NSA
CBB Connecticut @ Louisville 7:00 PM EST 20* Connecticut +7
CBB Texas @ Oklahoma St 9:00 PM EST 20* Oklahoma St +2
NBA Boston @ Washington 7:00 PM EST 20* Washington +4.5
NBA LA Lakers @ Memphis 8:00 PM EST 10* Memphis +2
NBA Charlotte @ Portland 10:00 PM EST 10* Charlotte +1.5
CBB Eastern Michigan @ Akron 7:00 PM EST 10* Akron -13
CBB Connecticut @ Louisville 7:00 PM EST 20* Connecticut +7
CBB Texas @ Oklahoma St 9:00 PM EST 20* Oklahoma St +2
NBA Boston @ Washington 7:00 PM EST 20* Washington +4.5
NBA LA Lakers @ Memphis 8:00 PM EST 10* Memphis +2
NBA Charlotte @ Portland 10:00 PM EST 10* Charlotte +1.5
CBB Eastern Michigan @ Akron 7:00 PM EST 10* Akron -13
Handicapper: Vernon Croy
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Boston Celtics @ Washington Wizards - Monday February 1, 2010 7:05 pm
Pick: 5 units ATS: Washington Wizards +4.5 (-110)
Take the Washington Wizards ATS, This pick falls into one of my top NBA systems and the Celtics are coming off a big 1 point loss at home against the Lakers last night. The Celtics are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall and they are also just 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. The Wizards are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team that has a road victorious record above .600 and the Celtics have been out-rebounded by an average of 6.6 rebounds per game over their last 3 games. Take the Wizards as my NBA Play for Monday.
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Boston Celtics @ Washington Wizards - Monday February 1, 2010 7:05 pm
Pick: 5 units ATS: Washington Wizards +4.5 (-110)
Take the Washington Wizards ATS, This pick falls into one of my top NBA systems and the Celtics are coming off a big 1 point loss at home against the Lakers last night. The Celtics are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall and they are also just 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. The Wizards are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team that has a road victorious record above .600 and the Celtics have been out-rebounded by an average of 6.6 rebounds per game over their last 3 games. Take the Wizards as my NBA Play for Monday.
SPORTS WAGERS
MEMPHIS +1.03 over L.A. Lakers
The Lakers have so much talent that even when they take a night off they’re still competitive but damn, this is the absolute best time the Grizzlies could’ve caught the Lakers. You see, the Lakers won’t have many big games all year long. They’ll have a few NBC Sunday games and a couple others on national holidays but other than that it’s just a process until the playoffs start. Now, after that nationally televised game yesterday in Boston in which Kobe hit a bucket with seven seconds remaining to win it, the Lakers will head to Memphis to conclude its seven game road trip. In other words, they really don’t give a flying f**k about this one. They wanted yesterday’s win badly, they accomplished their goal and thus, this game, one day after the win over the Celtics, is a big inconvenience before heading home. The Grizz will be waiting and they’ll be ready, as will the packed house. Memphis is extremely dangerous and you can triple that when the other team is not 100% focused. The Grizz is also coming off back-to-back losses, which should make them even hungrier. The Grizz is still 17-6 at home and after a horrible 1-8 start to the year (0-3 at home), they’ve since gone 24-13 overall and 17-3 at home. Play: Memphis +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
WASHINGTON +5/+1.72 over Boston
It’s hard to imagine the Wiz winning this game but one really has to question the C’s frame of mind after that heartbreaker yesterday. Boston was winning the whole way and lead by as many as seven with about four minutes remaining but could not close the deal. The Celtic bench was standing pretty much throughout the whole fourth quarter and the guys on the floor were focused and hand-slapping after every big play. In the end, the players walked off in disbelief and dejected because they really let this one get away. Boston has now dropped three in a row and six of eight and will head to Washington to play its fourth game in five nights. As much as it’s hard to imagine the Wiz knocking them off, it’s harder to envision the Celtics being into this one. They’re mentally and physically drained, they have the Heat on deck Wednesday and they’ll rebound at some point for sure but this small line suggests it won’t happen here. Play: Washington +4½ (Risking 1.05 units to win 1). Play: Washington +1.72 (Risking 2 units).
Charlotte +1.08 over PORTLAND
These teams that get on a road roll are just so tough to beat and after three successive road wins in Phoenix, Golden State and Sacramento, the Bobcats will get back to playing the style they’re much more comfortable with when they visit the Blazers and they must be feeling pretty good about their chances of winning. Charlotte is a tremendous defensive team and again, after playing the aforementioned trio of Sac, Golden State and Phoenix, this will appear in slow motion for them. One can’t help but admire the job the Trail Blazers are doing. This team has more heart and determination than just about anyone but that doesn’t change the fact they’re still undermanned and against the relentless defense they’ll see here, don’t expect Andre Miller to go off for another 50. Playing shorthanded is catching up to Portland, as they have just three wins in its last eight games and two of those wins came against Philly and Detroit. The Blazers are hanging in there and they’ll be better for it when they get some key bodies back. However, right now the Bobcats are feeling it and there’s no denying its chances to win another here is strong indeed. Play: Charlotte +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
EDMONTON +1.28 over Carolina
The Oilers prolonged funk, which has now reached 12 games, has the best chance of ending tonight than it has in a long time. Sure, the Canes are playing its best hockey of the year but that’s like saying Drew Carey can outrun Rosie O’Donnell. Fact is, this is not a good spot for the Canes after coming off its biggest win of the year on Saturday in which they beat the Blackhawks 4-2. Furthermore, they’ve lost 22 of its last 28 on the road and do not deserve this billing over anyone. Meanwhile, the Oilers are a desperate team in desperate need of a win and they just have to smell a bit of blood for this one. They’ve sunk low but a loss to the Canes would hurt as bad as any of the previous 12. They were whacked by the Flames on Saturday 6-1 and that ended the Flames nine-game losing streak. So, to recap, we have the Canes coming off its biggest win of the year playing an Oilers team coming off a 6-1 loss to its biggest rival. The Canes are playing for nothing while the Oilers will be playing for whatever pride they have left. Play: Edmonton +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
MEMPHIS +1.03 over L.A. Lakers
The Lakers have so much talent that even when they take a night off they’re still competitive but damn, this is the absolute best time the Grizzlies could’ve caught the Lakers. You see, the Lakers won’t have many big games all year long. They’ll have a few NBC Sunday games and a couple others on national holidays but other than that it’s just a process until the playoffs start. Now, after that nationally televised game yesterday in Boston in which Kobe hit a bucket with seven seconds remaining to win it, the Lakers will head to Memphis to conclude its seven game road trip. In other words, they really don’t give a flying f**k about this one. They wanted yesterday’s win badly, they accomplished their goal and thus, this game, one day after the win over the Celtics, is a big inconvenience before heading home. The Grizz will be waiting and they’ll be ready, as will the packed house. Memphis is extremely dangerous and you can triple that when the other team is not 100% focused. The Grizz is also coming off back-to-back losses, which should make them even hungrier. The Grizz is still 17-6 at home and after a horrible 1-8 start to the year (0-3 at home), they’ve since gone 24-13 overall and 17-3 at home. Play: Memphis +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
WASHINGTON +5/+1.72 over Boston
It’s hard to imagine the Wiz winning this game but one really has to question the C’s frame of mind after that heartbreaker yesterday. Boston was winning the whole way and lead by as many as seven with about four minutes remaining but could not close the deal. The Celtic bench was standing pretty much throughout the whole fourth quarter and the guys on the floor were focused and hand-slapping after every big play. In the end, the players walked off in disbelief and dejected because they really let this one get away. Boston has now dropped three in a row and six of eight and will head to Washington to play its fourth game in five nights. As much as it’s hard to imagine the Wiz knocking them off, it’s harder to envision the Celtics being into this one. They’re mentally and physically drained, they have the Heat on deck Wednesday and they’ll rebound at some point for sure but this small line suggests it won’t happen here. Play: Washington +4½ (Risking 1.05 units to win 1). Play: Washington +1.72 (Risking 2 units).
Charlotte +1.08 over PORTLAND
These teams that get on a road roll are just so tough to beat and after three successive road wins in Phoenix, Golden State and Sacramento, the Bobcats will get back to playing the style they’re much more comfortable with when they visit the Blazers and they must be feeling pretty good about their chances of winning. Charlotte is a tremendous defensive team and again, after playing the aforementioned trio of Sac, Golden State and Phoenix, this will appear in slow motion for them. One can’t help but admire the job the Trail Blazers are doing. This team has more heart and determination than just about anyone but that doesn’t change the fact they’re still undermanned and against the relentless defense they’ll see here, don’t expect Andre Miller to go off for another 50. Playing shorthanded is catching up to Portland, as they have just three wins in its last eight games and two of those wins came against Philly and Detroit. The Blazers are hanging in there and they’ll be better for it when they get some key bodies back. However, right now the Bobcats are feeling it and there’s no denying its chances to win another here is strong indeed. Play: Charlotte +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
EDMONTON +1.28 over Carolina
The Oilers prolonged funk, which has now reached 12 games, has the best chance of ending tonight than it has in a long time. Sure, the Canes are playing its best hockey of the year but that’s like saying Drew Carey can outrun Rosie O’Donnell. Fact is, this is not a good spot for the Canes after coming off its biggest win of the year on Saturday in which they beat the Blackhawks 4-2. Furthermore, they’ve lost 22 of its last 28 on the road and do not deserve this billing over anyone. Meanwhile, the Oilers are a desperate team in desperate need of a win and they just have to smell a bit of blood for this one. They’ve sunk low but a loss to the Canes would hurt as bad as any of the previous 12. They were whacked by the Flames on Saturday 6-1 and that ended the Flames nine-game losing streak. So, to recap, we have the Canes coming off its biggest win of the year playing an Oilers team coming off a 6-1 loss to its biggest rival. The Canes are playing for nothing while the Oilers will be playing for whatever pride they have left. Play: Edmonton +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
Insider Angles
The visiting team has won outright in the last two meetings between the Western Michigan Broncos and the Buffalo Bulls, and the road team is also 6-2 against the spread in the last eight encounters, and we look for those trends to continue Monday night.
These teams have similar records, with Western Michigan at 11-9 and home standing Buffalo at 11-7, and they have similar numbers offensively, but it is the difference in the defenses that sets the Broncos apart here and gives them a chance at the upset
Starting with the raw numbers, the Broncos are allowing 66.7 points per game on 40.7 percent shooting vs. Division I opponents, while the Bulls are allowing 73.2 points per game while allowing similar foes to shoot three full percentage points higher at 43.7 percent.
When we shift our focus to the Pomeroy Ratings, the difference becomes more apparent, as Western Michigan has an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of .972 points per possession, while Buffalo has a 1.022 defensive PPP, which ranks 207 our of 347 Division I schools. The Bulls have been downright brutal defensively in their last four games, allowing 83, 75, 99 and 89 points respectively.
Buffalo simply cannot be trusted laying points the way their defense is surrendering points right now, so we will take the points with the much steadier Western Michigan defense in this spot.
Monday Free NCAA Pick: Western Michigan +4
The visiting team has won outright in the last two meetings between the Western Michigan Broncos and the Buffalo Bulls, and the road team is also 6-2 against the spread in the last eight encounters, and we look for those trends to continue Monday night.
These teams have similar records, with Western Michigan at 11-9 and home standing Buffalo at 11-7, and they have similar numbers offensively, but it is the difference in the defenses that sets the Broncos apart here and gives them a chance at the upset
Starting with the raw numbers, the Broncos are allowing 66.7 points per game on 40.7 percent shooting vs. Division I opponents, while the Bulls are allowing 73.2 points per game while allowing similar foes to shoot three full percentage points higher at 43.7 percent.
When we shift our focus to the Pomeroy Ratings, the difference becomes more apparent, as Western Michigan has an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of .972 points per possession, while Buffalo has a 1.022 defensive PPP, which ranks 207 our of 347 Division I schools. The Bulls have been downright brutal defensively in their last four games, allowing 83, 75, 99 and 89 points respectively.
Buffalo simply cannot be trusted laying points the way their defense is surrendering points right now, so we will take the points with the much steadier Western Michigan defense in this spot.
Monday Free NCAA Pick: Western Michigan +4
Andre Gomes
MIA / MIL Over 189
Pace: 95.4 (18th of 30)
Offense: 103.3 (20th of 30)
Defense: 103.6 (12th of 30)
Miami
Pace: 91.5 (28th of 30)
Offense: 106.2 (11th of 30)
Defense: 105.3 (18th of 30)
This is a home-home series as both teams have played against each other last Saturday and so it's crucial for our analysis to understand what happened in that game and in what this contest will be different.
The Bucks have defeated the Heat 95-84 and at the break they were already leading 56-38 so we can say that they didn't have any problem to beat Miami. I was expecting such outcome as I had a play with the Bucks and in my write up I said the following: "Even though it was an easy game [against the Pistons], the Heat didn't have good news after the game, as PG Mario Chalmers got injured in the game and he is doubtful for tonight and even Wade and O'Neal are banged up for tonight's contest."
The letdown happened for the Heat as they ended the game by shooting only 37.2% from the field and 6-22 behind the arc - only 27.3%. Dwayne's Wade 6-20 (.300) shooting performance was his second worst of the season. To make things even worse, Wade was in foul trouble, picking up his fifth foul midway through the third quarter and going to the bench until returning with 7:22 remaining in the game. Miami has been a terrible team in back to backs as their offense simply disappears. Note that Wade is shooting 43.1% FG in b2b games vs. 46.6% for the season or/and Jermaine O'Neal is shooting 48.0% FG in b2b games vs. 54% for the season.
Bottom line, a relatively poor defensive team of the Bucks was able to hold the Heat to just 84 points and even after the game rookie Brandon Jennings praised the team defensive performance: ``I guess we got the `D-Wade stopper' on the team right now,'' - He was talking about Charlie Bell.
However let's see if the Bucks will be able to stop the Heat tonight as they have a better spot and usually they are a terrific offensive team coming of a loss. I remember that the Over is 8-1 in the Heat last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Dwayne Wade will be fired up tonight and even Michael Beasley might return to the court. The Bucks are a team that can score with some ease as they have a nice bench in Luke Ridnour, Ersan Ilyasova, Hakim Warrick or Jerry Stackhouse and if their starters aren't performing well, Scott Skiles won't hesitate in sending them to the bench. Bogut is on an offensive roll and the Heat will have some problems to stop him as well.
My projected line for this contest is a range of 192-195 points and in my opinion we have the proper edge to take the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 189
MIA / MIL Over 189
Pace: 95.4 (18th of 30)
Offense: 103.3 (20th of 30)
Defense: 103.6 (12th of 30)
Miami
Pace: 91.5 (28th of 30)
Offense: 106.2 (11th of 30)
Defense: 105.3 (18th of 30)
This is a home-home series as both teams have played against each other last Saturday and so it's crucial for our analysis to understand what happened in that game and in what this contest will be different.
The Bucks have defeated the Heat 95-84 and at the break they were already leading 56-38 so we can say that they didn't have any problem to beat Miami. I was expecting such outcome as I had a play with the Bucks and in my write up I said the following: "Even though it was an easy game [against the Pistons], the Heat didn't have good news after the game, as PG Mario Chalmers got injured in the game and he is doubtful for tonight and even Wade and O'Neal are banged up for tonight's contest."
The letdown happened for the Heat as they ended the game by shooting only 37.2% from the field and 6-22 behind the arc - only 27.3%. Dwayne's Wade 6-20 (.300) shooting performance was his second worst of the season. To make things even worse, Wade was in foul trouble, picking up his fifth foul midway through the third quarter and going to the bench until returning with 7:22 remaining in the game. Miami has been a terrible team in back to backs as their offense simply disappears. Note that Wade is shooting 43.1% FG in b2b games vs. 46.6% for the season or/and Jermaine O'Neal is shooting 48.0% FG in b2b games vs. 54% for the season.
Bottom line, a relatively poor defensive team of the Bucks was able to hold the Heat to just 84 points and even after the game rookie Brandon Jennings praised the team defensive performance: ``I guess we got the `D-Wade stopper' on the team right now,'' - He was talking about Charlie Bell.
However let's see if the Bucks will be able to stop the Heat tonight as they have a better spot and usually they are a terrific offensive team coming of a loss. I remember that the Over is 8-1 in the Heat last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Dwayne Wade will be fired up tonight and even Michael Beasley might return to the court. The Bucks are a team that can score with some ease as they have a nice bench in Luke Ridnour, Ersan Ilyasova, Hakim Warrick or Jerry Stackhouse and if their starters aren't performing well, Scott Skiles won't hesitate in sending them to the bench. Bogut is on an offensive roll and the Heat will have some problems to stop him as well.
My projected line for this contest is a range of 192-195 points and in my opinion we have the proper edge to take the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 189
Craig Davis
Craig Davis Monday's Lineup
30 Dime – MAVERICKS
15 Dime – OKLAHOMA STATE
MAVERICKS --- Is it just me or has the rest of the world jumped off the Dallas Mavericks bandwagon? A couple of really tough losses and now the consensus is... "the Mavs are starting to implode." To me, nothing could be further from the truth. This is still the best road team in the NBA, and for three quarters against the Suns the other night they were well on their way to another road victory. But the shooting failed them down the stretch and they dropped a tough 112-106 decision in Phoenix. Two nights later they came back home and got "Andre Millered" as the veteran point guard torched the Mavs to the tune of 52 points in an overtime, two-point win. So the Mavs drop two very close decisions and now the rest of the country is ready to back the Jazz without Carlos Boozer and possibly without AK-47. Be my guest.
There's no doubt the Mavs are a trainwreck at home ATS and you could have made a ton of money betting against them at American Airlines Arena, but when you get this team on the highway, it's a different story. The Mavs are 16-9 SU and 15-10 ATS on the road and actually have a better road record than home record. And the one stat that hit me right face when handicapping this game was the fact the Mavs haven't lost three games in a row all season. In fact, the Mavs have only had two other two-game losing streaks, and each time they bounced back on the third night with a win (vs. Phoenix and vs. OKC). I don't care what history says and I don't care that the Mavs have perennially struggled in Salt Lake City, I care that the Mavs know how to bounce back as good as any team in the NBA, and after dropping two heartbreakers in a row, I expect their best effort tonight.
Add to that the fact Dallas is healthier, playing on revenge, and getting at least four points, not to mention the fact everyone in the world is on the Jazz, I'm more than happy to back the Mavericks on the road. Top play of the day on Dallas to likely get the SU win.
OKLAHOMA STATE --- It's nearly impossible for me to NOT back a team that's perfect at home when getting points. Granted, they probably haven't beaten a team at home as good as Texas, but they've had some impressive wins and seem to be playing really good basketball right now. Forget Saturday's blowout loss at Mizzou for two reasons. First, the Tigers (much like OSU) don't lose at home. They have a home winning streak that dates back more than two years. Second, the Cowboys had to fly in a snowstorm just to get to Columbia. They barely had time to sleep or warm up, let alone play a basketball game. And after what happened to this university 10 years ago in Colorado (the dreaded plane crash), basketball was the last thing on their minds.
Now, back in the comfort of Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, the Pokes can focus on basketball and getting back in the Big 12 race. And they catch Texas at the perfect time. This Longhorns team was once #1 in the land, but since then things have gone south. And it seems like the rest of the country keeps thinking, "this is the game Texas gets back on track," yet each time out they fail to cover the number. In fact, they haven't covered in their last eight games and haven't beaten a meaningful opponent since December 22nd over Michigan State. Until Texas proves they can go on the highway and beat someone with a pulse, I'll be glad to back a home dog like Oklahoma State that hasn't lost a home game all year.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------GL GUYS
Craig Davis Monday's Lineup
30 Dime – MAVERICKS
15 Dime – OKLAHOMA STATE
MAVERICKS --- Is it just me or has the rest of the world jumped off the Dallas Mavericks bandwagon? A couple of really tough losses and now the consensus is... "the Mavs are starting to implode." To me, nothing could be further from the truth. This is still the best road team in the NBA, and for three quarters against the Suns the other night they were well on their way to another road victory. But the shooting failed them down the stretch and they dropped a tough 112-106 decision in Phoenix. Two nights later they came back home and got "Andre Millered" as the veteran point guard torched the Mavs to the tune of 52 points in an overtime, two-point win. So the Mavs drop two very close decisions and now the rest of the country is ready to back the Jazz without Carlos Boozer and possibly without AK-47. Be my guest.
There's no doubt the Mavs are a trainwreck at home ATS and you could have made a ton of money betting against them at American Airlines Arena, but when you get this team on the highway, it's a different story. The Mavs are 16-9 SU and 15-10 ATS on the road and actually have a better road record than home record. And the one stat that hit me right face when handicapping this game was the fact the Mavs haven't lost three games in a row all season. In fact, the Mavs have only had two other two-game losing streaks, and each time they bounced back on the third night with a win (vs. Phoenix and vs. OKC). I don't care what history says and I don't care that the Mavs have perennially struggled in Salt Lake City, I care that the Mavs know how to bounce back as good as any team in the NBA, and after dropping two heartbreakers in a row, I expect their best effort tonight.
Add to that the fact Dallas is healthier, playing on revenge, and getting at least four points, not to mention the fact everyone in the world is on the Jazz, I'm more than happy to back the Mavericks on the road. Top play of the day on Dallas to likely get the SU win.
OKLAHOMA STATE --- It's nearly impossible for me to NOT back a team that's perfect at home when getting points. Granted, they probably haven't beaten a team at home as good as Texas, but they've had some impressive wins and seem to be playing really good basketball right now. Forget Saturday's blowout loss at Mizzou for two reasons. First, the Tigers (much like OSU) don't lose at home. They have a home winning streak that dates back more than two years. Second, the Cowboys had to fly in a snowstorm just to get to Columbia. They barely had time to sleep or warm up, let alone play a basketball game. And after what happened to this university 10 years ago in Colorado (the dreaded plane crash), basketball was the last thing on their minds.
Now, back in the comfort of Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, the Pokes can focus on basketball and getting back in the Big 12 race. And they catch Texas at the perfect time. This Longhorns team was once #1 in the land, but since then things have gone south. And it seems like the rest of the country keeps thinking, "this is the game Texas gets back on track," yet each time out they fail to cover the number. In fact, they haven't covered in their last eight games and haven't beaten a meaningful opponent since December 22nd over Michigan State. Until Texas proves they can go on the highway and beat someone with a pulse, I'll be glad to back a home dog like Oklahoma State that hasn't lost a home game all year.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------GL GUYS
Tony George
Texas -2
Okie State will have issues on the glass tonight. They just got beat by 15 points on Saturday by the worst rebounding team in the Big 12, and Texas off a brutal OT home loss to a good Baylor team. I like Texas in Bounceback mode on national TV. The Longhorns crapped all over themselves 2 weeks ago on Big Monday at K State, I see them winning this one by 4-7 points. My overlay here 6 points, I will lay the 2 pointer. Play 1 Unit on Texas.
Texas -2
Okie State will have issues on the glass tonight. They just got beat by 15 points on Saturday by the worst rebounding team in the Big 12, and Texas off a brutal OT home loss to a good Baylor team. I like Texas in Bounceback mode on national TV. The Longhorns crapped all over themselves 2 weeks ago on Big Monday at K State, I see them winning this one by 4-7 points. My overlay here 6 points, I will lay the 2 pointer. Play 1 Unit on Texas.
