting point guard is asked if the team has quit on you, it doesn’t bode well for your future. Neither does a team allowing 102.5 points per game, including 119 and 124 points back-to-back, when you have hung your career on being a defensive guru. Now that the GM who hired you has been fired, no one can imagine Mike Brown’s second-stint in charge of the Cavs ending in anything but tears (for him).
•Brett Brown (Philadelphia 76ers)
Record: 15-35 SU, 20-30 ATS
By the sounds of things, Brown may quit before he is fired after telling reporters the 76ers rebuilding process is, “much harder," and “something that I didn't judge properly.” There’s no doubt Philly is in tank mode but those recent comments may have Sixers brass rethinking their choice of a head coach who will help them rebuild in a very unforgiving market.
•Marc Jackson (Golden State Warriors)
Record: 30-20 SU, 22-26-2 ATS
Jackson has overachieved as head coach of Golden State until now. But this NBA gig is all about “what have you done for me lately”. After spending money in the offseason and looking like a contender early on, the Warriors are now falling down the Western Conference playoff picture. It would be surprising to see the club dump such a popular coach but it wouldn’t be smart to bet against it if the team keeps sliding.
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Monday's Match-ups
#701 DENVER @ #702 INDIANA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, Altitude (Denver), FSN Indiana Line: Pacers -10.5, Total: 199.5) - The Indiana Pacers' killer instinct went missing Sunday in Orlando, but they'll try to rediscover it when they return home to host the Denver Nuggets on Monday. The Pacers, who were unable to put away the lowly Magic in a 93-92 road loss, are looking to avoid losing consecutive games for only the second time this season. They're also trying to avoid their sixth straight loss to the Nuggets, including a 109-96 defeat on Jan. 25 in Denver.
The Pacers suffered from a rare lapse of effort in the second half at Orlando and were outscored 29-18 in the final quarter. "We got a little loose and we just didn't play the game the right way down the stretch," forward David West told the Indianapolis Star. "If you don't do that, you'll get beat." The Nuggets, who are five games behind eighth-place Golden State in the Western Conference, have lost two straight and seven of their last 11.
•ABOUT THE NUGGETS (24-25 SU, 22-27-0 ATS): Denver is likely to be without point guard Ty Lawson (broken rib), which hurts at the offensive end, but the Nuggets' bigger problems are on defense. They just gave up 126 points in a loss to a Detroit team that fired its coach a day later and have allowed 100 or more points in seven straight games and 12 of the last 13. Randy Foye, who slid from shooting guard to the point after Lawson's injury Saturday, has put up big numbers lately with an average of 17.2 points over his past 17 games, and Denver will need him to continue that production while Lawson is sidelined.
•ABOUT THE PACERS (39-11 SU, 31-19-0 ATS): The sky isn't falling in Indiana, as the loss to Orlando snapped a four-game winning streak and the Pacers still own the best record in the NBA. A silver lining from Sunday's loss was Paul George breaking out of a mini slump with 27 points, just the second time in the last eight games he has topped 20. Guard Lance Stephenson has been nursing a sore back but played 40 minutes against the Magic, so his status could be in question in the second game of a back-to-back.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Nuggets have won seven of the last nine meetings in Indianapolis and 15 of the last 18 overall against the Pacers.... The Pacers are an NBA-best 24-2 at home, where they allow just 85.8 points per game.... Denver C J.J. Hickson has recorded double-doubles in 15 of his last 26 games.... Indiana is 42-26 versus the spread versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 36% of their attempts over the last two seasons.... The Nuggets are 14-4 against the spread versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DENVER covered the spread 560 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 440 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA won the game straight up 701 times, while DENVER won 273 times. In 1000 simulated games, 530 games went under the total, while 470 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, DENVER covered the first half line 547 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 423 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 515 games went under first half total, while 447 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DENVER is 17-14 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1996.
--DENVER is 17-16 straight up against INDIANA since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--DENVER is 18-14 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANA since 1996.
--16 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Indiana.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Under is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Under is 6-1-1 in Pacers last 8 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
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#703 NEW ORLEANS @ #704 TORONTO
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, FSN New Orleans, TSN2 (Toronto) - Line: Raptors -7, Total: 193.5) - Two of the NBA's most promising young big men do battle Monday night in Toronto when Jonas Valanciunas and the Raptors entertain Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans. Davis is the superior of the two at this point in his career, but his Pelicans are coming off a 93-81 loss in Brooklyn on Sunday. Valanciunas' Raptors are in a better spot, leading the Atlantic Division despite coming off back-to-back losses to Sacramento and the Clippers.
Toronto reaches the 50-game plateau with a somewhat comfortable 2 1/2-game lead over the Nets in the Atlantic. The Raptors finished 2-3 on their five-game Western Conference road trip, and now enjoy one of their cushiest stretches of the year with 11 of their next 15 games coming at the Air Canada Centre. That stretch begins with Monday's visit from a New Orleans team that has cracked 100 points just once in its previous six games.
•ABOUT THE PELICANS (22-28 SU, 23-25-2 ATS): The way that Davis has played so far this season, it's easy to forget that he's just 20 years old. The first-time All-Star is one of only four players averaging better than 20 points and 10 rebounds and leads the league in blocked shots with 133. "He uses all of his abilities to his advantage out there on the basketball court," Raptors forward Patrick Patterson told the Toronto Sun. "He's lanky, can finish above the rim, excellent rebounder and his scoring ability has gotten so much better."
•ABOUT THE RAPTORS (26-24 SU, 30-20-0 ATS): While Davis is getting all the headlines - and rightfully so - Valanciunas has been a solid second-year player in his own right. The 21-year-old will participate in the Rising Stars game during All-Star Weekend, marking the culmination of his emergence as a strong two-way player in the rapidly improving Toronto lineup. "He deserves it," Raptors head coach Dwane Casey told the Star. "We're excited for Jonas. he's an up-and-coming rising star in this league."
•PREGAME NOTES: Toronto has won the last four meetings dating back to early 2011.... Davis averages 13.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in two career games against the Raptors.... New Orleans is just 3-9 in the tail end of back-to-backs.... The Raptors are 15-5 against the spread versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 76% of their attempts this season.... The Pelicans are 4-13 versus the spread in road games second half of the season over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the spread 594 times, while NEW ORLEANS covered the spread 371 times. *EDGE against the spread =TORONTO. In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO won the game straight up 764 times, while NEW ORLEANS won 213 times. In 1000 simulated games, 531 games went over the total, while 469 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the first half line 593 times, while NEW ORLEANS covered the first half line 407 times. *EDGE against first half line =TORONTO. In 1000 simulated games, 501 games went over first half total, while 499 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEW ORLEANS is 24-22 against the spread versus TORONTO since 1996.
--NEW ORLEANS is 27-21 straight up against TORONTO since 1996.
--26 of 45 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--TORONTO is 24-22 versus the first half line when playing against NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--23 of 44 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Pelicans are 0-7 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Toronto.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
--Pelicans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Pelicans are 1-4-1 ATS L6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Raptors are 6-1 ATS L7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Raptors are 6-1 ATS L7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
--Over is 7-1 in Raptors last 8 Monday games.
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#705 SAN ANTONIO @ #706 DETROIT
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, FSN Southwest (San Antonio), FSN Detroit - Line: Spurs -4, Total: 205.5) - The Detroit Pistons have won four of their last six games but still went ahead and fired coach Maurice Cheeks on Sunday and assistant coach John Loyer is expected to lead the team into Monday’s home game against the San Antonio Spurs. Cheeks was 21-29 in his first season in Detroit and the 50-game stint is the fifth-shortest for an NBA coach in the last quarter-century. The Pistons are ninth in the Eastern Conference, a half-game behind Charlotte for the final playoff spot.
Detroit received big efforts from point guard Brandon Jennings (season-high 35 points to go with 12 assists) and forward Josh Smith (30 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists) in Cheeks’ final game, a 126-109 win over Denver. San Antonio has won four of its last five games and is 3-1 to start the nine-game rodeo road trip. The Spurs may not know until close to game time whether point guard Tony Parker (back) will be available. Parker missed a game last week with back issues and then sat out the final quarter of Saturday’s 104-100 victory over Charlotte.
•ABOUT THE SPURS (37-14 SU, 24-27-0 ATS): San Antonio has been decimated by injuries, and one of the players taking advantage of the situation is 25-year-old guard Patty Mills. With Parker ailing, Mills scored 18 of his season-best 32 points in the fourth quarter and was 10-of-13 shooting overall. “His motor is always going,” San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich said afterward. “He doesn’t need me to do anything to get him going. He’s a competitor. He’s played on the Australian Olympic team for I don’t know how many years. He’s a competitor. He’s not impressed with the NBA. He just comes and plays.”
•ABOUT THE PISTONS (21-29 SU, 22-27-1 ATS): Detroit has won its last two games by an average of 16.5 points and posted a season best for points in Saturday’s victory over Denver, which served to make it odd timing for Cheeks to be fired. Owner Tom Gores released a statement that contained the following comment: “Our record does not reflect our talent and we simply need a change.” Gores didn’t feel the team was making enough progress with Cheeks at the helm despite four double-digit victories over the last six games. Published reports point to the Pistons making a run at Lionel Hollins to see if the former Memphis coach is interested in the gig.
•PREGAME NOTES: Detroit has won six of its last 10 home games against Spurs.... San Antonio hopes to have C Tiago Splitter (calf) and G Marco Belinelli (back) for the contest.... Jennings is averaging 25.1 points over his last nine games.... The Spurs are 3-13 against the spread versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.... Detroit is 39-20 versus the spread in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting less than 21 free throws/game since 1996.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 515 times, while DETROIT covered the spread 466 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 614 times, while DETROIT won 360 times. In 1000 simulated games, 551 games went over the total, while 449 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 507 times, while DETROIT covered the first half line 445 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 513 games went over first half total, while 487 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DETROIT is 20-18 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 23-16 straight up against DETROIT since 1996.
--20 of 37 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--DETROIT is 19-19 versus the first half line when playing against SAN ANTONIO since 1996.
--19 of 36 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Spurs are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Detroit.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Detroit.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 Monday games.
--Under is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 after allowing 100 points or more.
--Over is 8-1 in Spurs last 9 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more.
--Over is 9-1 in Pistons last 10 Monday games.
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#707 HOUSTON @ #708 MINNESOTA
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, NBA TV, CSN Houston, FSN North (Minnesota) - Line: Rockets -4.5, Total: 208) - The Houston Rockets are shooting for a season-high sixth straight win as they head to Minnesota to take on the Timberwolves on Monday. The Rockets survived a lackluster effort in a 101-95 win at Milwaukee on Saturday to move a season-high 17 games above .500. The Timberwolves are headed in the other direction, having lost three straight and five of six to slip six games behind eighth-place Golden State in the Western Conference.
Even as they've matched their hottest streak of the season, the Rockets have been disappointed with their inconsistency, especially their difficulty in putting away the lowly Bucks. "We're too up and down right now," guard Jeremy Lin told reporters. "It would be nice for us to build leads and really dominate from start to finish." Minnesota knows the feeling, as the Timberwolves have bobbed just below the .500 mark for most of the season and are in danger of suffering a season-high fourth consecutive loss.
•ABOUT THE ROCKETS (34-17 SU, 26-23-2 ATS): Houston has a ton of offensive firepower and has shown it off recently. Dwight Howard has been dominant of late, recording double-doubles in eight of the past 10 games and averaging 22.2 points and 11.7 rebounds over that span, and leading scorer James Harden has scored at least 22 points in his first three games back from a two-game absence with a bruised thumb. Center Omer Asik (thigh, knee) returned to the court against Milwaukee in his first action since Dec. 2 and recorded five rebounds in 11 minutes.
•ABOUT THE TIMBERWOLVES (24-27 SU, 26-25-0 ATS): Minnesota has been without power forward Kevin Love (25.6 points, 13.3 rebounds) for two of the past three games, further depleting a once-dominant frontcourt that is also missing center Nikola Pekovic (ankle). Playing without the two big men — and shooting guard Kevin Martin (thumb) — completely changes the team's dynamic and places more of the scoring burden on defensive-minded players like Corey Brewer and Ricky Rubio. Love, Martin and Pekovic combined for 62.6 points per game.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Rockets are averaging 108.6 points and shooting 50.8 percent from the field during their winning streak... The Timberwolves are 1-12 in games decided by four points or fewer.... Houston has won 12 straight games when scoring at least 100 points.... Minnesota is 1-10 versus the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.... The Rockets are 11-1 against the spread after four straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the spread 677 times, while HOUSTON covered the spread 323 times. *EDGE against the spread =MINNESOTA. In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA won the game straight up 566 times, while HOUSTON won 410 times. In 1000 simulated games, 539 games went under the total, while 441 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the first half line 634 times, while HOUSTON covered the first half line 366 times. *EDGE against first half line =MINNESOTA. In 1000 simulated games, 512 games went under first half total, while 460 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--HOUSTON is 34-29 against the spread versus MINNESOTA since 1996.
--HOUSTON is 40-27 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--34 of 62 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--HOUSTON is 32-31 versus the first half line when playing against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--37 of 63 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Rockets are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Rockets are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Minnesota.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more.
--Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more.
--Under is 4-0-1 in Timberwolves last 5 Monday games.
--Under is 6-0 in Timberwolves last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Under is 4-0-1 in Timberwolves last 5 after allowing 100 points or more.
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#709 BOSTON @ #710 MILWAUKEE
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, CSN (Boston), FSN Wisconsin (Milwaukee) - Line: Celtics -2, Total: 191) - The Boston Celtics will look to get back on track after a woeful shooting performance in Sunday's loss to Dallas when they face host Milwaukee on Monday. Boston shot less than 30 percent for most of the game against the Mavericks, finishing at 35.9 percent thanks to a late run that masked how bad a showing it was. While the lowly Bucks might seem a cure-all for most teams looking to rebound, there are no guarantees, as Boston is the only team Milwaukee has beaten more than once this season.
The Bucks have held the dubious distinction of the NBA's worst record nearly all season and have yet to put together even a two-game winning streak. Milwaukee's latest win came last Monday, edging New York 101-98 but it has since dropped two straight and may be forced to face the Celtics without center Larry Sanders, who exited Saturday's loss with blurred vision after an inadvertent elbow from James Harden on a contested rebound attempt. The Bucks have been plagued by injury and illness all season but guard O.J. Mayo, who has missed eight of the last games battling the flu and conditioning issues, won't blame the team's performance on any of those woes, telling reporters, "It's definitely not an excuse for us not winning."
•ABOUT THE CELTICS (18-34 SU, 25-26-1 ATS): Boston will face the Bucks without the services of point guard Rajon Rondo, who will sit on a scheduled day of rest after nearly notching a triple-double Sunday against Dallas. Rondo, who has averaged 14 points, 11 assists and 7.7 rebounds in his last three games, is no longer on a minutes restriction as he eases his way back into the rotation, still recovering from last February's knee surgery but will not play in both ends of back-to-backs according to coach Brad Stevens. "I think erring on the side of caution," Stevens told the Boston Herald recently, "is probably the right move."
•ABOUT THE BUCKS (9-41 SU, 19-31-0 ATS): The timing of Sanders' injury couldn't have been worse for the player or the team, coming one game after the fourth-year pro notched a career-high 25 points and a season-best 15 rebounds in a loss to Denver Wednesday. Frontcourt partner John Henson stepped up in Sanders' absence with his best game in nearly a month, finishing with 14 points and 10 rebounds in 41 minutes. Mayo, who is eying a return "before the All-Star break", specifically praised the play of Sanders and several other young Bucks in forecasting a bright future for the team, telling the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, "As long as you see those pieces are getting better, it's promising."
•PREGAME NOTES: Milwaukee has beaten Boston in five of the last seven meetings after the Celtics had run off six straight in the head-to-head series.... The Bucks were without Mayo, G Luke Ridnour (back), and Fs Caron Butler (ankle), Ersan Ilyasova (back) and Ekpe Udoh (ankle) against Houston. All are day-to-day, along with Sanders, with the exception of Butler, who is out indefinitely with a high ankle sprain.... Rondo recorded his 4,000th career assist on Sunday, finishing the game with 4,010 for his career, which ranks sixth all-time in Celtics history and is 19th among active players.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MILWAUKEE covered the spread 614 times, while BOSTON covered the spread 361 times. *EDGE against the spread =MILWAUKEE. In 1000 simulated games, MILWAUKEE won the game straight up 552 times, while BOSTON won 409 times. In 1000 simulated games, 538 games went under the total, while 446 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, MILWAUKEE covered the first half line 591 times, while BOSTON covered the first half line 378 times. *EDGE against first half line =MILWAUKEE. In 1000 simulated games, 552 games went under first half total, while 448 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MILWAUKEE is 38-24 against the spread versus BOSTON since 1996.
--MILWAUKEE is 35-29 straight up against BOSTON since 1996.
--31 of 62 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--MILWAUKEE is 31-30 versus the first half line when playing against BOSTON since 1996.
--33 of 62 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Celtics are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 13-6-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
--Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 Monday games.
--Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Over is 7-1 in Bucks last 8 Monday games.
--Over is 6-1 in Bucks L7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
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#711 PHILADELPHIA @ #712 GOLDEN STATE
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, CSN Philadelphia, CSN Bay Area (Golden State) - Line: Warriors -14.5, Total: 214.5) - The Golden State Warriors have been experiencing an inconsistent stretch, while the Philadelphia 76ers have just been consistently bad. The Warriors host the 76ers on Monday, hoping to put an uneven 6-8 stretch behind them after losing 122-109 to the Phoenix Suns on Saturday. Philadelphia has lost six straight outings and suffered one of the worst defeats in franchise history, 123-78 to the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday.
The 76ers trailed by as many as 56 points in the loss to the Clippers – a margin that also happens to be the same as the worst loss in team annals, 149-93 to the Seattle SuperSonics on March 6, 1993. Philadelphia trailed 30-5 just past the midway point of the opening quarter and was 8-of-52 shooting in the first half before finishing at 27 percent. Golden State expects to be without forward David Lee (shoulder, hip) for the third straight game and center Andrew Bogut (shoulder) is questionable after also missing the last two games.
•ABOUT THE 76ERS (15-37 SU, 20-32-0 ATS): Philadelphia was uncompetitive from the opening tip while being humiliated by the Clippers. The 76ers shot just 15.4 percent from the field in the first half – the lowest percentage by any team in any half all season – and coach Brett Brown turned the focus toward stemming the embarrassment. “We hoped to go compete at a level where we could win a quarter,” Brown said of his halftime message to his squad. “Everybody’s got pride and you want to represent your team, and coach your team, well. You don’t feel good sitting on the sideline as that is unfolding but it did and we’ll move on.”
•ABOUT THE WARRIORS (30-21 SU, 22-27-2 ATS): Veteran Andre Iguodala had his best outing of the season when he scored 32 points against his former team back in November. Iguodala spent eight seasons with the 76ers before being dealt to Denver prior to last season and he was on fire with a career-best seven 3-pointers in a 110-90 victory. He struggled against the 76ers in two outings with the Nuggets last season – scoring 24 total points – but was much more at ease in this year’s first game against his former club. Iguodala is averaging just 9.6 points and the Warriors are 9-4 when he scores in double digits.
•PREGAME NOTES: Golden State G Stephen Curry had 18 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds when the Warriors posted the win in Philadelphia on Nov. 4.... Sixers G Tony Wroten scored 21 against the Clippers and is averaging 18.2 points over the last five games.... Warriors F Harrison Barnes scored 23 points against the Suns for his fourth 20-point performance of the campaign.... The Sixers are 13-26 versus the spread when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last three seasons.... Golden State is 10-1 against the spread versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE covered the spread 605 times, while PHILADELPHIA covered the spread 395 times. *EDGE against the spread =GOLDEN STATE. In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE won the game straight up 870 times, while PHILADELPHIA won 111 times. In 1000 simulated games, 816 games went under the total, while 184 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE covered the first half line 543 times, while PHILADELPHIA covered the first half line 457 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 727 games went under first half total, while 248 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GOLDEN STATE is 18-15 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA since 1996.
--PHILADELPHIA is 17-16 straight up against GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--GOLDEN STATE is 19-13 versus the first half line when playing against PHILADELPHIA since 1996.
--20 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--76ers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--76ers are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Los Angeles.
--Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 3-0-1 in 76ers last 4 games following a ATS loss.
--Under is 3-0-1 in 76ers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--Clippers are 1-5 ATS L6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
--Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 Sunday games.
--Over is 8-0 in Clippers L8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
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NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 2/10/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting Notes - Monday
•Hot Teams
-- Pacers won four of their last five games.
-- New Orleans won six of its last nine games; they're 7-1 versus spread in game following their last eight losses.
-- Detroit won its last four home games, but fired its coach yesterday. Spurs won four of their last five games.
-- Celtics won three of their last four games.
-- Rockets won their last five games (4-1 vs. spread).
•Cold Teams
-- Nuggets lost four of their last six games.
-- Raptors lost three of their last four games.
-- Bucks lost eight of last nine games, but covered last four.
-- Timberwolves lost five of their last six games.
-- Golden State is 3-4 in its last seven home games. 76ers lost their last six games (1-5 vs. spread).
•Totals
-- Six of last seven Denver-Indiana games went over total; five of last seven Pacer games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Pelican games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four San Antonio games went over.
-- Six of last eight Boston games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Houston games stayed under.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Philly's last five games.
•Back-To-Backs
-- Pacers are 0-5 versus spread if they played on road night before.
-- New Orleans is 4-6-2 versus spread if it played night before.
-- Celtics are 1-3 versus spread on road if they played at home day before.
-- 76ers are 1-8 versus spread if they lost the night before.
•Series Records
-- Pacers lost five in row, seven of last eight games versus Denver.
-- Raptors won six of last seven games with New Orleans.
-- Spurs won four of their last five games versus Detroit.
-- Bucks won four of last five games with Boston.
-- Rockets won three of last four games versus Minnesota.
-- 76ers won six of last nine games with Golden State.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- PHILADELPHIA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 100.5, OPPONENT 114.2.
-- DETROIT is 17-2 OVER (+14.8 Units) when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season.
The average score was DETROIT 102.8, OPPONENT 104.0.
-- SAN ANTONIO is 45-29 (+13.1 Units) against the 1rst half line after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 50.9, OPPONENT 45.4.
-- SAN ANTONIO is 53-23 UNDER (+27.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 49.1, OPPONENT 46.5.
-- KEVIN MCHALE is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better as the coach of HOUSTON.
The average score was MCHALE 109.7, OPPONENT 100.5.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- DENVER is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 107.9, OPPONENT 99.5.
-- TORONTO is 23-6 UNDER (+16.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 93.6, OPPONENT 91.5.
-- PHILADELPHIA is 12-26 (-16.6 Units) against the 1rst half line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 45.5, OPPONENT 48.7.
-- PHILADELPHIA is 23-8 OVER (+14.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 52.8, OPPONENT 57.8.
-- DWANE CASEY is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season as the coach of TORONTO.
The average score was CASEY 94.4, OPPONENT 90.1.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MILWAUKEE) - cold team - having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, revenging a loss versus opponent, off 2 covers where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog.
(66-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (90.4%, +51.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -204.3
The average score in these games was: Team 103, Opponent 91.5 (Average point differential = +11.5)
The situation's record this season is: (8-0, +8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-6, +18.4 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (208-54, +44.5 units).
-- Play On - Road underdogs of 10 or more points (PHILADELPHIA) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record.
(83-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.5%, +53.3 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (62-50 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.7
The average score in these games was: Team 102.4, Opponent 101.2 (Average point differential = +1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 56 (51.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (25-7).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (48-15).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (188-132).
-- Play Against - Favorites of 10 or more points (GOLDEN STATE) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more, after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games.
(29-7 since 1996.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (4-33)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 11.8
The average score in these games was: Team 93.6, Opponent 101.7 (Average point differential = -8.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (35.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-5).
-- Play Over - Any team (HOUSTON) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.
(26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 195.5
The average score in these games was: Team 103.2, Opponent 98.7 (Total points scored = 201.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (57.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (104-62).
-- Play On - Underdogs versus the 1rst half line (DENVER) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team, in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%).
(32-9 since 1996.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.2, Opponent 48.6 (Average first half point differential = -0.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
-- Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (DENVER) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's).
(140-58 since 1996.) (70.7%, +76.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.6, Opponent 47.6 (Total first half points scored = 95.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-6).
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Betting News & Notes Week #16
We are nearing the NBA’s All-Star break and just passed the midway point in terms of games played - also known as hunting season when it comes to NBA head coaches on the hot seat and we have already lost one coach in Detroit's former bench boss Maurice Cheeks. Sometimes a hot seat can push a coach and his team, giving them added line value. Other times, players quit on their coach and it burns everything to the ground – including your bankroll.
StatSystems Sports Systems Analyst William Stillman looks at four coaches who may be getting the pink slip sooner rather than later. And the one big thing these guys all have in common is a sub .500 ATS record, with the four teams below combining to go 85-112-1 ATS - covering just 43 percent of the time.
•Mike Woodson (New York Knicks)
Record: 19-30 SU, 20-29 ATS
If you believe reports circulating over the last couple of days, the time on Mike Woodson’s tenure could be over before next week's All-Star break. The New York Daily News says owner James Dolan met with Woodson following the team’s loss to the Portland Trail Blazers and a recent loss to the Milwaukee Bucks may have been the final nail for a team floundering at 19-30 with the league’s second-highest payroll.
•Mike Brown (Cleveland Cavaliers)
Record: 16-33 SU, 19-30 ATS
When you’re starting point guard is asked if the team has quit on you, it doesn’t bode well for your future. Neither does a team allowing 102.5 points per game, including 119 and 124 points back-to-back, when you have hung your career on being a defensive guru. Now that the GM who hired you has been fired, no one can imagine Mike Brown’s second-stint in charge of the Cavs ending in anything but tears (for him).
•Brett Brown (Philadelphia 76ers)
Record: 15-35 SU, 20-30 ATS
By the sounds of things, Brown may quit before he is fired after telling reporters the 76ers rebuilding process is, “much harder," and “something that I didn't judge properly.” There’s no doubt Philly is in tank mode but those recent comments may have Sixers brass rethinking their choice of a head coach who will help them rebuild in a very unforgiving market.
•Marc Jackson (Golden State Warriors)
Record: 30-20 SU, 22-26-2 ATS
Jackson has overachieved as head coach of Golden State until now. But this NBA gig is all about “what have you done for me lately”. After spending money in the offseason and looking like a contender early on, the Warriors are now falling down the Western Conference playoff picture. It would be surprising to see the club dump such a popular coach but it wouldn’t be smart to bet against it if the team keeps sliding.
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Monday's Match-ups
#701 DENVER @ #702 INDIANA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, Altitude (Denver), FSN Indiana Line: Pacers -10.5, Total: 199.5) - The Indiana Pacers' killer instinct went missing Sunday in Orlando, but they'll try to rediscover it when they return home to host the Denver Nuggets on Monday. The Pacers, who were unable to put away the lowly Magic in a 93-92 road loss, are looking to avoid losing consecutive games for only the second time this season. They're also trying to avoid their sixth straight loss to the Nuggets, including a 109-96 defeat on Jan. 25 in Denver.
The Pacers suffered from a rare lapse of effort in the second half at Orlando and were outscored 29-18 in the final quarter. "We got a little loose and we just didn't play the game the right way down the stretch," forward David West told the Indianapolis Star. "If you don't do that, you'll get beat." The Nuggets, who are five games behind eighth-place Golden State in the Western Conference, have lost two straight and seven of their last 11.
•ABOUT THE NUGGETS (24-25 SU, 22-27-0 ATS): Denver is likely to be without point guard Ty Lawson (broken rib), which hurts at the offensive end, but the Nuggets' bigger problems are on defense. They just gave up 126 points in a loss to a Detroit team that fired its coach a day later and have allowed 100 or more points in seven straight games and 12 of the last 13. Randy Foye, who slid from shooting guard to the point after Lawson's injury Saturday, has put up big numbers lately with an average of 17.2 points over his past 17 games, and Denver will need him to continue that production while Lawson is sidelined.
•ABOUT THE PACERS (39-11 SU, 31-19-0 ATS): The sky isn't falling in Indiana, as the loss to Orlando snapped a four-game winning streak and the Pacers still own the best record in the NBA. A silver lining from Sunday's loss was Paul George breaking out of a mini slump with 27 points, just the second time in the last eight games he has topped 20. Guard Lance Stephenson has been nursing a sore back but played 40 minutes against the Magic, so his status could be in question in the second game of a back-to-back.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Nuggets have won seven of the last nine meetings in Indianapolis and 15 of the last 18 overall against the Pacers.... The Pacers are an NBA-best 24-2 at home, where they allow just 85.8 points per game.... Denver C J.J. Hickson has recorded double-doubles in 15 of his last 26 games.... Indiana is 42-26 versus the spread versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 36% of their attempts over the last two seasons.... The Nuggets are 14-4 against the spread versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DENVER covered the spread 560 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 440 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA won the game straight up 701 times, while DENVER won 273 times. In 1000 simulated games, 530 games went under the total, while 470 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, DENVER covered the first half line 547 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 423 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 515 games went under first half total, while 447 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DENVER is 17-14 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1996.
--DENVER is 17-16 straight up against INDIANA since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--DENVER is 18-14 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANA since 1996.
--16 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Indiana.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Under is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Under is 6-1-1 in Pacers last 8 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
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#703 NEW ORLEANS @ #704 TORONTO
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, FSN New Orleans, TSN2 (Toronto) - Line: Raptors -7, Total: 193.5) - Two of the NBA's most promising young big men do battle Monday night in Toronto when Jonas Valanciunas and the Raptors entertain Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans. Davis is the superior of the two at this point in his career, but his Pelicans are coming off a 93-81 loss in Brooklyn on Sunday. Valanciunas' Raptors are in a better spot, leading the Atlantic Division despite coming off back-to-back losses to Sacramento and the Clippers.
Toronto reaches the 50-game plateau with a somewhat comfortable 2 1/2-game lead over the Nets in the Atlantic. The Raptors finished 2-3 on their five-game Western Conference road trip, and now enjoy one of their cushiest stretches of the year with 11 of their next 15 games coming at the Air Canada Centre. That stretch begins with Monday's visit from a New Orleans team that has cracked 100 points just once in its previous six games.
•ABOUT THE PELICANS (22-28 SU, 23-25-2 ATS): The way that Davis has played so far this season, it's easy to forget that he's just 20 years old. The first-time All-Star is one of only four players averaging better than 20 points and 10 rebounds and leads the league in blocked shots with 133. "He uses all of his abilities to his advantage out there on the basketball court," Raptors forward Patrick Patterson told the Toronto Sun. "He's lanky, can finish above the rim, excellent rebounder and his scoring ability has gotten so much better."
•ABOUT THE RAPTORS (26-24 SU, 30-20-0 ATS): While Davis is getting all the headlines - and rightfully so - Valanciunas has been a solid second-year player in his own right. The 21-year-old will participate in the Rising Stars game during All-Star Weekend, marking the culmination of his emergence as a strong two-way player in the rapidly improving Toronto lineup. "He deserves it," Raptors head coach Dwane Casey told the Star. "We're excited for Jonas. he's an up-and-coming rising star in this league."
•PREGAME NOTES: Toronto has won the last four meetings dating back to early 2011.... Davis averages 13.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in two career games against the Raptors.... New Orleans is just 3-9 in the tail end of back-to-backs.... The Raptors are 15-5 against the spread versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 76% of their attempts this season.... The Pelicans are 4-13 versus the spread in road games second half of the season over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the spread 594 times, while NEW ORLEANS covered the spread 371 times. *EDGE against the spread =TORONTO. In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO won the game straight up 764 times, while NEW ORLEANS won 213 times. In 1000 simulated games, 531 games went over the total, while 469 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the first half line 593 times, while NEW ORLEANS covered the first half line 407 times. *EDGE against first half line =TORONTO. In 1000 simulated games, 501 games went over first half total, while 499 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEW ORLEANS is 24-22 against the spread versus TORONTO since 1996.
--NEW ORLEANS is 27-21 straight up against TORONTO since 1996.
--26 of 45 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--TORONTO is 24-22 versus the first half line when playing against NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--23 of 44 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Pelicans are 0-7 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Toronto.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
--Pelicans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Pelicans are 1-4-1 ATS L6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Raptors are 6-1 ATS L7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Raptors are 6-1 ATS L7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
--Over is 7-1 in Raptors last 8 Monday games.
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#705 SAN ANTONIO @ #706 DETROIT
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, FSN Southwest (San Antonio), FSN Detroit - Line: Spurs -4, Total: 205.5) - The Detroit Pistons have won four of their last six games but still went ahead and fired coach Maurice Cheeks on Sunday and assistant coach John Loyer is expected to lead the team into Monday’s home game against the San Antonio Spurs. Cheeks was 21-29 in his first season in Detroit and the 50-game stint is the fifth-shortest for an NBA coach in the last quarter-century. The Pistons are ninth in the Eastern Conference, a half-game behind Charlotte for the final playoff spot.
Detroit received big efforts from point guard Brandon Jennings (season-high 35 points to go with 12 assists) and forward Josh Smith (30 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists) in Cheeks’ final game, a 126-109 win over Denver. San Antonio has won four of its last five games and is 3-1 to start the nine-game rodeo road trip. The Spurs may not know until close to game time whether point guard Tony Parker (back) will be available. Parker missed a game last week with back issues and then sat out the final quarter of Saturday’s 104-100 victory over Charlotte.
•ABOUT THE SPURS (37-14 SU, 24-27-0 ATS): San Antonio has been decimated by injuries, and one of the players taking advantage of the situation is 25-year-old guard Patty Mills. With Parker ailing, Mills scored 18 of his season-best 32 points in the fourth quarter and was 10-of-13 shooting overall. “His motor is always going,” San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich said afterward. “He doesn’t need me to do anything to get him going. He’s a competitor. He’s played on the Australian Olympic team for I don’t know how many years. He’s a competitor. He’s not impressed with the NBA. He just comes and plays.”
•ABOUT THE PISTONS (21-29 SU, 22-27-1 ATS): Detroit has won its last two games by an average of 16.5 points and posted a season best for points in Saturday’s victory over Denver, which served to make it odd timing for Cheeks to be fired. Owner Tom Gores released a statement that contained the following comment: “Our record does not reflect our talent and we simply need a change.” Gores didn’t feel the team was making enough progress with Cheeks at the helm despite four double-digit victories over the last six games. Published reports point to the Pistons making a run at Lionel Hollins to see if the former Memphis coach is interested in the gig.
•PREGAME NOTES: Detroit has won six of its last 10 home games against Spurs.... San Antonio hopes to have C Tiago Splitter (calf) and G Marco Belinelli (back) for the contest.... Jennings is averaging 25.1 points over his last nine games.... The Spurs are 3-13 against the spread versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.... Detroit is 39-20 versus the spread in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting less than 21 free throws/game since 1996.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 515 times, while DETROIT covered the spread 466 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 614 times, while DETROIT won 360 times. In 1000 simulated games, 551 games went over the total, while 449 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 507 times, while DETROIT covered the first half line 445 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 513 games went over first half total, while 487 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DETROIT is 20-18 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 23-16 straight up against DETROIT since 1996.
--20 of 37 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--DETROIT is 19-19 versus the first half line when playing against SAN ANTONIO since 1996.
--19 of 36 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Spurs are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Detroit.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Detroit.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 Monday games.
--Under is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 after allowing 100 points or more.
--Over is 8-1 in Spurs last 9 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more.
--Over is 9-1 in Pistons last 10 Monday games.
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#707 HOUSTON @ #708 MINNESOTA
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, NBA TV, CSN Houston, FSN North (Minnesota) - Line: Rockets -4.5, Total: 208) - The Houston Rockets are shooting for a season-high sixth straight win as they head to Minnesota to take on the Timberwolves on Monday. The Rockets survived a lackluster effort in a 101-95 win at Milwaukee on Saturday to move a season-high 17 games above .500. The Timberwolves are headed in the other direction, having lost three straight and five of six to slip six games behind eighth-place Golden State in the Western Conference.
Even as they've matched their hottest streak of the season, the Rockets have been disappointed with their inconsistency, especially their difficulty in putting away the lowly Bucks. "We're too up and down right now," guard Jeremy Lin told reporters. "It would be nice for us to build leads and really dominate from start to finish." Minnesota knows the feeling, as the Timberwolves have bobbed just below the .500 mark for most of the season and are in danger of suffering a season-high fourth consecutive loss.
•ABOUT THE ROCKETS (34-17 SU, 26-23-2 ATS): Houston has a ton of offensive firepower and has shown it off recently. Dwight Howard has been dominant of late, recording double-doubles in eight of the past 10 games and averaging 22.2 points and 11.7 rebounds over that span, and leading scorer James Harden has scored at least 22 points in his first three games back from a two-game absence with a bruised thumb. Center Omer Asik (thigh, knee) returned to the court against Milwaukee in his first action since Dec. 2 and recorded five rebounds in 11 minutes.
•ABOUT THE TIMBERWOLVES (24-27 SU, 26-25-0 ATS): Minnesota has been without power forward Kevin Love (25.6 points, 13.3 rebounds) for two of the past three games, further depleting a once-dominant frontcourt that is also missing center Nikola Pekovic (ankle). Playing without the two big men — and shooting guard Kevin Martin (thumb) — completely changes the team's dynamic and places more of the scoring burden on defensive-minded players like Corey Brewer and Ricky Rubio. Love, Martin and Pekovic combined for 62.6 points per game.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Rockets are averaging 108.6 points and shooting 50.8 percent from the field during their winning streak... The Timberwolves are 1-12 in games decided by four points or fewer.... Houston has won 12 straight games when scoring at least 100 points.... Minnesota is 1-10 versus the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.... The Rockets are 11-1 against the spread after four straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the spread 677 times, while HOUSTON covered the spread 323 times. *EDGE against the spread =MINNESOTA. In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA won the game straight up 566 times, while HOUSTON won 410 times. In 1000 simulated games, 539 games went under the total, while 441 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the first half line 634 times, while HOUSTON covered the first half line 366 times. *EDGE against first half line =MINNESOTA. In 1000 simulated games, 512 games went under first half total, while 460 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--HOUSTON is 34-29 against the spread versus MINNESOTA since 1996.
--HOUSTON is 40-27 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--34 of 62 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--HOUSTON is 32-31 versus the first half line when playing against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--37 of 63 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Rockets are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Rockets are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Minnesota.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more.
--Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more.
--Under is 4-0-1 in Timberwolves last 5 Monday games.
--Under is 6-0 in Timberwolves last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Under is 4-0-1 in Timberwolves last 5 after allowing 100 points or more.
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#709 BOSTON @ #710 MILWAUKEE
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, CSN (Boston), FSN Wisconsin (Milwaukee) - Line: Celtics -2, Total: 191) - The Boston Celtics will look to get back on track after a woeful shooting performance in Sunday's loss to Dallas when they face host Milwaukee on Monday. Boston shot less than 30 percent for most of the game against the Mavericks, finishing at 35.9 percent thanks to a late run that masked how bad a showing it was. While the lowly Bucks might seem a cure-all for most teams looking to rebound, there are no guarantees, as Boston is the only team Milwaukee has beaten more than once this season.
The Bucks have held the dubious distinction of the NBA's worst record nearly all season and have yet to put together even a two-game winning streak. Milwaukee's latest win came last Monday, edging New York 101-98 but it has since dropped two straight and may be forced to face the Celtics without center Larry Sanders, who exited Saturday's loss with blurred vision after an inadvertent elbow from James Harden on a contested rebound attempt. The Bucks have been plagued by injury and illness all season but guard O.J. Mayo, who has missed eight of the last games battling the flu and conditioning issues, won't blame the team's performance on any of those woes, telling reporters, "It's definitely not an excuse for us not winning."
•ABOUT THE CELTICS (18-34 SU, 25-26-1 ATS): Boston will face the Bucks without the services of point guard Rajon Rondo, who will sit on a scheduled day of rest after nearly notching a triple-double Sunday against Dallas. Rondo, who has averaged 14 points, 11 assists and 7.7 rebounds in his last three games, is no longer on a minutes restriction as he eases his way back into the rotation, still recovering from last February's knee surgery but will not play in both ends of back-to-backs according to coach Brad Stevens. "I think erring on the side of caution," Stevens told the Boston Herald recently, "is probably the right move."
•ABOUT THE BUCKS (9-41 SU, 19-31-0 ATS): The timing of Sanders' injury couldn't have been worse for the player or the team, coming one game after the fourth-year pro notched a career-high 25 points and a season-best 15 rebounds in a loss to Denver Wednesday. Frontcourt partner John Henson stepped up in Sanders' absence with his best game in nearly a month, finishing with 14 points and 10 rebounds in 41 minutes. Mayo, who is eying a return "before the All-Star break", specifically praised the play of Sanders and several other young Bucks in forecasting a bright future for the team, telling the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, "As long as you see those pieces are getting better, it's promising."
•PREGAME NOTES: Milwaukee has beaten Boston in five of the last seven meetings after the Celtics had run off six straight in the head-to-head series.... The Bucks were without Mayo, G Luke Ridnour (back), and Fs Caron Butler (ankle), Ersan Ilyasova (back) and Ekpe Udoh (ankle) against Houston. All are day-to-day, along with Sanders, with the exception of Butler, who is out indefinitely with a high ankle sprain.... Rondo recorded his 4,000th career assist on Sunday, finishing the game with 4,010 for his career, which ranks sixth all-time in Celtics history and is 19th among active players.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MILWAUKEE covered the spread 614 times, while BOSTON covered the spread 361 times. *EDGE against the spread =MILWAUKEE. In 1000 simulated games, MILWAUKEE won the game straight up 552 times, while BOSTON won 409 times. In 1000 simulated games, 538 games went under the total, while 446 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, MILWAUKEE covered the first half line 591 times, while BOSTON covered the first half line 378 times. *EDGE against first half line =MILWAUKEE. In 1000 simulated games, 552 games went under first half total, while 448 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MILWAUKEE is 38-24 against the spread versus BOSTON since 1996.
--MILWAUKEE is 35-29 straight up against BOSTON since 1996.
--31 of 62 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--MILWAUKEE is 31-30 versus the first half line when playing against BOSTON since 1996.
--33 of 62 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Celtics are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 13-6-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
--Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 Monday games.
--Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Over is 7-1 in Bucks last 8 Monday games.
--Over is 6-1 in Bucks L7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
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#711 PHILADELPHIA @ #712 GOLDEN STATE
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, CSN Philadelphia, CSN Bay Area (Golden State) - Line: Warriors -14.5, Total: 214.5) - The Golden State Warriors have been experiencing an inconsistent stretch, while the Philadelphia 76ers have just been consistently bad. The Warriors host the 76ers on Monday, hoping to put an uneven 6-8 stretch behind them after losing 122-109 to the Phoenix Suns on Saturday. Philadelphia has lost six straight outings and suffered one of the worst defeats in franchise history, 123-78 to the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday.
The 76ers trailed by as many as 56 points in the loss to the Clippers – a margin that also happens to be the same as the worst loss in team annals, 149-93 to the Seattle SuperSonics on March 6, 1993. Philadelphia trailed 30-5 just past the midway point of the opening quarter and was 8-of-52 shooting in the first half before finishing at 27 percent. Golden State expects to be without forward David Lee (shoulder, hip) for the third straight game and center Andrew Bogut (shoulder) is questionable after also missing the last two games.
•ABOUT THE 76ERS (15-37 SU, 20-32-0 ATS): Philadelphia was uncompetitive from the opening tip while being humiliated by the Clippers. The 76ers shot just 15.4 percent from the field in the first half – the lowest percentage by any team in any half all season – and coach Brett Brown turned the focus toward stemming the embarrassment. “We hoped to go compete at a level where we could win a quarter,” Brown said of his halftime message to his squad. “Everybody’s got pride and you want to represent your team, and coach your team, well. You don’t feel good sitting on the sideline as that is unfolding but it did and we’ll move on.”
•ABOUT THE WARRIORS (30-21 SU, 22-27-2 ATS): Veteran Andre Iguodala had his best outing of the season when he scored 32 points against his former team back in November. Iguodala spent eight seasons with the 76ers before being dealt to Denver prior to last season and he was on fire with a career-best seven 3-pointers in a 110-90 victory. He struggled against the 76ers in two outings with the Nuggets last season – scoring 24 total points – but was much more at ease in this year’s first game against his former club. Iguodala is averaging just 9.6 points and the Warriors are 9-4 when he scores in double digits.
•PREGAME NOTES: Golden State G Stephen Curry had 18 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds when the Warriors posted the win in Philadelphia on Nov. 4.... Sixers G Tony Wroten scored 21 against the Clippers and is averaging 18.2 points over the last five games.... Warriors F Harrison Barnes scored 23 points against the Suns for his fourth 20-point performance of the campaign.... The Sixers are 13-26 versus the spread when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last three seasons.... Golden State is 10-1 against the spread versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE covered the spread 605 times, while PHILADELPHIA covered the spread 395 times. *EDGE against the spread =GOLDEN STATE. In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE won the game straight up 870 times, while PHILADELPHIA won 111 times. In 1000 simulated games, 816 games went under the total, while 184 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE covered the first half line 543 times, while PHILADELPHIA covered the first half line 457 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 727 games went under first half total, while 248 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GOLDEN STATE is 18-15 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA since 1996.
--PHILADELPHIA is 17-16 straight up against GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--GOLDEN STATE is 19-13 versus the first half line when playing against PHILADELPHIA since 1996.
--20 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--76ers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--76ers are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Los Angeles.
--Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 3-0-1 in 76ers last 4 games following a ATS loss.
--Under is 3-0-1 in 76ers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--Clippers are 1-5 ATS L6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
--Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 Sunday games.
--Over is 8-0 in Clippers L8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
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The NBA system bet(s) for February 10th are:
New Orleans bet - Confirmed official bet
Philadelphia bet - Confirmed official bet
Denver [C] bet - Note: Denver's best player, Ty Lawson, is injured
and currently listed as unlikely to play in the game (
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nba/1497/ty-lawson). Make sure to
check the latest injury update before putting down any action. The
system play is official only if it passes the injury filter.
===================================
Remember to bet on the point spread (handicap line)
- Remember to purchase 3 points for the team you're betting on.
- If your team is still a favorite after buying 3 points, then
bet on the money line. If the team is a big favorite resulting in
odds that too unfavorable for you to be comfortable with, then you
can either optionally skip the series, or bet on the point spread
plus 3 points as normal, but do not continue betting on the series
if your team wins the game but the bet does not cover.
Always consider the injury and the best/worst road team filters.
Check the injuries to ensure your team's best player isn't out.
I will always make my best effort to notify you of game-changing
injuries whenever I am aware of them to ensure that you don't make
wagers on team that don't pass the injury filter. However, I cannot
make guarantees that I will always be able to be on top of every
single injury, every game, every day, at all times. Some teams may
hold off on releasing relevant injury information until much later
in the day. A bet will be unofficial if it does not pass the filters
of the system. Ultimately as a bettor, I always strongly encourage
that if there's any uncertainty about the status of your team's best
player for a game that you always check on final injury updates.
Here's a recap of our great run this season:
11/10 Washington won [A]
11/11 Detroit won [A]
11/15 Brooklyn won
11/15 Portland won [A]
11/20 Boston won [C]
11/22 Phoenix won [A] *Unofficial bet (injury filter)
11/22 Chicago won
11/26 LA Lakers won [A]
11/29 New York Knicks won [C]
11/29 New Orleans won [A]
12/1 Indiana won [A]
12/1 Denver won [A]
12/3 Toronto won [A]
12/14 Portland won [A]
12/18 Utah won
12/20 Sacramento lost [C]
12/20 Toronto won [A]
12/25 Miami won [A]
12/29 Golden State won [A]
12/29 Philadelphia won [A]
12/31 Milwaukee won [A]
1/2 NY Knicks won [A]
1/3 New Orleans won [A]
1/8 Boston won [C]
1/11 Orlando lost [C] *Note: Worst road record
1/11 Houston won
1/16 Brooklyn won
1/17 LA Clippers won [A]
1/20 Dallas won [A]
1/20 Indiana won [A]
1/24 Washington won [A]
1/26 Phoenix won [A]
1/29 Charlotte won [A]
1/29 Oklahoma City won [A]
1/29 Chicago won [A]
1/31 Toronto won [A]
2/5 Miami won
2/5 Portland won [A]
2/9 Dallas won [A]
2/10 Philadelphia series pending result
2/10 New Orleans series pending result
2/10 Denver series pending result
2/11 Sacramento series pending result
Good luck,
The Sports Betting Champ
New Orleans bet - Confirmed official bet
Philadelphia bet - Confirmed official bet
Denver [C] bet - Note: Denver's best player, Ty Lawson, is injured
and currently listed as unlikely to play in the game (
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nba/1497/ty-lawson). Make sure to
check the latest injury update before putting down any action. The
system play is official only if it passes the injury filter.
===================================
Remember to bet on the point spread (handicap line)
- Remember to purchase 3 points for the team you're betting on.
- If your team is still a favorite after buying 3 points, then
bet on the money line. If the team is a big favorite resulting in
odds that too unfavorable for you to be comfortable with, then you
can either optionally skip the series, or bet on the point spread
plus 3 points as normal, but do not continue betting on the series
if your team wins the game but the bet does not cover.
Always consider the injury and the best/worst road team filters.
Check the injuries to ensure your team's best player isn't out.
I will always make my best effort to notify you of game-changing
injuries whenever I am aware of them to ensure that you don't make
wagers on team that don't pass the injury filter. However, I cannot
make guarantees that I will always be able to be on top of every
single injury, every game, every day, at all times. Some teams may
hold off on releasing relevant injury information until much later
in the day. A bet will be unofficial if it does not pass the filters
of the system. Ultimately as a bettor, I always strongly encourage
that if there's any uncertainty about the status of your team's best
player for a game that you always check on final injury updates.
Here's a recap of our great run this season:
11/10 Washington won [A]
11/11 Detroit won [A]
11/15 Brooklyn won
11/15 Portland won [A]
11/20 Boston won [C]
11/22 Phoenix won [A] *Unofficial bet (injury filter)
11/22 Chicago won
11/26 LA Lakers won [A]
11/29 New York Knicks won [C]
11/29 New Orleans won [A]
12/1 Indiana won [A]
12/1 Denver won [A]
12/3 Toronto won [A]
12/14 Portland won [A]
12/18 Utah won
12/20 Sacramento lost [C]
12/20 Toronto won [A]
12/25 Miami won [A]
12/29 Golden State won [A]
12/29 Philadelphia won [A]
12/31 Milwaukee won [A]
1/2 NY Knicks won [A]
1/3 New Orleans won [A]
1/8 Boston won [C]
1/11 Orlando lost [C] *Note: Worst road record
1/11 Houston won
1/16 Brooklyn won
1/17 LA Clippers won [A]
1/20 Dallas won [A]
1/20 Indiana won [A]
1/24 Washington won [A]
1/26 Phoenix won [A]
1/29 Charlotte won [A]
1/29 Oklahoma City won [A]
1/29 Chicago won [A]
1/31 Toronto won [A]
2/5 Miami won
2/5 Portland won [A]
2/9 Dallas won [A]
2/10 Philadelphia series pending result
2/10 New Orleans series pending result
2/10 Denver series pending result
2/11 Sacramento series pending result
Good luck,
The Sports Betting Champ
DG
500* - Toronto Raptors -7
Hammer it,
David Guyen
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james jones syndicate plays-5-10
500* - Toronto Raptors -7
Hammer it,
David Guyen
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leo carosielli scammer
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january i paid 200.00
jan----8-23 big time loser
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james jones syndicate plays-5-10
THE REAL DEAL
Well I hope your as excited as we are to kick off our 2014 Campaign.
For all of our new members. Our plays are rated under 2 classes.
1st Class is 500* This is a SOLID PLAY
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Lets kick off our campaign with 2 SOLID 500* Plays !!
PLEASE GET THESE PLAYS IN ASAP AS LINES ARE CHANGING !!!
NCAAB 500* - Florida State OVER 116.5
NCAAB 500* - Furman +13.5
Sports Picks
Founded in 2009
Lifetime Record - 59% ATS OVER 1200 Wins UNDER 800 Losses
Founded in 2009
Lifetime Record - 59% ATS OVER 1200 Wins UNDER 800 Losses
Well I hope your as excited as we are to kick off our 2014 Campaign.
For all of our new members. Our plays are rated under 2 classes.
1st Class is 500* This is a SOLID PLAY
2nd Class is 1000* This is our REAL DEAL PLAY ( VIP plays previously )
Lets kick off our campaign with 2 SOLID 500* Plays !!
PLEASE GET THESE PLAYS IN ASAP AS LINES ARE CHANGING !!!
NCAAB 500* - Florida State OVER 116.5
NCAAB 500* - Furman +13.5
Premium Picks for February 10th, 2014
2 Units: Virginia -11 9:00 PM EST
Premium Picks-34-25
SYNDICATE- 5-10
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james jones syndicate plays-5-10
2 Units: Virginia -11 9:00 PM EST
Premium Picks-34-25
SYNDICATE- 5-10
avoid this services
Scammer alert scammer alert
leo carosielli scammer
sending emails offering free trial
january i paid 200.00
jan----8-23 big time loser
DAN PENNER- COLD FOR 3 MONTHS
MOOSE PICKS COLD SINCE LAST YEAR
james jones syndicate plays-5-10
